Red Light, Green Light: Establishing US Levers of Pressure on Iran

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INSS Insight, via the Pulse.

"... The importance of the green light issue is not whether an Israeli attack is one step closer - in fact Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has signaled that he will go along with Obama's engagement approach until the end of the year - but rather what it means in terms of the broader message the US is trying to convey to Iran. There are indications that the Obama administration is attempting to fine-tune its strategy on Iran, and quietly put in place different levers for pressuring Iran if no diplomatic movement is in sight. When the "green light" remarks are assessed within the context of other high-level statements and developments over the past 10 days, this trend becomes even more apparent.

Obama's current dilemma is that while he has made it clear that he remains committed to negotiations, Iran has still not responded to the US offer. ....

So what to do when your hand remains outstretched and nobody takes it? How to introduce pressure without seeming to undermine a firm commitment to negotiations? The set of subtle and admittedly somewhat confusing messages that have recently been issued most likely reflect the Administration's attempt to do just that. And the surprising remarks on Israel are perhaps not as surprising when viewed in this context.....

Finally, there are signs that the sanctions option - the traditional lever of pressure in cases of nuclear proliferation - is being revisited. Obama is still struggling not to be perceived as supporting pressure in a way that might undermine his intention to engage, and according to media reports, he was reluctant to have the G-8 meeting decide on immediate sanctions on Iran for this reason. However, the meeting did result in setting a jointly agreed-upon late September deadline for assessing progress on negotiations with Iran. ....

While these indications that levers of pressure are being put in place are a positive development, the subtle approach has its limits, and Iran will no doubt need to see a stronger message coming from the international community. Obama's attempts to straddle both absolute commitment to engagement and increased pressure on Iran will get more and more difficult to pull off. At some point soon he will have to simply state that without pressure, Iran is unlikely to be serious about negotiations.

It should be highly indicative that even when Obama took steps to address Iran's sensitivities, in order not to be perceived as interfering in its internal affairs, he was accused of doing just that. The lesson is that Iran's attitude toward the US is driven by what Iran seeks to achieve, and not perceptions of US accommodation. In fact, accommodation can be interpreted as a weakness to be exploited. To succeed on the Iranian nuclear issue, the US will ultimately have to embrace its own interests and follow through with determination."

Posted by G, Z, & or B at 3:42 AM

US hawks want terrorists to take down Iran govt.