Syria Neighbors: Three years later

ED: On Monday, 30 May 2011 I asked:

Is Erdogan worried about Strategic Relationship with Syria?

I answered: He should

Erdogan, should worry, Turkey has the same Syrian, religious/ethnic political landscape. So, if Syria falls, Turkey could be NEXT. If Syria survive (IT will), Turkey would lose everything build via the Syrian Gate.

In Arabic we say in Arabic, "those who have a Glass home should avoid throwing stones on neighbors."

On Thursday, 23 June 2011 I wrote:

Erdogan "knows, no peace can be achieved without Hamas, so he brought Mashaal to Istanbul, to meet Ahmet Davutoglu, apointed by Clinton to engineer the new midddle east with "Brother Netanyaho". Most likely, Davutoglu, showed Mashaal the design of the new Middle Eastern Map after the decline of the regime in Syria, and conveyed to him the turkish demand that Hamas must recognize Israel, in order to "consolidates the position of the Palestinian Authority in negotiations and presses Israel even more in front of the international community, the US and Obama in particular. "

But I was wrong in saying;

Most likely, Mashaal refused the deal, catched the first flight to Damascus.

HAMAS, HOPEFULLY, SHALL NOT SURRENDER NEITHER TO ITS OPPORTUNIST ''BROTHERS, NOR TO EGYPT CLOSING RAFAH CROSSING.

But I was right in saying;

SYRIA SHALL EMERGE FROM ITS CRISIS VICTORIOUS.

According to turkey the so-called Arab Spring presents opportunities.Thus said Erdogan's adviser who ignored or failed to see the RISKS so far presented by "Arab Spring", a civil war in Libya, and may be in Yemen,

"As the Arab Spring enters its fourth month, it faces challenges but also presents opportunities. Despite setbacks in Libya, Yemen, and Syria,the democratic wave has already begun to change the Middle East’s political landscape."

"Over the last decade, Turkey has developed different types of relationships with the countries of the Middle East, targeting improved relations with both governments and the public. Indeed, Turkey is probably the only country that has been able to promote relations at the two levels in the Arab world."

Translating Kalin's statement on Syria, I wrote:

Turkey developed improved relations with Exiled Muslim Brothers, and ignored its “Zero Problem” Foreign Policy, with its neighbors, and main gate to Arab world. Muslim Brothers are now meeting in Istanbul instead of London.

Blinded by the 4 months old " Arab Spring ", and despite the setbacks, Kalin,

is still hoping the Syrian unrest may present an opportunity for Turkey.

What opportunity?? I asked

The answer:

The opportunity to engage Muslim brothers, and their offspring, Hamas, " publicly and directly, as Turkey has done, with USA and Europe. "After all, they are now part of the emerging political order in the Arab world"

Kalin concluded

"A democratic and prosperous Arab world will make Turkey’s standing in the region stronger, not weaker."

Again, what opportionity, what change, and what political landscape?? I asked

'Let us connect the Dots" I wrote

After Jully war , 2006, Saad El-Hariri predicted

"In a week, two weeks, when it starts raining, and the economy's crumbling. Then people will be annoyed with Hizballah." Even the Shi'a will begin looking around and realizing that "their society has been pulverized," and while "it's fine and dandy to have 10,000 dollars, where are the jobs?! What will they eat?!" Plus, it will be hard to encourage any kind of investment in Lebanon as long as Hizballah remains armed and dangerous."

Saad urged that now is a golden opportunity for the international community to "weaken" Bashar. The USA needs a clear, new policy to isolate Syria. "My belief is, if you don't isolate Syria, if you don't put a blockade, they will never change." By subduing Syria, you remove Iran's main bridge for playing the troublemaker in Lebanon and Palestine."If you weaken Syria," Saad suggested, "then Iran has to work alone." The Saudis and other Arab states have all had enough of young Bashar, according to Saad, and no longer want to try a conciliatory approach to the Syrian regime. After Bashar's recent speech threatening civil war in Lebanon, they are no longer interested in "talking" with Damascus. Saad said he had hear this directly from the Saudis, and that Prince Bandar is delivering this message in Washington now (Comment. It is also interesting that Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal made similar comments, but about Iran specifically, during an 8/22 meeting with Ambassador Oberwetter, as reported in reftel. End Note).

"The Saudis and Egyptians have turned. Look into that." When Talwar asked what the United States could do to increase the pressure on Syria, Saad suggested forging ahead on the special tribunal with international character on the Hariri assassination and organizing international sanctions on Syria. "

"Getting a little more animated as the conversation continued, Saad argued that the Syrian regime needs to be gotten rid of entirely. "

"If the regime were to fall in Syria, who would be there to fill in the vacuum?..., Saad suggested that the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, in partnership with ex-regime figures like Abdel Halim Khaddam and Hikmet Shehabi ("though he's still close to theregime"), could step into the void. Saad claimed that the Syrian Brotherhood is similar in character to Turkey's moderate Islamists. "

"They even support peace with Israel." Saying that he maintains close contact with Khaddam (in Paris) and Syrian Muslim Brotherhood leader-in-exile Ali Bayanuni (in London), Saad urged us to "talk to Bayanuni. See what he's like. You will see wonders."

I checked the wonders of of Bayanuni, and the new middle east landscape:

"The head of the Syrian MB, Ali Sadreddine al-Bayanouni, told Reuters that should the MB reach power in Syria, it would be ready to open peace talks with Israel."

"if talks lead to withdrawal from the occupied lands and grant Palestinians their rights, then where would be the problem? There is no problem."

"The Reuters report contrasted Bayanouni's statement with Hamas' position which does not even recognize Israel. The implication is that the Syrian MB may not necessarily share the position of the Palestinian Islamists (Hamas) or Egypt's for that matter

Update: Bayanouni followed up on his interview and denied saying that his group is ready to assume power in Syria. Instead he called for a national coalition government.He did repeat however that in principle his group does not reject restoring Syrian rights from Israel through negotiations and a political settlement, provided the other side is willing.

In his denial he followed the steps of Egypt Brothers, who boycotted last friday demonstrations. I wonder if they after riding the revolution's tide may show us their wonders????

I concluded: "The So-called "Syrian revolution" after failure to attract the Syrian masses,turned into violence, and failed again. They failed in both attracting or dividing the Syrian army. "

What's left?? I asked

The last card:"humanitarian intervention", I answered and added

Most likely, Russia shall not burn it's fingers as it did in Libya, instead it will burn the zionist's last card, so there would be no "No Fly Zone"

Moreover, the fall of Syria, would pave the way towards the fall of Tehran, and that would be the last step in changing the "World's Political Landscape". Therefore, I claim both Russia, and China, would do everything to keep Resistance Axis a main player in the "Middle East’s political landscape" fighting both Condi's new middle east and new world order

Again, Erdogan should be worried, and should at least change his political advisors. Palestine, the resistance option is the only way to "make Turkey’s standing in the region stronger"

Turkey three years later is wondering:

to intervene or or not to intervene in Syria.
to continue supporting ISIL or Join the US in "Fighting" ISIL

A Syrian Kurdistan is emerging.

Three years ago, I told that to a friend and added:

Don't be surprised if you see in future a divided Turkey, a Kurdistan, uniting the Kurds in Iraq, Syria and Turkey, It would be good for "Israel" especially If lead by Zionist Barazani, and it may be accepted by Syria who would retake Iskandarone and and 15 millions Allawis

Three years later, Turkey, Jordan, the so-called March 14th movement in Lebanon, and the Leadership of Hamas, realized that Assad is victorious and its time to pay for what they did to Syria.

Now read the following Article on the fatigue of Syria's "Good" neighbors

Syria’s neighbors face “host-country fatigue”

Syrian refugee children attend the Bunia Mustaqbal school in Lebanon's eastern town of Ersal, on the border with Syria, for the first time on October 25, 2014. (Photo: AFP - Maya Hautefueille)

Published Tuesday, October 28, 2014Al-Akhbar

Syria's neighbors are approaching "host-country fatigue" because of huge demand from refugees for housing, schools, jobs and healthcare and scant resources like water, Jordan's foreign minister said on Tuesday.

Lebanon and Turkey echoed that message at an international conference in Berlin on what UN refugee chief Antonio Guterres called "the most dramatic humanitarian crisis the world has faced in a very long time."

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose country has led the way in Europe by taking in 70,000 refugees and giving nearly 650 million euros in aid, said international efforts to stop Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) 's "murderous rampage" would fail without a parallel solution for the growing refugee problem.

"We are approaching host-country fatigue in which the limit of our ability to address the needs of Syrian refugees is being tested and has already been reached," said Jordan's Nasser Judeh, adding that his country alone hosts 1.5 million Syrian refugees and economic migrants.

Steinmeier praised the generosity of neighboring states for sheltering more than three million people who have fled Syria in a 3 1/2-year war that has killed nearly 200,000 people.

But he said simply providing the basics was not enough.

"Hopelessness and despair make people vulnerable to radicalization and manipulation. This is a real threat as half of the refugees are children and teenagers," he said. "We must ensure that these people have a chance to receive an education."

Ministers from those countries appeared unconvinced that the broader international community is playing its part.

"The neighboring countries, including Turkey, have to date had to shoulder an unfair share of the humanitarian burden resulting from the conflict in Syria," said Naci Koru, deputy foreign minister of Turkey, which has taken in more than 1.6 million Syrian refugees so far, at a cost of $4 billion.

"The contribution that we have received from the international community - only $250 million - has fallen significantly short of our expectations," he said.

With ISIS posing a threat to an expanse of territory inside Syria that is home to about 5 million people, "we are faced with the risk of further humanitarian disasters and continued large-scale movements of Syrians towards our borders", Koru added.

Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam said a "daily tragedy" was affecting refugees and the impoverished communities hosting them, while Jordan's Judeh said donors must significantly raise funding to avoid "friction and social tensions" arising.

“Lebanon is no longer officially receiving any Syrian refugees,” Social Affairs Minister Rashid Derbas told Al-Akhbar last Saturday, “except those with urgent humanitarian reasons.”

Lebanon’s population has grown by nearly 25 percent since the war in Syria began in 2011, with over 1.5 million Syrian refugees sheltered in a country with a population of 4 million, making it the highest per capita concentration of refugees in the world.

(Reuters, Al-Akhbar)

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