Iranian nuclear bomb a matter of political will - US Determined on More Sanctions

US spy chief: Iranian nuclear bomb a matter of political will

Published Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Iran is keeping open its option to develop a nuclear weapon, but US intelligence agencies do not know whether it will eventually decide to build one, the US intelligence chief said on Tuesday.

New US sanctions imposed over Iran's nuclear program were likely to have a greater impact than previous ones, but were not expected to lead to the downfall of Tehran's leadership, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in prepared testimony on the annual worldwide threat assessment for the Senate intelligence committee.

"We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so," Clapper said.

"We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons."
Iran is expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities, which can be used for either civil or weapons purposes, he said.

"Iran's technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so," Clapper said.

"These advancements contribute to our judgment that Iran is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, if it so chooses," he said.

President Barack Obama signed into law December 31 sanctions on Iran's central bank.

The new US sanctions will have a greater impact on Iran because the Central Bank of Iran handles a large volume of foreign bank transactions and receives the revenue from roughly 70 percent of Iranian oil sold by the National Iranian Oil Company, Clapper said.

"Despite this, Iran's economic difficulties probably will not jeopardize the regime, absent a sudden and sustained fall in oil prices or a sudden domestic crisis that disrupts oil exports," he said.

The US has been lobbying Asian countries to cut its imports of Iranian oil with little success so far.
Only Japan and South Korea have hinted at cutting oil imports from Iran, but have also sought waivers from US sanctions to continue purchasing a minimum amount.

China, Iran's major client, rebutted US calls for it cooperate with its sanctions, while India has said it has no plans to cut Iranian oil imports at this point.

Iran has sought to "exploit the Arab Spring but has reaped limited benefits, thus far," the testimony said. Its biggest regional concern is Syria where a change in leadership would be a major strategic loss for Tehran.

Clapper's annual assessment also highlighted the main espionage threats to the United States, most notably China, Russia and Iran.

Russia and China are aggressive and successful in economic espionage against the United States, and "Iran's intelligence operations against the United States, including cyber capabilities, have dramatically increased in recent years in depth and complexity."

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards' cyber warfare unit hacked into a US spy drone, the RQ-170 Sentinel, in December, forcing it to land, almost entirely intact, as it hovered over Iranian airspace.
CIA operations were also dealt a serious and embarrassing blow in Lebanon, with Iran's powerful ally, Hezbollah, revealing details of its spies in the country last year, including the whereabouts of their meetings.

(Reuters, Al-Akhbar)

IAEA’s Three-day Visit Ends, US Determined on More Sanctions

Local Editor
Officials from the IAEA, the UN nuclear watchdog, were scheduled on Tuesday to wrap up a three-day visit to Iran as US lawmakers signaled they intended to keep up the pressure on the Islamic republic by unveiling plans for yet more economic sanctions, on top of those already infuriating Iran.

Iran's foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, said on Monday his country was prepared to host the International Atomic Energy Agency officials for longer, "if they want" to extend their mission. It was not known if the offer was made officially to the IAEA team, whose visit was taking place entirely out of public view.

Tehran's position, repeated by Salehi, is to call on the European Union and the United States to "replace their policy of sanctions with interaction" with the Islamic republic.
US adamant on sanctions policy

But key US lawmakers on Monday said a senate banking commission would soon vote a text to punish Iran further with more economic and political sanctions. The legislation "sends a clear signal through strong measures that Iran must abandon its nuclear weapons program and its designs for the spread of international terror," said the top Republican senator on the panel, Richard Shelby.

The bill targets firms that have anything to do with helping Iran mine, produce or transport uranium anywhere in the world. It also requires US-listed companies to disclose if they or their affiliates could have run afoul of US sanctions on Iran by investing in energy investments, or through the sale of communications monitoring or surveillance technology. The bill would additionally deny US visas to Iranian students wanting to study in energy-related fields if it is deemed they plan to return to work in Iran's energy sector or nuclear program. And it would tighten sanctions on Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, including targeting "anyone who materially assists" the Guards.

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