Post Gaddafi Libya… The Scenarios

Mohamad Shmaysani The February 17 revolution in Libya is nearly in control of the country after 40 long years of Moamar Gaddafi’s dictatorship. However, the incomplete fall of Gaddafi’s regime poses a number of challenges and facts.

In a large country with only six million people living in it, the deep-rooted tribal structure of Libya’s social infrastructure suggests the likelihood of a prominent division among 120 tribes, 30 of which are very influential. In his 40 years of rule, Gaddafi succeeded in undermining the power of the State’s institutions and cementing the tribal identity. Gaddafi also built up the elements of tribal division and conflict by rewarding loyal tribes and punishing other defying tribes. This will definitely have serious reverberations throughout the whole– maybe long - process of shifting to democracy in Libya. SAMPLES OF THE CHALLENGES - Will the tribes be willing to comply with the authority of the law that could exceed the limits of their own rules and customs? - Will some tribes seek vengeance from other tribes at this present time of state-of-no-law in Libya? - Will the tribes come to an understanding on the political gravitas and the political representation of each tribe in any new regime?

LIBERALS, ISLAMISTS, HIDDEN AGENDAS AND..HARMOY Competition at the political and military levels is a not less serious challenge than the tribal factor. The combination of the revolution forces itself comprises figures who had participated in the 1969 coup and they are currently in active duty at the Military Council. Some of these figures, like Major General Abdul Fattah Younis, were killed in mysterious circumstances, others who have lived long years in exile – mainly in the US – are regarded as liberals and moderates, and finally there are the “Islamists”. It is still hard to know whether these constituents – who also have their own tribal authorities and possibly specific agendas, will be able to harmonize. Speaking of agendas, NATO is very much focused on keeping control of Libya’s oil and the country’s political and economic transition process. Ultimately, such challenges affirm that the situation in Libya has started a very long and possibly disturbed way towards evolution. SCENARIOS CIVIL WAR Anyway, it goes without saying that the West has played a central role in redirecting the conflict by imposing a change of power balance to the benefit of the rebels. Yet the next phase could see different scenarios like civil war on tribal backgrounds, if serious understandings were not reached on distributing power, mainly among the 30 influential tribes. MILITARY RULE Another scenario could see Libya under military rule given that a number of senior military officers are supported by major Libyan tribes. However, four decades of suffering under Gaddafi’s military rule could prevent such scenario from becoming reality. GREY ZONE Libya could as well stay in the grey zone, or in the transitional period, for a long time as this could cause tardiness in the process for change. This scenario, nonetheless, is likely in Libya; the country that has fractional, if no democratic experience at all throughout its history. Weak independent institutions – legislative, judicial, etc… - ineffective civil society bodies, and the complicated tribal structure also add to the likelihood of a grey zone materializing in Libya. FEDERAL LIBYA During their reign 1551–1911, the Ottomans divided Libya into three provinces: Barqa in the East, Tripoli in the West, and Fezzan in the South. To this day, this administrative division has not practically changed, even though there had been at least eight attempts to change it since independence in 1951. Despite the fact that a federal Libya serves in defusing power struggles across the country, and given that ethnic, religious, and sectarian harmony amongst tribes could stop the evolution of federalism into separatism, the distribution of the country’s riches and resources vary significantly between one province and another. This could probably trigger a conflict between provinces, fed by tribal divisions as well. Hard days are awaiting Libya, while the main concern of the Libyans now is to establish a new rule they brought in a revolution on 40 years of tyranny. When they finally clear Libya from the remnants of the Gaddafi regime, their other main concern should become to close ranks and protect their riches and resources from slipping away from them while they fight each other.

Source: Website Team

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