Saturday 14 September 2019

Government Bestows an Honor to the Butcher of Al Khiyam: Al-Akhbar الدولة تكرّم جزّار الخيام


Fakhoury2
September 14, 2019
Few days ago, Amer Elias Al Fakhoury, the former military commander of Al Khiyam detention center, arrived in Beirut through its airport.
Al Fakhoury was responsible for a battalion of Antoine Lahad militia agents who guarded Al Khiyam detention center, suppressed the detainees and tortured them brutally.
Al Fakhoury, 56, is from southern Lebanon. He claimed that after a dispute with his bosses, he left Lebanon to the United States in 1998 through Palestine. He was known for his abduction, incarceration and torturing at the Center. Al Fakhoury was the head of the Center with the Chief of Security and Investigation Jean Al Homsi (Abo Nabil) who were directly supervised by the Israeli Intelligence.
Last week, the General Security Commander, checking Beirut arrivals’ passports at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, observed that the American passport holder Amer Elias Al Fakhoury has been wanted for arrest. However, audits showed that the detention order was withdrawn. In a default judgment, Al Fakhoury was sentenced to 15 years in jail with hard labor, in addition to the arrest warrants in abduction and rape crimes and non-judicial arrest warrants issued by the Lebanese Army (in the cable no. 303). All the aforementioned provisions were withdrawn, which means that the General Security is unable to arrest Al Fakhoury since there’s no judicial decision. What should be done? The General Security chief has the power of anyone’s papers. Al Fakhoury was allowed to enter the country after keeping his passport.
Who mended Al Fakhoury’s status whom Al Khiyam detention center freed detainees say he’s responsible for all the torture they were subjected to at the center, not to mention their arrest. Who is the secret authority who allowed the withdrawal of all the arrest warrants issued against him? “Al Akhbar” newspaper was told yesterday that due to the passage of 20 years on issuing them, the verdicts against him had been dropped.
Well, what about the arrest warrants the Army issues? Who ordered annulling them? The answer may carry a scandal. Yesterday, Al Fakhoury was escorted with a Brigadier wearing his military uniform to the General Security office in Beirut!
Did the Brigadier volunteer by himself to help Al Fakhoury without the knowledge of his commanders? Why is they dealing with leniency with such security, humanitarian and legal dangerous issue? Despite of the inability to be issued by judicial decision, the cable number 303 forms an “above-legal” protection of national security in the issues of dealing with the Israeli enemy. So, why is the wavering when dealing with this case particularly?
Many questions are raised with no specific answers. An enough evidence that indicates the significance of Al Fakhoury is that when asking about the facts of his return to Beirut, a security official wanted to know his place to detain him, then discovered that the former agent returned legally by a ‘superior’ decision.
The law in Lebanon doesn’t allow the detention of Al Fakhoury 20 years after his sentence was issued. But, why couldn’t he been prevented from returning to the country he betrayed? Why wasn’t he expelled? This should be the least thing to be done in honor of his victims instead of the ‘honor’ he bestowed.
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President Macron’s amazing admission



President Macron’s amazing admission
September 11, 2019
[this column was written for the Unz Review]
I don’t know whether the supposedly Chinese curse really comes from China, but whether it does or not, we most certainly are cursed with living in some truly interesting times: Iran won the first phase of the “tanker battle” against the AngloZionistsPutin offered to sell Russian hypersonic missiles to Trump (Putin has been trolling western leaders a lot lately) while Alexander Lukashenko took the extreme measure of completely shutting down the border between the Ukraine and Belarus due to the huge influx of weapons and nationalist extremists from the Ukraine. As he put it himself “if weapons fall into the hands of ordinary people and especially nationalist-minded people, wait for terrorism“. He is quite right, of course. Still, there is a sweet irony here, or call it karma if you prefer, but for the Ukronazis who promised their people a visa-free entrance into the EU (for tourism only, and if you have money to spend, but still…), and yet 5 years into that obscene experiment of creating a rabidly russophobic Ukraine and 100 days (or so) into Zelenskii’s presidency, we have the Ukraine’s closest and most supportive neighbor forced to totally shut down its border due to the truly phenomenal toxicity of the Ukrainian society! But, then again, the Ukraine is such a basket-case that we can count on “most interesting” things (in the sense of the Chinese curse, of course) happening there too.
[Sidebar: interestingly, one of the people the Ukrainians gave up in this exchange was Vladimir Tsemakh, a native of the Donbass who was kidnapped by the Ukie SBU in Novorussia (our noble “Europeans” did not object to such methods!) and declared the “star witness” against Russia in the MH-17 (pseudo-)investigation. Even more pathetic is that the Dutch apparently fully endorsed this load of crapola. Finally, and just for a good laugh, check out how the infamous’ Bellincat presented Tsemakh. And then, suddenly, everybody seem to “forget” that “star witness” and now the Ukies have sent him to Russia. Amazing how fast stuff gets lost in the collective western memory hole…]
Right now there seems to be a tug of war taking place between the more mentally sane elements of the Zelenskii administration and the various nationalist extremists in the SBU, deathsquads and even regular armed forces. Thus we see these apparently contradictory developments taking place: on on hand, the Ukraine finally agreed to a prisoner swap with Russia (a painful one for Russia as Russia mostly traded real criminals, including a least two bona fide Ukie terrorist, against what are mostly civilian hostages, but Putin decided – correctly I think – that freeing Russian nationalists from Ukie jails was more important in this case) while on the other hand, the Ukronazi armed forces increased their shelling, even with 152mm howitzers which fire 50kg high explosive fragmentation shells, against the Donbass. Whatever may be the case, this prisoner swap, no matter how one-sided and unfair, is a positive development which might mark the beginning of a pragmatic and less ideological attitude in Kiev.
Urkoterrorists Sentsov and Kol’chenko
Some very cautious beginnings of a little hint of optimism might be in order following that exchange, but the big stuff seems to be scheduled for the meeting of the Normandy Group (NG), probably in France. So far, the Russians have made it very clear that they will not meet just for the hell of meeting, and that the only circumstance in which the Russians will agree to a NG meeting would be if it has good chances of yielding meaningful results which, translated from Russian diplomatic language simply means “if/when Kiev stops stonewalling and sabotaging everything”. Specifically, the Russians are demanding that Zelenskii commit in writing to the so-called “Steinmeier formula” and that the Ukrainian forces withdraw from the line of contact. Will that happen? Maybe. We shall soon find out.
But the single most amazing event of the past couple of weeks was the absolutely astonishing speech French President Emmanuel Macron made in front of an assembly of ambassadors. I could not find the full speech translated into English (I may have missed it somewhere), so I will post the crucial excerpts in French and translate them myself. If I find a full, official, translation I will post it under this column ASAP. For the time being, this is the link to the full speech transcript in French:
Let’s immediately begin with some of the most incredible excerpts, emphasis added by me: (sorry for the long quote but, truly, each word counts!)
L’ordre international est bousculé de manière inédite mais surtout avec, si je puis dire, un grand bouleversement qui se fait sans doute pour la première fois dans notre histoire à peu près dans tous les domaines, avec une magnitude profondément historique. C’est d’abord une transformation, une recomposition géopolitique et stratégique. Nous sommes sans doute en train de vivre la fin de l’hégémonie occidentale sur le monde. Nous nous étions habitués à un ordre international qui depuis le 18ème siècle reposait sur une hégémonie occidentale, vraisemblablement française au 18ème siècle, par l’inspiration des Lumières ; sans doute britannique au 19ème grâce à la révolution industrielle et raisonnablement américaine au 20ème grâce aux 2 grands conflits et à la domination économique et politique de cette puissance. Les choses changent. Et elles sont profondément bousculées par les erreurs des Occidentaux dans certaines crises, par les choix aussi américains depuis plusieurs années et qui n’ont pas commencé avec cette administration mais qui conduisent à revisiter certaines implications dans des conflits au Proche et Moyen-Orient et ailleurs, et à repenser une stratégie profonde, diplomatique et militaire, et parfois des éléments de solidarité dont nous pensions qu’ils étaient des intangibles pour l’éternité même si nous avions constitué ensemble dans des moments géopolitiques qui pourtant aujourd’hui ont changé. Et puis c’est aussi l’émergence de nouvelles puissances dont nous avons sans doute longtemps sous-estimé l’impact. La Chine au premier rang mais également la stratégie russe menée, il faut bien le dire, depuis quelques années avec plus de succès. J’y reviendrai. L’Inde qui émerge, ces nouvelles économies qui deviennent aussi des puissances pas seulement économiques mais politiques et qui se pensent comme certains ont pu l’écrire, comme de véritables États civilisations et qui viennent non seulement bousculer notre ordre international, qui viennent peser dans l’ordre économique mais qui viennent aussi repenser l’ordre politique et l’imaginaire politique qui va avec, avec beaucoup de force et beaucoup plus d’inspiration que nous n’en avons. Regardons l’Inde, la Russie et la Chine. Elles ont une inspiration politique beaucoup plus forte que les Européens aujourd’hui. Elles pensent le monde avec une vraie logique, une vraie philosophie, un imaginaire que nous avons un peu perdu
Here is my informal translation of these words:
The international order is being shaken in an unprecedented manner, above all with, if I may say so, by the great upheaval that is undoubtedly taking place for the first time in our history, in almost every field and with a profoundly historic magnitude. The first thing we observe is a major transformation, a geopolitical and strategic re-composition. We are undoubtedly experiencing the end of Western hegemony over the world. We were accustomed to an international order which, since the 18th century, rested on a Western hegemony, mostly French in the 18th century, by the inspiration of the Enlightenment; then mostly British in the 19th century thanks to the Industrial Revolution and, finally, mostly American in the 20th century thanks to the 2 great conflicts and the economic and political domination of this power. Things change. And they are now deeply shaken by the mistakes of Westerners in certain crises, by the choices that have been made by Americans for several years which did not start with this administration, but which lead to revisiting certain implications in conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, and to rethinking a deep, diplomatic and military strategy, and sometimes elements of solidarity that we thought were intangible for eternity, even if we had constituted together in geopolitical moments that have changed. And then there is the emergence of new powers whose impact we have probably underestimated for a long time. China is at the forefront, but also the Russian strategy, which has, it must be said, been pursued more successfully in recent years. I will come back to that. India that is emerging, these new economies that are also becoming powers not only economic but political and that think themselves, as some have written, as real “civilizational states” which now come not only to shake up our international order but who also come to weigh in on the economic order and to rethink the political order and the political imagination that goes with it, with much dynamism and much more inspiration than we have. Look at India, Russia and China. They have a much stronger political inspiration than Europeans today. They think about our planet with a true logic, a true philosophy, an imagination that we’ve lost a little bit.
Now let’s unpack these key statements one by one:
1) “ great upheaval that is undoubtedly taking place for the first time in our history in almost every field and with a profoundly historic magnitude”
Here Macron sets the stage for some truly momentous observations: what will be discussed next is not only a major event, but one without precedent in history (whether French or European). Furthermore, what will be discussed next, affects “almost every field” and with huge historical implications.
2) “We are undoubtedly experiencing the end of Western hegemony over the world”
When I read that, my first and rather infantile reaction was to exclaim “really?! No kiddin’?! Who would have thought!?” After all, some of us have been saying that for a long, long while, but never-mind that. What is important is that even a Rothschild-puppet like Macron had to finally speak these words. Oh sure, he probably felt as happy as the Captain of the Titanic when he had to (finally!) order a general evacuation of this putatively unsinkable ship, but nonetheless – he did do it. From now on, the notion of the end of the western hegemony on the planet is no more relegated to what the leaders of the Empire and their propaganda machine like to call “fringe extremists” and has now fully entered the (supposedly) “respectable” and “mainstream” public discourse. This is a huge victory for all of us who have been saying the same things for years already.
3) “by the mistakes of Westerners in certain crises, by the choices that have been made by Americans for several years”
Here, again, I feel like engaging in some petty self-congratulation and want to say “I told you that too!”, but that would really be infantile, would it not? But yeah, while the internal contradictions of western materialism in general, and of AngloZionist Capitalism specifically, have been catching up with the Western World and while an eventual catastrophic crisis was inevitable, it also sure is true that western leaders mostly did it to themselves; at the very least, they dramatically accelerated these processes. In this context, I would single out the following politicians for a nomination to a medal for exceptional service in the destruction of the western hegemony over our long-suffering planet: Donald Trump and Barak Obama, of course, but also François Hollande and Emmanuel Macron (yes, he too even if he now changes his tune!), Angela Merkel, of course, and then last but not least, every single British Prime Minister since Margaret Thatcher (maybe with special commendation for Teresa May). Who knows, maybe they were all KGB/GRU/SVR agents after all? (just kiddin’!)
4) “ the emergence of new powers whose impact we have probably underestimated for a long time. China is at the forefront, but also the Russian strategy, which has, it must be said, been pursued more successfully in recent years”
Next, it’s not only China. Russia too is a major competitor, and a very successful one at that, hence the admission that in spite of all the efforts of the AngloZionist elites not only did the Empire not succeed in breaking Russia, but Russia has been very successful in defeating the western efforts. To those interested, I highly recommend this article by Jon Hellevig on the true state of the Russian economy. Finally, in military terms, Russia has achieved more than parity. In fact, I would argue that at least in terms of quality the Russian armed forces are ahead in several crucial technologies (hypersonic missiles, air defenses, electronic warfare etc.) even while she still lags behind in other technologies (mostly truly obsolete things like aircraft carriers). But most crucial is the political victory of Russia: five years after the Euromaidan and the liberation of Crimea from the Nazi yoke, the USA is far more isolated than Russia. It’s comical, really!
5) “real “civilizational states” which now come not only to shake up our international order
I have been speaking about a unique, and very distinct, “Russian civilizational realm” in many of my writings and I am quite happy to see Macron using almost the same words. Of course, Macron did not only mean Russia here, but also India and China. Still, and although the Russian nation is much younger than the one of China or, even more so India, 1000 years of Russian civilization does deserve to be listed next to these two other giants of world history. And what is absolutely certain is that China and India could never build the new international order they want without Russia, at least for the foreseeable future. In spite of all the very real progress made recently by the Chinese armed forces (and, to a lesser degree, also the Indian ones), Russia still remains a much stronger military power than China. What Russia, China and India are, is that they are all former empires which have given up on imperialism and who know only aspire to be powerful, but nevertheless “normal” nations. Just by their size and geography, these are “un-invadable” countries who all present a distinct model of development and who want a multi-polar international order which would allow them to safely achieve their goals. In other words, Macron understands that the future international order will be dictated by China, Russia and India and not by any combination of western powers. Quite an admission indeed!
6) “ Look at India, Russia and China. They have a much stronger political inspiration than Europeans today. They think about our planet with a true logic, a true philosophy, an imagination that we’ve lost a little bit.”
This is the “core BRICS” challenge to the Empire: China and Russia have already established what the Chinese call a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for the New Era”. If they can now extend this kind of informal but extremely profound partnership (I think of it as “symbiotic”) to India next, then the BRICS will have a formidable future (especially after the Brazilian people give the boot to Bolsonaro and his US patrons). Should that fail and should India chose to remain outside this unique relationship, then the SCO will become the main game in town. And yes, Macron is spot on: China and, especially, Russia have a fundamentally different worldview and, unlike the western one, theirs does have “much stronger political” goals (Macron used the word “aspirations”), “a real philosophy and imagination” which the West has lost, and not just a “little bit” but, I would argue, completely. But one way or the other, and for the first time in 1000 years, the future of our planet will not be decided anywhere in the West, not in Europe (old or “new”), but in Asia, primarily by the Russian-Chinese alliance. As I explained here, the AngloZionist Empire is probably the last one in history, definitely the last western one.
Now we should not be naïve here, Macron did not suddenly find religion, grow a conscience or suddenly become an expert on international relations. There is, of course, a cynical reason why he is changing his tune. In fact, there are several such reasons. First, it appears that the on and off bromance between Macron and Trump is over. Second, all of Europe is in free fall socially, economically and, of course, politically. And with a total nutcase in power in London dealing with Brexit and with Angela Merkel’s apparently never-ending political agony, it is only logical for a French head of state to try to step in. Furthermore, while I have always said that Russia is not part of Europe culturally and spiritually, Russia is very much part of Europe geographically, economically and politically and there is simply no way for any imaginable alliance of European states to save Europe from its current predicament without Russian help. Like it or not, that is a fact, irrespective of whether politician or commentator X, Y or Z realizes this or not. Macron probably figured out that the so-called “East Europeans” are nothing but cheap prostitutes doing whatever Uncle Shmuel wants them to do, Germany is collapsing under the weight of Merkel’s “brilliant” immigration policy while the UK under BoJo is busy trying to self-destruct at least as fast as the USA under Trump. Macron is right. If united, Russia and France could build a much safer Europe than the one we see slowly and painfully dying before our eyes today. But he is also wrong if he thinks that Russia can be “re-invited” back into the AngloZionist sphere of influence. In that context, Putin’s reply to the question of whether Russia was willing to return to the G8 is very telling: first he said that if the G7 wants to come back to Russia, Putin would welcome that, but then he also added that the G7/8 is useless without, yes, you guessed it, China and India.
It will be interesting to see if the current G7 will ever agree to mutate into a new G10 which would make Russia, China and India the most powerful block (or voting group) of this new forum. I personally doubt it very much, but then they are becoming desperate and Macron’s words seem to be indicating that this option is at least being discussed behind closed doors. Frankly, considering how quickly the G7 is becoming utterly irrelevant, I expect it to be gradually phased out and replaced by the (objectively much more relevant) G20.
Finally, there are Trump’s efforts into getting Russia back into the G8 which are very transparently linked to the current trade war and geostrategic competition between the US and China. The offer is useless to Russia, just like the return to PACE, but Russia does not want to needlessly offend anybody and that is why Putin did not publicly rebuff Trump or directly refuse to come to Miami: instead, he approved of the general concept, but offered a better way to go about it. Typical Putin.
Conclusion: Macron reads the writing on the wall
Whatever his political motives to say what he said, Macron is no idiot and neither are his advisors. Neither is this a “one off” thing. The French meant every word Macron spoke and they are putting everybody on notice (including the Ukrainians, the US, the EU and the Russians, of course). In fact, Macron has already invited Putin to participate in a Normandy Format meeting in Paris in the very near future. If that meeting eventually does take place, this will mean that the organizers gave Putin guarantees that this will not just be the usual kaffeeklatsch and that some serious results will finally be obtained. That, in turn, means that somebody – probably the French – will have the unpleasant task of telling the Ukrainians that the party is over and that they now need to get their act together and start implementing the Minsk Agreements, something which Zelenskii might or might not try to do, but which the real gun-toting Ukronazis will never accept. Thus, if the West is really serious about forcing Kiev to abide by the Mink Agreements, then the West has to finally give-up its self-defeating russophobic hysteria and substantially change their tone about the Ukraine. To invite Putin to Paris just to tell him again that Russia (which is not even a party to the Minsk Agreements) “must do more” makes zero sense. Therefore, all the other parties will have to come to terms with reality before inviting Putin. Apparently, this might be happening in Paris. As for Trump, he just offered to mediate (if asked to do so) between Russia and the Ukraine.
It shall be extremely interesting to see if this Normandy Format meeting does actually take place and what role, if any, Trump and the USA will play behind the scenes. We shall then know if Macron’s epiphany was just a one-time fluke or not.
PS: the latest rumor from the Ukraine: Zelenskii supporters are saying that Poroshenko is preparing a coup against Zelenskii and that he is preparing a special force of Ukronazi deathsquads to execute that coup. Dunno about a real coup, but they have already blocked the Rada. Never a dull moment indeed… 

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SYRIAN ARMY SHELLS TURKISH POST IN SOUTHERN IDLIB



Syrian Army Shells Turkish Post In Southern Idlib
A Turkish army tank stationed near the Syrian border, in Suruc, Turkey, Sept. 3, 2016. (AP Photo)
14.09.2019
A Turkish army tank stationed near the Syrian border, in Suruc, Turkey, Sept. 3, 2016. (AP Photo)
Late on September 13, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) shelled the newly-established Turkish military post in the southern Idlib countryside, according to several opposition activists.
The activists said that a shell fired by the army’s artillery hit a berm surrounding the post, which is located near Maar Hattat. The town is a few kilometers to south of the city Ma`arat al-Nu`man that was shelled with heavy rockets a few hours ago.
In the morning, the Turkish military reinforced etoMaar Hattat’s post with a convoy consisting of more than 30 vehicles, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
Unlike the twelve Turkish observation post surrounding Greater Idlib, Maar Hattat’s post was not agreed upon during the Astana talks. The post was established last month following the SAA advance in northern Hama.
Turkey’s Ministry of National Defence has not commented on the shelling, yet. Ankara usually ignore the attacks that don’t result in any causalities.
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Drone Attacks Spark Fire at 2 Saudi Aramco Oil Plants



In its statement, Yemen’s Armed forces claimed responsibility for the drone operation on two oil facilities of Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco in the country’s east, which caused huge fires before dawn on Saturday.
The spokesman for Yemeni Armed Forces, Brigadier General Yahya Saree, said in a statement on Saturday, “The Air Force carried out an operation – dubbed ‘Operation Balance of Deterrence 2’ – of a 10-drone squadron on two Saudi Aramco plants in Abqaiq and Khurais”.
General Saree said that the operation was accurate and direct, pointing out that “the targeting of Abqaiq and Khurais plants comes within the framework of the legitimate and natural response to the crimes of the Saudi aggression”.
The Yemeni Armed forces spokesman promised the regime in Saudi Arabia, “that our future operations will expand and be more painful as long as its aggression and blockade continue”.
Relatedly, Yemen’s Minister of Tourism Ahmed al-Ali in an interview with the Lebanon-based Arabic language al-Mayadeen TV assured that no civilians were harmed saying, “we have not targeted any civilian targets in Saudi Arabia; strategic facilities were targeted”.
Abqaiq, about 60 km [37 miles] southwest of Dhahran in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, contains the world’s largest oil processing plant. Most Saudi oil exported from the Gulf is processed there.
The incident comes nearly a month after Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Shaybah, the kingdom’s largest strategic oil reserve near the UAE border, were targeted by Yemeni forces in a major drone operation.

Drone Attacks Spark Fire at 2 Saudi Aramco Oil Plants

Drone Attacks Spark Fire at 2 Saudi Aramco Oil Plants
Drones have hit two oil facilities of Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco in the country’s east, causing huge fires before dawn on Saturday.
A spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s interior ministry said in a statement that the attacks targeted two Aramco factories in Abqaiq and Khurais.
The statement did not identify the source of the attack, but Ansarullah revolutionaries and their allies in Yemen’s army have carried out similar attacks in recent months in retaliation for the kingdom’s airstrikes in the impoverished nation.
Meanwhile, the spokesman for Yemeni Armed Forces, Brigadier General Yahya Saree announced that Yemeni forces will be issuing a statement in the coming hours about details of the largest Yemeni Air Forces operation into the depth of Saudi Arabia.
Abqaiq, about 60 km [37 miles] southwest of Dhahran in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, contains the world’s largest oil processing plant. Most Saudi oil exported from the Gulf is processed there.
The incident comes nearly a month after Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Shaybah, the kingdom’s largest strategic oil reserve near the UAE border, were targeted by Yemeni forces in a major drone attack.
Yemeni forces also launched a successful raid on a major pipeline spanning the kingdom in May.
The Saudi-led war has so far turned into a quagmire for Riyadh, with Yemeni forces increasingly using sophisticated weaponry in retaliatory operations. The UAE, Saudi Arabia’s most notable partner in the conflict, has consequently announced the gradual withdrawal of its troops from country, largely because it believes the war has become “unwinnable”, according to US reports.
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لا تغيير في نهج ترامب أميركا أولاً… والانسحاب سيّد الموقف!



سبتمبر 14, 2019

,

محمد صادق الحسيني

إنّ أيّ تحليل عميق لنهج الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب، ومنذ أن بدأ حملته الانتخابية التي أوصلته الى البيت الابيض، لا يمكن إلا أن يؤكد عدم ميله ترامب الى إنشاء ادارة أميركية قوية، كتلك الإدارات الأميركية السابقة والمتماسكة والتي كانت تعمل كمحرك، تنسجم جميع مكوناته، في إنجاز عمل متكامل، عبر نسق من الآليات، خدمة لمصلحة الامن القومي الأميركي في العالم، بل إنّ ما يصبو اليه هو تحقيق رؤية ترامب لمصلحة الامن القومي الأميركي والمعروفة للجميع.

إنها باختصار شديد:

1. التركيز على الوضع الداخلي الأميركي، وإعادة إحياء الاقتصاد والبنى التحتية المتهالكة، في الولايات المتحدة.

2. إعادة التركيز على ضرورة العودة الى مبدأ الرأسمالية المنتجة الصناعية والحدّ من تغوُل رأسمالية المضاربات أسواق البورصات التي يسيطر عليها اليهود .

3. تخفيض الإنفاق العام للدولة وذلك لتوفير الأموال اللازمة للاستثمارات الضرورية للنهوض بالاقتصاد وخلق فرص عمل جديدة إلى جانب تحسين قدرات الولايات المتحدة التنافسية في الأسواق الدولية، لضمان فرص أفضل لمواجهة الصين على الصعيد الاقتصادي والتجاري، حالياً ومستقبلاً.

من هنا قام الرئيس ترامب بالتخلي عن كلّ من عارض توجهاته الشخصية، لتحقيق رؤية ترامب المشار اليها أعلاه، منذ وصل البيت الأبيض حتى الآن. وكان آخر من طرد من المركب هو مستشار الأمن القومي لترامب، جون بولتون، أحد أكثر المحافظين الجدد تطرفاً والصديق اللصيق لنتنياهو، وداعية الحرب ضدّ إيران وروسيا وكوريا الشمالية وفنزويلا وكلّ من يعارض توجهاته العدوانية الخطيرة، والتي يمثلها تيار بعينه في الولايات المتحدة الأميركية.

انطلاقاً من انّ إدارة ترامب ليست إدارة أميركية كلاسيكية ذات استراتيجية واضحة، وبالتالي تعتمد في تنفيذها على أدوات محدّدة، فإننا نرى انّ الرئيس ترامب قد أعطى كلّ واحد من مراكز القوى في الولايات المتحدة ما يريد تقريباً.

فهو أعطى سماسرة الحروب والدولة العميقة، بما فيها البنتاغون، دعاة الحرب بولتون وبومبيو. كما أعطى اللوبيات اليهودية، في الولايات المتحدة، كلّ ما طلبه نتنياهو، من صفقة القرن الى كلّ الأدوار التفضيلية في كلّ المجالات.

ولكنه في الوقت نفسه انتظر موسم الحصاد. فإذا به موسماً لم ينتج شيئاً، حيث إنّ جميع مشاريع الحروب، التي كان يديرها دعاة الحرب، قد فشلت تماماً. لم تسقط الدولة السورية ولم يتمّ القضاء على حزب الله والمقاومة الفلسطينية في غزة وهزم مشروع داعش، في العراق وسورية وبمساعدة إيران قبل أيّ كان. كما هزم المشروع السعودي في اليمن على الرغم من مرور خمس سنوات على أكثر حروب البشرية وحشية وإجراماً، مورست ضدّ شعب أعزل ومسالم ودون أيّ مسوغ.

اما أمّ الهزائم فهي هزيمة دعاة الحرب في المواجهة الدائرة مع إيران، سواء على الصعيد الاقتصادي او على الصعيد العسكري، بعد إسقاط طائرة التجسّس الأميركية العملاقة وعدم قيام الرئيس الأميركي بالردّ على إسقاطها، ما جعل جون بولتون يلجأ الى مؤامرة احتجاز ناقلة النفط الإيرانية، بالتعاون مع بعض غلاة الساسة في واشنطن ولندن، على أمل ان يتمكن هؤلاء من توريط الرئيس الأميركي في حرب مع إيران.

اما في ما يتعلق بشريك بولتون في التآمر والكذب، نتنياهو، فلم تكن نتائج مؤامراتة وألاعيبة ومسرحياته أفضل حظاً من ممارسات بولتون. نفذ اعتداءات جوية على سورية ولبنان والعراق وأخذ كلّ ما أراد من الرئيس الأميركي. صفقة القرن، بما فيها من نقل السفارة الأميركية الى القدس والاعتراف بالمدينة عاصمة لـ»إسرائيل» وصولاً الى الاعتراف بسيادتها على الجولان.

ولكن الرئيس الأميركي تيقن من انّ نتيجة كلّ ذلك هو صفر. حيث أَمر نتنياهو، بصفته وزيراً للحرب، جيشه بترك الحدود مع لبنان والانسحاب مسافة سبعة كيلومترات الى الخلف. أيّ انّ جيشه ليس قادراً حتى على حماية نفسه من هجمات محدودة من قوات حزب الله.

فماذا كان قرار ترامب على ضوء كل هذه الحقائق؟

أ وقف الاتصالات الهاتفية مع نتنياهو، على الرغم من مواصلة الأخير استجداء ذلك، منذ اكثر من أسبوعين.

ب إعلان الرئيس الأميركي أنه سيبدأ مفاوضات سرية، مع أنصار الله اليمنيين، في عُمان.

ج تأكيده عشرات المرات على رغبته في التفاوض مع إيران وتعيينه الجنرال مارك إِسبر وزيراً للدفاع والذي أعلن في تصريح تلفزيوني أنه لا يريد حرباً مع إيران وإنما يريد الوصول الى حلّ دبلوماسي للخلاف.

د طرده لجون بولتون من البيت الأبيض ووضعه لمايك بومبيو على لائحة الانتظار، والذي لن يطول انتظاره اكثر من ثلاثة أشهر. ربما حتى نهاية شهر تشرين الثاني المقبل 11 / 2019 .

وهذا يعني أنّ ترامب قد قرّر العودة الى التركيز على شعارات حملته الانتخابية الاولى، بدءاً بما ذكر أعلاه اقتصادياً ومالياً ووصولاً الى:

الانسحاب العسكري الشامل، من كلّ «الشرق الأوسط» وليس فقط من افغانستان وسورية، وما يعنيه ذلك من تخلٍ كامل عن «إسرائيل» في اللحظة المناسبة… من الناحية العملية، وربما من مناطق عديدة أخرى في العالم وذلك خفضاً للنفقات العسكرية الأميركية تملك واشنطن اكثر من ألف قاعدة عسكرية خارج الولايات المتحدة .

الاستعداد لتحسين العلاقات الأميركية الروسية ومحاولة منع قيام تحالف أو حلف عسكري روسي مع الصين، ربما تنضم إليه دول اخرى.

إيجاد صيغة ما للتفاوض مع إيران وتطبيع العلاقات معها، وما يعنيه ذلك من تخلّ فعلي عن أدوات واشنطن الخليجية وسقوط لهم لاحقاً، ونعني بالتحديد ابن سلمان وابن زايد.

اذ انهم، كما نتن ياهو، فشلوا في تحقيق أيّ نجاح في المهمات التي أوكلت اليهم في طول «الشرق الاوسط» وعرضه، الأمر الذي جعلهم عبئاً لا طائل من حمله.

ولكن ترامب، رجل المال والصفقات، لن يترك ابن سلمان وابن زايد ينجون بجلودهم ويذهبون في حال سبيلهم، دون أن يعصر منهم المزيد من الاموال. اذ انه، ومن خلال الخبراء الأميركيين المختصين، يعمل على الاستيلاء على عملاق النفط العالمي، شركة أرامكو للبترول، وذلك من خلال طرحها للاكتتاب الخصخصة في بورصة نيويورك ومنع طرحها في بورصة طوكيو.

كما أنّ احتياطي النفط الهائل في محافظة الجوف اليمنية، الذي يزيد على كل احتياطيات النفط السعودية، هو السبب الرئيسي وراء رغبة ترامب عقد محادثات سرية مع أنصار الله، بهدف انهاء الحرب. فهو في حقيقة الأمر يريد التفاوض مع ممثلي الشعب اليمني ليس حفاظاً على أرواح اليمنيين وإنما من اجل ضمان إعطاء حقوق استثمار حقول النفط الموجودة في محافظة الجوف لشركات أميركية واستبعاد الشركات الروسية والصينية وحتى البريطانية من هذا المجال.

بعدنا طيبين، قولوا الله…


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الحلفُ الروسي الإيراني ضرورة لطرفيه



سبتمبر 14, 2019

د. وفيق إبراهيم

التحالفات حاجاتٌ لأصحابها، بالأسباب المباشرة حيناً وبغير المباشرة في مرات اخرى.

لكن ما ينطبق على العلاقات الروسية الإيرانية انها تتدحرج نحو تفاهمات عميقة، لا تنتمي الى فئة عرض قوة بوجه المنافسين فقط، بل لبناء قوة مشتركة تجعل من المحاولات الأميركية لترميم نفوذ بلادها هباء منثوراً.

بداية فإن روسيا وإيران مستهدفتان بدقة من الأميركيين. والدليل ان الأميركيين نجحوا في دفع روسيا الى داخل حدودها منذ عقدين ونيّف، سالبين منها محيطها في اوروبا الشرقية والقوقاز والشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى، فلم يتبق لها مدى إلا قاعدة بحرية صغيرة في سورية تطل على المتوسط وتنتمي الى مرحلة الراحل الاتحاد السوفياتي فورثتها موسكو بالنسب المشترك الى جانب علاقة حنين تاريخية مع كوبا والصين.

بدورها إيران وجدت نفسها بعد 39 سنة على ثورتها الإسلامية انها محاصرة الى حدود الاختناق من حرب أميركية اقتصادية تمنع العالم من بناء علاقات اقتصادية معها لا شراء ولا بيعاً وتهددها عسكرياً من قواعدها في الخليج وتحالفاتها مع دوله العربية بالاضافة الى «إسرائيل» التي تعتبر طهران العدو الاساسي لها في منطقة الشرق الاوسط.

هذا الجانب المشترك بين البلدين، يدفعهما الى استراتيجية تحالفية في وجه قوة عظمى فعلية تجمع كل مقومات الأحادية والنفوذ بالاقتصاد المرعب ومركزية السياسة العالمية و800 قاعدة عسكرية تنتشر في مئات البلدان وجيوش جرارة تملأ البر والبحر والفضاء والانتشار الثقافي والسيطرة على الذوق العالمي في المأكل والملبس وآليات اللهو والتسلية.

بيد أن هذا السبب الاستراتيجي موجود ايضاً مع عشرات البلدان الأخرى ولا يدفعها إلى تقاربات سياسية عميقة، بما يؤكد وجود اسباب عديدة لموضوعية التحالف الروسي الإيراني الذي يتكئ على عشرات المواضيع والابعاد الدافعة الى الاسراع في بنائه.

فإذا كانت العدوانية الأميركية العالمية سبباً استراتيجياً لتقاربهما، فهناك عناصر اخرى لا تقل اهمية واولها ان بحر قزوين المشترك بين البلدين مع دول اخرى من آسيا الوسطى هو معبر روسي بديل بإمكانه تأمين عبور سريع لها نحو إيران والخليج والعراق وسورية وبسرعة سياسية لافتة، ما يسمح لموسكو بالاستغناء النسبي عن خط البحر الأسود والمضائق التركية في مرمره وإيجه نحو البحر المتوسط او يصبح لديها على الأقل خطان مفتوحان يضعفان تأثير السياسة التركية على حرية الحركة الروسية.

ان هذا الخط القزويني يضع منطقتين شديدتي الأهمية امام الحركة الروسية الإيرانية المشتركة، وهما الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى.

لذلك ظهرت أهمية سورية للشريكين معاً، كبلد محوري له تأثير في المنطقة العربية عموماً والدول المجاورة له خصوصاً.

بما يفسر أسباب تركيز اعنف هجوم أميركي عليه، لا مثيل له منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية.

مستجلباً بالمقابل دعماً إيرانياً كبيراً ادرك ان اسقاط سورية هو اسقاط لكل الشرق العربي واضعاف حظوظ إيران بالصمود، كذلك فإن الروس استوعبوا بسرعة أن هزيمة نظام الرئيس بشار الاسد تسمح للأميركيين بالامساك بكامل الشرق الاوسط وهذا يعني العودة الأميركية السريعة للإمساك بنظام احتكار القوة، والهيمنة على العالم مجدداً.

لذلك ظهر وبشكل واضح حجم الدعمين الروسي والإيراني لسورية التي لم تبخل بدورها عبر جيشها وشعبها بكل امكاناتها للدفاع عن دولتها والمنطقة بأسرها.

قد تبرز تباينات في الأولويات بين روسيا وإيران لكنها لا تدعو الى القلق، لأن مرتكزات التقارب اوسع، وتدفع الى حلول وليس صراعات.

فالعمل في الشرق الاوسط يتطلّب تنسيقاً بين البلدين في اليمن والعراق وسورية ولبنان وفلسطين.

وأمكنة أخرى قابلة للانجذاب الى هذا المحور بفعل التراجعات الأميركية الواضحة، وخصوصاً في آسيا الوسطى، الأمر الذي يضع الحلف الروسي الإيراني – الفنزويلي ولاحقاً السوري أقوى معادلة في اسواق النفط والغاز، وهذه بمفردها من الأسباب العميقة للتقارب السياسي الروسي الإيراني الذي يستطيع بالتعاون مع الصين والهند تشكيل اقوى قوة اقتصادية في العالم.

فمقابل أميركا والسعودية وقطر، تبدو المعادلة الروسية السورية الإيرانية اقوى لأنها تمتلك البلد الذي لديه اكبر احتياطات نفط وهو فنزويلا بالمركز الاول عالمياً وروسيا وإيران بالمركزين الثالث والخامس.

اما الغاز فروسيا وهي الأولى عالمياً وإيران الثانية الى جانب امكانات هائلة في سورية، ما يضع هذه المعادلة على رأس الانجذابات العالمية اليها وخصوصاً اوروبا التي تجد نفسها مضطرة للتقارب مع قوى الطاقة المقبلة اي الغاز.

ألا تفسر هذه الاسباب مدى حاجة البلدين لبعضهما بعضاً وخصوصاً في هذه المرحلة من الصراع العنيف مع الأميركيين الذين لا يوفرون استخدام اي وسيلة تدميرية او ارهابية للمحافظة على سيطرتهم الاحادية.

للاشارة فقط ايضاً فان واشنطن تعكف حالياً على ابتكار آليات صراع جديدة مع الروس والإيرانيين والسوريين بالاضافة الى سياسات تتعمد تعميق التباينات الروسية الإيرانية وتحويلها تناقضات عميقة، فتزعم انها موافقة على نفوذ روسي في سورية انما على اساس انسحاب الإيرانيين منها. ومثل هذه الترهات لا تنطلي على موسكو التي تعرف ايضاً ان الدور الإيراني في سورية مرسوم من قبل دولتها صاحبة القرار النهائي بتحالفاتها، كما هو مرتبط بانسحاب الأميركيين من شرقي الفرات وشمالي سورية مع اعوانهم من الاوروبيين والدانمركيين والارهاب فضلاً عن الاحتلال التركي لإدلب وعفرين واجزاء من الحدود الشمالية.

لذلك فإن الرهان على انفجار التقارب الروسي الإيراني عبثيٌ لان مصالح البلدين تبتدئ انطلاقاً من هذه المرحلة لكنها غير قابلة للتوقف حتى بعد تشكل عالم متعدد القطب، لا تقف إيران بعيداً عن حدوده لقوتها المتصاعدة وتلعب روسيا دوراً محورياً في صناعته وتطوره.

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