MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2015
I parse the Russian media (corporate and social) on a daily basis and I am always amazed at the completely different way the issue of western sanctions is discussed. I think that it is important and useful for me to share this with those of you who do not speak Russian.
First, nobody in Russia believes that the sanctions will be lifted. Nobody. Of course, all the Russian politicians say that sanctions are wrong and not conducive to progress, but these are statements for external consumption. In interviews for the Russian media or on talk shows, there is a consensus that sanctions will never be lifted no matter what Russia does.
Second, nobody in Russia believes that sanctions are a reaction to Crimea or to the Russian involvement in the Donbass. Nobody. There is a consensus that the Russian policy towards Crimea and the Donbass are not a cause, but a pretext for the sanctions. The real cause of the sanctions is unanimously identified as what the Russians called the "process of sovereignization", i.e. the fact that Russia is back, powerful and rich, and that she dares openly defy and disobey the "Axis of Kindness".
Third, there is a consensus in Russia that the correct response to the sanctions is double: a) an external realignment of the Russian economy away from the West and b) internal reforms which will make Russia less dependent on oil exports and on the imports of various goods and technologies.
Fourth, nobody blames Putin for the sanctions or for the resulting hardships. Everybody fully understands that Putin is hated by the West not for doing something wrong, but for doing something right. In fact, Putin's popularity is still at an all-time high.
Fifth, there is a wide agreement that the current Russian vulnerability is the result of past structural mistakes which now must be corrected, but nobody suggests that the return of Crimea to Russia or the Russian support for Novorussia were wrong or wrongly executed.
Finally, I would note that while Russia is ready for war, there is no bellicose mood at all. Most Russians believe that the US/NATO/EU don't have what it takes to directly attack Russia, they believe that the junta in Kiev is doomed and they believe that sending the Russian tanks to Kiev (or even Novorussia) would have been a mistake.
The above is very important because if you consider all these factors you can come to an absolutely unavoidable conclusion: western sanctions have exactly zero chance of achieving any change at all in Russian foreign policy and exactly zero chance of weakening the current regime. In fact, if anything, these sanctions strengthen the Eurasian Sovereignists by allowing them to blame all the pain of economic reforms on the sanctions and they weaken the Atlantic Integrationists by making any overt support for, or association with, the West a huge political liability.
But the Eurocretins in Brussels don't care I suppose, as long as they feel relevant or important, even if it is only in their heads.
The Saker
First, nobody in Russia believes that the sanctions will be lifted. Nobody. Of course, all the Russian politicians say that sanctions are wrong and not conducive to progress, but these are statements for external consumption. In interviews for the Russian media or on talk shows, there is a consensus that sanctions will never be lifted no matter what Russia does.
Second, nobody in Russia believes that sanctions are a reaction to Crimea or to the Russian involvement in the Donbass. Nobody. There is a consensus that the Russian policy towards Crimea and the Donbass are not a cause, but a pretext for the sanctions. The real cause of the sanctions is unanimously identified as what the Russians called the "process of sovereignization", i.e. the fact that Russia is back, powerful and rich, and that she dares openly defy and disobey the "Axis of Kindness".
Third, there is a consensus in Russia that the correct response to the sanctions is double: a) an external realignment of the Russian economy away from the West and b) internal reforms which will make Russia less dependent on oil exports and on the imports of various goods and technologies.
Fifth, there is a wide agreement that the current Russian vulnerability is the result of past structural mistakes which now must be corrected, but nobody suggests that the return of Crimea to Russia or the Russian support for Novorussia were wrong or wrongly executed.
Finally, I would note that while Russia is ready for war, there is no bellicose mood at all. Most Russians believe that the US/NATO/EU don't have what it takes to directly attack Russia, they believe that the junta in Kiev is doomed and they believe that sending the Russian tanks to Kiev (or even Novorussia) would have been a mistake.
The above is very important because if you consider all these factors you can come to an absolutely unavoidable conclusion: western sanctions have exactly zero chance of achieving any change at all in Russian foreign policy and exactly zero chance of weakening the current regime. In fact, if anything, these sanctions strengthen the Eurasian Sovereignists by allowing them to blame all the pain of economic reforms on the sanctions and they weaken the Atlantic Integrationists by making any overt support for, or association with, the West a huge political liability.
But the Eurocretins in Brussels don't care I suppose, as long as they feel relevant or important, even if it is only in their heads.
The Saker
Nevermind that Europe really cannot afford alienating Russia and nevermind that Merkel and Hollande have just thanked Putin for his role in bringing about Minsk-2, the Eurocretins have passed yet more sanctions against Russia. But that is not the worst. The worst is that including in the sanctions list was Iosif Kobzon, an immensely popular singer (in Russia and the Ukraine), who was born in a Jewish family near Kramatorsk and who spent his youth in the Donbass. Kobzon's "crime"? It was double: not only did Kobzon dare to fully support the Novorussians (with humanitarian aid and messages of support), he traveled to Donetsk to sing in a concert while the city was bombed by the "anti-terrorist" forces and he even invited Zakharchenko on-stage to sing with him.
Clearly, Kobzon is a very dangerous terrorist. See him committing his worst crime:
Clearly, Kobzon is a very dangerous terrorist. See him committing his worst crime:
Somewhere I can even understand the Eurocretins: here is a famous Jewish personality who is a local of the Donbass and who categorically rejects the official AngloZionist narrative about this war. That is, indeed, very offensive to them. But while I can understand the rage and frustration of the European plutocrats, I still marvel at their stupidity.
The problem is that Kobzon is immensely popular. Make sure to read his Wikipedia entry to get all the details of his very interesting career. In fact, he is so popular that he even has his own statue in Donetsk! The second problem is that the only reason Kobzon has to travel to the EU is to get medical treatment. Now, this treatment will be denied to him which is ugly enough. But imagine what this will look like if something happens to him. Kobzon was born in 1937, that makes him 77 years old, not exactly prime youth, and to make things worse, it appears that Kobzon suffers from an advanced stage of prostate cancer. Of course, Kobzon can get treatment not only in Russia, but anywhere else outside the "Axis of Kindness", but since his condition is that severe a fatal outcome is a real possibility. Now how will that look if Kobzon dies while being denied treatment in the EU? Even if he is successfully treated in Russia, Israel or China - what about the very notion of denying a cancer-patient his treatment on account of his singing and delivering humanitarian aid?
Yet again the EU leaders have shown their total lack of common sense combined with a no less total lack of common decency. That latest sanction is a monument of stupidity at best, and a vicious petty and ugly crime at worst.
Oh, and needless to say, the "Euro-Charlies" won't even notice any of that.
Personally I never never liked Kobzon or his music. But today I see him as a hero (though his first heroic act was in 2002 - see the Wikipedia entry).
And my disgust with the continent I was born in knows no limits today.
The Saker
River to Sea
Yet again the EU leaders have shown their total lack of common sense combined with a no less total lack of common decency. That latest sanction is a monument of stupidity at best, and a vicious petty and ugly crime at worst.
Oh, and needless to say, the "Euro-Charlies" won't even notice any of that.
Personally I never never liked Kobzon or his music. But today I see him as a hero (though his first heroic act was in 2002 - see the Wikipedia entry).
And my disgust with the continent I was born in knows no limits today.
The Saker
Uprooted Palestinian 
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