“There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.”
― John Adams, Letter to Jonathan Jackson, October 1780
- As it stands today, the most likely scenario is that Hillary Clinton will win the general election. While Donald Trump has continued to improve in the popular vote, the electoral college map, because of his major problems among key demographics and battleground states, while possible, remains very difficult for him.
- Here are the most striking, historic numbers: 58. 55. 65. What are they?
a. 58% of respondents are dissatisfied with the current group of Republican and Democratic candidates for President.
b. 55% of respondents favor having an independent presidential ticket in 2016.
A shocking 91% of voters under the age of 29 favor having an independent candidate on the ballot.
c. 65% of respondents are at least somewhat, pretty or very willing to support a candidate for President, who is not Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
- In a ballot test against Clinton and Trump, a truly independent candidate starts off with 21% of the vote.
This number increases to 29% in the “Big Sky” region, 30% in “New England” and 28% in the “West” region.
Among voters with an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Clinton, the independent actually wins the ballot test:
- Both major candidates continue to have historically high negative name ID.
a. 56% of voters have an unfavorable impression of Hillary Clinton.
Among males, her unfavorable number is 64%
Among Republicans, her unfavorable number is 78%
Among Independents, her unfavorable number is 57%
b. 55% of voters have an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump.
Among women, his unfavorable number is 60%
Among Democrats, his unfavorable number is 71%
Among Independents, his unfavorable number is 58%