"Maliki's anti-Syrian blasts earned him respect from .. Saudi Arabia"

Link

Ignatius in the WaPo, here

"How can America help a fragile Iraq as U.S. troops and influence there decline? The Obama administration should revisit one of the good ideas proposed by the 2006 Baker-Hamilton commission -- namely an "international support group" that can draw together the neighboring countries to keep Iraq from blowing apart.

The Baker-Hamilton recommendations are mostly forgotten, swept away by President George W. Bush's 2007 surge of U.S. troops. That certainly improved security, but the recent bombings in Iraq are a reminder that the surge didn't usher in a new era of peace and love. Political reconciliation is still more slogan than reality -- and the neighbors are more a lurking menace than Baghdad's partners.

This is where America still has the leverage to help, by drawing together all the volatile powers on Iraq's borders -- Syria, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and, yes, Iran. A regional security framework will aid Baghdad, but it can also reduce tensions in an area that resembles a ticking time bomb.

In the "be careful what you wish for" department is Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. For several years, the United States has wanted him to be a strong leader who could assert Iraqi sovereignty. But Maliki's erratic behavior in recent weeks has complicated the regional dynamic. Rather than working to solve problems with his neighbors, he's making new ones -- despite U.S. efforts to mediate....

Not so fast, protested Maliki. He warned Chris Hill, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, that policing Iraq's border was an issue for Iraq, not America.......The Maliki-Assad summit meeting "was a failure," says one Arab official.

Then things exploded, quite literally. ........

But several senior U.S. officials say that the evidence doesn't support Maliki's charges. Instead, they say, the Aug. 19 bombings were most likely the work of al-Qaeda in Iraq. "Given everything that we know, it seems very unlikely the plot was hatched in Syria," says one U.S. official.

Why is Maliki picking a fight with Damascus? The most likely answer is Iraqi domestic politics. With parliamentary elections scheduled for January, Maliki wants to show that he's a tough guy -- and it's easier for him to stand up to Syria (and Washington) than, say, to Iran. His anti-Syrian blasts are also said to have earned him grudging respect from other regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia.

U.S.-Syrian bilateral relations are still moving forward........the two countries are discussing a gradual relaxation of existing sanctions against Damascus.

What's missing is a regional security framework that would allow postwar Iraq gradually to regain its place with Syria, Iran and the rest as a power player. It's the last big thing that America can do for Iraqi security as the United States withdraws, and, mercifully, it doesn't involve any troops. Henry Kissinger would be on the plane already. Any takers in the Obama national security team?"

Posted by G, Z, & or B at 10:45 AM