In the last twenty four hours Israel and Syria were sending messages to each other explaining what kind of war they are expecting and which reactions would happen before, through, and after a possible war between the two states.The incident started with a statement which Ehud Barack made about the possibility of going to war with Syria if the last does not sign a peace agreement with Israel.
After this statement Syrians responded several times by saying that any possible war with Israel will not be similar to wars which happened in the past. The most important development which happened was that the Syrians threatened for the first time that any confrontation with Israel will include all the fronts and that this time Israeli cities will be targeted too.
Syria’s words express the ability of the missiles which the Syrians and Hezbollah have nowadays and can reach deep targets inside Israel.
Minister Lieberman invested in complicating the situation by threatening President Bashar Alassad that any attempt from his side to attack Israel will cost him his chair and regime in Syria. Many Israelis criticized the statements which were made by the Israeli governing officials and described it as a dangerous act. Syrian and Hamas officials described the Israeli statements as a sign of Israel’s weakness and troubled internal situation.
Although it is clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government has been suffering from weakness in its foreign policy, the Israeli statements are not really far from reality and are not only a sign of the disagreement between Netanyahu, Barack, and Lieberman. The current situation between Syria and Israel is far away from any kind of peace.
The lack of an agreement between the two countries obliges us to say that they are still at war. Even though the borders are quiet and there are no missiles flying the air, the two countries did not sign any agreement and keep on watching each other to be prepared for any action.
Israel’s current government is definitely not ready to withdraw from the Golan Heights and Syria is for sure not ready to go to any new negotiations without counting the former achievements which were reached. The Israel-Syrian example can show us how sensitive is the situation in the Middle East; any statement would develop into a more serious incident. Not only that Israel is in a mess because of its government which definitely has no idea about dealing with foreign affairs, but it also acts in patterns which will lead it to a serious confrontation with one of its “enemies” in the area.
The lack of any improvement in the peace process with the Palestinians, the siege on Gaza, the pressure which is increasing within the Arabs who live inside Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank, and the Iranian threat…all of these are reasons which will make Israel go to war.
It is well known that Israeli former governments preferred to go to war before the other side but this time it is not that easy. Israel has been trying to make the other side act in order to react but it seems that the opponents are cleverer than before.
The assassination of Mughnyeh, who used to be an important leader in Hezbollah, the continuous assassinations in Gaza and the West Bank, the assassinations which took place inside Iran, and the late assassination of Almamdouh, who used to be one of Hamas leaders are all informal Israeli actions authorized by the Israeli state and made by its intelligence services only to make the other side react and finally get a reason for a real wide attack which Israel wants to make.
Hamas and Hezbollah are reacting smartly and want to mind a confrontation outside the occupied territories. It may be true that they lack abilities to act internationally but I doubt this since they both have wide nets and connections. The reason they do not act is Iran’s nuclear plan which will soon be ready.
Any serious confrontation with Israel will cause serious threats which would prevent Iran from going on. Accomplishing the Iranian Nuclear project will change the Middle East map and its politics. Therefore the best choice is to bare more Israeli attacks and react wisely without giving the latter a reason to launch a wide attack which will include Hezbollah, Syria, and Hamas.
The question is whether this game will last forever and whether future threatening statements will not make the situation go out of control. Israel’s strategy of directing the conflict with Arabs applies from it to act once a serious threat exists. It is only a few months ago when the Israeli air force attacked Syrian buildings which were “suspected” of nuclear activity so how would it react once a real threat exists. Therefore will Israel mind a direct confrontation with those who are considered a threat on its security while an extreme leadership is taking the lead? I don’t think so.
February 4th, 2010 Ziad Khalil Abu Zayyad
River to Sea
Uprooted Palestinian
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