Posted on April 22, 2013 by Alexandra Valiente
Orient Tendencies
Monday April 22, 2013, no128
Weekly information and analysis bulletin specialized in Arab Middle Eastern affairs prepared by neworientnews.com
Editor in chief Wassim Raad
wassimraad73@gmail.com
New Orient Center for Strategic policies
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The war of attrition against Syria:
between illusion and field realities
By Ghaleb Kandil
The American medias reported differences of views within the Obama administration about how to deal with the Syrian crisis. The press highlighted the words of some Pentagon officials in front of the Congress, underlining the dangers of arming the rebels, after the role of Al-Qaeda – and its Syrian branch al-Nosra Front- had became decisive. The possible involvement of Chechen terrorists in the bombings of Boston gives more credit to this caution, especially the Western press had revealed a few months ago, the formation of small groups of Chechen fighters in Libya, under supervision of U.S. intelligence, before sending them to Syria, and Russia via Turkey.
The confusion in U.S. ruling circles about the Syrian issue is due, above all else, to the admirable strength of the Syrian state and its national army, facing a world war led by the United States. Arms transfers, training camps, recruitment channels as well as the political and media strategies, everything about Syria is supervised by Washington, which assigns tasks to its allies. Thousands of tons of weapons and equipment were provided by the French and British according an American decision. And the media have officially announced that John Kerry would be carrying, at the meeting of pseudo-friends of Syria in Istanbul, of large sums-of a Bankrupt America-to buy armored personnel carriers and communications equipment for terrorists in Syria. The Pentagon officials, who seem to contradict this interventionist diplomacy, provide Washington an excuse to backtrack if necessary. For the results of the American adventure in Syria are more uncertain than ever.
Indeed, the progression of the Syrian army in the past five weeks is beyond the initial objectives of the military command. The progress is not limited to a specific sector but involves several fronts, including Damascus, Homs, Latakia and Idlib and around Aleppo. Saturday and Sunday, the army and the popular committees have registered significant success in Qoussair, near the Lebanese border, chasing terrorists from many villages.
The consequence of these military developments, particularly around the capital, is that the “great battle of Damascus”, whose preparations were going hard for months, will not take place in the coming months.
It is clear from all these developments, that the war of attrition initiated by the United States is a very risky game, with a great deal of illusions about the possibility of influencing the political equations or reverse the balance of power on the field. The coalition responsible for implementing this plan is global. It includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, European countries, with Israel as the centerpiece under the high supervision of the United States.
But this is not counting on the commitment and resistance of the Syrian leadership and people and the determination of emerging powers, including Brics, Latin America and Iran, to end American unilateralism.
Tammam Salam will not form a government unilaterally
By Pierre Khalaf
Prime Minister-designate, Tammam Salam, backtracked. Faced with the reality on the ground, underpinned by political power imposed by the March 8 coalition and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), he resigned to form a government without concerting with political forces, which is controlled by the March 14 under the name “neutral cabinet” or “technocrats”. Increasingly aware of the balance of power, President of the Republic, Michel Sleiman, and leader of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Walid Jumblatt, made him understand that he could not impose the March 8 ministers, to the Speaker Nabih Berry House, Hezbollah or FPM. Tammam Salam reportedly informed his interlocutors that he doesn’t want “to impose names to anyone. Let them communicate me the names that I choose among them.” Prime Minister-designate said he offered to different political forces to advance a list of potential ministers and denied its willingness to proceed with unilateral composition of his government. According to Salam circles, Prime Minister-designate and the president will choose among the names that will be advanced non-partisan and non-candidates ministers to serve on the new cabinet in accordance with the criteria required.
The President of the Republic, who is in the last year of his term, advised Tammam Salam to show flexibility. He cannot turn back to Hezbollah or President Nabih Berry. The president even sends messages in favor of a dialogue with the March 8. He does not seem eager to see the government put in place. He ensures that the new cabinet should reflect a political and sectarian balance and that the next government should obtain confidence vote in the Chamber to be able to fulfill its mission. In this context, the gestation of the government will be long.
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Statements
Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president
«The West has paid heavily for funding Al-Qaeda in its early stages. Today it is doing the same in Syria, Libya and other places, and will pay a heavy price in the heart of Europe and the United States. We are facing a new war, a new method with fighters, some of whom are Arabs, not Syrians. The army is not fighting a war to liberate Syrian territory, but a war on terror. The situation is better now than it was before. There are big powers, in particular the United States, that do not accept countries to be independent; they want them to be submissive. Everyone who carries weapons and attacks civilians is a terrorist, be they Al-Qaeda or not. There is no option but victory. Otherwise it will be the end of Syria, and I don’t think that the Syrian people will accept such an option. The truth is there is a war and I repeat: no to surrender, no to submission. The position of president has no value without popular backing. The people’s decision is what matters in the question of whether the president stays or goes. I cannot believe that hundreds of rebels are entering Syria with their weapons while Jordan is capable of arresting any single person with a light arm for going to resist in Palestine. We would wish that our Jordanian neighbors realize that the fire will not stop at our borders; all the world knows Jordan is just as exposed to the crisis as Syria. From the first day, what is happening in Syria is dictated from abroad.»
Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister
«The Friends of Syria grouping of Western and Arab countries undermined dialogue. Right now we see this process is making a negative contribution to the Geneva decisions. When one party is isolated in any mechanism set up to deal with a conflict, we miss the ground for dialogue. We see Al-Qaeda-related groups struggling against the current regime (in Syria), and that’s a very worrying aspect. And they are listed as terrorist groups by the United States. In our future deliberations we will try to avoid any measures that focus on military intervention and the isolation of the parties concerned. We will focus on establishing a dialogue platform with the participation of all parties involved.»
Sheikh Naïm Qassem, Hezbollah under-secretary
«A nonpolitical government is unrealistic. There is no one who is not politicized in the country, even the Prime Minister-designate has a political vision. Therefore, we must think objectively about forming a political government. We call for a national, all-inclusive government. These are huge tasks the government must shoulder, whether it’s in office for one, two or three months or one, two or three years. To those who say that the government will handle one task only for a specific period of time, we say: What is the role of the government in other issues? Who manages the country? We say to Connelly: We know how to manage the affairs of our country in cooperation with all the country’s factions; we do not want your advice.»
Adnane Mansour, Lebanese caretaker Foreign Minister
«We have received no positive information from the Turkish side so far about the nine Lebanese hostages being held by rebels in Syria. Turkey is not the country linked directly to the kidnapping and it maintains good ties with us.»
Marwan Charbel, Lebanese caretaker Interior Minister
«I urge that the numbers of Syrian refugees and the burden of assisting them be distributed among states on the basis of collective responsibility because Lebanon has exceeded its ability to absorb them.»
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Events
- An Nahar daily reported that the bomb discovered on Qalamoun Highway in northern Lebanon on the night of Thursday to Friday, was to hit the convoy of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, on his return to Beirut from Tripoli. However, the Mikati’s spokesman, Fares Gemayel, denied these infirmation. According to a security source, the bomb discovered was composed of three explosives that were not connected to a detonator.
- Citing an informed sources, Al Akhbar daily reported that the emirate of Abu Dhabi has expelled last week twenty Lebanese citizens for no apparent reason. Lebanese affected by the expulsion were resident in the UAE for many years. They were not even allowed to liquidate their business.
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Press review
As Safir (Lebanese daily, close to the majority, April 18, 2013)
Parliament Speaker, Nabih Berry said he rejected outright the idea of forming a government of technocrats, especially that “such a formula is no longer possible since the adoption of the Taif agreement.” He also doubted the existence of truly neutral technocrats and personalities in Lebanon. He then said he was reassured by the position of Walid Jumblatt, “with which we agreed on the need to establish a consensual government.”
As Safir (April 18, 2013)
Imad Marmal
The Saudi ambassador, Ali Awad al-Asir, said to As Safir that the kingdom “has not interrupted relations with any Lebanese party” and that the “heart of Arabia is open to all.” About his meeting with Minister Gebran Bassil, Mr. Assiri talked about a “positive atmosphere”. “General Michel Aoun is welcome, like any other Lebanese personalities, regardless of their political affiliation,” he said, adding: “The relationship with General Aoun has been broken for some time. Probably because when the brothers at FPM are angry with some Lebanese parties, their anger affects us. But now, the contact was reestablished. “
The diplomat ensures that contact with Hezbollah continues in various forms, stating that “differences of views with the party on certain issues are a normal and healthy thing to be invested in the interest of Lebanon.” “The points of convergence between us are more numerous than the differences, “he said, adding:” The sincere and serious dialogue with Hezbollah is able to resolve all disputes, or at least put them in their proper context. We have friendly contacts. I have visited Sheikh Naim Kassem and we receive from time to time MP Mohammad Raad. We maintain telephone contact and they (Hezbollah officials) share our celebrations. There is no break with Hezbollah. Our doors and our hearts are open to the party, he is welcome. “
Asked about the position of Saudi Arabia about the weapons of the Resistance, Assiri simply responds: “It is a Lebanese internal matter.”
An Nahar (Lebanese Daily, close to march-14 coalition)
Sabie Oueiss (April 19, 2013)
March 8 forces adressed a series of conditions for forming a new government. First, the next cabinet should be expanded to 30 ministers. Then the names of potential ministers would be submitted to the Prime Minister designated after the talks for the allocation of portfolios. In this context, some sources deny reports that March 8 would have presented a list of names of potential ministers to Tammam Salam. Finally, there will be no discussion of the new cabinet before reaching an agreement on a new consensual electoral law.
Al Akhbar (Lebanese Daily close to the Resistance, April 19, 2013)
Media reports about Jordanian involvement in the Syrian crisis have increased over the past few months. However, reports that the US is training Syrian opposition fighters in Jordan have been repeatedly met with denials from government officials in Amman.
Jordanians, however, were surprised at Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s comments in an interview on Wednesday, April 17. “We would wish that our Jordanian neighbors realize that…the fire will not stop at our borders – all the world knows Jordan is just as exposed [to the crisis] as Syria.”
On the same day, US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel revealed that his country is dispatching 200 army planners to Jordan to assist with Syrian refugees and prepare for any new security developments, particularly those related to Syria’s chemical weapons.
Hagel added that the unit will be taking the place of a previous group of 150 US military specialists who had been sent last year to establish an intelligence and surveillance station to follow events in Syria.
A government spokesperson in Amman said that the officers were being sent in the context of “the security challenges and developments that may stem from the Syrian crisis.”
This was later denied, however, by a statement from the Jordanian armed forces that the American soldiers “have nothing to do with the situation in Syria,” and that they are coming to participate in a routine military exercise involving 19 countries.
Growing Involvement
By the end of 2012, only a few hundred Jordanian Salafis had crossed the border to fight in Syria. The government mostly turned a blind eye, but its policy of cracking down on jihadi Salafi activists remained in place, as evidenced by firefights along the border.
However, by the beginning of 2013, Damascus began to notice a new development, whereby Syrian army defectors and Syrian Muslim Brotherhood members were being trained in Jordanian camps and sent across the border with official consent.
This prompted Damascus to dispatch Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal al-Miqdad to Amman in January. Jordanian officials denied any such operations, insisting that their country’s policy of neutrality still stood.
Then, new waves of fighters crossed the border into Syria in February and March, bringing with them large amounts of medium-sized weapons, such as armor-piercing shoulder-fired rockets, which can also be used against planes.
In mid-March, Damascus secretly sent former head of intelligence Ali Mamlouk to Amman to brief his counterparts on border developments. Again, the Jordanian response was complete denial.
A Syrian source who refused to be named said that Jordan has opened several camps for the Syrian opposition that are capable of training up to 5,000 fighters at once. So far, 3,000 have completed their training, of which 1,560 have crossed the border into Daraa.
Diplomatic and military channels remain open between the two countries, which some Syrian officials believe can still be used to deal with the growing problem. Syria’s ambassador in Amman is also quite certain that the Jordanian military, for a variety of reasons, is unlikely to become directly involved in the Syrian conflict.
American Pressure
Nevertheless, Jordan must withstand tremendous pressure coming from Washington in order to avoid becoming implicated in Syrian affairs. US officials like Secretary of State John Kerry, for example, do not hesitate in exploiting Jordan’s fragile economic situation to bend it to its will.
But despite promises of billions of dollars in aid from both the West and Gulf countries, not enough has actually reached Amman to stave off its economic woes. Even those funds intended to help the country cope with the influx of Syrian refugees are slow in coming, and are often bound up with conditions that the Jordanian government cannot meet.
At the end of the day, however, a high-level Jordanian official still believes that it will be difficult for his country to become deeply involved in the Syrian crisis, primarily because the public sentiment opposes such involvement.
Al Akhbar (April 18, 2013)
Amal Khalil
On Monday, 15 April 2013, acting Governor of South Lebanon Nicolas Abou Daher announced a decision to “ban all marches, gatherings, and sit-ins that will stir up sectarian and confessional strife.”
The decision, stemming from a security commission meeting at his Saida office, seems to be directed toward Salafi Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir. The sheikh had announced a protest outside Saida’s al-Zahraa Mosque complex following this coming Friday’s prayers.
Sources maintained that Minister of Interior Marwan Charbel gave Assir permission for his protest so long as he stayed 500 meters away from al-Zahraa complex. Assir’s Friday announcement seems to be inspired by Charbel’s decision.
As for the Zahraa complex, many are surprised that it is being pulled into “Assir’s madness,” which put it as a list of targets. Assir sees the place as “the embassy of Iran’s party Hezbollah in Saida and its biggest political complex. It is also where party figures meet.” However, sources indicated that Zahraa’s Sheikh Afif al-Naboulsi resigned from Hezbollah and does not have any political or religious status in the party. Assir wants to close down the complex, which was built in 1993, since it is “inside our city.”
Currently, the complex is not a Hezbollah headquarters. It is the only Shia religious center in Saida, holding religious lectures and Ashura commemorations. This is why many see that the sit-in as “directed against the Shia sect and not Hezbollah.”
Sources close to Assir told Al-Akhbar that security forces delivered a message to the sheikh, “warning him about the sit-in and informing him that the army will not be taking the usual precautions around his rally to prevent any friction, since he did not apply for the necessary permits.”
However, the message did not impact Assir’s plans. Sources indicated that after Friday prayers, three groups of Assir’s followers will then march to Zahra, located about 500 meters away.
In the meantime, the Islamic National Gathering was launched on Monday under the slogan “security, peace, and coexistence between the people of Saida.” The gathering, called for by the Baath party represented by MP Qassem Hashem, marked solidarity with “the resistant religious edifice in Saida, whose targeting only serves the American-Zionist project.”
One of the gathering’s founders, Sheikh Khodor al-Kabsh, indicated that a committee was formed to vocalize its rejection for Assir’s actions.
Also on Monday, statements from the “Sunnis of Ain al-Hilweh” and Usbat al-Ansar, a Salafi faction, called for support of Assir’s protest.
Palestinian factions and the media officer of al-Ansar denied any connection with “the fabricated statements.” Informed sources believe “it is possible that some Islamist groups from al-Taware and Taamir neighborhoods in Ain al-Hilweh might exploit Assir’s protest and fire their arms toward army stations or Lebanese neighborhoods.”
Al Akhbar (April 18, 2013)
Roula Ibrahim
For the past 13 years, Ghazi Aridi has held the titles of MP and minister. After carrying out his assignments at various ministries, most recently that of transport and public works, the politician is being sent into early retirement. Was Aridi too much of a threat to the political ascent of Jumblatt’s son?
Visitors to the mountain village of Baissour in the Aley district cannot help but notice the grand villa on top of Radar Hill. Set amidst green vineyards and scenic hiking spots, the vast surrounding lands were recently added to the real estate portfolio of Ghazi al-Aridi, the minister of public works and transport in the caretaker government.
The people of Baissour know the situation. They do not bother to sell their lands through a real estate agency; they head directly to Aridi’s palace since he’s an almost certain buyer.
Yet recently, about ten days ago, the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) handed in their list of candidates for the upcoming parliamentary elections to the interior ministry. When the PSP’s Justice Commissioner Nashat Hosseiniyeh read out the list, everyone thought that he mistakenly forgot to mention Aridi. However, it was soon discovered that Aridi does not want to return to parliament for “personal reasons,” according to Hosseiniyeh.
The minister is not answering phone calls anymore. PSP ministers and MPs refuse to talk about their colleague and repeat the official position. The party president, MP Walid Jumblatt sharply changes the subject when asked about his minister.
“Ghazi wants to rest,” Jumblatt has said. “He will not be on the PSP’s parliamentary list. The nomination of Jihad al-Zuheiri in Beirut is certain.”
Aridi’s supposed allies believe there is something odd about the whole story.
The Kempinski Scandal
It does seem strange that, after 13 years of service, Aridi is exempted from running for parliament. Those who know him well, know that he is personally attached to the title. His confidants say that his passion for writing and publishing is only equalled by that of his MP status or political fame in general.
“The only thing capable of keeping him away from the only job he knows how to do professionally would be orders from Jumblatt,” they say.
They conclude that he has been sent into early retirement. However, the reasons for not being nominated revolve around the following possibilities:
First, Aridi’s financial “bulge” has become the talk of the town and Baissour’s most urgent concern, according to a regular visitor to Jumblatt’s residence in Mukhtara. The minister’s wealth multiplied in the past five years to staggering heights. Some of this money, according to the PSP source, was obtained in partnership with Jumblatt, such as the briefcases full of money he brought from the Saudis. Some of it remained a secret until it was accidently exposed during a meeting between Jumblatt and the owner of the Kempinski – previously known as the Summerland beach resort – located in southern Beirut.
According to someone who attended the meeting, Walid Saab, the project’s owner, thanked Jumblatt for covering up his project’s violation of maritime property laws by passing a bill that allowed Kempinski to expand its installations from 28,000 m² to 30,000 m². Saab asked Jumblatt if he was satisfied with the shares he received, consisting of several chalets in the new resort. Jumblatt looked into the issue and discovered that Aridi’s son had received shares in the project listed in Jumblatt’s name. This was too much for Jumblatt.
Second, March 8 sources speculate that the PSP wanted him in the “non-candidate” government of Tammam Salam. Jumblatt wants a strong minister in the government, which would be overseeing the elections.
Third, a PSP official maintains that “public works Ghazi” is different from “information Ghazi.” Aridi’s connections during his tenure at the information ministry are different from his current links to local and regional politics.
The official believes that Jumblatt has lost his ability to bring Aridi back under his wing, especially since the MP was able to build a network of contacts in Lebanon, Syria, and Saudi Arabia.
These issues are no secret to Jumblatt, but they were spotlighted since he’s preparing his son Taimour to take over the PSP leadership. Aridi is seen as a threat to the young man’s rise since the minister is the only one capable of inheriting Jumblatt’s legacy.
If he wanted, Aridi could also steal the limelight from Taimour. One PSP official believes that Aridi was pushed out to make it easier for Taimour later. According to Jumblatt, who is 63, “no one from the Jumblatt family lives for more than 64 years.” He keeps repeating to his visitors that “this year will be difficult.”
Therefore, it was necessary to relieve Aridi of some of his political files, especially the Saudi dossier. This was seen when Jumblatt sent his son, along with Minister of Social Affairs Wael Abu Faour, to the Saudi royal court, instead of his usual delegate Aridi. Before taking Aridi completely out of the picture, his party is stripping him of his political privileges one by one and giving them to Abu Faour.
However, there is a fourth possibility, coming from outside the daily political salons. The circle close to Jumblatt hint at a financial conflict between Aridi and the Saudis. According to sources, the Saudis gave direct orders to Jumblatt to get rid of Aridi and he immediately complied. Jumblatt’s circles indicate that the two last possibilities are the strongest, especially since the minutes of PSP party meetings are overflowing with complaints against Aridi’s “arrogance” and the “inflation of his fortune.”
The ambitious minister should have known, through his reading and writing of history books, that no politician who is manufactured in the palaces of feudal families can overstep the boundaries set from the beginning, especially if the issue will impact the future of the “heir.” It is certain that Taimour’s inheritance of the party of his father, and his grandfather before him, accelerated the end of the most articulate socialist “poet” in Jumblatt’s court.
Al Joumhouria (Lebanese Daily, close to March-14 coalition)
April 18, 2013
An eminent prelate expressed Maronites surprise about the timing of the campaign launched by the Futur Movement against the Patriarch Bechara Rai. Indeed, the statement of MP Farid Makari, saying that the head of the Maronite Church became a Goodwill Ambassador defending the Syrian regime, spoke Wednesday in an interview on the chain of Mustaqbal, just when Saad Hariri made visit the patriarch to his hotel in France. At this meeting, the former prime minister did not praise dried against the patriarch that he covered with most flattering words.
Maronite Patriarchate circles are convinced that Makari words are not the result of a personal initiative but a distribution of roles within the Future Movement, otherwise the party Hariri would had dissociate itself from the Makari statements.
Bkerké circles continues: “Who among the members of the Future Movement was against Syria to afford to give lessons to the Patriarch? If Rai warns against the impact of the Arab Spring on Christians in the region, it is because he carries the worries and concerns of Christians of Antioch and All the Orient. Also, is it inappropriate to say that he was elected to represent only the Christians of Lebanon. However, some colleagues of Makari, who were elected as representatives of Zahle, Akkar and other cazas, are constantly on the Lebanese-Syrian border, and beyond, and are involved up to their necks in events in Syria, while their duty is different. “
The bishop noted that “in the form, the attack of the Future Movement against the patriarch is justified by his remarks on the Arab Spring, which began at the origin against dictatorial regimes, but that could pave the way for ‘Muslim extremism. “But in the end, adds the prelate, patriarch Rai is targeted for electoral reasons. All this is happening and all what could happen is directly related to the electoral law and the last meeting of Maronite leaders at Bkerké during which the 1960 Act was buried. The meeting showed that the patriarch undermined the interests of those who support the 1960 law.”
Daily Star (Lebanese Daily, April 18, 2013)
The United Arab Emirates said on Thursday it had arrested a seven-member cell linked to Al-Qaeda that was planning attacks on the Gulf oil and business hub, the second time this year it has alleged a concrete threat from the militant group.
The UAE, an important military, counter-terrorism and business partner of the West, said the seven were Arab nationals who had been helping Al-Qaeda with recruitment, financing and logistical support. “The cell was planning actions to target the country’s security and the safety of its citizens and residents, and was carrying out recruitment, and promoting the actions of Al-Qaeda,” WAM said. “It was also supplying it (Al-Qaeda) with money and providing logistical support and seeking to expand its activities to some (other) countries in the region,” WAM said.
The UAE, a federation of seven emirates including Dubaï and Abu Dhabi, has been spared an attack by Al-Qaeda and other militants; some analysts say the groups find it too useful as a communications and financial hub.
But in December, the UAE said it had arrested a cell of Emirati and Saudi Arabian members of a “deviant group” that was planning to carry out militant attacks in both countries and other states. The term “deviant group” is often used by authorities in Saudi Arabia to describe Al-Qaeda members.
Dubai police chief Dhahi Khalfan told a local newspaper in January that some of the group had links to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which uses Yemen as a base for international operations.
Uprooted Palestinian
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