'Not so fast ... Talk is cheap & Assad is much more resilient than we imagine!'

Via FLC

"... Will this finally shake lose President Assad and produce the fourth scalp of the Arab Spring after Ben Ali, Mubarak, and Gaddafi? Not so fast. Talk is cheap, and regimes such as Syria’s are far more resilient than we imagine. Syria’s army, whose elite units are linked by clan and family to the Assad dynasty, has remained loyal for far longer than Gaddafi’s rump forces. China and Russia are also blocking tougher action in the UN Security Council, each motivated by a web of commercial and strategic interests in propping up a fellow autocrat.
There is a lesson in statecraft here. Foreign policy is an expression of our national values as well as of interests, but it’s also replete with trade-offs that we can’t ignore. The price of fighting a just war in Libya was stretching our UN mandate to absurdity, thereby making Moscow and Beijing all the more unwilling to budge an inch on Syria.

As things get worse, it’ll be increasingly tempting to wish away these constraints and demand Western military intervention. But our best bet remains the indirect approach. It’s becoming increasingly clear that a civil war is brewing, and the overspill will be disastrous for Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan. After a profoundly anti-Western decade in the Middle East, it’s time that Russia is held to account for its irresponsibility. The Arab League should be encouraged to tell Putin that he will have blood on his hands for as long as he enables Assad’s last stand.
Turkey, which is hosting insurgents on its soil, is the wild card here. It has toyed with the idea of carving out a buffer zone in northern Syria. Britain, using the cover of the Arab League’s condemnation and Turkey’s unprecedented popularity in the Middle East, should back action by Ankara. We should also offer non-lethal support to the Syrian National Council, an umbrella group of opposition figures, if they want it.
UN sanctions may be unfeasible, but Syria is already blocked from selling oil to Europe. If Turkey joined the economic onslaught,(the author forgets that Turkey's economic 'miracle' is umbilically connected to Europe's economies and that black days loom ahead!)that could shatter Syria’s fragile economy and persuade members of the trading classes in big cities such as Damascus and Aleppo to withdraw support for the regime.
There is no guarantee that any change will improve matters for Syria. Two neighbours, Iraq and Lebanon, are scarred by the horrors of internecine civil wars..."

Posted by G, M, Z, or B at 11:51 AM
River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian