Friday-Lunch- Club
"New data from credible private polls of the Egyptian and the urban Saudi public show strikingly high levels of support -- especially among Saudis -- for tough action against Iran's nuclear program. At the same time, these findings demonstrate clearly that economic concerns, rather than foreign policy or domestic political issues, dominate the popular agenda in both countries.......
In both Saudi Arabia and Egypt, respondents were asked: "If Iran does not accept new limits on its nuclear program, would you approve or disapprove of stronger sanctions against Iran by around the end of this year?" Significantly, a solid majority of Saudis, 57 percent, favored tougher sanctions. Moreover, the percentage "strongly" in favor was twice as high as those strongly opposed (22 percent vs. 11 percent).
Though surprisingly "hawkish," these findings are broadly in line with those from GCC respondents in the online Doha Debates poll. And although that poll did not reflect a representative sample (it was limited to a segment of online users that was 80 percent male), it can be considered roughly indicative of sentiment among an important, attentive public in the Arab Gulf states. The findings show a very high level of concern about Iran's nuclear program: 83 percent of the respondents believe that Tehran is planning to build nuclear weapons despite its claims of peaceful intent, while just over half (53 percent) think Iran would actually use nuclear weapons. Of this latter group, three-fifths believe the target would be Saudi Arabia or another GCC state; one-fifth, Israel.
In contrast, a mere 20 percent of the respondents trust the IAEA to deal with Iran's nuclearization, and only about a third (37 percent) believe that Iranian nuclear weapons would offer the region a "balance of power."
The Egyptian public is significantly less supportive than the Saudis of additional sanctions against Iran's nuclear program: 43 percent in favor, 53 percent opposed. Even so, the level of support for such sanctions is substantial, and higher than that recorded in the handful of other, less comprehensive, surveys on the subject. Only modest variation in this close balance was recorded by the demographics of age, education, occupation, or social class.
These latest findings show only a six-point decline in Egyptian support for sanctions since this question was asked in late June during the post-election crackdown in Iran. The passage of time, fading of media images, and imminence of the stated year-end deadline likely contributed to the minor erosion in Egyptian popular acceptance of new Iranian sanctions. Iran's purported willingness to compromise on the nuclear issue in October and early November, and not yet retracted by poll time, may also have been a contributing factor.....
Implications for U.S. Policy
Taken by itself, the analysis of these data is not sufficient ground for major policy changes, but it should be factored into current discussion of the relevant issues. For example, as Washington prepares a push for tougher sanctions against Iran, it can encourage Arab governments to participate more actively by pointing to the high level of Arab "street" support for this initiative. On the counterterrorism and counterinsurgency fronts, whether in Iraq, Afghanistan, or elsewhere, these findings suggest that the United States should be more concerned about Arab funding for groups other than al-Qaeda, which enjoy greater popular sympathy today. And on a more positive note, by offering practical economic partnerships and support, rather than by emphasizing regional political conflicts, the United States now has greater prospects of appealing to Arab publics."
Posted by G, Z, or B at 6:45 PM
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