Russian media and the MoD are making a big infowar ado about supplying S-300’s to Syria. Events in the near future will determine if this is actually done, or if Russia is using this media simulacrum as a bargaining chip.
In a major development, Russia has just announced it will carry through with its prior obligation to supply S-300 to Syria. This is to come within 2 weeks after the downing of the IL-20 which Russia says that Israel is ultimately, though ‘indirectly’, responsible for. After a number of days of mixed signals and narrative changes from the Russian side, it appears that the meeting between Israeli and Russian officials has resulted in this big policy shift on the side of Russia.
FRN has reported, and several other analysts have agreed, that it is probable that France was the party that shot down the IL-20. That Israel is both ultimately and yet indirectly responsible, which is now Russia’s official line, is not debated.
However, FRN notes a pattern of Russian statements used as ‘weather balloons’ or ‘canary mines’, utilizing the fact that most news readers forget past news, and that this goes ‘down the memory hole'. FRN notes that Russia has numerous times made similar statements, and then backtracked on them, in unceremonious reports buried in the back-pages of Russian ‘made for Western audiences’ news outlets.
Therefore, FRN takes the ‘wait and see’ approach to Russian announcements. Russia has a history of using major media announcements as a form of information war ‘diplomacy’, creating a simulacrum that this is a very real policy that is ready to go forward. Then Russia will use the public
announcement and the positive public reception it receives, as a bargaining chip to do something else, or gain some other concession, and will drop the commitments.
In relation to the S-300 story itself, Russia has precisely done this already once before: actually guaranteeing S-300’s to Syria, even completing the sale of them, and then failing to deliver due to an ‘Israeli request’. A party that uses and leverages obligations with another party to convince yet a third party to do something else, to the detriment of the initial obligation with the second party, will probably do the same again. Syria is in a weak position at this time to do much more than accept whatever policy Russia engages in, however unpredictable (on the face of it), Russia is.
However, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, within two weeks Russia will finally go through with the delivery an S-300 air defense system to Damascus.
It must be noted, for the historical record, that Russia had made a commitment already to provide these to Syria, which Syria had already begun or made payment on. However, this was previously suspended for no other official reason than a ‘request’ by Israel.
By Joaquin Flores
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