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June 26, 2009
It seems the Iranian election is now officially decided:
"After 10 days of examination, we did not see any major irregularities," Guardians Council spokesman Abbasali Kadkhodai told the state IRNA news agency, rejecting opposition allegations that have brought hundreds of thousands of demonstrators onto the streets.
"We have had no fraud in any presidential election and this one was the cleanest election we have had. I can say with certainty that there was no fraud in this election."
Well - who to believe? Unless we see some real proof of fraud I am content to believe that there was none.
The result is disappointing for the millions who voted for Mousavi and took to the streets in those big demonstrations. Pat Lang predicts:
I think there is likely to be a sine curve of resistance that fluctuates between relative quiet and street action. This will eventually either eliminate this [ruling] clique or cause a massive change in its policies.
I am not so sure. The last days street action were mostly youth riots that can be seen on and off again in any normal state and with the usual outcome. They are no danger to the government.
Most Iranian people, after thinking through the issue in calm, will probably also wonder about the absence of any proof for fraud. So there is a chance that this really may quiet down. Some changes in Ahmadinejad's policies could help too. It will be interesting to see what modifications he will make in his cabinet.
To prevent a repeat of such election protest, Iran should try to make the election process even more transparent. Publishing the local results immediately after the local counts are done by hanging them out at the front of each election place would certainly help to bring more clarity. Then, when the central tally is made and publish together with all local results on a website and in newspapers, everyone can compare and recalculate the totals.
We still do not know how much the whole protest was initiated from the outside. Those $475 million of U.S. government money invested into regime change in Iran certainly had some effects we may never learn about. What is certain is that official 'western' propaganda media like BBC Farsi and Voice of America's Farsi service did their very best to prepare and support the election fraud claims in Iran. The general 'western' mass media followed that claim to influence the 'western' public. Their lockstep has reached an amazing perfection that Hitler's best troops would have been proud of.
This week has been bad for Iran's international image in the 'west', but over time the public will forget the issue. Therefore the people who want to attack Iran are preparing a new campaign. Lang again:
The war parties in the US and Israel have taken up a new propaganda theme. They are now saying that a "military coup" by the IRGC and other "radicals" has taken place and that the resulting regime is no longer under the influence and control of the Shia 'ulema. The new theme insists that the new "coup junta" symbolically headed by Khamenei is even more dangerous and more likely to rashly use nuclear weapons as an expression of their lunacy.
This is an obvious attempt to twist the situation in the best agitprop tradition for the purpose of obtaining American popular consensus for war against Iran.
Ahmadinajad is a fool and he will undoubtedly play into the hands of the propagandists.
Lang knows the neocons, but I am not so sure about his judgment of Ahmadinejad. Ahmedinejad is first and foremost a smart politician. He can not be reelected as president and now has no pressing need to keep up the vote winning rhetoric he used over the last years. I expect him to now take a much calmer and more realist approach towards international issues.
Moon of Alabama has seen a lot of comments on the Iran election issue. I am really proud of all your comments even when, in the heat of the discussions, some drifted too much towards personal accusations. The various threads and discussion certainly gave room for everyone to look at every side of the issue. What counts in the end are facts. Opinions can be derived from those. In my view Arnold Evans' conclusion is very fact based and his opinion will likely survive historic scrutiny.
To the people of Iran I wish the very best. I hope your wounds, partly deepened by outer interference, will heal fast. Stay proud and confident in your abilities and independence.
Labels: Media Theatrics, Warmongering
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