Will failure to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict mean a new Cold War in the Middle East?

Via friday-Lunch-Club

Josh Landis in FP/ here

Is a new Cold War taking shape in the Middle East? It is not hard to understand why skeptics believe it may be. President Dmitry Medvedev visited Syria on Monday, the first ever visit by a Russian or Soviet head of state. Syrians are excited. They are hoping that Russia will resume its old role as armorer and advocate of those states prepared to "defend Arab rights" and resist U.S. hegemony.

When Barack Obama first became U.S. president, Syrians were hopeful that he would break the mold of U.S. policy and carry through with his promise to finally end the Arab-Israeli conflict based on land for peace. To Syrians, this means they will get back the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967; it means a two-state solution for the Palestinians. For the past several months, Syrian authorities have been telling anyone who will listen in Washington that the one thing they want from the United States is help getting back the Golan. If Syria gets back its land, it will modify its alliances and end its enmity toward Israel, allowing for a new relationship with the United States. Today, that hope seems to be all but dashed.

It is in this context that we can understand the events of the last few months that have ended with renewed threats of war between Israel and Syria, the rapid deterioration of U.S.-Syria relations, and Syria's effort to strengthen a system of alliances that it hopes will right the terrible imbalance in power between it and Israel -- an imbalance which the United States supports and which Syria blames for Israel's intransigence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that "the Golan will remain in our hands." His refusal to stop expanding settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank in the face of U.S. urging suggests that the two-state solution for the Palestinians is doubtful.

Syrians are convinced that the Obama administration will cave into Israeli pressure to soft-pedal the peace process and put the best face on the status quo. With congressional electioneering in full swing and the presidential election not far behind, all signs are that Obama is feeling compelled to patch up frayed relations with Israel. This will be done at Syria's expense. Hence, Israel and the United States joined voices in accusing Syria of supplying long-range missiles to Hezbollah. Also last week, Washington renewed sanctions on Syria. Why? Because U.S. officials said Syria continues "to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States." The renewal of sanctions only reminded Syrians of how intractable U.S.-Syria enmity is and how dependent any improvement of relations will be on a Syria-Israel peace. This is why Syrian authorities have put so much hope in peace with Israel. They believe that if Syria can negotiate peace and get back the Golan, all other problems, such as the U.S.-Syria relationship and sanctions, will fix themselves with minimal tinkering.

So what are Damascus's options in the face of Obama's climb down and Israel's refusal to trade land for peace?

Damascus insists that it will not give up its claim to the Golan or its right to resist occupation. This means arming Hezbollah and Hamas. Getting Russia on board Syria's efforts to resist will be key, as Russia is the most likely country to help with more sophisticated missiles and anti-tank weapons, as well as anti-aircraft defense. From Syria's point of view, it must improve its ability to defend against Israel's periodic incursions and raise the cost of Israeli refusal to return the Golan.

Syria is doing everything it can to build up what it is calling a "northern alliance" between Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. This is the primary building block in Syria's strategy for countering Israel's overwhelming military superiority. Rapidly improving relations with Turkey are at the heart of the alliance and breaking out of Syria's narrow dependency on Iran.... A spokesman at the Russian Embassy in Damascus told AFP, "We are seeking to recover lost ground with old friends." On the agenda of Russia-Syria talks are the Mideast peace process, Iran's nuclear program, and the bilateral arms trade between the two countries.

(more/ here)

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