"..The regime is bidding for time, but if today is an example, times is not in its side. .."

Via-Friday-Lunch-Club

 

"Egypt Today entered a higher level of the unfolding crisis. New segments of the population joined the protests with workers in the Suez Canal, government services and some private industries calling for an open ended strike. At the same time the vice president Gen Omar Sulliman concluded a meeting with editors of newspapers during which he dismissed any idea of the President leaving and of any immediate changes to satisfy the protesters. He refused suspending the emergency laws and promised a gradual move to reform. Mubarak and Sulliman do not understand that while reform indeed needs sometime, time is becoming a rare commodity in the current situation and something should be done to calm down the street. But what?

The only demand that could have a profound effect on the current dynamics is the departure of the President. Sulliman does not want want to take this step. but there is something else he does not seem to appreciate enough. While the protests expand geographically and socially, the regime does not have any real muscle to force order. Using the armed forces will put in risk the cohesion of this institution. The forces of the ministry of interior have evaporated. That is if using force against such huge masses is of any effect.

Therefore, the two sides are determined to carry on. The regime is bidding on time. But if today is an example, times is not in its side. But there is a question about the sustainability of such a huge popular thrust so to speak. Many here in Egypt believe that the wave will go on and increase. I still have doubts though I think the the balance is tilting towards a continuation of the protest.

The problem here is that the longer the confrontation goes, the greater the damage is to both sides. To explain further the meaning of "damage" in the case of the popular movement, one needs only to examine the current role of the Muslem Brotherhood (MBs). Today in Alexandria for example a law professor and a "Brother" said bluntly that the search for a Constitutional way out is "nonsense"because "there is now a revolutionary legitimacy". This revolutionary legitimacy, he said, abrogates the current constitution hence any solution based on it. The guy was addressing hundreds of thousands of protesters whom I think did not understand what he means. But the meaning is obvious. If the current constitution is based on the pale interpretation of the separation between Church and state then it might be useful to start talking about this foggy "revolutionary legitimacy". Later we may hear that the Quran is the only constitution or something like that. Another example of the damage happening to this popular uprising comes from a quick view to Tahrir Square at night. When the large masses of population go home those who remain are mainly the young urban educated youth who started this whole thing and the MBs. The youth try desperately to confront the logic of the MBs in hundred of "discussion rings" where a hundred or so of participants debate different issues central among them is the difference between the "civil state"-i.e.secular, and the Islamic state. The MBs adopt a diluted version of the Islamic state as known to sholars may be to absorb the position of the youth and "educate" them that there is in fact "no difference" between what they want ant the "true" - i.e.diluted- Islamic state. No one of a higher intellectual and cultural background is there to face that. The youth are fed up with the heavy "educational" hand of the MBs but they need them to fight with...Therefore, the longer it goes the more damage is incurred to the movement of the population.

As for the damage to the regime it is also obvious particularly in the case of Gen Sulliman. With every day passing the General loses credibility with the population. As these people will not "evaporate" like what happened with the interior ministry. When all dust settles there will be still people. The same who waited for Sulliman to do something in vain. With the continuation of the confrontation the risk is higher. Sullimans started talking about saboteurs and "foreign elements" among the protesters at the Tahrir square. That might be the early step for a bold move against the people at the square...... things can get much worse."  Yusuf al-Misry

Posted by G, Z, or B at 8:52 PM

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