Saturday, 14 May 2011


OXAN; Excerpts; "Political Islam will become more important as the MB follows -- at some distance -- the path taken by the AKP in Turkey. It is in the West's interest to balance assistance for new non-Islamist parties with support for governments which may include the MB. Gulf and Western financial support to new or reformed regimes could help to eliminate discontent and forestall Islamic extremism.... 
Egyptian Brotherhood : In Egypt, the MB played an important role in the revolution but has not tried to lead it: Its elderly leadership believes that it will inevitably take power but is prepared to wait until the Egyptian people are ready to give it. There is a battle, which will be replicated elsewhere, between these old men and a younger leadership that wants the MB to turn itself into a modern political party and contest more vigorously for power... They regard the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey as a model even though they think it has gone too far in softening its Islamic ideology to win mass support.

Salafist revival :... Salafis are not very numerous but can be influential in some localities in Upper Egypt and the suburbs of major cities, often in places where there are Coptic Christian communities. They appear to have been behind the attacks on Copts since the revolution... ... There have been demonstrations in Zarqa in Jordan, which has been a centre for Salafism, but here too it has few followers. In Yemen, Salafi groups that in the past were co-opted by the regime (many mainstream Salafis want regimes to change their policies and do not seek their overthrow ...  The Arab Spring may well be followed by a prolonged summer of disappointment which could lead to further unrest that is unlikely to benefit the moderate and largely secular leaders of the revolution. The MBs, renowned for their patience, may feel they can wait, while the Salafis will be able to exploit the grievances to win people to their cause. It would seem to be in the interests of the new regimes to involve the MBs in government so that they share the responsibility for change and the blame if it fails.  Western reluctance to deal with regimes led by Islamists -- who may be less ready to respond to Western regional political objectives -- could risk prolonging the summer of disappointment. By contrast, financial and economic support from the West and Gulf states to new or reformed regimes to help eliminate economic and social causes of discontent could forstall a revival of Islamic extremism. The West is likely to seek to support new secular parties, but faces the challenge of doing so without angering the MB." 
Posted by G, M, Z, or B at 1:54 PM
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian

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