| Dmitry MININ | 15.07.2015 | 00:00 |
 The
recent history of Middle East has been fraught with conflict. More
information has started to surface recently. It gives a clue on what
drives the tumultuous events. Separate leaks lead to conclusion there
were covert plans harbored in Western capitals to reshape the boundaries
of the region. Now the issue has started to come into the open becoming
part of international agenda.
Michael
Hayden, a retired United States Air Force four-star general and former
Director of the National Security Agency, Principal Deputy Director of
National Intelligence and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency,
told French Le Figaro that it was time to tell the truth and admit that
Iraq and Syria do not exist anymore while Lebanon and Libya are on the
verge of collapse. The 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement on the spheres of
influence and control in the Middle East never corresponded to reality.
The General said he does not know how the events will unfold. He is sure
that the policy aimed at restoration of these countries is doomed.
According to Hayden, Iraq and Syria still maintain representation in the
United Nations but in reality these states have disappeared as entities.
Michael
Hayden endorses Jeb Bush in the presidential race and may be offered an
influential position in the foreign policy team in case the Republican
wins in 2016. Democrats have prepared the ground for Republicans to act
in case they win the White House. Hayden does not elaborate on the
future plans, but some of the things he writes give a clue. For
instance, he says the Kurds should become a leading US ally in the
region. The General views Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as an
alternative to radical Islam. Hayden believes it is expedient to restore
full-fledged cooperation with Cairo.
Yaakov
Amidror, who is now the Anne and Greg Rosshandler Senior Fellow at the
BESA Center, is an important analyst, since he is the immediate past
national security adviser to Prime Minister Netanyahu and previously
served as chief of the Research and Analysis Division of Military
Intelligence in the IDF (Israel Defense Force). He has recently
published an open report calledPerfect Storm: The Implications of Middle
East Chaos. In this major monograph Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror
studies the storms convulsing the Arab Middle East. He looks at the
long-term implications of Middle East chaos. Amidror sees civilizational
shifts of historical proportions underway, and he argues that there is
no way of knowing how long the upheavals will continue or how they will
end.
The
troubles go all the way back to the fall of the Ottoman Empire, he
writes, and to the revolution in Iran, the consequent rise of radical
Islam, the attacks of 9/11 on the U.S., the conquest of Iraq as a
response to these, and to the Arab Spring. «To this we must add the
weakness manifested by the international system, especially the U.S.-led
Western alliance; the total worthlessness of global organizations; and
the ruinous activities of local forces unique to each state», as he puts
it. Amidror’s conclusion is that anyone from the outside trying to
influence these regional upheavals in a positive direction will find the
task very difficult. According to him, the states artificially created
by British and French a century ago are on the brink of collapse today.
In
many regions of the Middle East tribes and clans are more important for
self-identification that statehood. Amidror sees drastic changes with
uncertain outcome taking place in the region. «We are witnessing a wide
and deep struggle over the character and future of the Arab nation, and
perhaps of Islam as a whole», the author points out. For Israel, Amidror
writes, the best strategy is to identify the greatest threats looming
in its vicinity, and concentrate its efforts narrowly in dealing with
these specific threats.
Amidror
believes that the West is prone to short-term strategic planning in the
given circumstances. It’s a serious weak point as the fighters for
Islamic caliphate are ready for incessant and long-term war to reach
their goals. The United States provoked the Arab Spring. Now it is doing
its best to avoid the responsibility for the implications. It would
like to influence the events at the distance resorting to different
manipulations. But it’s not enough for reaching the desired goals.
Many
regional leaders are frustrated with the US. It explains the Saudi
Arabia’s aspiration to spur the buddingrapprochement with Russia.
Radical Islamists may become the dominant force in the Muslim world. The
Israeli expert believes that some regimes (especially conservative
monarchies) face existential threats and are urgently seeking ways to
maintain stability in the region. To prevent collapse they may build
alliances with Israel to strengthen its position as a result.
Many
Israeli experts believe it’s not enough. They stand for more drastic
changes. For instance, Zvi Hauser who currently serves as special
counsel at Goldfrab Seligman & Co. in Tel Aviv, was Israel's Cabinet
Secretary from 2009-2013. He was also appointed Chairman of the Cable
and Satellite Broadcasting Council in 1997. Hauser also serves as a
board member for several public institutions. In his article A Historic
Opportunity for Israel in the Golan Heights published by Israeli Haaretz
on July 3 he writes that «The virtuoso use of military technology to
destroy pinpointed targets allowed Israel’s strategic-diplomatic
leadership to fail to grasp the importance of the opportunity,
refraining from adopting a broad, David Ben Gurion-esque historical
vision. Consequently, it ignored the first real opportunity in nearly 50
years to conduct a constructive dialogue with the international
community over a change in Middle Eastern borders and recognition of
Israeli rule on the Golan Heights, as part of the global interest in
stabilizing the region.» According to him, the Golan Heights should be
defended from the Islamic caliphate and Jabhat al Nusra. But whose
interests are met by the activities of these organizations? Besides,
according to his vision, the Golan Heights moving under the Israeli rule
could be seen as some kind of compensation for Israel’s approval of the
Iran nuclear deal now in works.
The
military of Turkey and Jordan are not making a secret of their
intention to enter the territory of Syria. The mission is to create
large buffer zones keeping away the Islamic State. How long will the
military hold the positions in the zones? Will it not be an actual
annexation of the other state’s territory? There are no definite answers
to these questions. According to Israeli sources, air forces of Israel,
United States and other NATO countries are ready to offer air cover in
case of such intervention.
This is the endgame. First, the West and the Syrian neighbors created
the Islamic threat, now they are preparing for final partition of the
country under the pretext of defending the country from it. At that the
key actors pursue different goals. Turkey is very cautious when it comes
to the issue of Kurdish statehood. It shies away from US plans to
bolster the Kurdish movement.
Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey will never allow the
establishment of a Kurdish state in Syria after major gains by Kurdish
fighters. In a strong-worded warning on June 26, Erdogan accused the
Kurds of ethnically cleansing other communities from land they have
taken after pushing back Islamic State forces from the Turkish border.
"I say to the international community that whatever price must be paid,
we will never allow the establishment of a new state on our southern
frontier in the north of Syria," Erdogan was quoted by Turkish media as
telling guests at a dinner to break the Ramadan fast. He accused Kurdish
forces of «changing the demographic structure» of several areas close to the Turkish border, which also have Arab and Turkmen populations.
Ankara
gives priority to its global Pan-Turkish plans, no matter it lacks
resources to implement them. To counter the implementation of «Kurdish
Project» Turkey put forward the idea of uniting all Turkic peoples,
including those who come from Central Asia, making up the population of
Syria. Turkey is trying to form a separate Syrian Turkmen army in Syria
on the basis of Ankara-supported Free Syrian Army. 10 thousand strong it
will fight the Islamic State and Syrian Kurds. Incited by Turkey Syrian
«Turkmen fighting groups in Syria have taken the decision to offer
greater support to each other and work to create a Turkmen army if
conditions permit», Syrian Turkmen Assembly chief Abdel Rahman Mustafa
told Turkish Anadolu news on July 6. The Turkmen officials’ comments
came as the Syrian Turkmen Assembly held a meeting in southern Turkey’s
Gaziantep that brought together Turkmen representatives from Aleppo, Tal
Abyad, Jarabulus, Latakia, Idlib, Raqqa and the Golan.
The
Turkmen military and civilian officials decided to form a military
council which reports to the Syrian Turkmen Assembly, a pro-opposition
group with ties to the Turkish government. The decision to form the
council comes after calls emerged from Turkmen military formations to
fight both the Islamic State and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party.
Turkmen leaders claim they number 3.0 million. According to official
statistics, the number is 100 thousand in comparison to 2 million Kurds
residing in Syria. Probably, the figures are twisted to substantiate
territorial claims to be put forward when the time is right.
Iraq
is a failed state and a headache. According to the plans, its
Sunni-populated areas will become part of Jordan, the US staunch Arab
ally. On Tuesday, July 7, 2015, the House considered H.R. 907, the
United States-Jordan Defense Cooperation Act of 2015, as amended, under
suspension of the rules. H.R. 907 was introduced on February 12, 2015,
by Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and was referred to the Committee on
Foreign Affairs, which ordered the bill reported, as amended, by
unanimous consent on April 23, 2015. H.R. 907 extends to Jordan
expedited congressional review of proposed U.S. arms transfers that is
otherwise reserved for NATO members and other close allies.
Specifically,
the bill states that U.S. policy should be to: support Jordan in its
response to the Syrian refugee crisis; provide necessary assistance to
alleviate the domestic burden to provide for basic needs for assimilated
Syrian refugees; cooperate with Jordan to combat the terrorist threat
from the Islamic State or other terrorist organizations; and, help
secure the border between Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. In 1996, the United
States granted Jordan major non-NATO ally status, which makes non-NATO
countries, who are exceptionally close allies of the United States,
eligible for certain military assistance in the same manner as other
NATO allies. Besides Jordan, the list of US major non - NATO (MNNA)
allies includes Israel, Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.
It’s
hard to say if the abovementioned plans are feasible. Their
implementation is in full swing to undermine the stability of the Middle
East. The BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization have just held
their summits in Ufa. It was stated there that the Eurasian space should
not become a testing ground for geopolitical schemes. Until now the
North-Western part of Eurasia has been protected from chaos and
manipulations staged by those who see it as «strategic chess board». Its
south-western part, or the Middle East, is going through major
reshaping. The chess grand master starts with e2-e4 move. The offensive
could be held back only if the two parts get united on the way of
economic and political rapprochement. The meetings in Ufa offered a
pattern to be used as a plan before the process is launched. This is a
bumpy road with multiple hindrances to overcome. But it is imperative to
go to the very end in order to bring stability to the continent.
|
Uprooted Palestinian 
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!
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Uprooted Palestinian
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!
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