France Approaches for New Iraq, Future Syria

Nedal Hmedeh “I haven’t seen Russian officials as much angry as they are now since the war against Georgia,” a French media source quoted the French foreign minister as saying. The French journalist was on board of a plane carrying the French foreign minister Alain Juppe in one of his trips to the Russian capital of Moscow to discuss the Syrian issue. During Georgia war, President Nicolas Sarkozy mediated on behalf of the West to stop it, and thus stopping the Russian march towards the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. The French journalist added, "since the start of the so-called Arab spring, the diplomatic France lives an overwhelming joy of its return to the international arena as a striking superpower militarily and a decision maker politically; the superpower that deals with the Syrian issue, since last May in particular, on the basis of considering the Russian veto as a real fact.” “From this point, France escalates situations on both political and diplomatic levels, while eying on Turkey which the West wants it to fight the military war against Syria,” the source went on to say. Europeans, expressed the journalist, who dislike the Syrians, do not like the Turks either, and they might get rid of the both together. Moreover, we all know the French stance on Turkey’s join of the European Union, as well as the major differences between Sarkozy and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the latest was the salvos exchange about massacres of Armenia. The French source added that "Western despair of Turkey has reached a peak last week, due to information in the French diplomatic circles stating that Turkey might change its stance towards Syria radically in case the security situation in Iraq deteriorates after the U.S. withdrawal.” “Turks are afraid of sectarian conflict in which the Iraq-Kurdistan region will be the only safe zone. This truly promotes the Kurds’ influence in the region and facilitates the process of their independence, which is practically exists since the year 2003," the French journalist’s words end here. In this context, and following the economically and socially exhausted internal situation of France and Europe, it is imperative for those who lives this crisis and is close to it, to note that threats of military intervention in Syria can only come through a process of political and psychological pressure. However, there is no real capacity to fight a costly war in contrary to what happened during the Libyan war, although the Saudi Arabia and Qatar have volunteered to pay the costs; nonetheless, western calculations exceed the fantasies of some small Gulf States which witness the power of investment in these days. Hence, the French approach towards the situation after the US withdrawal from Iraq and Syria lies in the following ten points: 1- To consider the Russian position as “a supporter of Syria” a reality, under which France should work and over which it should exert pressure, either directly or indirectly. 2- To work with the Arabs and Turkey to curb Iranian influence in Iraq after the U.S. withdrawal, and prevent the deterioration of the security situation so as not to spread to neighboring countries from Yemen to Lebanon and the Saudi Arabia. 3- To deal with the rise of Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab countries as a strategic western interest, especially in seeking to curb Iranian influence in Iraq. 4- Turkey is the only country capable of fighting a ground war in Syria. Without Turkey’s cooperation not a result is expected. 5- French and European economic situation does not allow launching a war in the Middle East, which will affect Israel and highly increase the oil prices. 6- France will not send any ground forces to Syria, just like the United States. 7- Economic blockade is a long-term policy, the success of which requires the cooperation of Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan. 8- Pressure should put on Iran in the nuclear issue, so Tehran will be distracted from supporting Assad regime. 9- Lebanon should avoid any impact as a result of events in Syria, and thus neutralizing Hezbollah, at least for now, and reassure him in order not to besiege the government of Miqati. 10- Working on Hezbollah’s weapons starts after the regime fall in Syria. -- Translated by Eslam al-Rihani

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian