Orient Tendencies
Monday June 10, 2013, no135
Weekly information and analysis bulletin specialized in Arab Middle Eastern affairs prepared by neworientnews.com
Editor in chief Wassim Raad
wassimraad73@gmail.com
New Orient Center for Strategic policies
__
The Western conspiracy against Syria is dying
By Ghaleb Kandil
The victory of the Syrian Arab Army in the Qoussair region is not an exception but a confirmed general trend. Terrorist and Takfirist gangs are collapsing due to the decline of popular support for armed rebellion. Indisputable historical rule is that any military force, even if it is a powerful, large and well equipped army, loses its resilience if it no longer enjoys a favorable social environment. So could we say for bloodthirsty mercenaries groups, coming from 82 different countries who commit the worst crimes against the local population. The latest being Sunday, the execution of a 15 years old child before his family for blasphemy (see below). Moreover, the Syrian people have discovered that these groups are closely related to Israel. Commenting on the situation in Syria, the head of German intelligence services, quoted by Der Spiegel, said that the Syrian army would continue its advance to regain control of most parts of Syria the next three months. This evaluation confirms information saying that the Qatari Hamad bin Jassem expressed before President Barack Obama fears of a victory of the Syrian state over takfirist gangs that Qatari leaders have created, trained and funded.
The great imbalance of forces in Syria in favor of the national state appears more clearly now. The growing popularity of President Bashar al-Assad is no longer a secret. Even Nato’s reports claim that nearly two-thirds of Syrians support their president. It is obvious that this survey, commissioned by members of NATO, has been achieved in areas that are not beyond the control of the State.
These realities resulting from the attachment of a majority of Syrians to their State, the independence of their country and their army. The fact that the hegemonic project used as its main tool takfiris groups allowed the Syrians to quickly understand the nature of the Western conspiracy targeting their homeland. The Western project broke on a block crossing religious communities, which includes a majority of Sunnis and Eastern Christians, who have Arab and national choices. If this block does not exist in Syria, the state would have collapsed long ago.
The events in Turkey are an additional expression of successive defeats for the anti-Syrian alliance. They are reflected in the helplessness and confusion that characterize the action of the United States. The purge carried out by Barack Obama in his administration is a proof: Hillary Clinton, David Petraeus, Robert Ford … many figures that have disappeared from the scene.
One year after the Geneva agreement, it is clear that the United States, the retrograde Gulf monarchies and the neo-Ottoman government, have exhausted all possibilities to intensify their aggression against Syria. But despite the huge resources deployed, this alliance was stopped by the resistance of the Syrian national state, its army and people, not to mention the determination and strong will of President Bashar al-Assad. Strong regional and international alliances built by Syria in recent decades have also been a major asset which has strengthened the resilience of the country.
Erdogan defies demonstrators
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday his Islamic-rooted government was open to “democratic demands” as he hit back at EU criticism of his handling of a week of deadly unrest.
Erdogan accused international allies of double standards after European Union Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule called for a “swift and transparent” probe into police abuses against anti-government protesters in Turkey, a longtime EU hopeful.
“Peaceful demonstrations constitute a legitimate way for these groups to express their views,” Fule said at an Istanbul conference attended by Erdogan. “Excessive use of force by police against these demonstrations has no place in such a democracy.”
In a sharp retort, the combative premier said: “In any European country, whenever there is a violent protest against a demolition project like this, believe me, those involved face a harsher response.”
Turkey’s trouble began when police cracked down heavily on a small campaign to save Istanbul’s Gezi Park, spiralling into nationwide demos against Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), seen as increasingly authoritarian.
Police used tear gas and water cannon to disperse demonstrators, injuring thousands and leaving three dead in mass unrest that has thrown up the biggest challenge to Erdogan’s decade in power.
Erdogan, who has dismissed the demonstrators as vandals and extremists, on Friday said that he was “against violence”, adding in a more conciliatory tone: “I’m open-hearted to anyone with democratic demands.”
Defying Erdogan’s latest call to end the protests, thousands massed peacefully on Istanbul’s Taksim Square for an eighth night, gathering in a festive atmosphere to a soundtrack of drums and pipe music. Large crowds also took to the streets of the capital Ankara, with no reports of confrontation.
“We need democracy in Turkey, that’s why we come to Taksim Square,” Burhan Ozdemirci, 30, told AFP as he sipped a beer on the square, the epicenter of the protests.
Bracing for Erdogan’s reaction to their continued demonstrations, many said they felt safe in Taksim, which has seen no police presence since police pulled out of the site last Saturday.
“Taksim is our palace,” said 21-year-old student Eray Dilek, adding that he was more nervous for protesters gathering in other cities.
In a bid to boost their profile, supporters of the protest movement raised more than $100,000 in an online fundraising drive to run a full-page ad in the New York Times Friday to explain why the demonstrators are so furious.
“People of Turkey have spoken: we will not be oppressed,” read the ad, saying that during Erdogan’s 10 years in power Turks have seen their civil rights and freedoms erode, with many journalists, artists and elected officials arrested.
Erdogan has likened the trouble in Turkey to the Occupy Wall Street movement that sprang up in the United States in 2011 and inspired copycat protests in European cities.
But the US embassy in Ankara wrote on its Twitter feed on Friday: “No US deaths resulted from police actions in #OWS.”
Erdogan’s slightly softer stance appeared to calm investors on Friday. The Istanbul stock exchange’s main index partially recovered heavy falls earlier in the week to close 3.21 percent higher.
Analysts warn that the unrest risks scaring off the foreign financing on which Turkey’s recent economic development has largely relied.
The national doctors’ union says 4,785 people have been injured in the countrywide protests, 48 of them severely.
The unrest has left three people dead — two young protesters and a policeman, according to officials and doctors.
Critics accuse Erdogan of forcing conservative Islamic values on Turkey, a mainly Muslim but staunchly secular nation.
Jailed Kurdish rebel chief Abdullah Ocalan on Friday voiced his support for the anti-government protests, despite his involvement in peace talks with the Turkish authorities (AFP).
______________________________________________________________
Statements
Vladimir Putin, Russian president
«The contract (on advanced S-300 air defense) was signed a few years ago but it hasn’t been fulfilled yet. We don’t want to upset the balance in the region. Russian arms sales to Syria are carried out based on transparent, internationally recognized contracts. They don’t violate any international provisions. Russia is dissatisfied with the EU decision to relax the arms embargo on Syria. The question of participation by the opposition in the Geneva conference should be resolved as soon as possible. As is known, the Syrian leadership already officially declared its agreement to take part in the work.»
Ayman Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda Leader
«Lions of the Levant, unite around this honorable goal and rise above sectarian affiliations. America, its agents and allies want you to shed your blood and the blood of your children and women to bring down the criminal Baathist regime, and then set up a government loyal to them and to safeguard Israel’s security. Every free Muslim in Palestine should unite with his Muslim brothers to implement Sharia (Islamic law) and rule by it, and make it a reference above all references, and to liberate Palestine in order to set up an Islamic state, even if the West hates that and calls it terrorism and extremism.»
Nawaf Moussaoui, Hezbollah MP
«If Takfirist groups are victorious, there will be no more Lebanon. The country will be divided, there will be massacres, and some of the communities will be displaced. If we want to defend Lebanon, we must not allow these groups to take control of Syria. That is why we are fighting there to defend the unity of Syria and thereby to defend the unity of Lebanon. The conflict in Syria is not a battle for political reform and for the establishment of a democracy. This is much more serious than some imagine. It is a US-Israeli war involving European governments and Arab regimes, with the aim to bring down the government in Syria.»
Walid Jumblatt, Progressive Socialist Party leader
«I believe in the principle of Hezbollah’s participation in the government, whether directly or indirectly, since it is not possible to isolate anyone or abolish anyone. Forming a new government has become highly necessary in order to move differences from the streets and tackle them on the Cabinet table.»
Ali Awad Asiri, Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to Lebanon
«It is important for all Saudis present in Lebanon to return to their country for their own safety as noted in the travel advisory issued by the Gulf Cooperation Council Wednesday. The embassy sent a text message to all citizens who have a Saudi mobile number in Lebanon to inform them of the country’s concerns over their security and safety.»
___________________________________________________________
Events
A new video has surfaced allegedly filmed in Syria that shows a group of rebels, some of them speaking Flemish, use a large knife to behead a man. The rebels, chanting “God is great,” first try to slice the man’s head off, but then begin hacking at his throat after failing to make a clean cut. The Flemish-speakers, who may be among the hundred or so Belgians believed to have joined the fight against Syria’s government, are heard complaining that the knife is dull, according to a translation of the video. A recent report by King’s College London has said up to 600 people from 14 European countries, including Austria, Britain, Germany, Spain and Sweden had taken part in the Syria conflict since it began in March 2011. The largest single contingent was from Britain but based on population, the figures for Belgium, Ireland and the Netherlands were the most significant, with around 200 between them.
-
Islamist rebels fighting the Syrian regime shot dead a 15-year-old child in front of his parents and siblings Sunday after accusing him of blasphemy, a monitoring group said. “An unidentified Islamist rebel group shot dead a 15-year-old child who worked as a coffee seller in the northern city of Aleppo, after they accused him of blasphemy,” said Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman. Abdel Rahman said the rebel group likely comprised foreign jihadists. “They spoke classical Arabic, not Syrian dialect,” he told AFP. “They shot the boy twice — once in the mouth, another in his neck — in front of his mother, his father and his siblings,” he added.
______________________________________________________________
Press review
As Safir (Lebanese daily, Arab nationalist, June 6, 2013)
Marlene Khalifé
It will not be easy for Britain and France to realize their ambitions by registering what the two countries called the “military wing” of Hezbollah on the European list of terrorist organizations. Both countries put pressure in this direction, supported by some European states, while others, such as Austria, Finland and Ireland are opposed.
The influence and the integrity of the European Court of Justice, as well as its ability to curb the political wishes of some countries have slow the British proposal. A European expert believes that the most important is to answer one question: “If Hezbollah is placed on the list of terrorist organizations, what is the charge against him? If the charge is related on the attack of Burgas, the European Union will be obliged by the European court to disclose evidence. The European decision is not only political, since it also has a legal dimension which further complications.
What about the involvement of Hezbollah fighting in Syria? Is it not a proof that can be invoked to justify the inclusion of the party on this list? The expert said that “participation in combat is not a terrorist act. A war is going on in Syria and several parties, including Hezbollah are participating. Therefore, this matter cannot be evidence of the terrorist nature of the party. “
The European expert said that the only possible explanation for the change the French attitude is the participation of Hezbollah in Qoussair fighting. “This motif is facing an obstacle: “Hezbollah is fighting Front al-Nosra, classified as a terrorist organization. How could we the tax Hezbollah of terrorism when it is facing a recognized terrorist organization. “The same expert adds the jest:” The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, belong it to the political class or the military wing “of Hezbollah?
An Nahar (Lebanese Daily close to 14-Mars coalition)
Pierre Atallah (June 5, 2013)
The visit to France of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch and All the East, Yuhanna Yazigi, hasn’t led to any concrete results concerning the fate of two bishops Boulos Yazigi and Yuhanna Ibrahim, abducted in Syria. Many conflicting reports about the fate of the two prelates circulates in Lebanon. A delegation of residents of the Syrian city of Aleppo visited the Embassy of France, as Paris is the leading country in supporting the opposition Syrian. The Ambassador promised to send the information to Paris.
Al Akhbar (Lebanese Daily close to the Lebanese Resistance, June 7, 2013)
Zainab Hawi
Many Arab satellite channels are in denial over news of a Syrian army victory in Qusayr. For the past several weeks, Qusayr had been a top news item on the major channels, as networks hosted military experts to shed light on the battles between the Syrian regime and its opposition. Yet once images confirming an opposition defeat began to surface, the channels adopted a unilateral discourse of sectarian incitement.
The networks launched a campaign to justify the fighters’ withdrawal from the city, framing it in terms of asymmetrical military power.
One day before the Syrian army regained control of Qusayr, George Sabra, the acting president of the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), issued an appeal to Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri to open “safe corridors in order to evacuate the wounded inside Qusayr.” Sabra warned of a massacre if this did not happen.
On satellite channels, Sabra’s appeal transformed into propaganda used to downplay this strategic military achievement.
Stations like al-Jazeera, al-Arabiya, and Future TV claimed the regime and Hezbollah had committed a massacre that killed hundreds. Future TV went even further, claiming that the battle was still raging.
Free Syrian Army (FSA) spokesperson Fahd al-Masry – who couldn’t confirm to al-Jadeed whether he was in Paris or somewhere along the Lebanese-Syrian border – made several appearances on local and satellite channels. He denied that the Syrian army regained control of Qusayr and claimed that the live images were either fabricated or pulled from the archives. Luay al-Miqdad, FSA media and political coordinator, promised al-Arabiya’s viewers “surprises at night.” Miqdad downplayed the progress made by the Syrian army, arguing that it only advanced in certain areas.
Hezbollah’s satellite channel al-Manar was among the first stations to air images from inside Qusayr, along with al-Mayadeen reporters.
Al Akhbar (June 6, 2013)
Radwan Mortada
With surprising speed, Syrian government forces overran the last opposition positions in northern Qusayr on Wednesday morning. Al-Akhbar reveals the unofficial story behind this strategic battle.
The last night in Qusayr was unlike any other the armed groups experienced in the embattled Syrian city, which has pitted regime forces supported by Hezbollah against thousands of dug-in opposition fighters.
During the day, the talk among the mainly Islamist and Salafi groups, who had turned Qusayr into a military base for the opposition, was of heroic steadfastness in the face of the invading army.
But by nightfall, all signs of activity in the remaining opposition pockets in the northern part of the city had ceased. There are rumors that under pressure, many betrayed their comrades and surrendered or fled, leaving them to fight a losing battle.
This was not however the picture in the early days of the fighting that took place around Qusayr. Opposition fighters’ morale was at its peak after hearing news that their comrades managed to ambush and kill 24 Hezbollah fighters on the very first day of clashes. In fact, in the first two days of fighting the Lebanese party paid a heavy price in terms of dead and injured.
While some opposition sources say that they managed to lure Hezbollah into a trap, thus inflicting such a high number of casualties, others attribute it to an underestimation of the fighters in the city and a hurried advance on the part of the regime and Hezbollah.
The latter group suggests that the regime’s initial plan to take Qusayr involved a quick attack from three directions, which it calculated would take the fighters by surprise and cause disarray in their ranks.
The armed groups, however, surprised Hezbollah with their fighting capabilities, showing a high level of skill and experience that many of them had gained in other jihad-related conflicts.
This forced the regime to reconsider its plan of attack, instead taking a slower approach that involved softening enemy positions with artillery and air strikes before sending in ground forces. The Syrian army also decided to take more time to surround the city from all directions in order to cut off any support from reaching the fighters.
As for the ambush version of the story, opposition sources claim that they set a trap for Hezbollah by luring them into the city on the basis that the armed groups were prepared to surrender, only to unleash a deadly surprise attack on the unsuspecting Lebanese fighters.
Opposition sources put it differently. They say they were engaged in negotiations with Hezbollah as the siege tightened around Qusayr to facilitate the exit of the remaining civilians in the city. They told the Lebanese party that they were prepared to surrender, but could not do so without a few face-saving, symbolic skirmishes.
As the first clashes progressed, it appeared as if the armed groups were abiding by the agreement, gradually withdrawing from some of their positions. But, having lured the Hezbollah fighters deep into their territory, the opposition fighters ambushed them, killing two dozen and injuring many more.
The fighting continued for another 16 days and the tables were slowly turned against the Qusayr fighters. After the fall of the city into government hands, the opposition admitted defeat and published the names of 431 fighters they said died in the battle.
More reliable opposition sources, however, put the number at over 1,200 dead and 1,000 injured. Al-Akhbar also learned that Hezbollah and government forces managed to capture around 1,000 fighters, including a number of female Chechen snipers and an Australian national, among others. As for Hezbollah, estimates are that it lost 93 fighters, with dozens more injured.
Ria Novosti (Russian press Agency , June 8, 2013)
A senior Russian foreign ministry official has responded to the United Nations’ decision not to accept Russian peacekeepers in the Golan Heights by reiterating that Russian troops can replace Austrian forces when they withdraw.
“If the UN really is concerned by tensions in the Golan Heights, then sending a Russian contingent in is the solution,” Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov posted on his Twitter account on Saturday afternoon.
On Friday Russia offered to send its peacekeepers to the Golan Heights as part of a UN monitoring mission after Austria said it would withdraw its forces, citing an “unacceptable level of danger to its personnel.”
The UN News Center on Friday reported that two peacekeepers had been injured the previous day during “intense fighting in the area of separation monitored by the UN Disengagement Observer Force.”
It added that this area “has come under increasing threat and attacks in recent months as fighting between Syrian forces and anti-government groups continues unabated.”
The UN on Friday said that, although it welcomed Russia’s proposal, the peacekeeping agreements prevent it from accepting Russian troops, as permanent Security Council members are barred from taking part in the UN Disengagement Observer Force.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister responded to this by tweeting “And there’s no need to refer to 40-year-old limitations. The task of supporting peace and stability requires a different kind of political thinking.”
“This is a matter for the UN Security Council,” Gatilov added, in a third tweet on the issue.
On another hand, a Russian state television crew has come under fire from a Syrian rebel group at the Golan Heights in the Israel-Syria border, the Rossia 24 reported.
Obama was apparently serious earlier about a negotiated diplomatic settlement pre-Qusayr and there were even some positives signs coming from Damascus, Moscow, and even Tehran John Kerry claimed. But that has changed partly because Russia and the US have both hardened their demands. Consequently, the Obama administration has now essentially thrown in the towel on the diplomatic track. This observer was advised by more than one Congressional staffer that Obama’s team has concluded that the Assad government was not getting their message or taking them seriously and that Assad’s recent military gains and rising popular support meant that a serious Geneva II initiative was not going to happen.
In addition, Obama has been weakened recently by domestic politics and a number of distractions and potential scandals not least of which is the disclosures regarding the massive NSA privacy invasion. In addition, the war lobby led by Senators McClain and Lindsay Graham is still pounding their drums and claim that Obama would be in violation of his oath of office and by jeopardizing the national security interest of the United States by allowing Iran to essentially own Syria once Assad quells the uprising.”
Shortly after the meetings began, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia quickly returned to Saudi Arabia from his palace at Casa Blanca, Morocco after receiving a call from his intelligence chief, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan. Bander reportedly had a representative at the White House during the meetings with President Obama’s team. King Abdullah was reportedly advised by Kerry to be prepared for a rapid expansion of the growing regional conflict.
What happens between now and the end of summer is likely to be catastrophic for the Syrian public and perhaps Lebanon. The “chemical weapons-red line” is not taken seriously on Capitol Hill for the reason that the same “inclusive evidence” of months ago is the same that is suddenly being cited to justify what may become essentially an all-out war against the Syrian government and anyone who gets in the way. Hand wringing over the loss of 125 lives due to chemical weapons, whoever did use them, pales in comparison to the more 50,000 additional lives that will be lost in the coming months, a figure that Pentagon planners and the White House have “budgeted” as the price of toppling the Assad government.
ecisions is defending Lebanon, its land and its state.
Syria on Friday slammed Washington's claims that it had used chemical weapons in its fight against militant opposition groups, accusing the United States of "lies" based on "fabricated information".
