He expected a War on April 2008
"According to Murr, this war is not with Lebanon, it is will Hizballah. ..... As such, Murr is trying to ascertain how long an offensive would be required to clean out Hizballah in the Beka'a."
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER
2. (S) Charge, Defense Attache and ODC Chief met with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Elias Murr on March 10 at his home in Rabieh. The atmosphere of the meeting was cordial and friendly.
5. (S) As for the areas further north in Lebanon such as Keserwan and the Metn, Murr confirmed that Shia are renting in high numbers there because they feel that Israel is going to attack soon. Such action could take place as early as April 2008, he warned. ....Murr also told us that Hassan Nasrallah's cousin has moved his family out of the southern suburbs, the Dahiyya, and rented a chalet in the resort town of Farayya for a year. According to Murr, this means that Nasrallah is on high alert. In addition to renting homes in these areas, Hizballah is making many concessions to the Christians who live in these areas. In a meeting three weeks ago between top Hizballah officials such as Wafiq Safa and March 14 members at MoD Headquarters in Yarze, Hizballah agreed to all of the Christians demands. The two most notable concessions were that Hizballah will not place any signage with Nabih Berri or Hassan Nasrallah's image in these locations and that Hizballah will not have a visible presence in these areas...... During this same meeting, March 14 members learned that Hizballah has rockets that can fly over 200 kilometers.
7. (S) Murr told us that Hizballah is not "internally convinced" that it can win this time. It was internally convinced that it could win in 2006. Murr predicted that Hizballah's war with Israel will not be like 2006 .... Murr harbors no illusion that they will not get bogged down in the village a second time. Instead, Murr thinks they will bypass strongholds in villages and pursue the main forces, the rockets. "I am sure Hizballah is scared and they are preparing for a severe lesson this time," Murr said. ...... (S) Murr related that Saudi journalist Ghassan Charbel of the Al-Hayat newspaper recently returned to Beirut from Damascus where he met with Bashar Al-Assad. .....He does not see anything at all happening this year in Lebanon, Charbel had said. Murr seemed to think otherwise, reporting that Syria has recalled 250,000 migrant agricultural workers from Lebanon who also serve in the Syrian military reserves....... Returning to the theme of a wary Hizballah, Murr told us that "they (Hizballah) are scared, terrorized. They know the Israelis will not lose again." Murr thinks that Ehud Barak is a very different Minister of Defense... Additionally, President Bush is coming to Israel in May, so they think that this new war must be completed by that time.
13. (S) When asked what role Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun is playing right now, Murr deadpanned that he is "going insane." Retired BG Fouad Ashkar, an Aoun advisor dating to Aoun's time as Lebanese Army Commander, came to see Murr on March 9 to discuss weapons permits for Aoun's bodyguards. Murr told Ashkar that he was authorized only ten permits. Aoun had recently contacted Murr's father to try and pressure the MinDef into agreeing to fifty weapons permits. A defiant Murr told Ashkar to "go get some of your Hizballah suicide bombers to serve as bodyguards," the sub-context being that perhaps Michel Aoun would get blown up along the way......
18. (S) Making clear that he was not responsible for passing messages to Israel, Murr told us,...if Israel has to bomb all of these places in the Shia areas as a matter of operational concern, that is Hizballah's problem. According to Murr, this war is not with Lebanon, it is will Hizballah. ..... As such, Murr is trying to ascertain how long an offensive would be required to clean out Hizballah in the Beka'a. The LAF will move to pre-position food, money, and water with these units so they can stay on their bases when Israel comes for Hizballah--discreetly, Murr added. (S) Murr also gave guidance to Sleiman that the LAF should not get involved "when Israel comes." .... that he promised Sleiman the political cover for LAF inaction. .....For Murr, the LAF's strategic objective was to survive a three week war "completely intact" and able to take over once Hizballah's militia has been destroyed. ......
River to Sea
Uprooted Palestinian
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