Saturday, 22 September 2018

US Sanctions Reach a Turning Point. De-Dollarization and Collusion against the U.S.

A defining moment for the US sanctions regime
Each year, the USA finds a new country or group of countries to target with sanctions. Each year the USA adds about 1,000 individuals to its ever longer sanctions list. Now, US sanctions are coming to a turning point.
Up till now, the EU – representing around the same percentage of the world economy as the USA – was sitting put, as the USA grew its sanctions regime to ever more bizarre proportions. Together, the USA and the EU constituted nearly half of the world’s economy, and US sanctions previously “only” used to target the other half of the world’s economies. Hitherto, the EU had no compelling reasons to strain its relations with the USA because US sanctions do not affect them.
But now, “secondary sanctions” regarding Iran also hit hard at strategic EU companies and financial institutions and negatively affect EU global strategic interests in energy from the Persian Gulf, US sanctions in effect attack the liberty, security and sovereignty of its biggest group of friends, the EU.
Thus, we have now come to a defining moment for the global sanctions regime, run by the USA.
The US economy is already less than a quarter of the world’s GDP in USD dollars, and in 2023 it will fall to only just about one fifth of the world (source: IMF). The non-US part, the 4 fifths of the world economy (now including the EU and China, constitute an increasingly advanced group, and they are about to collude against the US sanctions regime. Collusion is the result of parallel interests, and the EU may not actually (or at least publicly) coordinate all its counter-sanctions with other major power centers.
We talk about the world’s most powerful and complex political-economic structures starting to fundamental change, here.
So we need to analyze the bigger picture, how complete systems of counter-strategies against present and possible future US sanctions are being planned and implemented by strong powers around the world – all directed (but maybe only sometimes coordinated) against the USA. These systems of counter-strategies will include, but not be limited to, the following:
Finance
Payment transfer streams will develop to avoid US banks – hurting the global position of the USA’s major “growth-industry”. It will be a chance (as well as a good excuse) for the EU, China, Japan, India and everybody else, to nationalistically promote THEIR banks in the international system at the expense of US banks.
Looking at the long-term trend, the US financial industry has become really the ONLY big growth industry which drives upwards the USA economy. No other sector in the US economy has the combination of size and growth, that finance has (weapons are a bit the same, but finance is unique in size) – so this will be very hard for the USA.
US banks hitherto have a central role in facilitating all global money transfers, and a lot of international money transfers between third-countries somehow technically go via the USA. This system architecture will now be stopped – not just by China, but also by the EU and probably by India.
Everybody outside the USA will be reluctant to let their money be touched by US financial institutions, or let their money touch US shores even for a milli-second. And of course, the EU and China know how to engineer legal and technical solutions for this.
The growth of US credit card systems will be impeded. Instead cards from China & EU (and India?) will take bigger shares of this profitable and fast growing world market. Russia was the first country on this trend, kicking out all US credit card companies, and inviting in the Chinese credit card system. The EU may well strengthen the role of EU credit cards, and create actions which “incidentally” (oops!?) will hurt US credit cards in EU markets. The finance center of London, UK will after Brexit be caught in this cross-fire between the EU and the USA – if the UK sides with the USA against EU counter-sanction initiatives, the EU may develop strong tools to draw UK credit-card business into EU-jurisdiction.
New global IT money transfer system regimes, which counteract US influence on SWIFT, will erode US political influence. The SWIFT system is based in Brussels, but under heavy US political influence. Russia has already built itself an alternative to that. The EU can no longer accept that the US might be able hurt EU companies on their SWIFT transfers. The EU will therefore have to take actions either to liberate SWIFT from US control, or to create a parallel EU-system.
Avoid Wall Street
Why should countries take up loans in the US, if they can have the same loans without risk of future sanctions from China or even the EU?
The IPO of the Saudi ARAMCO oil company has been stalled – unconfirmed information states that fear of US courts reaching out against Saudi assets after 11 September, is part of the reason. Already, the trend is that the biggest IPOs in the world move to Asia.
De-dollarization
The EU now will shift trade of energy from dollars to Euro – this trend will diminish dollars in other international trade. Trillions of international dollars from trade may come back to the USA – risking inflation and economic crisis. Gold is according to unconfirmed reports being speedily bought up by governments, not only by Russia and China, but even Turkey, recently also hit by US sanctions.
Strategic supply
Airbus cannot deliver airplanes to Iran, because among other things, vital parts are sourced in the USA. This will change. Strategic supply chains will morph to avoid US sub-suppliers, carriers (ships, airplanes, IT), technology, service partners etc – fundamentally hurting the US global position. We are not speaking used-cars, here, we speak strategic business sectors. The EU and China may not state this anti-US sourcing publicly as an official policy, they will just pull the strings to do it VERY effectively in strategic sectors.
Also, US deliveries in other strategic sectors like food (grain and soy from US farmers) and US energy will be affected by counter-sanctions. China sheds US soybeans and pushes their price down – the EU (less dependent hereof) may then use picking-up cheap surplus soybeans from the USA as a bargaining card. The idea of larger US delivery of LNG to the EU probably will be mostly words, but the amounts of LNG from the USA to the EU may possibly only increase marginally. The EU may even come to a cold calculation, that the EU in the gas sector might have a more maneuverable partner with Russia than with the USA. The EU has in several aspects a substantially advantageous size-relation towards Russia, and not towards the USA, and while Russia enjoys a good relationship with China, Russia will like to balance its relations too.
Tourism and education
Tourism is one of the fastest growing industries in the world, and the USA sells its cultural influence to all tourists coming. University education is not only a strategic business to finance national research, universities are also a cornerstone for the USA to influence future management generations around the world. Why not send tourists and students to other places than the USA? Chinese tourists and students are of significant importance to the USA, and China has plenty of other destinations to send tourists and students other than to the USA.
Using the state to shield business
As a counter-sanction, the EU now moves central banks and state-owned companies into the fray as financing, business partners and intermediate partners, when dealing with Iran. US sanctions on EU state-owned entities can then amount to a US declaration of (economic) war, not only against EU private entities, but directly against EU states.
Buying other than US weapons
The EU recently is implementing a grand and ambitious strategy to increase its own weapons-industry – independent of the USA. To increase the strength of EU weapons-makers, the EU will need to minimize imports of US weapons. The EU will have to make their own, only importing as few items as possible from the USA. Saudi Arabia is by far one of the world’s biggest arms purchasers – and nearly all is bought form the USA. However, should the bromance between the leaderships of Saudi Arabia and the USA cool down, Saudi Arabia would be well advised to diversify their weapons sources too. And Saudi Arabia even already has Eurofighters from the EU and embryonic arms-relations with Russia and to build on.
The collusion against the USA
US trade war unites the EU, China, India, the rest of the world (even the UK) against US interests. With aggressive, unilateral trade-war, started by the US, all the rest of the world will now have even more motives to coordinate their counter-strategies to the US sanctions regime.
The EU may seem slow to react – and this may lure US politicians in their hubris to believe that the EU cannot or will not. But believe me, the EU will – because this has become a strategic must. The EU has seen the hand-writing of US sanctions on their wall – they will think this through, plan and make deep preparations to create EU sovereignty from US control. Just read between the lines of EU’s Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s recent State of the Union speech. When the EU rolls out their US counter-sanction measures, it will be big, comprehensive and VERY effective.
Negative changes for the USA will last
Once alternative systems to US banks, finance, the US dollars etc. have developed and matured, they will NOT go away.
The USA is in its hubris about to destroy its global claim for economic hegemony – and that is a good thing.
Karsten Riise is Master of Science (Econ) from Copenhagen Business School and has university degree in Spanish Culture and Languages from University of Copenhagen. Former senior Vice President Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Mercedes-Benz in Denmark and Sweden with a responsibility of US Dollars 1 billion. At time of appointment, the youngest and the first non-German in that top-position within Mercedes-Benz’ worldwide sales organization.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Palestine: The Politics of Trump Are Doomed To Fail



Published in L’Orient-Le Jour (Lebanon) on 15 September 2018 by Daoud Kuttab [link to original]

Translated from French by Izzy Okparanta. Edited by  Helaine Schweitzer. 
Posted on September 20, 2018.


Last month, President Donald Trump’s administration decided to cut all financing for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, which provides schools, health care and other forms of assistance for these displaced people. Last week, the administration announced the withdrawal of $25 million in financial aid for six hospitals in East Jerusalem, where most of the patients are Palestinian. And that week, the U.S. State Department announced the immediate closure of the Palestine Liberation Organization’s mission in Washington. The objective is to force Palestinian leaders to abandon their social demands regarding the right of return. That will not work. On the contrary, it will decrease the likelihood of a peace agreement on one of the most controversial aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.Trump already tried this tactic before. Last year, his administration threatened, through his Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, to impose financial sanctions on countries that question the recognition of Jerusalem as the official capital of Israel. The U.N. member states responded by voting overwhelmingly to condemn that decision. Using financial blackmail to directly threaten Palestinians would again be ill-advised. In view of the profound personal interest the Palestinians have in the conflict, negotiators are already walking a fine line that requires a nuanced and respectful approach to the feelings and aspirations of the population.Impossible Concessions
Of course, in the business world, financial tactics can be used effectively to complete difficult transactions. But in matters of international diplomacy, crass attempts can inflict certain results; in particular, using money generally has the opposite of the intended effect because it tends to push those threatened by it to adopt more extreme positions. After all, these aren’t simple property dealings where some investors win and others lose. What’s at stake here is dignity, identity and human rights. The results of the negotiations will affect the lives and futures of entire populations.
These public threats discourage even moderates like Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas from softening his public stance on the conflict. Over the years, Abbas opposed violent resistance, demonstrated unprecedented flexibility regarding an independent demilitarized Palestinian state, and has publicly expressed his willingness to compromise on contentious issues like the right of return. But with the tactless intimidation of the Trump administration, such concessions become impossible, because Abbas would no longer be in a position to convince the Palestinians that an agreement would be reached in a fair and equal manner which doesn’t compromise their national pride. For the majority of Palestinians, renouncing a right of return under such circumstances would simply be a defeat.
The fact is that no Palestinian leader can accept any compromise, even technically, if it seems like they are giving in to threats, especially when it means abandoning something that the Palestinians consider a fundamental right. Once the United States makes threats publicly, they are doomed to fail. In fact, the two most important Middle East peace agreements over the course of the last 50 years – the Camp David Accords in 1978 between Israel and Egypt and the Oslo Accords in 1993 between the Israelis and the Palestinians – were able to be signed because the negotiations took place behind closed doors. That freed the negotiators from the pressure of ever-changing public sentiment, allowing them to reach an overall fair agreement that, in its complete form, could be publicly defended.
Justice
However, even behind closed doors, compromise needs to be fair. The Trump administration can’t force the Palestinian side – the weaker of the two – to accept unfair terms under the pretext of political realism, because all future agreements will still need large-scale public support to succeed. If the terms seem excessively one-sided, the accord will collapse. To avoid such a result, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks need to be conducted in a less public manner and draw on accepted, long-standing benchmarks. Palestinian leaders have expressed a willingness to compromise, even on contentious issues like Jerusalem, refugees and even land swaps (on the condition that they are equal in scale and form).
But such a compromise will only be possible within the framework of a peace agreement stipulating the creation of an independent Palestinian state consistent with the borders before 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital. It is that framework which needs to serve as the basis for stakeholders. The first step, however, must be re-establishing confidence, not only between Israelis and Palestinians, but also with other intermediaries besides the U.S., which can’t be considered an impartial mediator if it continues with its flagrant pro-Israeli bias.
The Palestinians are a proud people who made enormous sacrifices in their fight to survive displacement, occupation and prolonged military blockades. They will not submit to blackmail in accepting American-Israeli demands. No peace agreement will be possible if all the involved parties don’t consider this fundamental fact.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Russian Military Expert: U.S. Attack on Iran Could Trigger WW3

The deputy chairman of the Academy of Missile Sciences and Russian Artillery, Colonel Konstantin Sivkov, has listed the places where he thinks local conflicts could trigger a Third World War in the coming future.
In his article published in the daily Russian journal The Military-Industrial Courier, Sivkov describes his view that military conflicts are “intensifying because of the aggravation of regional tensions” by Western countries.
“Once trigger could be the emergence of a Kurdish state with the separation of a part of Iraq and Syria,” the expert warned.
Sivkov also does not exclude that the internal problems of large countries, for example Turkey, could provoke civil wars.
According to him, “there is the possibility of aggression by the United States, Israel, NATO countries and their allies of the Persian Gulf monarchies against Iran.”
Sivkov’s intuition is especially daunting given the recent exposure of US plans to partition Iraq and invade Iran.
“This will be a local scale war,” Sivkov writes, the pretext being “the resumption of Iran’s nuclear and missile program or the beginning of a military conflict between Tehran and one of the key countries in the Persian Gulf, most probably Saudi Arabia.”
The geopolitical basis of these, and other conflicts in Africa, will be opposition to Saudi Arabia and the United States, on the one hand, and China and Iran on the other, for dominance in the region,” the analyst forecasted.
In particular, Sivkov pointed to the war in Afghanistan, where China might be involved, the “sharing of spheres of influence” in the Arctic, and the commitment of some Latin American countries to liberating themselves from US tutelage as other potential flashpoints.
According to the analyst, in Asia, the main sources of medium-term military tensions lie on the Korean peninsula, between Japan and China over disputed islands, and between Japan and Russia over the Kuril Islands, as well as the Taiwan issue.
Sivkov is recurrently known for his insistence that American military power is inferior to Russia’s, and his hyper-climactic military proposals. In February 2018, Sivkov proposed creating a thermonuclear mega-missile at the cost of 210 billion dollars to liquidate the threat of asteroids. On multiple occasions, he has recommended the deployment of weapons of mass destruction to oppose the US.
For example, in November 2017, he advised Russia, in response to the US’ exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, to position non-conventional nuclear arms. For example, he has argued that Russia must create very powerful nuclear warheads capable of “initiating catastrophic geophysical processes on US territory, for example, the explosion of Yellowstone volcano.”
By Paul Antonopoulos
Source

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Russia’s Emerging as the Ultimate Champion of the Middle East

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After being absent as a geopolitical force to be reckoned with in the Middle East for almost two decades, Russia is now seeking ways to downscale Washington’s presence in the region by becoming a pillar of regional security. And it seems that this time around Moscow has every chance to become the undisputed leader across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
It’s safe to say that Washington’s grand plan for the redrawal of the regional map, and especially its proxy designs in Syria, have all failed. Syria’s leader, President Bashar al-Assad, is now steps away from reclaiming all of Syria’s territory. This development has serious regional implications, as it proves to regional players that if you have consistency in the policies you pursue and if you have just the right allies on your side, the tide can be turned in your favor, no matter how much meddling Washington throws your way. At certain points, it seemed that all was but lost for Damascus over the course of the Syrian war, but yet, here we are. This shows that Russia is the only serious partner that actually fulfills its obligations to its partners. This is an important sign that the balance of power in the Middle East is changing significantly, which results in its influence growing across the region, from Morocco to Pakistan.
It’s been pointed out that the process of partial American disengagement from the region which began under President Barack Obama has further increased under President Donald Trump. Furthermore, Washington’s allies in the region today have become hesitant to continue placing all of their strategic faith and security into American hands. Trump’s unique personality has produced more doubts and fears across the Middle East than the personality of any other occupant of the White House prior to him.
This statement can be illustrated by a handful of examples, among which is an abrupt turnaround that the Trump administration made in its approach towards Iran, with Washington pushing with all its might for a war with this major regional player, while ignoring all prior international agreements on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program.
Washington’s relations with Egypt have also fallen victim to the schizophrenic designs of the White House, with the Trump administration erasing Egypt’s status as a former regional Arab leader, transforming it into a state that still must follow American diktats in exchange for insufficient financial support from its overseas masters. However, as soon as Washington decided to introduce sanctions on arms supplies to Egypt, Cairo would launch a process of rapid rapprochement with Moscow.
As for Riyadh, it safe to say that for decades an unwritten deal has governed US-Saudi relations that implied the assured security of the latter was exchanged for assured oil supplies. Those ties ran deep back in 1991 when the United States chose to go to war in defense of Saudi Arabia. However, once Washington transitioned from the list of oil importers into the ranks of oil producers, it has effectively lost its strategic dependence on Saudi Arabia. This resulted in the White House changing its approach to Riyadh which is now reduced to the role of a mindless importer of virtually all the weapons American corporations are capable of producing. The stake through the heart of decades of old ties was driven by Washington through the introduction of JASTA, which empowers 9/11 victims and their relatives in American courts if they choose to sue Saudi Arabia over those despicable terrorist attacks.
Against this backdrop, it’s worth wondering under which circumstances Saudi supreme ruler, king Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud paid his first visit to Moscow back in 2017, with the two countries reaching an agreement on the sale of Russia’s cutting edge S-400 anti-aircraft missile system. However, this visit has also resulted in Moscow and Riyadh reaching an understanding on such topics as the development of bilateral cooperation in nuclear energy and the drop of oil production levels in a bid to restore the price of oil that were deliberately undermined by Washington, inflicting an extensive amount of financial losses on Riyadh.
Turkey, which for several decades was perhaps the most anti-Russian member of NATO, is getting closer to Moscow and, apparently, is not in a hurry to turn its back on it own deal toward the acquisition of S-400 systems, in spite of the vehement objections being voiced in Washington and by NATO. Local analysts argue that an emerging Russia-Turkey-Iran alliance could reshape the entire Middle East.
Further still, a nuclear regional power with a massive army that used to be an faithful ally of Washington, Pakistan, is now also inclined to seek rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing after a series of insulting remarks that Trump made via Twitter against Islamabad.
The Telegraph has also pointed out that Russia exerts growing clout in the Middle East as it managed to redefine its ties with Israel. As Russian military police have begun patrolling the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights, there can hardly be any disputes over the fact that this development constitutes yet another breakthrough for Moscow and its diplomacy.
A recent poll conducted by the Spanish newspaper El Pais among young Arab people in a total of 16 countries has resulted in Russia being called a reliable ally by the absolute majority. It’s curious that the United States has been eliminated from the top ten list of allies of the region, with Washington ranking in 11th place. The decline of the United States and the rise of Russia in the region is one of the most significant trends observed in the course of a similar poll, in which young men and women from North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia), the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain) and the Levant zone (Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen) express their opinions. The majority of respondents (57%) believe that Washington is an enemy of their nations. The least confidence in the good will of the United States is expressed by Persian Gulf youth. It is noteworthy that such an abrupt decline in the role that Washington plays in the region occurred over the period of Trump’s presidency, even though the US was consistently losing its public image prior to Trump taking office.
As the military superiority of the United States declines, Washington has no other options to fall back on to shore up what was the foundation of America’s economic, political, moral, and cultural primacy in the region.
However, the Russian-American struggle for influence in the Middle East will not be resolved through the force of arms, in which the US still hopes it has an edge, but through purely diplomatic means, and here Putin can give Trump a run for his money any day of the week.
Martin Berger is a freelance journalist and geopolitical analyst, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.” 
https://journal-neo.org/2018/09/20/russia-emerging-as-the-ultimate-champion-of-the-middle-east/

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Weekly report on israel’s terrorism against Palestinians (13– 19 September 2018)

(13– 19 September 2018)
Israeli forces continued with systematic crimes in the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) for the weeks of 06 – 12 September, 2018.
Israeli forces continued to use excessive force against Palestinian protestors in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. Two children were killed, and a civilian succumbed to his previous wounds in the Gaza Strip. 171 civilians, including 36 children, 4 journalists and 5 paramedics, were wounded in the Gaza Strip. 12 civilians, including 4 children, were wounded in the West Bank.
Shooting:

Israeli forces continued to use lethal force against Palestinian civilians, who participated in peaceful demonstrations organized within the activities of the “Great March of Return and Breaking the Siege” in the Gaza Strip, which witnessed for the 24th week in a row peaceful demonstrations along the eastern and northern Gaza Strip border area. During the reporting period, the Israeli forces killed 3 Palestinian civilians, including 2 children, while a fourth civilian succumbed to previous wounds in the Gaza Strip.  Moreover, 171 civilians, including 36 children, 4 journalists, and 5 paramedics, were wounded.  In the West Bank, the Israeli forces wounded 12 civilians, including 4 children.

In the Gaza Strip, the Israeli forces killed 2 Palestinian children during the peaceful protest. On 07 September 2018, Belal Mustafa Mohammed Khafajah (17) from Rafah City was killed after being shot with a bullet to the chest.

On the same day, Ahmed Musbah Ahmed Abu Tyour (16) was wounded with a bullet to the right knee during his participation in the Return and Breaking the Siege in eastern Rafah City.  His death was declared the next day after succumbing to his wounds.  A video showed Abu Tyour being shot with a bullet while jumping and making the victory sign around 20 meters away from the Israeli snipers who directly shot him without posing any threat to them.

On 07 September 2018, medical sources at al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza declared the death of Amjad Hamadonah (19) from Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip after succumbing to wounds he sustained during his participation in the Return and Breaking the Siege March on 13 July 2018 in eastern Abu Safiyah Hill in eastern Jabalia.  He was wounded with a bullet to the left knee, cutting the main artery, and at that time, his condition was described as serious.

In a different crime, 09 September 2018, Israeli forces killed ‘Etaf Mohammed Musleh (29) from al-Nuzha Street in Jabalia.  The Israeli forces opened fire at him when he along with other civilians approached the border fence in eastern Abu Safiyah Hill, northeast of Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip.  An Israeli force then moved into the area to evacuate the body of the above-mentioned civilian.  His death was later declared while his body is so far under the Israeli custody.


Injuries in the Gaza Strip during this Week

GovernorateInjuries
TotalChildrenWomenJournalistsParamedicsCritical Injuries
Northern Gaza Strip60160246
Gaza City5140000
Central Gaza Strip1650000
Khan Younis2640010
Rafah1870205
Total1713604511


As part of targeting Palestinian fishermen in the Gaza Sea, the Israeli forces continued to escalate their attacks against the Palestinian fishermen, pointing out to the ongoing Israeli policy of targeting their livelihoods.  During the reporting period, PCHR documented 2 shooting incidents at the fishing boats.

In the West Bank, during the reporting period, the Israeli forces wounded 12 Palestinian civilians, including 4 children, in addition to dozens suffering tear gas inhalation.  Three of those wounded were wounded during the peaceful protests against settlements.
Incursions:

During the reporting period, Israeli forces conducted at least 47 military incursions into Palestinian communities in the West Bank and 2 similar ones into Jerusalem and its suburbs. During those incursions, Israeli forces arrested at least 19 Palestinians, including 3 children in the West Bank.  Meanwhile, five other civilians were arrested in Jerusalem and its suburbs.  Only one of them, a child, is so far under arrest while the rest were released, including an Islamic Endowments Officer, girl, her aunt and the latter’s husband after denying them the entry into al-Aqsa mosque for various periods.

Israeli Forces continued their settlement activities, and the settlers continued their attacks against Palestinian civilians and their property

As part of demolitions, on 06 September 2018, the Israeli forces levelled a 300-square-meter land near Deiristiya village entrance, north of Salfit, in a prelude to confiscate it, noting that its owner was about to build a commercial facility on it as he had obtained a license for this upon a letter he sent to the Palestinian Military Liaison and in coordination with the Israeli Liaison.  It should be noted that the land is adjacent to his house.

As part of the Israeli settlers’ attacks against Palestinian civilians and their property, on 06 September 2018, a group of settlers set fire to a big batch of construction wood boards in Khelet al-Wusta area between the villages of Qasrah and Jaloud in Nablus.

On 08 September 2018, a number of settlers living in the settlement outposts of Hebron’s Old City closed al-Sahlah Road in front of a PRCS ambulances that was carrying a patient on the closed Shuhadaa’ Street and threw stones at it.  As a result, the lights and rear window were damaged and the sides were affected as well.

On 09 September 2018, a number of settlers damaged and broke the branches of 18 ancient trees using saws in al-Hamrah area, east of Kherbet Tawanah to the east of Yata in southern Hebron.  It should be noted that the village has been subject to repeated attacks by settlers, including their attempts to intimidate students and deny them access to their schools in the village in addition to attacking the shepherds.
Use of Force against Demonstrations in Protest against the U.S. President’s Decision to Recognize Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel:

Israeli forces continued its excessive use of lethal force against peaceful demonstration organized by Palestinian civilians in in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and it was named as “The Great March of Return and Breaking Siege.” The demonstration was in protest against the U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration to move the U.S. Embassy to it. The demonstration was as follows during the reporting period:

Gaza Strip:

  • At approximately 07:00 on Friday, 07 August 2018, medical sources at al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City announced the death of Amjad Fayez Ahmed Hamadonah (19) from Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, succumbing to wounds he sustained during his participation in the March of Return and Breaking Siege on 13 July 2018, east of Abu Safiyah Hill, northeast of Jabalia. Amjad was hit with a live bullet to the left knee, cutting the main artery. He had received medical treatment at al-Shifa Hospital until his death was announced on the abovementioned day.

  • At approximately 16:30 on the same day, thousands of civilians, including women, children and entire families, started swarming to the 5 encampments established by the Supreme National Authority for the Great March of Return and Breaking Siege along the border fence, east of the Gaza Strip governorates. They raised flags and chanted national songs and slogans against Trump’s decision to cut US funding for UNRWA. Hundreds, including children and women, approached the border fence with Israel, set fire to tires and gathered 300 meters away from the main border fence.  Some of them attempted to throw stones at the Israeli forces and pulled parts of the barbed-wire fence established inside the Palestinian territories.

The Israeli snipers stationed behind sand barriers along the border fence deliberately and selectively opened fire at the protestors, who were 300 meters away from the main border fence, and fired tear gas canisters. As a result, several casualties were reported.

The incidents were as follows in the following areas:

  • The Northern Gaza Strip: clashes, which erupted in eastern Jabalia, resulted in the injury of 27 civilians, including 8 children and 3 paramedics. Twenty one of those wounded, including 7 children, were hit with live bullets and their shrapnel in addition to Nabil Mahmoud Mohamed Abu Saqer (38), a paramedic at the Military Medical Services, who was hit with a live bullet to the left leg. Moreover, 6 civilians, including a child, were hit with tear gas canisters. In addition, Mohammed Zeyad al-‘Abed Abu Foul (26), a paramedic at PRCS, was hit with a tear gas canister to the left shoulder, and Fadi Osamah Abdul Rahim ‘Ali (23), a paramedic at PRCS, was hit with a tear gas canister to the left foot. The wounded civilians were transferred to the Indonesian and al-‘Awda Hospitals. Doctors classified the injuries of 4 civilians as serious while other civilians’ injuries were between minor and moderate.

  • Gaza City: clashes, which erupted in eastern al-Sheja’eyah neighborhood, resulted in the injury of 51 civilians, including 4 children.

  • The Central Gaza Strip: clashes erupted in 3 points: the school gate, Um Hasaniyah Hill and then the young men moved into Abu Qatroun area in the north. As a result, 16 civilians, including 5 children, were hit with live bullets and their shrapnel. The wounded civilians were transferred via PRCS ambulances to al-Aqsa Hospital. Doctors classified the civilians’ injuries between minor and moderate. Moreover, dozens of civilians suffered tear gas inhalation. Some of them were transferred to the hospital while other received medical treatment on the spot.

  • Khan Younis: clashes, which erupted in the east of Khuza’ah, resulted in the injury of 26 civilians, including 8 children and a Civil Defense paramedic, were wounded. Seventeen of them were hit with live bullets and 9 others were hit with tear gas canisters. Moreover, dozens of civilians suffered tear gas inhalation. The wounded civilians were taken to the field hospital and then transferred to Nasser, Gaza European and al-‘Awda Hospitals in the city.

According to observations by PCHR’s fieldworker, the Israeli forces heavily deployed in the border area amidst heavily firing of live bullets and tear gas canisters. As a result, the number of casualties increased comparing with the last weeks, despite the peaceful nature of most of the demonstrations.

  • Rafah City: clashes, which erupted in the east of the city, resulted in the killing of Bilal Mustafa Mohammed Khafajah (17) after he was hit with a live bullet to the chest at approximately 17:45 on the same day, when he was among the demonstrators around 100-150 meters away from the western side of the border fence between the Gaza Strip. Bilal died upon arrival at Gaza European Hospital in Khan Younis. Moreover, 18 civilians, including 7 children, were hit with live bullets and their shrapnel. One of them was a person with a disability in addition to a young man who was wounded in the same leg that was wounded and a platinum rod fixed. Moreover, 2 paramedics were wounded and they were identified as:

  1. Mahmoud Mohammed Sa’ed Shata (25), a reporter at “Rowad Al-Haqiqa” Network from Rafah, was hit with a live bullet to the left thigh.
  2. Nash’at Nasim Khalil Na’im (20), a reporter at Barq Gaza Network from Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip, was hit with a live bullet to the left arm.

The wounded civilians were taken to the medical point in the Return encampment, east of Rafah and then transferred to Abu Yusuf al-Najjar hospital in Rafah and Gaza European Hospital in Khan Younis. Doctors classified 5 civilians’ injuries as serious. One of them namely Ahmed Mesbah Ahmed Abu Toyour (16)died at approximately 10:15 on Saturday, 08 September 2018 at Gaza European Hospital in Khan Younis, succumbing to wounds he sustained after he was hit with a live bullet to the right knee. Ahmed was wounded when he was in front of a site belonging to the Israeli snipers, 20 meters into the west of the border fence between the Gaza Strip and Israel Ahmed threw a stone at the soldiers’ site, raised the victory sign and jumped and exclaimed before them. after his injury, Ahmed underwent 2 surgeries that continued for 6 hours and he received 30 blood units. He was then admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) until his death was announced.

  • At approximately 16:00 on Monday, 19 September 2018, dozens of Palestinian civilians gathered near the coastline between the Gaza Strip and Israel upon calls from the Supreme National Authority for the Great March of Return and Breaking Siege in which they called for participation in the Return coastal camp, which was established on Monday morning, adjacent to “Zikim” military base , northwest of Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip. It should be noted that this is the seventh time for Palestinian boats to sail for Breaking the Siege from Gaza Seaport towards the northern Gaza Strip coastline adjacent to the abovementioned camp.
The Israeli gunboats heavily opened fire and fired a number of  sound bombs at the boats of Breaking the Siege that approached the water barrier established by the Israeli forces and extends to the border fence. The Israeli forces claimed that they established the border fence fearing of naval infiltration.
Meanwhile, Israeli soldiers stationed behind sand barriers and cement cubes heavily opened fire and fried a large number of tear gas canisters at Palestinian civilians participating in the demonstration and approached the coastline. As a result, 33 civilians, including 8 children, a paramedic and a journalist, were wounded. The injuries were classified as follows:
Fifteen civilians, including 3 children, were hit with live bullets and its shrapnel. Among those wounded was ‘Atiyah Nasser Ahmed Hejazi (28), a photojournalist at al-Manarah News Agency from Sheikh Redwan neighborhood in Gaza City, was hit with a live bullet to the right knee.
Moreover, 18 civilians, including 5 children, were hit with tear gas canisters. Among those wounded was Hasan Rateb Hasan al-‘Esawi (41), a volunteer paramedic at the Palestinian Ministry of Health from Khan Younis, was hit with a tear gas canister to the head, and HuseinJamal Mohammed Mansour (26), a photo journalist at Shams News  and the Guardian News Agency from al-Buraij refugee camp, was hit with a tear gas canister to the head.
The wounded civilians  were transferred via ambulances belonging to PRCS and Medical Services to the Indonesian and al-‘Awda Hospitals. Doctors classified 2 civilians” injuries as serious while the other civilians’ injuries were between minor and moderate.

West Bank:

  • Following the Friday Prayer on 07 September 2018, dozens of Palestinian civilians and international human rights defenders gathered on agricultural lands of al-Resan Mount area, west of Ras Karkar village, west of Ramallah in protest against the Israeli settlers’ attempt to seize and confiscate the land. When the civilians arrived at the abovementioned area, the Israeli soldiers fired live and rubber bullets, sound bombs and tear gas canisters at the protestors. As a result, a 22-year-old civilian was hit with a rubber bullet to the right hand sustained wounds to the right foot, a 19-year-old civilian sustained wounds to the right foot and a 29-year-old civilian sustained wounds to the foot. The wounded civilians were taken via a PRCS ambulance to Palestine Medical Complex to receive medical treatment. Doctors classified their injuries as minor. Moreover, dozens of civilians suffered tear gas inhalations while others sustained bruises throughout their bodies due to being heavily beaten by the Israeli soldiers. The Israeli forces also arrested ‘Amr Rajeh ‘Obaidah (17), and Abdul Hakim Mohammed Abu ‘Adi (14).

  • Around the same time, dozens of Palestinian civilians and international and Israeli human rights defenders organized peaceful demonstrations in protests against the annexation wall and settlement activity in Ni’lin and Bil’in villages, west of Ramallah. Israeli forces used force to disperse the protestors by firing live and rubber bullets, sound bombs and tear gas canisters at them. They also chased them into olive fields and between houses. As a result, dozens of civilians suffered tear gas inhalation while others sustained bruises after Israeli soldiers beat and pushed them.

  • Around the same time, dozens of Palestinian civilians from Kherbat Qalqas, south of Hebron, and international and Israeli human rights defenders organized a peaceful demonstration at the entrance to Kherbat Qalqas, which has been closed for 19 years. The protestors demanded to open the entrance. They raised flags and chanted slogans. Large Israeli forces arrived at the area and prevented the civilians from reaching the Bypass Road (60), which connects the village. After half an hour, the soldiers fired sound bombs at the participants, forced them to leave the area and announced it a military closed zone. As a result, a number of civilians suffered tear gas inhalation. It should be noted that Kherbat Qalqas is inhabited with around 3000 persons is separated from the other neighborhoods of Hebron by Road (60). In addition, all life forms are connected with Hebron as the inhabitants receive medical services and many of them work at Hebron, Moreover, about 100 high school and university students daily go to educational institutions in the city.
Settlement activities and attacks by settlers against Palestinian civilians and property

Israeli forces’ attack:

  • At approximately 06:20 on Thursday, 06 September 2018, Israeli forces leveled a 400-square-meter land near the entrance to Dirsitiyia village, north of Salfit, in a prelude to confiscate it. The plot of land belongs to Ibrahim Mostafa Abu Zaid and was leveled under the pretext of being within Area C that is under the Israeli control. The land’s owner was intending to build a commercial facility on it as he had obtained a construction license to build it after sending a letter to the Palestinian Military Liaison which coordinated with the Israeli Liaison in this regard. It should be noted that the abovementioned land was adjacent to his house.

Israeli settlers’ attack:

  • On Thursday morning, 06 September 2018, a group of Israeli settlers from “Isch Kudz“ settlement outpost established on Jaloud village’s lands from the eastern side, southeast of Nablus, set fire to a big batch of construction wood boards belonging to Dawwoud ‘Obaid al-‘Issawiy in Khelit al-Wusta area between Qasrah and Jaloud villages. This new attack in the abovementioned area came to be listed within the series of ongoing attacks by the Israeli settlers against Palestinian civilians and their property in “Isch Kudz “settlement outpost in the outskirts of Jaloud village.

  • At approximately 16:00 on Saturday, 08 September 2018, a number of Israeli settlers from settlement outposts in Hebron’s Old City, closed al-Sahlah Street in front of a PRCS ambulance. The PRCS arrived to take a patient from the closed al-Shuhadah Street. The settlers threw stones at the ambulance, causing material damage to it. The Israeli forces stationed in the Old City’s neighborhoods arrived at the area and allowed the PRCS ambulance to leave without chasing the settlers involved in the incident.

  • On Sunday, 09 September 2018, a group of Israeli settlers from “Havat Maon“ settlement established on Kherbit Towanah lands, east of Yatta, south of Hebron, damaged and cut with electric saws the branches of around 18 ancient trees belong to al-Rab’I Family in al-Hamrah area, east of al-Kherbah. When farmers arrived at the area, the Israeli police came to the area, opened an investigation and asked the affected persons to submit a complaint in “Kiryat Arba“ Police Station. It should be noted that Kherbit Towanah is exposed to ongoing attacks by the Israeli settlers who attempt to intimidate students and deny them access to their schools in the village in addition to attacking shepherds.

Recommendations to the International Community

PCHR warns of the escalating settlement construction in the West Bank, the attempts to legitimize settlement outposts established on Palestinian lands in the West Bank and the continued summary executions of Palestinian civilians under the pretext that they pose a security threat to the Israeli forces. PCHR reminds the international community that thousands of Palestinian civilians have been rendered homeless and lived in caravans under tragic circumstances due to the latest Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip that has been under a tight closure for almost 11 years. PCHR welcomes the UN Security Council’s Resolution No. 2334, which states that settlements are a blatant violation of the Geneva Conventions and calls upon Israel to stop them and not to recognize any demographic change in the oPt since 1967.  PCHR hopes this resolution will pave the way for eliminating the settlement crime and bring to justice those responsible for it. PCHR further reiterates that the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, are still under Israeli occupation in spite of Israel’s unilateral disengagement plan of 2005.  PCHR emphasizes that there is international recognition of Israel’s obligation to respect international human rights instruments and international humanitarian law.  Israel is bound to apply international human rights law and the law of war, sometimes reciprocally and other times in parallel, in a way that achieves the best protection for civilians and remedy for the victims.
  1. PCHR calls upon the international community to respect the Security Council’s Resolution No. 2334 and to ensure that Israel respects it as well, in particular point 5 which obliges Israel not to deal with settlements as if they were part of Israel.
  2. PCHR calls upon the ICC this year to open an investigation into Israeli crimes committed in the oPt, particularly the settlement crimes and the 2014 offensive on the Gaza Strip.
  3. PCHR Calls upon the European Union (EU) and all international bodies to boycott settlements and ban working and investing in them in application of their obligations according to international human rights law and international humanitarian law considering settlements as a war crime.
  4. PCHR calls upon the international community to use all available means to allow the Palestinian people to enjoy their right to self-determination through the establishment of the Palestinian State, which was recognized by the UN General Assembly with a vast majority, using all international legal mechanisms, including sanctions to end the occupation of the State of Palestine.
  5. PCHR calls upon the international community and United Nations to take all necessary measures to stop Israeli policies aimed at creating a Jewish demographic majority in Jerusalem and at voiding Palestine from its original inhabitants through deportations and house demolitions as a collective punishment, which violates international humanitarian law, amounting to a crime against humanity.
  6. PCHR calls upon the international community to condemn summary executions carried out by Israeli forces against Palestinians and to pressurize Israel to stop them.
  7. PCHR calls upon the States Parties to the Rome Statute of the ICC to work hard to hold Israeli war criminals accountable.
  8. PCHR calls upon the High Contracting Parties to the Geneva Conventions to fulfill their obligations under article (1) of the Convention to ensure respect for the Conventions under all circumstances, and under articles (146) and (147) to search for and prosecute those responsible for committing grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions to ensure justice and remedy for Palestinian victims, especially in light of the almost complete denial of justice for them before the Israeli judiciary.
  9. PCHR calls upon the international community to speed up the reconstruction process necessary because of the destruction inflicted by the Israeli offensive on Gaza.
  10. PCHR calls for a prompt intervention to compel the Israeli authorities to lift the closure that obstructs the freedom of movement of goods and 1.8 million civilians that experience unprecedented economic, social, political and cultural hardships due to collective punishment policies and retaliatory action against civilians.
  11. PCHR calls upon the European Union to apply human rights standards embedded in the EU-Israel Association Agreement and to respect its obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights when dealing with Israel.
  12. PCHR calls upon the international community, especially states that import Israeli weapons and military services, to meet their moral and legal responsibility not to allow Israel to use the offensive in Gaza to test new weapons and not accept training services based on the field experience in Gaza in order to avoid turning Palestinian civilians in Gaza into testing objects for Israeli weapons and military tactics.
  13. PCHR calls upon the parties to international human rights instruments, especially the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), to pressurize Israel to comply with its provisions in the oPt and to compel it to incorporate the human rights situation in the oPt in its reports submitted to the relevant committees.
  14. PCHR calls upon the EU and international human rights bodies to pressurize the Israeli forces to stop their attacks against Palestinian fishermen and farmers, mainly in the border area.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
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Very accurate messages at a very sensitive moment رسائل شديدة الدقة في لحظة شديدة الحساسية

Very accurate messages at a very sensitive moment

سبتمبر 21, 2018

At the moment of negotiation and power, the game of the international and regional abyss seems at its peak. While the alliance led by Russia and includes mainly Iran and China and other allies as Syria seeks to continue its progress without a direct confrontation with America, America seems unable to bear and to accept the progress of the opposite alliance over Asia that puts Israel and Saudi Arabia in a difficult position. Although the US military presence recedes, but it seems that it is ready to send confined messages of power hoping to impose retreat without a clash.
The language in which Washington talks about sanctions on Iran and Russia especially regarding energy sector is like a declaration of war to Moscow and Tehran. The meeting of the Russian and the US energy ministers yesterday witnessed a negotiation that included mutual offers. Washington announced more sanctions on the Nord Russian Stream project which transfers gas to Northern Europe, despite the fact that Russia was ready for understandings on European gas market that grants a share to the US rock gas companies, as promised by the Russian President Vladimir Putin at Helsinki Summit, but the Americans who need this gain bet on including other issues that are related to the region especially Syria and Iran, but these issues do not get Russia’s acceptance to the extent that it would be ready to withdraw the special offer of rock gas if the American escalations of sanctions continued.
In Iraq, there is a high –level American-Iranian political security engagement and high-ceilinged mutual messages. Washington which knows its inability to bear a direct confrontation with the resistance forces tries to link this confrontation with the escalation against Iran and threatening it of paying the cost of targeting any US bases in Iraq, but the Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard called in a special statement to Al Manar TV those who have military bases in the range of two thousands kilometers of Iran to be aware of the accuracy of the Iranian missiles. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia tries to thwart Geneva talks in preparation for the recent attack which it tries through it to change the military situation in Hodeidah region, where Washington was the cause of the Saudi attack as was revealed by the statements of the US Secretary of State and the Minister of Defense before the Congress considering that Saudi Arabia abides by the required standards in avoiding the civilians, despite the UN recognition of the massacres committed by Saudi Arabia. But the humanitarian title is the pretext which covers Washington’s positions for supporting any war or exerting pressure to stop it.
Meantime, Russian-Chinese unprecedented maneuvers take place, in which three hundred thousand officers and soldiers and all the weapons of land, sea, and air participate. These maneuvers are supervised by the Russian President Vladimir Putin. They are called “East 2018” to announce a Russian- Chinese readiness to confront any military challenge. This message is clear in its timing and content as the Iranian one, it says to Washington that any escalation will lead to a confrontation and we are ready.
These exchange messages take place at the backdrop of the decision of not to collide, this means that they are negotiating messages, and that Idlib  is the only available engagement arena for recoding points along with the US bets on achieving something in Hodeidah. In Idlib, the Russian- American-Iranian race was to get the Turkish ally which Russia and Iran won. The US army became Al Nusra front which they wait its protection from Turkey through the temptation of a canton led by Ankara in the northern of Syria that gives the real legitimacy for a canton led by Washington in the eastern of Euphrates. Therefore it is a division that gives the legitimacy to another division and an occupation that gives legitimacy to another occupation, but under the determination of resolving, the Turkish position had changed, it has abided by fighting Al Nusra, where everyone is curious, observing, and waiting.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

رسائل شديدة الدقة في لحظة شديدة الحساسية

سبتمبر 14, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– في لحظة تجاذب يجتمع فيها التفاوض ورسائل القوة، تبدو لعبة حافة الهاوية الدولية والإقليمية في الذروة، وبينما يسعى الحلف الذي تقوده روسيا ويضمّ بصورة رئيسية إيران والصين وحلفاء آخرين تتقدّمهم سورية، إلى تثبيت مكاسبه ومواصلة التقدم دون الدخول في صدام مباشر مع أميركا، تبدو واشنطن عاجزة عن تحمّل وتقبل تقدم الحلف المقابل الذي يمنحه التفوق على مساحة آسيا ويضع «إسرائيل» والسعودية في وضع صعب، بينما الانتشار العسكري الأميركي يتراجع، ولكنها تبدو بالمقابل مستعدة لرسائل الضرب تحت الحزام أملاً بفرض تراجع دون وقوع الصدام.

– اللغة التي تتحدّث فيها واشنطن عن العقوبات على إيران وروسيا، خصوصاً في قطاع الطاقة، تعادل بالنسبة لموسكو وطهران إعلان حرب، وقد شهد اجتماع وزيري الطاقة الروسي والأميركي يوم أمس، جولة تفاوض تضمّنت عروضاً متبادلة، لكنها لم تخرج بغير الاتفاق على مواصلة التفاوض، بينما أعلنت واشنطن مزيداً من العقوبات على برنامج السيل الشمالي الروسي الذي ينقل الغاز إلى أوروبا الشمالية، رغم العرض الروسي بالاستعداد لتفاهمات تنحصر في سوق الغاز الأوروبية تتيح حصة منها لشركات الغاز الصخري الأميركي كما وعد الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين في قمة هلسنكي، لكن الأميركيين الذين يحتاجون هذا المكسب يراهنون على ضمّ ملفات أخرى تتصل بالمنطقة وخصوصاً بسورية وإيران، لا تجد قبولاً روسياً وتصل حد الاستعداد لسحب العرض الخاص بالغاز الصخري، إذا استمر التصعيد الأميركي بالعقوبات.

– في العراق تجاذب أمني سياسي أميركي إيراني في الذروة، ورسائل متبادلة عالية السقوف، وواشنطن التي تعرف عجزها عن تحمّل مواجهة مباشرة مع قوى المقاومة، تحاول ربط تلك المواجهة بالتصعيد مع إيران وتهديدها بصفتها مَن سيدفع ثمن أي استهداف للقواعد الأميركية في العراق، التي جاء ردّها على لسان قائد الحرس الثوري الإيراني في تصريح خاص بقناة المنار، داعياً الذين يملكون قواعد عسكرية في نطاق ألفي كلم حول إيران إلى التيقن من دقة إصابة الصواريخ الإيرانية. وفي اليمن تذهب السعودية إلى إفشال محادثات جنيف تمهيداً للهجوم الأخير الذي تحاول عبره تغيير الوضع العسكري في منطقة الحديدة، حيث تقف واشنطن بقوة وراء الهجوم السعودي، كما أظهرت تصريحات وزيري الخارجية والدفاع أمام الكونغرس باعتبار السعودية تلتزم بالمعايير المطلوبة في تجنّب إصابة المدنيين، رغم الإقرار الأممي بالمجازر التي ترتكبها السعودية، والعنوان الإنساني هو الباب الذي يغطي مواقف واشنطن بدعم أي حرب أو الضغط لوقفها.

– في هذا التوقيت تخرج مناورات روسية صينية غير مسبوقة. وهي الأولى من نوعها، ويشترك فيها ثلاثمئة ألف ضابط وجندي، وكل أسلحة البر والبحر والجو، ويشرف عليها الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين، وتطلق عليها تسمية «الشرق 2018»، لتعلن جاهزية روسية صينية مشتركة لمواجهة أي تحدّ عسكري، والرسالة بتوقيتها ومضمونها واضحة، وكما الرسالة الإيرانية، تقول لواشنطن إن التصعيد سيقود إلى المواجهة، ونحن جاهزون إن رغبتم بها.

– الرسائل المتبادلة على حافة الهاوية تتمّ على خلفية قرار بعدم التصادم. وهذا يعني أنها رسائل تفاوضية، وأن ساحة الاشتباك التي تقدّمها إدلب هي المساحة الوحيدة المتاحة لتسجيل النقاط، مع رهانات أميركية على تحقيق شيء ما في الحديدة هذه المرة، لكن في إدلب كان السباق الروسي الأميركي الإيراني على موقع تركيا، وقد كسبته روسيا وإيران. وصار جيش الأميركيين هو جبهة النصرة التي كانوا ينتظرون حمايتها من تركيا، بإغراء كانتون تقوده أنقرة في شمال سورية يمنح الشرعية الواقعية لبقاء كانتون تديره واشنطن شرق الفرات، فتقسيم يمنح شرعية لتقسيم واحتلال يمنح شرعية لاحتلال. وأمام العزم والحزم بالذهاب للحسم تغيّر الموقف التركي، ليلتزم التعهّد بمقاتلة النصرة، وهناك الكل حذر والكل يراقب، والكل ينتظر.

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