Day after another, new scandals are revealed by the famous US cables, known as WikiLeaks…
On Monday, Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar published new cables, showing how some so-called March 14 officials did not waste any opportunity to defame the Resistance without making use of it.
For instance, the cable quoted Defense Minister in the caretaker government Elias Murr as claiming that he, alongside the Future Party leader Saad Hariri and former Prime Minister Fouad Saniora, was threatened of assassination by… Hezbollah!
The WikiLeaks cable dated May 14, 2008 reported about a meeting between Murr, General Martin Dempsey, Major General Robert Allardice, Director of Strategy, Plans and Policy for the US Military Central Command, and former US Ambassador to Lebanon Michele Sison.
HEZBOLLAH WANTS TO SHIFT BALANCE
Murr allegedly told his guests that there is not an army in the world that can conduct a coup d’état in 12 hours without significant preparation. The surveillance cameras that were placed at the airport by Hezbollah, used in conjunction with radios, were part of a larger plan by Hezbollah to shift the balance of power in the government, he claimed. For previous political assassinations, he explained, Hezbollah has typically spent two to three months monitoring its target, and then the last few weeks in closer scrutiny before attacking.
Murr noted that the airport cameras, stolen in September 2007 from Transportation Minister Mohamad Safadi's private aviation business office and installed on April 23, 2008, were positioned to watch private jet traffic. They were providing intelligence for an imminent assassination attempt.
He expressed belief that March 14 Sunni leader Saad Hariri (whose name is often mentioned as the next prime minister) and current Prime Minister Fouad Saniora (also Sunni) were the top targets, and he himself was next on Hezbollah’s list. He noted that all three had been likely to travel in the next few weeks.
The coup indicates that Hezbollah wanted to do something to bring down the Sunnis, Murr claimed. If Saad were killed, the Hariri dynasty would be over, and Sunni fighters would take to the street. He continued, Hezbollah would have a reason to use arms to defend itself because it will have pointed to Al-Qaeda as the mastermind of the assassination.
Murr supported this hypothesis by revealing that he had received reports that Al-Qaeda was preparing an attack on a plane over Beirut International Airport. Murr highlighted that these intelligence reports were coming from the LAF G-2 (military intelligence) office in Dahiyeh, the southern suburb of Beirut. Murr concluded that someone was feeding false information to the G-2 to prepare the atmosphere.
An alibi was further established when Al Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is purportedly financed by Iran, announced last month that Lebanon "will play a pivotal role in the fight," Murr posited. Then, when the Cabinet responded to the cameras on May 5 by transferring the head of airport security, Hezbollah seized the opportunity to launch its coup, he claimed.
"The LAF did not do the job like it needed to," Murr assessed. He said that the army cannot enter into a civil war because it would be split. Another weak point, according to Murr, is that the LAF's current commander, General Michel Sleiman, is also the only presidential candidate. Once a general has his eye on becoming the president, Murr said, he can no longer take a stand against any single group. "He will play the hero to the end," Murr continued. Sleiman was playing two roles, Murr relayed, he was first trying to make a balance between the victorious Shia and the defeated Sunnis, while also serving as an army commander afraid of Hezbollah and of splitting the army.
Murr qualified his assessment of the LAF by recounting past LAF achievements, most notably Nahr al-Barid, and concluded that the LAF can be counted on again, if the internal political process is functional. He added that its future success is further guaranteed if the next LAF G-2 Intelligence Director, LAF commander, and Defense Minister are allies.
"I can't say I am disappointed (with the LAF's performance) because I always knew what I could expect. Besides, every army goes through a turbulent period," Murr said. "I could take one of two approaches now. I could criticize the LAF and explain its faults to the world. Or, I could acknowledge that the LAF had a difficult moment, and now it is time to equip, train, and develop a forward-looking program."
MURR DISAPPOINTED
Murr relayed that he had heard from politicians, LAF officers, and ordinary citizens that they are disappointed in what they see as a lack of support from the US. Some believe they have "been left in Saigon," Murr added. He said that he himself had not been expecting more because he understands how the "US agenda can't move according to Saad and Walid Jumblatt's agendas." Nevertheless, he said he was realistic and with his feet on the ground, it is time to move forward.
Murr urged Dempsey (whose next meeting was with Sleiman) to give the impression to Sleiman that the US is very serious about Lebanon and will continue to train and equip the LAF. Tell him that this "incident" will not change US policy towards the LAF, Murr encouraged. If the LAF doesn't have hope, it will go to Hezbollah, he warned. Right now, we need to have hope, a positive morale, and more time in order to survive and ultimately win, Murr rallied.
MURR WANTS WEAKENED HEZBOLLAH
In response to Dempsey's interest in what would prompt the LAF to stand up to Hezbollah, Murr outlined three possible regional scenarios which would result in a weakened Hezbollah, and consequently enable the LAF to take control. First, he described, Iran announces it has nuclear weapons and the international community conducts military strikes taking out its nuclear facilities. Additionally, the US (or international community) threatens or attacks Syria. Hezbollah is consequently weakened without its power and funding sources and the GOL will feel emboldened to discuss Hezbollah arms, he claimed.
Second, Murr continued, war could break out again between Israel and Hezbollah, and Hezbollah is defeated. The LAF takes over in the south and the GOL is again ready to discuss disarming Hezbollah. Murr commented that he did not see the likelihood of this scenario.
LET’S MOVE HEZBOLLAH TO GROUP OF GANGSTERS!
The third scenario takes a long-term approach during which the LAF is strengthened step-by-step while "waiting for better days." Murr cautioned that Hezbollah is also brainstorming now about its strategy, and this long-term approach could be a reinforcement race. "The best day for Lebanon will be when we move Hezbollah from a resistance movement to a group of gangsters." The goal of this scenario is to wait until the dynamics have changed to favor the GOL and the LAF, and then the empowered GOL and LAF would take on Hezbollah. However, Murr warned, this strategy would take a long time.
In these three scenarios, the premise is for Hezbollah to be weakened by external events while at the same time, the LAF has been strengthened, Murr said. With GOL resolve, the LAF can then take on Hezbollah, he added. When asked whether the LAF would use attack helicopters, if the US provided them, against Hezbollah, Murr responded, "The stronger the LAF is, the weaker Hezbollah is."
HARIRI INEXPERIENCED
Having argued that a strong LAF could ultimately stand up to Hezbollah, Murr continued laying out his strategy, focusing on the GOL's role. Murr said that Saad Hariri, who could be the next PM, is inexperienced and would need strong ministers in key positions in the new government, "or else he will fail."
According to the cable, Murr seemed to accept the ten-ten-ten formula for dividing the cabinet, if ten seats are for "strong" majority candidates and the president's ten are for "respectable, strong" individuals. = According to Murr, the opposition is determined to install its own people as the ministers of defense and interior so "there's no one who can say 'no' to any strategy to strengthen the LAF." He explained that the defense strategy is proposed to the Ministry of Defense, which then has the final word. Therefore, he deduced, it is less dangerous to give the opposition the Ministry of Interior than Defense.
While acknowledging that both positions were considered essential and it would be a "catastrophe" if the opposition held both, Murr downplayed the Interior Ministry (which oversees many of the politicized issues including electoral law, voter registration, and the Internal Security Forces). He told his guests that when he was previously the Minister of Interior, his sister lost an election by one vote, concluding, "Trust me! The Minister can't change election results! It's hard to cheat, I know!"
Moreover, he said, there should be international observers for the summer 2009 parliamentary elections. "Ideally, we win the parliamentary elections, and have a strong LAF Commander and G-2," he hoped. He concluded by stressing that it is an investment in the future to strengthen the LAF, regardless of what is happening on the ground.
This strategy requires teamwork, Murr stated. "You don't want to invest in the LAF if it is between the hands of Hezbollah," he said. The cable noted that while a Hezbollah-controlled Defense Ministry is a red line for Murr, he said he is unsure if he is willing to trade the Interior Ministry for Defense because the Interior Minister could impose conditions on the LAF.
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