Wednesday, 25 January 2017
Iraq Dialogue …. The start of politics حوار العراق… بداية السياسة
يناير 24, 2017
Written by Nasser Kandil,
When a conference held in Iraq under the name of the dialogue, and in which the President of the Republic participated to grant it the protocol legitimacy, and when the Prime Minister, and the Speaker of the parliament participated in a speech without compliments, and in which the political and the sectarian components involved to express publically their concerns and obsessions, and when the representatives of the Kurdistan region attend talking frankly about the self-determination and the secession, then this means that it is a public dialogue not a media manifestation that celebrates the victory of Mosul which is about to enter the crucial stage, and when you are invited to participate in this dialogue to attend, to witness, to ask , and to communicate then you have to witness that the Iraqis have surprised you that they started politics in its deep meaning, in a way that surpasses the narrow limits of managing the authoritarian interests and the competition on sharing them. So the necessary expression must be first for the sponsor of the Dialogue the Deputy Speaker of the Parliament and the Head of the Iraqi Institute for the dialogue of thought; Sheikh Dr. Humam Hamoudi who has succeeded away from circulating his name as one of the figures of the politics-making in reserving a seat among the professional policy-makers.
In politics, it is clear that each of the main participants have recorded through his participation his interest by leaving his imprint in the success of the project of the internal settlement which is in circulation, through the attempt of reconciling between democracy that depends on voting and produces according to the Iraqi demography fears of the dominance of Shiites on the political and procedural decision, and a consonance that does not disable the mechanism of the country , confines it and abolishes the democracy, but those important players did not forget scoring points in the major conflict that is about to launch, its title is the Iraq’s Parliament 2018 which will be an image of new balances, but it will draw the new image of Iraq.
Politics and scoring points are present; it is clear from the words of Al-Abadi his announcement of the transition from the position of the Prime Minister in a way that is closer to proxy, to become a player who aspires to stay in the arena with the same position, a project of a future Prime Minister with a political speech, its basis is the success in liberating the Iraqi provinces which are under the control of ISIS and restoring them to the Iraqi sovereignty, in addition to his sponsorship of helping the army to get up from the setback of Mosul, targeting the political sect with a symbolism that targets whom he considers them rooted competitors in the political game, at their forefront the former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, thus the supporters of Al-Maliki responded by saying; that the popular crowd which took upon itself the accomplishment and which was the most prominent party and has protected Baghdad and has paved the way for the reformation of the army has moved on before the new government, where Al Maliki was at the forefront of its sponsors. The problem with Al Abadi was that he has returned the Americans whom were brought out of Iraq by Al Maliki, while Mr. Ammar Al Hakim the Head of the National Alliance for which Al Maliki will belong, and which took over the responsibility of nominating Al Abadi clarified that the seven points which presented by Al Abadi are the alliance project, and that the crowd has been formed by the fatwa of reference and the alliance’s decision. During the dialogue and the communication the Speaker of the Parliament Salim Al Jabouri as the most powerful representative of Sunni participated by saying that the formation of the Iraqi scene within the multiple regions alone ensures the settlement. The Kurds at the spokesman of Barham Saleh announced their sticking to the right of determining the till the secession.
This wide area of the political engagement seems closer to the entry into the serious politics instead of being a division project. The sharp political conflict is waged this time carefully in order not to fall into the traps that make the victory on ISIS a political paper inside the Shiite house, since the popular crowd is a common investment that its assets cannot be distributed, or make this victory a gateway for the exit of the Sunni leaderships from the position of the defeated. The experience has taught all, now they are professing what they have learnt. The emergence of ISIS has showed the Sunnis that the strike of politics do not leave them immune from the dangers of who targets Iraq, even when it makes the title of its war sectarian. The Sunnis have spent high cost for the expansion of ISIS in provinces most of them are from them. Their leaders know how to deal with the disputes under the roof of the quest for consensus, not linking it with the regional variables that strengthen the positions of the countries which present themselves as sponsor for them as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It became clear their inability to adjust the balances in their favor in the light of the war of Syria, as it is clear that they adapt themselves through their special considerations with the other regional involved in Iraq, not through the Iraqis’ considerations. The Shiite leaders disclose that they learnt the meaning of depriving ISIS from the incubating background, the importance not to neglect what is going on in the Sunni arena, and to be sufficient with the legitimacy of having control over the power according to the simple equations of democracy. Both of Mr. Ammar Al-Hakim and Al Sheikh Humam Hamoudi ensure in explaining the philosophy of the historical settlement which searches in the equation of the balance the need to comply with the need of democracy, while the Kurdish speech about the self-determination does not disturb anyone, so Adel Abdul Mahdi Barham Saleh replied that the Kurds do not want the secession and its circumstances are not mature yet, but when the opposite happens no one will wait our approval. The attendance of the Kurds in Baghdad’s Dialogue is a sign that neither they want nor the circumstances have got mature. Therefore the recalling is a political negotiation and everyone is ready and willing of that negotiation.
The determination and the openness are available, they are main conditions but not sufficient. The difficult equation between the consensus and the democracy is known by the Lebanese people that it is not just a desire. The Iraqis bet on the Saudi understanding and responding to the settlement requirements as they did in Lebanon, but they do not have yet enough signals, while Iran has a high representation through the Chairman of the Commission of the Foreign Affairs in Al Shura Council Alaeddin Broujerdi to say that it blesses, and the Chairman of the Commission of the Foreign Affairs in the Egyptian and the Jordanian Parliaments attend to say that we are awaiting, but this is not enough.
The big question which is faced by the Iraqi Dialogue is how Iraq is not a playground, since through its size, wealth, and its geographical position cannot be outside the attention, so in order not to be a playground it must be a player, and this means to have a clear position in the regional geography, not to be afraid of identifying the compass of its security between a concept that sees Israel as a source of danger, and a concept which sees the danger from Iran, and not to be afraid also from the engagement in forming a security economical bilateral with Syria that is imposed by the challenges, risks, interests, and roles, because without the first part is an internal confusion and variations, and without the second part is a red US line. So will the Iraqis wage the risks through these two issues? Or will the American and the Saudi precede them to cope with the settlements, and thus the complexities will be easy? Or will ISIS precede all and target Saudi Arabia?
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,