Fighting at the Qalamoun front broke out again. Fighters holed up in Jurud Ersal – the barren hills east of the town – are talking about the aid they are about to receive from the Islamic State group. They have decided to pledge allegiance to it, either out of fear or greed. As for the Lebanese soldiers kidnapped by al-Nusra Front and the “State,” there is no hope in sight that their case is going to be resolved.
The leader of the Islamic State group in al-Qalamoun, Abu Talal al-Hamad, did not die. The man who took the decision to invade Ersal in early August is still alive, as confirmed by people who know him and some of his close associates who are in contact with him. They affirm that he was not hurt in the Syrian raids that targeted one of the areas where his men are holed up in Jurud Ersal. It so happened that he was not there when the area was hit. The leader of the “State” survived, so did the leader of the al-Nusra Front before him and so did the kidnapped Lebanese soldiers. Rumors that recently multiplied about the death of a certain individual and the injury of another did not change anything. The situation remains as is, while fighters in Jurud Ersal wait for “the aid of the Islamic State to arrive.” These fighters, holed up in the Jurud of Qalamoun and Ersal, are eagerly awaiting this development, saying that it is “going to happen within days.” It is their only hope for survival in light of the siege that has been imposed on them.
Their optimism stems from the recent progress made by the “State” in Homs’ eastern countryside and their “arrival at the outskirts of the town of al-Qaryatain,” 60 kilometers (37 miles) away from Jurud Ersal. As a result, factions from the Free Syrian Army rushed to pledge allegiance to the Islamic State group, either out of fear of confronting it or in the hope of receiving funding from it.
According to sources, these factions believe that “the arrival of the ‘State’ is inevitable after it seized control of large swaths of the Homs countryside.” Therefore, this step will mark the beginning of the official end of the Free Syrian Army in Jurud al-Qalamoun because the most important factions in Jurud al-Qalamoun pledged allegiance to the “State,” like the Independent al-Farouk Brigade under the leadership of Muwafaq Abu al-Sus, the al-Qusayr Brigade under the leadership of Lieutenant Colonel Abu Arab and al-Muqanaa Brigade. All these brigades are now affiliated with the “Islamic State” whether in “Wilayat Homs” or in “Wilayat Damascus.” These three brigades are estimated to have 300 fighters. According to sources, the common denominator between the brigades is that they do not believe in an ideology, but were motivated by fear of the “State” and an interest in its money. Despite the exceptional relationship between al-Nusra Front and the “State” in this part of Syria (unlike other areas), sources close to al-Nusra see developments on this front as “a tactic by the Syrian regime through which the fighters of the “State” are allowed to advance in Homs in order to facilitate their arrival at the Qalamoun mountains and thus officially drag Lebanon into the war. Perhaps that will open the deferred confrontation between the two jihadi groups.” The sources indicate that most of the State’s fighters deployed in the area surrounding the Shaer gas field are foreign fighters, mostly from Chechnya, Europe and the Gulf. According to these sources, this means that “they only came to be martyred,” suggesting that they are different from the fighters of the “State” currently deployed in al-Qalamoun. These sources believe that the arrival of these fighters to Qalamoun means a major battle will break out in Lebanon. They also speak of the quality weapons these fighters have, which they looted from weapons depots in Syria and Iraq.
The case of the kidnapped Lebanese soldiers
On another front, it seems clear that neither al-Nusra Front nor the “Islamic State” are in a rush to end the case of the kidnapped Lebanese soldiers. Not only are they not pressed for time, but they might not even want to resolve it to being with.
Information indicates that “the interest of the kidnappers is to keep the soldiers with them until the end of the winter.” So why would a besieged group that has nothing to lose give up its last negotiating chip? Sources close to al-Nusra toldAl-Akhbar that the group’s leader, Abu Malik al-Talli, is insistent on the three proposals he relayed to the Qatari envoy, who informed him that the Lebanese government favors the third solution which entails the release of five prisoners from the Roumieh Central Prison in Lebanon and 50 female prisoners from Syrian prisons in exchange for every Lebanese soldier that al-Nusra releases. They indicate, however, that Talli believes, by choosing the third proposal, the Lebanese government is wasting time and dragging its feet in its response. Al-Nusra’s leader is reported to have said, “Whoever agrees to release 145 prisoners from Lebanon can raise the number to 300, which amounts to the first suggestion, and end the issue without bringing the Syrian regime into the negotiations and give it veto powers.” In addition: “Abu Malik is not asking for the release of any prisoner detained after the events in Ersal. He specified that the prisoners he wants released have to be detained in Lebanon before the Ersal events because those arrested recently in refugee camps in Lebanon have refrained from taking up jihad for the sake of God.”
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
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