30 MAY 2021
By Denis Korkodinov
Israel and the United States, through their sanctions, pursued the goal of punishing the Ayatollah’s regime, but created a unique “window of opportunity” thanks to which China encompasses not only Iran, but the entire Middle East.
Iran continues to experience significant difficulties from a series of “strange incidents” that, if they do not directly indicate Israel’s involvement, then leave no doubt about who benefits from it. In this regard, it is logical to conclude that Tel Aviv and its partners turned out to be too far from their original goals: to force Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and overthrow the Ayatollah regime. Beijing is becoming a key beneficiary of strategic omissions made by the administrations of Benjamin Netanyahu and Joe Biden.
2010 was a turning point in the history of the anti-Iranian conflict. The era of cybernetic technologies began to replace the stage of active use of traditional types of weapons. Thus, Washington and Tel Aviv managed to introduce the Stuxnet computer virus into the Iranian nuclear program, thanks to which the countries of the “anti-Iranian axis” were able to quickly obtain information on the location of nuclear centrifuges used by Tehran, their capacity, structure and workload. More than 10 years have passed since then, and Iran has undoubtedly succeeded in cyber warfare (thanks, among other things, to China), as a result of which it can also boast of various “gadgets” introduced into the global computer system, capable of extracting top-secret information online from practically anywhere in the world and influence technological processes. For example, in May 2020, Iran, thanks to a virus attack, was able to disable the water supply system in a number of Israeli cities, which, in turn, provoked an Israeli reaction against the Shahid Rajai port located in the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas (Hormozgan province) through which almost half of all Iran’s maritime trade passes.
Starting on June 26, 2020, the Islamic Republic was rocked by news of a string of fires and explosions at strategic sites, including power plants, refineries, ballistic missile fuel production centers and centrifuges for enriched uranium production. The Natanz disasters, for example, have led to power outages in cities such as Quds and Garmderra, which are strategically important because they have several underground military installations linked to Iran’s missile and nuclear programs.
It is worth noting that Tehran is not interested in recognizing all incidents as acts of Israeli aggression. After all, a strict secrecy regime prevents the Iranian leadership from disclosing information about the location of military installations, even in the event of an accident. In addition, in public space, Tehran would look extremely vulnerable if it recognized the effectiveness of Israel’s actions to inflict harm directly on the territory of the Islamic Republic. Consequently, all cases of damage were identified by the Ayatollah regime as minor man-made or natural accidents. And, despite the fact that these “accidents” indicate major problems in Iran’s national defense system, it is worth noting that American and Israeli actions are still not capable of not only destroying the Ayatollah regime, but also forcing it to abandon its nuclear ambitions. In addition, under the influence of sanctions in the Iranian political system, there has been a clear turn towards ultra-conservatism, since the current President of the country, Hassan Rouhani, is no longer able to meet the demand of 80 million ordinary Iranians for a decisive response to Washington and Tel Aviv. In light of this, it is quite obvious that following the results of the presidential elections in Iran, the victory will be won by a follower of the most radical direction in foreign policy, who will not hesitate when it comes to the possibility of unleashing a large-scale military conflict.
Tehran, despite the resistance of a number of countries, continues to actively interfere in the internal affairs of its neighbors. This is dictated not only by the desire to find alternative ways out of the deep crisis, but also by the possibility of once again hurting Israel. In other words, the sanctions policy against Iran, implemented at the initiative of Washington and Tel Aviv, turned out quite differently from what its organizers had planned. Iran not only has not lost its regional influence, but has begun to look closely at China. Meanwhile, if Tehran’s interests in the Middle East cause shock in Israel and the USA, then Beijing’s interests there can also cause real panic in the entire Middle East Quartet (USA, EU, UN and Russia).
The Ayatollah regime has already signed a strategic partnership agreement with China. The term of this agreement was 20 years with the possibility of its extension. During this time, Beijing has pledged to invest over $ 400 million in the Iranian economy in exchange for 10 million barrels of Iranian oil a day. Among other things, China intends to help Tehran in the military sphere: provide modern types of weapons and exchange intelligence information. In other words, Israel and the United States, through their sanctions, pursued the goal of punishing the Ayatollah’s regime, but created a unique “window of opportunity” thanks to which China encompasses not only Iran, but the entire Middle East.
No comments:
Post a Comment