Saturday 7 March 2020

اتّفاق موسكو: استراحة محاربين

لا تتخلى روسيا عن حليفتها سوريا، لكنها تراعي في الوقت نفسه وفي كلّ مرّة تطلعات تركيا (أ ف ب )

الجمعة 6 آذار 2020
اختار الطرفان التركي والروسي تجاوز الكمّ الكبير من الخلافات بينهما حول المواضيع الأساسية، والتوصّل إلى اتفاق خجول يتجاهل النقاط الحسّاسة التي كانت سبباً للتوترات الأخيرة. وهو ما يجعل الاتفاق مجرّد هدنة أو «استراحة محارب» في انتظار جولات عسكرية أخرى قادمةخرجت قمّة موسكو بين الرئيس التركي رجب طيب إردوغان، ونظيره الروسي فلاديمير بوتين، بنتائج أقلّ بكثير مما كان يُتوقّع منها، ولربما جاز وصفها بأنها «مخيّبة للآمال»؛ كونها فشلت في مقاربة عدد كبير من النقاط الحسّاسة التي غابت عن متن البيان الختامي. القمّة التي استمرّت ساعتين، قبل أن ينضمّ الرئيسان إلى وفدَي الطرفين لمدة أربع ساعات، خرجت ببيان من ثلاث نقاط:
1-
تقدّم الجيش السوري وحلفائه من روس وإيرانيين ومقاومة في الأسابيع الأخيرة على جبهات إدلب، وتحرير كامل المنطقة المحيطة بطريق «M5»، وصولاً إلى جبل الزاوية، في الطريق إلى السيطرة على طريق «M4»، وهي مناطق كانت مشمولة باتفاق سوتشي
2-
دخول الجيش التركي، للمرّة الأولى، بعناصره وعتاده إلى عمق إدلب، وصولاً إلى تشكيل «خطّ نار» على جبهة مقابلة لوجود الجيش السوري. وقد بلغ عدد الجنود والضباط ما لا يقلّ عن 8 آلاف عنصر، فضلاً عن أكثر من 3 آلاف آلية من دبابات وراجمات وصواريخ ومدافع وطائرات مسيّرة مسلّحة وغيرها.
3-
دخول الجيش التركي ومعه التنظيمات المسلّحة للمرّة الأولى في مواجهة عسكرية مباشرة جوية وبرّية مع قوات الجيش السوري وحلفائه، وسقوط خسائر كبيرة من الطرفين في ما يشبه حرباً إقليمية مصغرة. وهو ما يؤسّس لمرحلة جديدة من العلاقات الميدانية بين الطرفين لم يعد ممكناً في المستقبل استبعاد تكرارها على شكل حرب أوسع وغير محدودة.
ويلاحظ في الاتفاق
غياب أيّ إشارة إلى «المنطقة الآمنة» التي كانت تركيا تطالب بها على امتداد حدود الإسكندرون مع إدلب لجمع اللاجئين فيها.
غياب الإشارة إلى نقاط المراقبة التركية المحاصرة وماذا سيحلّ بها.
غياب الإشارة إلى التنظيمات المسلحة المصنفة إرهابية وتطهير المنطقة منها.
غياب الإشارة إلى آليات وقف النار ومن سيراقبه ويضبطه.
غياب أيّ إشارة حتى في تصريحات بوتين وإردوغان إلى «اتفاق أضنة».
وجنوبه «M4» عدم تحديد وظيفة «المنطقة الآمنة» شمال طريق .
في المقابل:
يثبّت الاتفاق الخطوط الجديدة التي وصل إليها الجيش السوري، ولا يشير إلى انسحابه إلى خطوط ما قبل المعارك، مثلما كان يطالب به إردوغان.
يثبّت، من خلال عدم الإشارة، وجود القوات التركية في عمق إدلب وعلى خطوط النار المواجِهة للجيش السوري.
يوسّع تمدّد الوجود العسكري التركي جنوباً إلى خط «M4» الذي هو تحت سيطرة المسلحين، ويعطي الوجود العسكري التركي، بالدوريات المشتركة مع روسيا، مشروعية ما، فيما يحرم الجيش السوري من إمكان مواصلة استعادة المناطق المحيطة بالطريق.
من الواضح أن اتفاق موسكو حاول أن يوازن بين مكاسب ميدانية تركية وسورية. لكنه لم يعالج أيّ مشكلة جذرية كانت سبباً للتصعيد العسكري الخطير في الآونة الأخيرة، ما يجعله مجرّد هدنة أو «استراحة محارب» في انتظار جولات عسكرية أخرى قادمة. وعلى ما يبدو، فإن الطرفين التركي والروسي اختارا، لتجاوز الكمّ الكبير من الخلافات بينهما حول المواضيع الأساسية، التوصل إلى اتفاق خجول يتجاهل النقاط الحساسة التي كانت سبباً للتوترات الأخيرة. وهو ما يعكس إلى حدّ كبير استراتيجية روسيا التي لا تتخلى عن حليفتها سوريا، لكنها تراعي في الوقت نفسه وفي كلّ مرّة تطلعات تركيا (المنطقة الآمنة والدوريات المشتركة) حتى لا تخسرها وتدفعها من جديد وبشكل كامل إلى الحاضنة الغربية.
حاول الاتفاق أن يوازن بين مكاسب ميدانية تركية وسورية، لكنه لم يعالج أيّ مشكلة جذرية
كان إردوغان قد ذهب للقاء نظيره الروسي في ظلّ ثلاثة متغيرات ميدانية، وعاملين: داخلي وخارجي:
1- تقدّم الجيش السوري وحلفائه من روس وإيرانيين ومقاومة في الأسابيع الأخيرة على جبهات إدلب، وتحرير كامل المنطقة المحيطة بطريق «M5»، وصولاً إلى جبل الزاوية، في الطريق إلى السيطرة على طريق «M4»، وهي مناطق كانت مشمولة باتفاق سوتشي.
2- دخول الجيش التركي، للمرّة الأولى، بعناصره وعتاده إلى عمق إدلب، وصولاً إلى تشكيل «خطّ نار» على جبهة مقابلة لوجود الجيش السوري. وقد بلغ عدد الجنود والضباط ما لا يقلّ عن 8 آلاف عنصر، فضلاً عن أكثر من 3 آلاف آلية من دبابات وراجمات وصواريخ ومدافع وطائرات مسيّرة مسلّحة وغيرها.
3- دخول الجيش التركي ومعه التنظيمات المسلّحة للمرّة الأولى في مواجهة عسكرية مباشرة جوية وبرّية مع قوات الجيش السوري وحلفائه، وسقوط خسائر كبيرة من الطرفين في ما يشبه حرباً إقليمية مصغرة. وهو ما يؤسّس لمرحلة جديدة من العلاقات الميدانية بين الطرفين لم يعد ممكناً في المستقبل استبعاد تكرارها على شكل حرب أوسع وغير محدودة.
ــــ أما العامل الداخلي، فهو الصدمة التي أثارها مقتل أكثر من 36 جندياً تركياً في ضربة جوية سورية ــــ روسية في 27 شباط الماضي، واستدعت استنفاراً داخلياً للالتفاف حول الجيش التركي، لكن مع عدم قدرة إردوغان على تجيير سقوط هؤلاء لمصلحة مخططاته في سوريا وإدلب، في ظلّ انقسام داخلي كبير، وتحميل إردوغان مسؤولية رمي الجنود الأتراك إلى مهلكة غير وطنية، ووسط العودة الممجوجة إلى نغمة الدفاع عن حدود «الميثاق الملّي» وتخويف الرأي العام التركي. إذ اعتبر شريك إردوغان، زعيم «الحركة القومية» دولت باهتشلي، أن الانسحاب من إدلب يعني الانسحاب لاحقاً من الإسكندرون، وكذلك في ظلّ استحكام «عقدة الأسد» بالمسؤولين الأتراك، حيث قال وزير الدفاع التركي، خلوصي آقار، خلال تعزية لعائلة أحد الجنود القتلى التي سألته: «متى سينتهي يا باشا هذا الأمر؟، إن «القوات التركية ستبقى في سوريا تحارب إلى أن يسقط النظام»، في حين قال باهتشلي نفسه إنه يجب التقدّم وصولاً إلى دمشق وفصل رأس الأسد ووضعه في كيس. في المقابل، سدّد الرئيس السوري، بشار الأسد، سهماً حادّاً للطروحات التركية عندما سأل الأتراك: «متى اعتدت سوريا على تركيا؟»، مؤكداً أن العلاقات بين البلدين محكومة بأن تكون طبيعية بخلاف الخطاب المتطرّف لإردوغان وشركائه في السلطة.
ــــ أما العامل الخارجي، فيتمثّل في فشل إردوغان في حشد الدعم الخارجي له. فلا حلف «شمالي الأطلسي» وقف بقوة إلى جانبه، ولا الولايات المتحدة وافقت على طلبه إرسال صواريخ «باتريوت»، ولا الاتحاد الأوروبي كان متحمّساً لمغامرته في إدلب، بل استاء من محاولة ابتزاز إردوغان للأوروبيين في ملف اللاجئين، والتي تعكس ضعفاً وليس قوة.
محروماً من أوراق القوة، لم يكن أمام إردوغان من ممرّ للخروج من مأزقه سوى ذلك المؤدي إلى موسكو، مع محاولة تحصيل ما أمكن من مكاسب عبر وضع ثقله العسكري في الميدان عشية لقائه مع بوتين. مع «اتفاق موسكو»، تدخل العلاقات التركية مع روسيا وسوريا وإيران مرحلة جديدة من التعقيدات غير الواضحة والمراوحة، في انتظار أوّل تعثر يعيد الكلمة الأخيرة إلى الميدان.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
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خمس جبهات تحاول اسقاط لبنان



هذه الجبهات ليست سرية، لأنها تضم قوى تتعامل مع لبنان بمنطقين: إما الإمساك به الى درجة الاستخدام أو مهاجمته الى حدود الخنق.
وتجمع بين الأميركيين والسعوديين والإسرائيليين وقائد حزب القوات سمير جعجع، واخيراً المحكمة الدولية التي «استفاقت» الآن وبعد سبات طويل، لتعاود التدخل في محاولة للتأثير على الوضع الداخلي ولا علاقة لها بطبيعة اختصاصها.
ما هو غريب هنا ليس استهداف هذه القوى لحزب الله، فهي تعلم أن التصويب عليه، إنما هدفه الإطاحة بالمعادلة السياسية التي تحاول انقاذ لبنان من انهياره الاقتصادي والسياسي وتهديد من الإرهاب و»اسرائيل» لاستقراره.
الغريب اذاً هو في تزامن هجمات هذه القوى على حزب الله من زوايا مختلفة.
يمنحها مصداقية سياسية، إعلان المحكمة الدولية عن اقتراب موعد الحكم على متهمين تزعم أنهم من حزب الله وبتهمة اغتيال رئيس الوزراء السابق رفيق الحريري.
علماً أنها لم تعتقل متهماً واحداً وليس لديها إلا اتصالات هاتفية، يؤكد خبراء دوليون أنها مفبركة. بما يكشف ان هذه المحكمة هي آلية سياسية وليست قانونية وأراد مؤسسوها الأميركيون استعمالها عند اللزوم كهراوة تضرب عشوائياً لتمنع استقرار الوضع السياسي في لبنان، والمضحك أن لبنان يدفع أكثر من نصف نفقاتها، لذلك فإن الرمي على حزب الله انما يريد تفجير حكومة حسان دياب، ووضع لبنان امام احتمالين: اما القبول بالشروط الأميركية او الخنق الكامل، ومنع تشكيل حكومة جديدة بكل السبل الممكنة.
لجهة الأميركيين فما ان ادلى وزير خارجيتهم بومبيو بتصريح اتهم فيه حزب الله بالارهاب على جاري عادته حتى اعلنت المخابرات الأميركية انها اعتقلت مواطنة أميركية من اصل لبناني تعمل مترجمة في دوائرها بتهمة التجسس عبر نقل معلومات من المواد التي كانت تتولى ترجمتها، لعناصر من حزب الله.
فيتكامل هذا الاتهام مع رشقات بومبيو اليومية نحو الحزب، فيشكلان مادة قابلة للاستخدام وتتعلق برفض الأميركيين لأي وجود لحزب الله في المؤسسات الدستورية اللبنانية وضرورة تجريده من سلاحه.
اما السعوديون فتفتقت عبقريتهم من دفع وزير سابق منهم هو عبد العزيز خوجه الذي كان سفيرهم في لبنان، لينشر كتاباً عن ذكرياته السياسية، فتزامن صدوره تحت اسم التجربة مع التصريحات الأميركية، مورداً مواقف زعم انها لامين عام حزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله وبعض قياداته، يقولون فيها انهم يفجرون لبنان اذا جرى تأسيس محكمة دولية لاغتيال رفيق الحريري وأضافوا أن علاقاتهم بسورية ليست تحالفية بل مجرد معبر يمر منها السلاح الايراني ليصل اليهم في بيروت، وليس أكثر، وهذا جزء بسيط جداً من ترهات خوجة الذي قال إن السعوديين اكتشفوا منذ 2006 ان حزب الله يريد نشر الفوضى والإرهاب في لبنان والمنطقة.
على مستوى «اسرائيل»، فهي تحصر هجماتها على حلف المقاومة بالرمي اليومي على حزب الله، لكنها ضاعفت في هذه المرحلة من هذا الاستهداف لسببين: قلقها المتصاعد من حزب الله وتحالفاته ومحاولات نتنياهو الاستثمار في ما يشكله حزب الله من رعب للإسرائيليين الأمر الذي يجعل السياسة الاسرائيلية توجه في كل يوم اتهامات جديدة للحزب. وهذا طبيعي لانه لم يعد للكيان المحتل من أعداء إلا سورية وحزب الله وحركة حماس بمعنى ان تحالفاته عند العرب أكثر من اعدائه.
ماذا الآن عند جعجع؟ في التوقيت نفسه الذي انطلقت فيه هذه المواقف، أطلق جعجع تصريحاً قال فيه إن باستطاعة حزب الله معالجة الانهيار اللبناني بوسائل عدة: أولاً برفع دعمه عن الفاسدين وتغطيته لهم. وثانياً تسليم سلاحه الى الدولة بما ينسف كل الاتهامات التي تزعم بوجود دولتين في لبنان، واحدة لحزب الله قوية ومتماسكة وأخرى للطوائف الداخلية، غير مستقرة وضعيفة الى حدود الاستسلام لوصاية دولة حزب الله.
إن أهمية تصريح جعجع هي في تزامنه المريب مع تصريح المحكمة الدولية وبيانات بومبيو ونتنياهو والسعوديين عبر سفيرهم الخوجة.
فهل من المصادفة اجتماع كل هذه التصريحات في أقل من أسبوع ومن دول وقوى متحالفة فيما بينها ولها غاية واحدة وهي النيل من حزب الله بدوريه اللبناني والإقليمي.
بأي حال يجب على هذه القوى أن تعرف أن حزب الله هو الذي حرّر لبنان من الاحتلال الإسرائيلي في 2006 ومنع محاولات اسرائيلية لتجديد احتلاله في 2006 وكانت أربع من هذه القوى وهم الأميركيون والسعوديون والإسرائيليون وسمير جعجع يؤيدون انتصارات «اسرائيل» على حزب الله؛ وهذا لم يحدث وتحرّر لبنان.
فكيف يجوز للبناني استنكار هذه الانتصارات التي لا يستطيع أحد أن يُنكر حدوثها.
وهل بوسع السيد جعجع أن ينكر أن «إسرائيل» تشكل خطراً دائماً على لبنان حتى في حالة غياب سلاح حزب الله والدليل أنها تهاجم لبنان منذ 1948 وحتى 2000 ولم يكن هناك أي تهديد يصل اليها من لبنان؟
كما أن موافقة السيد جعجع على بيانات المحكمة الدولية وتعويله عليها لإحداث تغيير في الموازنات السياسية في لبنان، لا يرقى الى مستوى النقاش الفعلي لان حزب القوات يعرف مدى شعبية حزب الله وإصراره على حماية المعادلة السياسية الحاكمة حالياً.
وهذا يكشف أن هناك محاولات خارجية وداخلية تريد تفجير الوضع اللبناني عبر استهداف حزب الله، وذلك للنيل من الدور الإقليمي لحزب الله المناهض لـ»إسرائيل» والإرهاب معاً.
بما يؤكد ان هذا الاستهداف يريد أيضاً اثارة الفوضى الكاملة لإلغاء الدور الإقليمي للحزب الذي بدت أهميته كاملة في معارك ادلب وعلاقاته الفكرية والجهادية بالعديد من التنظيمات الاقليمية.
يتبين بالاستنتاج ان محاولات هذه القوى فاشلة سلفاً وقد تدفع تيارات وطنية لبنانية للطلب من حكومة لبنان بوقف تمويل المحكمة الدولية الخاصة بالتحقيق في اغتيال رفيق الحريري لأنها أصبحت آلية لا علاقة لها بالشهيد وتمتلك مهمة واحدة وهي دفع الأوضاع الداخلية بما يخدم فكرة تفجير لبنان فقط.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Shaaban: Russian-Turkish agreement on Syria's Idleb is the result of the Syrian Arab army's sacrifices

Friday, 06 March 2020 23:54 | 


DAMASCUS, (ST)- Dr. Bouthaina Shaaban, the Presidential Political and Media Advisor stressed on Friday that the Russian-Turkish agreement on Syria’s Idleb, reached on Thursday between the Russian and Turkish presidents in Moscow, is the result of the sacrifices of the Syrian Arab army on the Syrian land.  She pointed out that this agreement serves Syria’s interest and future and it would enhance elements of strength to liberate all the Syrian territories from terrorism.
Interviewed by the Syrian TV, Shaaban said that the honorable sacrifices of the Syrian army have led to the liberation of 2000 square km, opened the M4 and M5 main roads, enforced the implementation of the Sochi agreement and imposed the continuity of fighting terrorists.
 She affirmed that there is no agreement that gives President of the Turkish regime Recep Tayyib Erdogan the right to attack a sovereign state and a member of the United Nations.
The agreement is part of several political, military and diplomatic tracks and it is an interim deal concerning a specific area, said Shaaban, adding that the agreement serves Syria’s interest, army and people as well as the war on terrorism and it carries on the implementation of Sochi agreement.
She underscored that the outcomes of Erdogan’s behavior indicate the crisis he is experiencing currently inside and outside his country, noting that the Europeans and the world in general have started to realize the danger of Erdogan’s policies, either through the immigration file or the terrorism supporting file.
Shaaban made it clear that there is a Russian-Syrian coordination in advance and there is credibility and mutual trust between Syria and Russia.
“Russia has proved over the years of war on Syria that it is a reliable ally which respects its word,” Shaaban reiterated.
Regarding the Israeli repeated attacks on Syrian territories, Shaaban said that these attacks aim at creating confusion and prolonging the war on Syria after the victories that have been achieved on terrorism.
She pointed out that the Turkish regime has been in complete coordination with the Zionist entity, the United States and Syria’s enemies and that Erdogan’s remarks on supporting the Palestinian cause are absolutely meaningless, because he serves the interest of the Zionist entity in Syria, Libya and Iraq.
The Presidential advisor reiterated that Syria is fighting terrorism on behalf of the entire world and it will continue fighting it until every inch of the Syrian land is liberated, emphasizing that the American and the Turkish occupation will leave the Syrian land no matter how long it takes.

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Turkey vows to fight back against any Syrian Army attack

By News Desk -2020-03-06
Turkish Armed Forces in Syria’s Idlib would invariably fight back any attack from the Syrian forces, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday.
“We would invariably stay vigilant for any attacks and violations from the [Bashar Assad’s] regime,” Erdogan said, according to Yeni Safak.
According to the Turkish President, Ankara’s main goal is “implementation of UN resolution 2254 and launch of political process and end of civil war in Syria.”
The Turkish President also noted that “the Turkish observation points would retain its status.”
“You know we have 12 observation points [in Idlib], and they are very important for us. […] Any changes [regarding the observation points] are off the table,” he said.
On Thursday, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan have agreed upon a ceasefire and a number of other measures, aimed to settle the situation in Syria’s Idlib province.
The agreements stipulate that military action in Idlib will cease along the entire front line, and a ceasefire will begin on March 6. Starting on March 15, Russia and Turkey will conduct joint patrols along the M4 highway, along which a safety corridor will be set up. Moscow and Ankara have confirmed their dedication to preservation of sovereignty of Syria and agreed to continue decisive fight against terrorism.
Source: TASS

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020 – IN THE EYE OF THE STORM


Written by J.Hawk exclusively for SouthFront

Biden His Time

The South Carolina primary and the Super Tuesday were clarifying events which yielded the surprising result of returning Joe Biden to the status of Democratic Party front-runner for the nomination. It does not appear likely the Party hierarchy desired this result. Given the hype surrounding some of the younger candidates such as Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigieg, it is more likely they were hoping to repeat the success of the Obama formula. Namely, a young, charismatic, inexperienced candidate who can be all things to all people and does not have any messy baggage that is inevitable with every veteran mainstream politician. But Beto imploded even before his campaign got off the ground, and Pete proved incapable of attracting the votes of Hispanics and African Americans.
Instead, the Sanders campaign tapped into the growing demand for genuine domestic reforms, giving Vermont’s self-declared democratic socialist a massive boost in the polls that simply frightened the Democratic Party elite. The initial reaction to Sanders consisted of enlisting New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg, a billionaire, to run as a Democrat as insurance against Sanders’ apparent dominance of the field whose massive campaign advertising spree had the effect of suffocating the efforts of his rivals by driving up ad prices. The second part of anti-Sanders campaign became evident during the most recent debate, in which virtually everyone ganged up on Sanders, even the supposed “moderate” Warren. Thirdly, behind the scenes machinations by Party leadership prompted several candidates (Steyer, Buttigieg, Klobuchar) to drop out in order to promote consolidation around either Biden or Bloomberg, with Warren being kept on in order to siphon the votes away from Sanders. Super Tuesday primaries made Biden look more viable than Bloomberg who then promptly dropped out in order to allow the status-quo support to coalesce around Biden. But the heavy-handed intervention to aid Biden carries two risks.

Dr. Demento

The state of Biden’s health is such that the decision to abandon Bloomberg as “insurance policy” may have been premature. To state it plainly, Joe Biden’s cognitive skills have sharply declined since his time as Vice President. Biden’s arguably greatest asset to Obama was as a ferocious campaigner with a certain presence of mind. Today’s Biden forgets what he said two minutes earlier, seems unaware of which city and state he is in at the moment, cannot decide whether he is running for the Presidency or the Senate, and is prone to making incoherent, stream-of-consciousness rants that the dutiful media continue describe as “gaffes” and  his most ardent supporters as “stutter”. When giving Super Tuesday victory speeches, Biden had to resort to reading prepared text off a teleprompter, leading one TV pundit to praise Biden’s ability to “finish his sentences” without even a hint of irony. But should Biden suffer an impossible to conceal cognitive lapse in the middle of a debate with Donald Trump, who is still a formidable stage performer, it will lead to demands for Biden’s medical records or even a new medical evaluation to ensure he is not suffering from the onset of Alzheimer’s. Unless Biden can muster a lucid mind in time to face Donald Trump, the state of his mental health will become a significant liability.

A Party Divided

The other problem is the now-evident and very deep Party polarization. Bluntly put, there are now great many Biden supporters who would never vote for Sanders, and great many Sanders supporters who would never vote for Biden. Worse, many of the Biden supporters, including in the ranks of the American punditry and commentariat, have developed such an intense dislike for Sanders that they are hinting at voting for Trump rather than a “socialist”. One can readily sense the degree of polarization when hashtags like #BernieBros are trending at the same time as #IDoNotLikeJoeBiden.
The level of division within the Party is such that no single candidate can possibly bridge it. No matter who is nominated, he will not have the full and enthusiastic support of a major faction of the Democratic Party coalition. Potentially complicating matters even further is the institution of super-delegates, or die-hard party loyalists who can declare their support for a candidate irrespective of the will of the voters in their state.

The Known Unknowns

The outcome of the race will furthermore depend on several factors which are guaranteed to play a role in the outcome, but whose impact cannot yet be accurately predicted. In no particular order, they are
  • The Economy. If United States suffers from a recession or even a full-blown financial crisis, 2008-style, Trump is toast almost irrespective of what Biden does on the campaign trail. Trump has made the economy the centerpiece of his presidency—if anything bad happens to it, it will doom the chances of his second term. However, at the moment there are no indications anything like that will happen. Rather the opposite—the Federal Reserve’s lowering the federal funds rate by half a percentage point represents an endorsement of Trump for a second term.
  • Coronavirus. If the United States are hit hard by the pandemic and its ramshackle for-profit health care system copes with it less effectively than China’s, this too would be a major problem for Donald Trump, particularly if it triggers an economic crisis whose effects are felt before November. Trump’s appointment of Pence to deal with the anti-pandemic measures shows the White House is taking this threat very seriously.
  • VP pick. There are no indications Trump would have a different running mate in 2020, and Pence has proved himself to be if not a Cheney-style power-behind-the-throne, then at least a reliable and discrete troubleshooter for the administration. Biden’s or Sanders’ VP picks are still unknown and, in the light of their own lack of executive experience, selection of a capable, experienced administrator.
  • Election rigging. Research conducted after Super Tuesday showed significant discrepancies between tabulated votes and exit poll results, in some states reaching 8%, which is an unusually large amount well outside the margin of error. Ironically, US AID own guidelines for election monitoring state that such discrepancies may constitute an indicator though not proof that the election was tampered with. That possibility cannot be ruled out, since voting is done using electronic machines leaving no paper trail, making verification all but impossible. Given the post-2016 emphasis on “securing elections”, ostensibly to prevent “Russian hackers” from influencing the outcome in the future, one also cannot rule out the possibility the “Russia scare” was used as cover under which mechanisms for influencing vote scoring were embedded in many if not all US states. It also remains to be seen whether such tactics could be used in the general election, given the inevitable outcry it would provoke among the republican electorate. For now, it appears more likely for them to be used only in intra-party power struggles, to eliminate status quo challengers like Sanders.

Four More Years

Unless one of the above-named unknowns manifests itself in the coming months, Donald Trump is well positioned to win the second term. Not only can Trump boast certain successes in domestic and foreign policy, the schism among the Democrats will result in a demotivated base no matter whether Biden or Sanders are the nominee.
In practical terms it means United States foreign policy run by the “deep state” for at least four more years, leading to more wars, fewer arms control agreements, deeper deficits, and the general deterioration of international security, which will make the global multipolarity even more evident than it is right now.
Biden’s victory would not change the trajectory of US politics, either. Joseph Biden Jr. represents the corporatist pro-war wing of the Democratic Party, and Biden’s own involvement in Ukraine is so well known that it requires no additional elaboration. And whereas Trump at least made efforts to rein in the “deep state” and paid a price for it in the form of impeachment, President Biden will do no such thing.
Finally, in the unlikely event of a Sanders victory, there is no reason to expect he would be any more successful than Trump in thwarting such subversion of Constitutional authority. Even though he might be willing to do so, and his extensive domestic agenda practically demands reductions in the colossal national security budget, his own party simply will not let him. If anything, it will back the “deep state” against him as it did against Trump.
Thus at the moment the US political system is a functioning replica of the Titanic heading for the iceberg, with intense struggle on the bridge over who will control the steering wheel. Except that there’s a catch: no matter who seizes it, the ship’s course will not change sufficiently to avoid catastrophe.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Putin saves Erdogan from himself





Once again it was Russia that just prevented the threatened ‘Muslim invasion’ of Europe advertised by Erdogan

MARCH 6, 2020



At the start of their discussion marathon in Moscow on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with arguably the most extraordinary diplomatic gambit of the young 21st century.
Putin said: “At the beginning of our meeting, I would like to once again express my sincere condolences over the death of your servicemen in Syria. Unfortunately, as I have already told you during our phone call, nobody, including Syrian troops, had known their whereabouts.”
This is how a true world leader tells a regional leader, to his face, to please refrain from positioning his forces as jihadi supporters – incognito, in the middle of an explosive theater of war.  
The Putin-Erdogan face-to-face discussion, with only interpreters allowed in the room, lasted three hours, before another hour with the respective delegations. In the end, it all came down to Putin selling an elegant way for Erdogan to save face – in the form of, what else, yet another ceasefire in Idlib, which started at midnight on Thursday, signed in Turkish, Russian and English – “all texts having equal legal force.”  
Additionally, on March 15, joint Turkish-Russian patrolling will start along the M4 highway – implying endless mutating strands of al-Qaeda in Syria won’t be allowed to retake it. 
If this all looks like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Quite a few official photos of the Moscow meeting prominently feature Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu – the other two heavyweights in the room apart from both Presidents. In the wake of Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu must have read the riot act to Erdogan in no uncertain terms. That’s enough: now behave, please – or else face dire consequences.   

The second Ataturk

A predictable feature of the new ceasefire is that both Moscow and Ankara – part of the Astana peace process, alongside Tehran – remain committed to maintaining the “territorial integrity and sovereignty” of Syria. Once again, there’s no guarantee that Erdogan will abide.
It’s crucial to recap the basics. Turkey is deep in financial crisis. Ankara needs cash – badly. The lira is collapsing. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is losing elections. Former prime minister and party leader Ahmet Davutoglu – who conceptualized neo-Ottomanism – has left the party and is carving his own political niche. The AKP is mired in an internal crisis.
Erdogan’s response has been to go on the offensive. That’s how he re-establishes his aura. Combine Idlib with his maritime pretensions around Cyprus and blackmail pressure on the EU via the inundation of Lesbos in Greece with refugees, and we have Erdogan’s trademark modus operandi in full swing.  
In theory, the new ceasefire will force Erdogan to finally abandon all those myriad al Nusra/ISIS metastases – what the West calls “moderate rebels,” duly weaponized by Ankara. This is an absolute red line for Moscow – and also for Damascus. There will be no territory left behind for jihadis. Iraq is another story: ISIS is still lurking around Kirkuk and Mosul.  
No NATO fanatic will ever admit it, but once again it was Russia that just prevented the threatened “Muslim invasion” of Europe advertised by Erdogan. Yet there was never any invasion in the first place, only a few thousand economic migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Sahel, not Syrians. There are no “one million” Syrian refugees on the verge of entering the EU.
The EU, proverbially, will keep blabbering. Brussels and most capitals still have not understood that Bashar al-Assad has been fighting al Nusra/ISIS all along. They simply don’t understand the correlation of forces on the ground. Their fallback position is always the scratched CD of “European values.” No wonder the EU is a secondary actor in the whole Syrian tragedy.
I received excellent feedback from progressive Turkish analysts as I attempted to connect Erdogan Khan’s motivations with Turkey’s history and the empires of he steppes.
Their argument, essentially, is that Erdogan is an internationalist, but in Islamic terms only. Since 2000 he has managed to create a climate of denying ancient Turkish nationalist motives. He does use Turkishness, but as one analyst stresses, “he has nothing to do with ancient Turks. He’s an Ikhwani. He doesn’t care about Kurds either, as long as they are his ‘good Islamists.’”
Another analyst points out that, “in modern Turkey, being ‘Turkish’ is not related to race, because most Turkish people are Anatolian, a mixed population.”
So, in a nutshell, what Erdogan cares about is Idlib, Aleppo, Damascus, Mecca and not Southwest Asia or Central Asia. He wants to be “the second Ataturk.” Yet nobody except Islamists sees him this way – and “sometimes he shows his anger because of this. His only aim is to beat Ataturk and create an Islamic opposite of Ataturk.” And creating that anti-Ataturk would be via neo-Ottomanism.    
Crack independent historian Dr Can Erimtan, whom I had the pleasure to meet when he still lived in Istanbul (he’s now in self-exile), offers a sweeping Eurasianist background to Erdogan’s dreams. Well, Vladimir Putin has just offered the second Ataturk some breathing room. All bets are off on whether the new ceasefire will metastasize into a funeral pyre. 

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

DOCTORED FOOTAGE AND FAKE CLAIMS: TURKISH MEDIA CAMPAIGN IN SUPPORT OF OPERATION PEACE SPRING


Since the start of Operation Peace Spring, Turkish media outlets have released a large number of videos showing Turkish strikes on positions of the Syrian Army in Greater Idlib. In general, these videos provide a useful inside into Turkish operations against forces of the Damascus government. However, some of them appear to have apparent issues and cause legitimate raising of eyebrows.
It’s interesting to note that most of these ‘strange videos’ were released by ‘Clash Report’, the media outlet that spearheaded the Turkish military propaganda campaign in social media. Among other things, this media outlet released videos supposedly showing the destruction of the Russian-made Pantsir air defense systems and a bombing of a large Syrian Army military convoy. These videos drew a notable attention of the international audience. So, let’s get a closer look at them.

Video 1 – Destruction of a first Russian-made Pantsir air defense system

A simple example is the following Twitter post, in it, a Turkish drone strike reportedly destroyed a Russian-made Pantsir S-1, used by the Syrian Arab Army.
After the attack on its soldiers, Turkish Armed Forces destroyed one of the Syrian regime's Russian-made Pantsir S-1 (Sa-22) air defense system. Aerial footage clearly shows the radar was active when it was hit.




Embedded video


On the exact same day, with the exact same video, but in Arabic, the post claims that the Pantsir S-1 is being operated by the so-called Russian private military company – “Wagner” (Turkey regularly claims that Turkish-backed forces are fighting Russian mercenaries in Libya) – and that the radar was on and it was still destroyed in a drone strike, but in Libya.
جيش التركي ، دمر نظام الدفاع الجوي Pantir S-1 (Sa-22) الروسي الصنع. يبدو أن رادار النظام فعال..
ميليشيات Wagner الروسية في ليبيا.




Embedded video


Both posts are followed, however, by a description of how much the Pantsir S-1 costs and that only 12 countries have the equipment, in the respective language.
The Pantsir S-1, said to be worth in excess of 75 million dollars, sits in the inventory of 12 countries, and was recently deployed by the Russian mercenary company in .



View image on Twitter


إن Pantir S-1 ، نظام الدفاع الجوي الذي دمرته القوات الجوية التركية ، هو يستعمل 12 دولة. وتفيد التقارير بأن بانتسير ، بقيمة 75 مليون دولار ، تم استخدامها من قبل ميليشيات Wagner الروسية في ليبيا.



View image on Twitter


Both of these claim Wagner deployed them in Libya.

Video 2 – Destruction of a second Russian-made Pantsir air defense system

A second video, purportedly showing a Pantsir-S1 system in Saraqib also raises some questions, as specifically to its content. It was published on March 3rd.
Images du système de défense aérienne (SA-22) abattu par des drones de combat turc à dans la nuit du 3 mars alors que son radar était actif.Des traces de caméras thermiques sur le côté de la batterie déterminent que le système a été tiré contre un avion turc




Embedded video


The video is 16 seconds and is very obviously consisting of two glued fragments. The first fragment actually shows the installation of a rotating radar. The second begins with an explosion. Moreover, two fragments are glued in such a way as to create the feeling that this is a continuous video. However, a closer look allows to see that the second part was shot a little from a different angle.
Here are the shots between second 11-14, when the explosion happens, it fades to black, there’s a little flash and it resumes. It can be seen that the explosion is centered so that it is in the same place where the presumed Pantsir stood before gluing.
Doctored Footage And Fake Claims: Turkish Media Campaign In Support Of Operation Peace Spring
Click to see full-size image
Doctored Footage And Fake Claims: Turkish Media Campaign In Support Of Operation Peace Spring
Click to see full-size image
Doctored Footage And Fake Claims: Turkish Media Campaign In Support Of Operation Peace Spring
Click to see full-size image
Then if the footage around second 14-16 is added here, it becomes obvious that the shooting is from a different angle. The tracks left from the Pantsir is now turned almost horizontally.
There are serious suspicions of falsification, as it can clearly be seen that there was an attempt to show the viewer something that this video does not specifically show.
Another problem is identical debris. After the explosion, a cloud of debris rises into the air. If one looks closely at them, it turns out that some of them are exactly the same.
Doctored Footage And Fake Claims: Turkish Media Campaign In Support Of Operation Peace Spring
Click to see full-size image
Did the Pantsir system disappear? And finally, the main thing. Let’s see the “last” second before the explosion and the last second before the video ends. If one looked “closely” you could see that the Pantsir is mounted to a rather large four-axle vehicle, much larger than a normal truck. From it should remain quite large debris, parts of the chassis. There is nothing, nothing at all remains.
Red circles on the image show debris that have already landed on the ground, the smoke that one sees in the frame flies over them and sometimes covers them. That is, one can clearly see the surface of the earth, but the installation has disappeared. The identical debris flying in the air is in blue.
Doctored Footage And Fake Claims: Turkish Media Campaign In Support Of Operation Peace Spring
Click to see full-size image
These lacks are so so obvious that there is even a sarcastic video presenting some of the issues the video has.

Video 3 – Strikes on a Syrian Army column near Maarat al-Numan

Moving on to another video published by Clash Report, this time on March 3rd. It purportedly showed a Syrian Arab Army convoy being punded by Turkish strikes.
A convoy consisting of tanks and armored vehicles were completely destroyed by armed , near , South .




Embedded video


Starting from the 13th second of the video, an individual supposedly exist the tank, and begins moving towards the other armored vehicle. What is questionable is the manner of his movement, as if he’s experiencing some sort of “video game lag,” but in real life.
Compared to the soldiers running in a file to the right, the movement of the individual on the left appears as if separated into specific frames, and rather odd, since the movement of everybody else in the footage is quite fluid.
Doctored Footage And Fake Claims: Turkish Media Campaign In Support Of Operation Peace Spring
Click to see full-size image
Then, the next explosion, which also obviously has jumps in footage, of where the specific parts were glued together, also has entirely identical debris resulting from the explosion that happens at the 41st second of the video.
Doctored Footage And Fake Claims: Turkish Media Campaign In Support Of Operation Peace Spring
Click to see full-size image
The final segment shows troops and a tank, being struck and then the camera rapidly pans to the side, not showing any of the aftermath, just the flash of the explosion and some partial debris.

***

Therefore, Turkish media outlets intentionally released doctored footage and made false claims in an attempt to paint the Turkish military operation in Syria more successful than it was. This is a common approach for any side of the conflict. However, it’s interesting to note that no of ‘high-professional’ maisntream media outlets adressed these gaps in Turkish-provided video reports.
A summary of Turkish Defense Ministry claims on the supposed casualties and equipment losses of the Syrian Army during Operation Peace Spring:
Doctored Footage And Fake Claims: Turkish Media Campaign In Support Of Operation Peace Spring
Click to see the full-size image
MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Erdogan The Liar


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The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!