Anatomy of a "Victory"

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Posted by Qifa Nabki

Before last night’s Lebanese election results started pouring in, I had been mentally penning a ‘morning after’ post entitled “Anatomy of a Defeat”, in which I would attempt to put my finger on exactly what it was that led to the undoing of the March 14 movement over the past couple of years. As anyone who regularly reads this blog could surmise, I was one of the many who suspected that the opposition would win this election. I count myself in good company: every major pollster was projecting a narrow opposition win, and even March 14 stalwarts had expressed their frustration with the movement’s seeming aimlessness over the past few months. All signs seemed to point to an FPM-Hizbullah win.

And now this. Lebanon never fails to surprise.

The blogosphere is already buzzing with interpretations of M14’s electoral victory. Abu Muqawama (Andrew Exum) attributes it to a combination of Christian animosity towards Hizbullah for its takeover of West Beirut last year; Saudi money; and a few well-placed words by the Maronite patriarch a couple of days before the election. Robert Satloff, writing at MESH, says that Joe Biden was the real hero, sweeping into Beirut to remind voters of the consequences for Lebanon’s alliance with the U.S. if Hizbullah and its allies won, with the result that Christian voters “cast their ballots in droves for candidates opposed to the Hezbollah-backed alliance.”

Foreign Policy’s Blake Hounshell disagrees, saying:

I hate to burst the bubble, but there’s simply no evidence yet that Obama had any impact on the outcome. As Paul Salem explained Friday for FP, there were plenty of indications – such as the fact that it only ran 11 candidates — that Hezbollah didn’t really want to win and give up its cozy seat in the opposition. And further, it was Hezbollah’s coalition partner, the mostly Christian Free Patriotic Movement, that seems to have underperformed expectations.

This debate will continue over the coming weeks, as more numbers come in (although, who trusts a pollster anymore?). In the meantime, here are some thoughts. I know that many in the opposition are going to start blaming the Maronite patriarch for their loss — as he issued a statement a couple of days before the election which seemed to chide Lebanese Christians into voting for March 14. But when we consider the fact that the FPM performed very well in the Maronite heartland — with sweeps in Kisrawan, Jbeil, Baabda, Zgharta, and a strong showing in the Metn — I’m not so sure that this explanation holds much water.

Far more decisive, in my opinion, seems to have been:

(1) the high turnout of Sunnis in Zahle — many of whom came from abroad — coupled with a low turnout of Christians;

(2) strong feelings of antipathy towards Hizbullah by the Christians of Beirut who voted decisively for March 14th’s list in the district of Achrafieh;

(3) some rare rhetorical blunders by Nasrallah in the past couple of weeks, calling the events of May 7th “a glorious day” for the resistance.

I’ll be adding some more coverage over the day, so check back in. A hearty welcome to all of the new readers.

Comment:

Yes its the "victory" of Pertro-dollar, Usrael blackmail, the 1960 secterian election law, and the unholy alliance of President Suliaman, the Maronite patriarch, Saad Al-Hariri and Samir Jaaja.

It is the VICTORY of Israel whose Transport minster, before declaring the election results officially, called for disarming Hezbullah.

The angry Angry arab claimed that Saudis cheated the Syrians saying they will refrain from spending any money in support of the Hariri candidates. The Syrians unable to compete with Sauadis were more than happy to shelve the money, thereby allowing the Saudi government to spend freely.

Taking all above into cosideration, I would say, the elections confirmed Free Patriotic Movement as the true representative of Lebanese Christian who, with their decision hijacked by Hariri, shall discover that they are the ultimate lossers. Anahar propaganda refered to the victory of March 14 in Ashrafiyyah and Zahlah as "Christian overwhelmingly victory" implying that the Christians in the opposition are not Christian.

March 14 should consider the lesson of the past 4 years and and remember that the opposition holds 57 seats (45%)

Moreover, Hezbullah shall remain the difficult figure, and shall not commit the suicide of laying arms.

Update:

MP Raad Warns Government to Come not to Touch Resistance Arms

08/06/2009

The head of the Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc MP Mohamad Raad on Monday warned that the arms of the resistance was not subject to discussion.

Raad was speaking one day after results showed that the March 14 bloc had won the elections.

The next phase after elections is forming a government with a policy statement that would govern its practice for the next four years.

"The majority must commit not to question our role as a resistance party, the legitimacy of our weapons arsenal and the fact that Israel is an enemy state," Raad told AFP.He warned that the outcome of Sunday's vote signaled further political turbulence."The results indicate that the crisis will continue, unless the majority changes its attitude," said Raad.

fatima said...

between US ,and saudi Millions how can anyone talk about honest votes in Lebanon , many votes have been bought , while sunni clerics followed the wahabi Advice and told people if they vote for Hezbollah they vote for Iran . the wahabis have been working tirelessly at the shia/sunni divide even INSIDE lebanon . Money talks .