"the LAF is a long term investment that will pay off in terms of US, Israeli & Lebanese interests..."

Via Friday-Lunch-Club

CNAS's Ab:

"...The United States is always contrasted with Iran in Lebanon. The latter, the argument goes, has a coherent 30-year plan for protecting its interests in Lebanon while U.S. policy fluctuates depending on who happens to be in charge in Washington.

This is only partly true, though: recognizing that Lebanon is a weak state, the United States has a long-running train-and-equip mission to build up key institutions within Lebanon, starting with the LAF. The idea is that as the security services of the nation grow stronger, the perceived need for violent non-state actors such as Hizballah will grow weaker. Now this is fundamentally a huge bet by successive U.S. administrations, both Democrat and Republican. But it's one that's grounded in a pretty basic understanding of nation-states and their ideal characteristics: Violent non-state actors are thriving because the state is too weak to control a monopoly of violence? Okay, well let's make the state stronger by strengthening institutions.

You can argue the U.S. project in Lebanon has failed, but I think it's too early to tell. In fact, paradoxically, if the LAF is seen by the Lebanese people as aggressively protecting Lebanon from the Zionist Entity, they might start to ask more loudly why it's necessary that Lebanon be home as well to a belligerent Iranian-backed militia that periodically precipitates billions of dollars in damages to the state through its adventurism.

More fundamentally, legislators are going to have to get used to the fact that we are arming two states that don't very much like each other. But as long as we maintain Israel's qualitative military edge, I don't think anyone in Israel will mind a stronger LAF. And a stronger LAF results in both a stronger Lebanese state and in a useful proxy in the fight against transnational terror groups.

So take the long view, Congress: remember what happened when we cut off all aid to the Pakistani military after a spat over that country's nuclear program and how we really wish we had not done that today? The LAF is a long-term investment, it will not reap immediate dividends, and the dividends it does reap might seem confusing -- such as a LAF crowing about its ability to defend Lebanon against Israel -- at first but will ultimately pay off in terms of U.S., Lebanese and Israeli interests."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 6:35 AM

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian