"The actual end of the Iraq Project"

Via Friday-Lunch-Club

"The Kagans, fit, beautiful & caring ... strolling in

Adam Silverman at SST/ here

"Sir, This is, I think, the actual end of the Iraq Project.

My team mates and I tracked a very limited type of this behavior prior to the provincial elections, but it never took off. Instead the Shi'a majority parties manipulated IHEC and the actual election process by using an open list/proportional representation system. It didn't give them everything they wanted, but it was much more subtle than just rolling people up or banning them from participating - both of which garnered a lot of negative publicity, no one understood it (I had to repeatedly explain why it was a bad system to the "election" specialist that the Department of State sent to assist our brigade's ePRT), and as a result no one put a stop to it. At this stage there are four dynamics going on:

1) Maliki is trying to consolidate as much power as possible and coup proof himself from every one, including his Shi'a coalition partners of ISCI/Badr,

2) The Iraqi Shi'a leaders (other than those in the Awakenings), as well as their Iranian benefactors, no longer perceive the US or the US led coalition as being unable to do anything about this, therefore they can start the endgame and try to run the rest of the table even before we're out,

3) the Sunnis, as well as the Awakenings oriented Shi'a and everyone else in Iraq that wasn't thrilled with the Government of Iraq has just had the impression that we are feckless allies, which began with the manner of the transition of the SOI to Iraqi government control, confirmed. Yes Iraq is a sovereign state and we're there as advisors only at this stage, but these electoral/political purges demonstrate that the free, open, and fair elections that we have been touting for years are all just words, and

4) this loss of face and public shaming for the US and its efforts, the roots of which were laid several years ago, we'll be viewed throughout the region. It'll have implications in Afghanistan and in Israel. About a month ago I did a guest piece for Professor Cole's Informed Comment blog on the elections, based on a comparative analysis from what I'd learned from observing the politicking and politics around the provincial elections. I reckoned on the parties in power going the subtle route again by manipulating the electoral process; by being so brazen it shows just how toothless they think we actually are at this stage and our likely inability to do anything about this is going to prove them right. "

Adam L. Silverman, PhD was the Field Social Scientist and Team Leader for Human Terrain Team Iraq 6 (HTT IZ6) assigned to the 2BCT/1AD from OCT 2007 to OCT 2008. Upon his redeployment to the US he served as the US Army Human Terrain System Strategic Advisor through June 2009. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the 2BCT/1AD, the US Army Human Terrain System, or the US Army.

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