Why Turkey?

"friday-lunch-club"

"...But doesn't Turkey need the United States? Yes, but just as American banks were too big to fail, American support for Turkey is too big to be taken away. The problem is not that Turkey no longer benefits from its alliance with the United States, but that the kinds of support that Washington provides to Ankara are not easily leveraged. 

First and foremost, as a NATO member Turkey enjoys American security guarantees. While a full-scale invasion by a hostile state is an unlikely scenario, NATO's invocation of its common defense clause following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks shows that it still pays to be a NATO member. Turkey also falls under the American nuclear security umbrella and hosts approximately 100 American nuclear weapons on its soil (the exact number is a secret). Turkey's opposition to recent proposals to remove those weapons demonstrates their enduring value to Ankara. And while Turkey may be feeling good about its economic performance at the moment, economies fluctuate, and the United States has on several occasions provided both bilateral economic support and loans through the International Monetary Fund to bail Turkey out, most recently in 2002. While Turkey values its NATO membership, its protection under the United States' nuclear umbrella, and Washington's economic support, the United States is too reliant on Turkey to credibly threaten to take any of these sources of support away. This dynamic was on display again in August when reports surfaced that President Obama told Turkish Prime Minister Erodgan that the American-made Predator drones Turkey wants to procure to fight Kurdish insurgents might not be forthcoming if Turkey does not change its policies toward Israel and Iran. It is not surprising that both the White House and Ankara immediately refuted the report in the strongest possible terms.

The point here is not to criticize Turkey's foreign policy choices, but to show why the United States lacks the leverage to shape those choices. In the short-term, Washington must placate Ankara given its reliance on Turkey in so many areas and the risks associated with alienating its ally. But over the long-term, the United States must craft a more restrained foreign policy that leaves it less reliant on and in a stronger position vis-à-vis its regional allies. Otherwise, Washington will find that Turkey is not the only country that can cooperate just enough to keep American support forthcoming...."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 4:37 AM

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