Shiite-Christian alliance shakes Lebanon politics

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AP. here

" It's an unusual alliance in a country where your religion usually determines your politics: Christians siding with Shiite Muslim militant Hezbollah. But it has shaken up Lebanon's politics, and backers say it represents the future of this long divided nation.

The coalition is also strong enough it could bring the anti-Israel and anti-U.S. Hezbollah to power in next week's parliamentary elections. That possibility has turned this election into a fierce battle for Lebanon's Christians....

Indeed, Lebanon's Shiites and Christians make an odd fit. .....three years after its formation, the Hezbollah-Aoun alliance has not only survived but is going strong. Also backed by Lebanon's ethnic Armenian Christians, it has a strong chance of winning a majority in the 128-seat parliament next week. That would enable it to form a new government, removing the current one dominated by pro-Western factions.

The one thing that might prevent the coalition's victory is a number of Christian candidates billing themselves as independents, aligned with neither Hezbollah nor the pro-Western camp. They may be able to draw enough votes to keep some Christian seats out of Aoun's hands.

The durability of the Aoun-Hezbollah coalition has stunned many who had thought it a cynical Aoun move that would quickly fall apart. "This is more than a tactical alliance," said Bilal Saab, a Lebanon expert with the Brookings Institution in Washington. "But what it is exactly we still don't know."

Backers depict the alliance as a blow to politics-as-usual, saying it points to a more democratic, less sectarian political future.

Since Lebanon's independence in 1943, politics here have been solidly sectarian, feudal and clannish: Chiefs of powerful families in each sect lead the main political parties, and their followers almost invariably vote for them.Aoun and Hezbollah say they are breaking those traditional lines of power. They campaign on promises of reform, playing on widespread frustration with political bickering....

But rather than breaking sectarianism, the alliance may represent a cold-eyed assessment of Lebanon's new sectarian demographics..... Christians, Shiites and Sunnis are believed to make up roughly a third each of the estimated 4 million population. Shiites are thought to be the largest single sect, and Hezbollah is undoubtedly the most organized and well-armed faction in the country.

So hitching their star to Hezbollah may make sense to many Christians. Hezbollah's military strength and Shiites' sheer numbers give protection to Christian allies, who preserve a say in power... "The alliance plucked Hezbollah out of political marginalization," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a Hezbollah expert. "Without it, it would have still be Shiites versus the rest of the country."

Posted by G, Z, & or B at 9:46 AM