Uprooted Palestinians are at the heart of the conflict in the M.E Palestinians uprooted by force of arms. Yet faced immense difficulties have survived, kept alive their history and culture, passed keys of family homes in occupied Palestine from one generation to the next.
For NATO, dismembering a country [Syria] is a second-best war aim, after the failure of complete ‘regime change’.
Idlib; where NATO-embedded media is exposed
The NATO-embedded media often speaks as though the HTS/Nusra/al-Qaeda held enclave in two-thirds of Idlib Province represents Syria and is a haven of ‘moderate rebels’. They also claim the enclave holds 4 million people, while the Syrian government says 1.3 million.
War propaganda themes have become dutifully reported ‘facts’: this is a ‘Syrian Civil War’ (even as Syria is occupied by NATO’s two largest armies plus Israel, plus thousands of foreign terrorists), the Syrian Government has repeatedly used ‘chemical weapons’ (i.e. WMDs, meriting NATO retaliation) and (for some unexplained reason: pure evil?) bombs its own schools and hospitals.
But there is another Idlib: that part liberated, at great cost, by Syria’s national army.
From August 2019 through to early 2020, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) liberated the south-eastern third of Idlib province, including the towns of Khan Shaykhoun, Maarat al-Numan, and Saraqeb. That opened the M5 highway for all traffic from the south to Aleppo, through Hama and SE Idlib.
The SAA looked for further advances, but the NATO powers demanded an end to Syrian operations, in defense of the al-Qaeda enclave. That real threat of intervention led Russia to engage in further talks with Turkey and to stall further advances.
Yet this development demonstrated that Syria, with its allies, could have freed the country from all terrorism were it not for repeated interventions from the NATO-led war coalition, which prefers to dismember and maintain occupied enclaves: NW Idlib, the NE ‘autonomous’ zone, the US occupied al Tanf zone and the Israeli occupied Golan.
In November 2021, I visited Syrian Idlib, authorized by the Syrian Army, just as most western journalists are authorized by US troops when they enter its various war zones. In one day, we traveled to Khan Sheykhoun in the south through Maarat al-Numan, the second-largest provincial city, to the strategic crossroads town of Saraqeb.
Khan Sheykhoun is the only Idlib town I saw with a significant civilian population. Mayor Mohammad Iskandar told us that 600 to 700 families have returned, about 10% of the pre-war population. Now far from the frontline, the town is peaceful with some rebuilding and small markets.
Most of those displaced moved to Turkey or north Idlib and some to other parts of Syria. The mayor is in touch with many and says most want to return, but the armed groups (HTS/Nusra) demand large sums of money for them to leave.
We also spoke with Mr. Iyad Sukheta, who runs a small grocery store, a small farm, and used to drive a bus. Like the Mayor, Iyad has also remained in Khan Sheykhoun throughout the conflict.
He says the ‘musalaheen’ (armed groups) took many prisoners and killed many local people, including his 17-year-old son. They wanted him to use his bus to drive people north, but he refused.
Asked about the chemical weapons incident of April 2017, Iyad said that the prisoners were not sacrificed (as they had been in East Ghouta in 2013) but rather, after a Syrian airstrike, the armed groups attacked the local people directly with chemicals. Many were killed.
Back in 2017, the armed groups blamed the SAA, using their own false flag massacre to incite President Trump (who had campaigned against the war) to make his first missile strike on Syria.
Maarat al-Numan is a much bigger town, with an ancient history and sitting on the frontline between Syrian forces and the Turkish-backed Nusra/HTS gangs. Even though the SAA has pushed its effective frontline forward three times in the past two years, there are no civilians here. The frontline, about 4km north, is constantly tested by the armed groups.
I visited Maarat’s museum with its famous Roman and Byzantine mosaics, which have been protected for several years with sandbags. As with many mosques, schools, and hospitals throughout Syria, the HTS/Nusra terrorists had used it as a military headquarters, digging tunnels under the Museum.
Jabal Zeitoun (Olive Mountain) is now at the center of the frontline, as it occupies the high ground from which the SAA’s 9th Division has placed a substantial vanguard of soldiers, tanks, arms, and surveillance equipment. Yet the actual Maarat frontline extends over many kilometers.
Nusra/HTS had built barricades around the town’s hospital and placed a small mosque inside. We saw evidence of supplies (medicines and cars) from Qatar, Germany, Sweden, and France. The typical pattern of the armed groups’ takeover of Syrian hospitals (for example in Aleppo) has been that they first rob all existing supplies.
Despite nominal support at the UN for the ‘territorial integrity’ of Syria, the NATO states had backed a breakaway Idlib enclave called ‘North Syria’. In much the same way, and contrary to international law, they still support an ‘Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria’. Dismembering a country is a second-best war aim, after the failure of complete ‘regime change’.
Further on up the road, the crossroads town of Saraqeb is also at the frontline, with Nusra/HTS making daily small arms attacks on, and occasional shelling of, SAA positions. They hide behind, and sometimes in front of, the many Turkish bases which are all across northern and central Idlib. The aim of these attacks, according to General J, has been to provoke retaliation which might spark direct conflict between Syrian and Turkish forces.
Captain Y took us to the frontline, looking out on the road to Ariha, and with a Turkish base 1.7 kilometers ahead. They know these distances quite precisely and are ready to liberate their country from foreign occupation and NATO-backed terrorism when the time is right.
Syria could have eliminated terrorism and restored its territorial integrity long ago, were it not for the NATO-led war coalition which prefers to fragment and occupy segments of the country, all along its land borders. In this way, they provide safe haven for internationally-proscribed terrorist groups.
The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.
بخلاف ما يظنه الكثيرون الذين لا تبهرهم إلا الدول التي تملك أموالا طائلة، يحتل الأردن موقعاً مؤثراً في خريطة الجغرافيا السياسية والاقتصادية والأمنية للمنطقة، فقد قام مشروع الحرب على سورية على ركيزتين في الجغرافيا هما تركيا والأردن، وعندما خرج الأردن من الحرب اختل التوازن وبدأ أفول الحرب، أما مشروع التطبيع فيعتمد على الأردن كبيضة قبان، فالأردن هو المعبر الجغرافي للتطبيع الاقتصادي بين الخليج وكيان الاحتلال، حيث لا معنى للتطبيع الا باكتمال خطة نقل النفط الخليجي عبر الأردن .إلى ساحل المتوسط في فلسطين المحتلة، وتأمين خطوط نقل السلع التجارية .إلى الخليج من مرافئ فلسطين المحتلة على المتوسط، ولا يستقيم التطبيع إلا بتفكيك المشرق أو بلاد الشام، ولذلك كان الأردن ركيزة ما سمي بمشروع الشام الجديد الذي يضم العراق ومصر ويتوسطه الأردن، لتأمين بيع الغاز والكهرباء من مصر إلى العراق، فتنتعش مصر ويفصل العراق عن إيران.
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قدرة الأردن على تحمل تبعات التطبيع شعبياً وسياسياً هي ما يخضع لمقياس الضغط بصورة مستدامة لمعرفة درجة الأمان في السير بالخطوات المكلفة للاستثمار في خطط التطبيع الطويلة المدى، كأنابيب نقل النفط وخطوط تجارة الترانزيت، لذلك كانت الخطة الأولى هي تأمين عائدات للمواطن الأردني من مشروع التطبيع لضمان اشتراكه بالاستفادة، وفقاً لما يسمى برشوة الشعوب لإشراكها بالخيانة أو الاستعمار، وهذه هي وظيفة المشروع الممول تحت عنوان التطبيع لبناء مزارع توليد الطاقة الجديدة النظيفة من الشمس، في الصحراء الأردنية وبيعها لكيان الاحتلال، مقابل شراء كميات من المياه المحلاة التي تنفذها مشاريع يمولها ذات البرنامج ضمن إطار التشجيع على التطبيع، ولم يكن أحد من القيمين على المشروع ليضع في حسابه أن يتعرض البرنامج لحملة احتجاج شعبية تعادل الانتفاضة تجعله موضع إعادة نظر، في ضوء خروج الآلاف من الأردنيين في تظاهرات رفض التطبيع، ما تؤشر عليه نحو المستقبل.
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عندما يخرج الأردنيون رفضاً لمشاريع التطبيع المصممة لكسب ودهم ورضاهم، بالتالي صمتهم على ما سيليها، وما يطلب إليهم حراسته وتوفير أمنه من مشاريع عملاقة لاحقة، فهذا يعني نسف فرص قيام هذه المشاريع، التي لا يمكن حمايتها إلا بالاستقرار، فمسار مئات الكيلومترات لأنابيب النفط وقوافل التجارة وباصات السياح، لا يمكن حمايته بنشر مئات آلاف الجنود على المسار، بل بخلق بيئة متصالحة مع المشاريع توفير الاستقرار السياسي والأمني، وهذا ما فشل بالأمس فشلاً ذريعاً، وما ليس بالإمكان تجاهل فشله وتجاوزه والسير بالمشاريع التي يصبح التطبيع من دونها أقل قيمة ومردود، وتموت تطلعات أصحابه للشراكات الاستراتيجية المربحة، وهذا يعني بالتوازي صرف النظر عن مشاريع ضمان أمن التطبيع عبر صيغة الشام الجديد، التي تضم الأردن والعراق ومصر.
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النهوض الشعبي الأردني بوجه التطبيع ليس غريباً على الأردن، بقياس المواجهات التي خاضها الأردنيون مراراً بوجه حلقات متعددة منذ اتفاق وادي عربة، وكانت الدعوة لإقفال سفارة كيان الاحتلال أحد تجلياتها، ورفض اتفاق الغاز بين كيان الاحتلال والأردن احد محطاتها، لكن منذ معركة سيف القدس ينمو في الأردن مناخ مشابه للمناخ الفلسطيني، حيث تتصاعد الآمال بخط المقاومة وقدرته على تحقيق المزيد من الإنجازات، وبسبب التداخل التاريخي بين الفلسطينيين والأردنيين نسبة الفلسطينيين المقيمين في الأردن وحاملي الجنسية الأردنية بينهم يصعب الفصل بين الخيارات الأردنية الشعبية ونهوض القضية الفلسطينية، ويبدو أن مسار التطبيع الذي بني على فرضية ضمان التموضع في الأردن كبيضة قبان ضامنة للنجاح سيجد مقبرته في الأردن.
هذه الأعداد الكبيرة في وسط البلد بالإضافة إلى مثيلاتها في مختلف المحافظات تتحدث بوضوح عن انفصال صانع القرار عن الإرادة الشعبية.وتقول أيضاًأن التخويف بالاعتقالات لم يجد مع الشعب الأردني ولن يجدي.فرفض التطبيع والعداء للكيان الصهيوني هو أصيل فينا والمطبعون هم الطارئون #التطبيع_خيانةpic.twitter.com/K0zVWcOxXJ
After a long decade of an imposed, cruel and bloody winter, the political recovery of the Arab block as an international actor is taking shape precisely around Bilad al-Sham.
Bilad al-Sham is much more than a mere geographic reference, as western outsiders seem to believe every time they equal what is an ancient rich and comprehensive social, cultural, and political reality with that of the Levant. The latter is indeed a purely physical tag. This misunderstanding is at the core of those western catastrophic cyclic policies towards Bilad al-Sham and beyond. It’s also the cause of the systematic failure of their interventionist schemes in what by far transcends a landscape.
Since the time of the crusaders, one after the other, all and each of western attempts to divide and conquer has ended up with the invaders expelled, puzzled and for a long time searching for the causes of their recurrent defeats. An example of this is what happened during the 20th century’s first half, when the French and British plot to dismember Bilad al-Sham according to the Sykes-Picot secret terms ended up shamefully on April 17th, 1946. On that date, the last of the defeated French soldiers evacuated off the core of Bilad al-Sham, nowadays the Syrian Arab Republic. In parallel, the other member of the aspiring terminator duo struggled to impose to the region a Zionist entity that 73 years later is still psychologically insecure and desperately trying to make true the impossible dream of its British putative father. Palestine, the Syrian Golan, and Lebanon are the mirror that every single day reflects a fiasco that cannot be overcome through a wishful thinking so-called “normalization”.
More recently, the war imposed on Syria with the declared aim to quarter it into confessional and ethnic cantons, or mini-states depending on outside powers, has failed once again. Now as then the reason is the same. Bilad al-Sham’s main strength is the will of its diverse people to live together, regardless of their ethnic and religious different affiliations. In short, they just keep adhering to what has been there the natural state of things for several millennia, a social way of life which defines a culture. In case of necessity, such a rich legacy gives a formidable impulse to resistance and becomes an unbeatable defense shield vis-à-vis any invader.
Ten years after the beginning of the conspiracy against the Syrian Arab Republic, and by extension against the whole Bilad al-Sham, this solid ancient reality that westerners don’t identify because they simply don’t understand it, is showing all its economic and political possibilities, not to mention its social and cultural ones. Umm Kulthum, Fairouz, Sabah Fakhri, Nizar Qabbani, Mahmoud Darwish, George Wassouf, or Edward Said –just to remind some- are the cultural voices that trespass the imposed borders to Bilad al-Sham, exposing in every concert, book, reading, or listening session the futility of the dismembering endeavor.
The energy crisis imposed on several Middle Eastern countries is being solved in a natural – let’s say Shami, successful way that challenges those borders imposed one century ago by the infamous Sykes-Picot treaty. Lebanon is already receiving Iranian petrol transported through the Syrian Sea to the Syrian Arab Republic port of Banias and from there to Lebanon. The latter will also increase very soon its gas and electricity supplies thanks to the agreement that will facilitate Lebanon to receive from the Egyptian Sinai gas or gas transformed into electricity through Jordan and Syria. All the countries involved have in one way or the other been historically core components of Bilad al-Sham.
After a long decade of an imposed, cruel and bloody winter, the political recovery of the Arab block as an international actor is taking shape precisely around Bilad al-Sham. Trust and bonds among Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon have resettled. Some non-Bilad al-Sham countries have understood it and are rushing to reconcile with Syria. The UAE’s constructive policy shows that Abu Dhabi understood that any Arab attempt to counterbalance the western diktat to the Arab region and especially the pernicious Turkish aggressive policies must be built around Bilad al-Sham in both, geographically and cultural terms. From the Gulf, however, others insist to establish a new Arabness based on the radical interpretation of a religion that they believe is the only one possible. One spiritual current among many others that they feverishly pretend has to shape everything, from the government to the rule of law and even personal behavior. An extremist and short-minded ideology exported to the rest of the world from the desert south of Jordan and from the lands north of the Taurus Mountains.
Michel Aflaq and Salah Bitar’s Pan-Arabism is linked to a collective Arab identity developed around political struggles for independence and the use of Arabic as a language of understanding. As a means of communication, Arabic was embraced long before by the people of Bilad al-Sham, a useful and valuable tool to express its culture, thoughts, and social unity. In that sense, the UAE is siding with those like Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, or Algeria. The latter has always realized that the political unity of Arab states is based on a common language and a pragmatic approach to counterbalance an unfair world order. That unity can only be possible if social and cultural differences are respected. Above all, the Emiratis have understood that without Bilad al-Sham other schemes of convergence are simply not possible. That’s the meaning and validity of Bilad al-Sham. No more, no less.
The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.
Expert toxicologists concluded that chlorine gas was not what killed victims in the Douma attack, adding that OPCW officials censored explosive findings.
The Grayzone: the suppression of the toxicologists is among a series of deceptions by the OPCW
The Grayzone website published revealing a series of “leaks [that] expose how senior Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) officials censored this explosive finding” in the Syrian city of Douma.
In its investigation, the website stated that “in the early days of the OPCW’s investigation of an alleged chemical attack in Douma, Syria, expert toxicologists ruled out chlorine gas as the cause of death for more than 40 civilians reported at the scene.”
The investigation confirmed that “instead of publishing this finding, senior OPCW officials concealed it, and then launched an investigation of a veteran inspector who questioned the censorship.”
It added that “the suppression of the toxicologists is among a series of deceptions by the OPCW leadership to corrupt the Douma probe’s scientific process, as detailed in this new multi-part investigation by The Grayzone.”
According to the investigation, this report was concealed, undermining the attack as a public pretext for US-led airstrikes on Syria two months prior, and raising the possibility that the rebels launched the April 7, 2018 incident to frame the Syrian government.
It also revealed that during the mission of an OPCW team to meet with several toxicologists in Germany, the rapid onset of heavy foam shown in the videos, documenting what happened in Douma, was not compatible with the accusation of exposure to toxic chlorine.
The Grayzone: Expert toxicologists ruled out chlorine gas as the victims’ cause of death.
The investigation added that the OPCW did not publish the findings in Germany but instead left the investigation open to many possibilities, and therefore did not allow for the completion of the investigation.
“I imagine you have similar concerns about how such pivotal information could have been omitted from the report – possibly biasing the outcome,” Whelan wrote his colleagues. He asked them to join him in raising this with the OPCW chief. Instead, the OPCW investigated him.
The Grayzone also accused the organization’s director-general, Fernando Arias, of suppressing the toxicologists’ critical findings: When Arias was asked about excluding the findings of the toxicologists from the final report, before the European Parliament, he made false excuses as to why he refused to address the alleged scientific fraud in the Douma investigation.
Opinion polls rule out that Erdogan will win the upcoming elections, which leads him to more tension and hostility towards opposition parties.
The following is the English translation from Arabic of the latest article by Turkish career journalistHusni Mahali he published in the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen news site Al-Mayadeen Net:
The Turkish political and media scene is witnessing an exciting debate after some media professionals loyal to Erdogan spoke about the possibility of banning the CHP’s activity, prosecuting its leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and some of the party’s leaders, and placing them in prisons.
This media talk was accompanied by a very violent attack by the Turkish president on the leader of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, and his ally in the ‘Nation’s Alliance,’ the leader of the Good Party, Maral Aksanar. Erdogan does not miss any occasion, whether internal or external, without attacking Kılıçdaroğlu and Aksanar, with the most violent words, descriptions, and phrases, including those targeting their dignity and honor.
In all of his speeches, Erdogan accuses Kılıçdaroğlu (Kilitchdar-oglu) and Aksanar of allying with the Peoples’ Democratic Party, the political wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, in an attempt to win the sympathy, solidarity, and support of the popular street, arguing that “Kurdistan Party” is a terrorist organization and the enemy of the Turkish nation and state. This has failed, at least so far, as all independent opinion polls have proven the decline in the popularity of the Justice and Development Party (Erdogan’s AKP) and its ally the National Movement, in return for a noticeable increase in the popularity of the Good Party and the Republican People’s Party and the Democratic People’s Party.
All polls also ruled out a victory for President Erdogan in the upcoming elections and expected his rivals, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, to receive at least 58% of the vote compared to Erdogan’s 40-42%.
Such possibilities push Erdogan to increase tension and hostility towards opposition parties and all opponents, with all their political and social affiliations and alignments, and they are all subjected to a very violent attack by Erdogan and his ally, the leader of the nationalist movement Devlet Bakhchali and the media loyal to them together. The media attack acquires a frenzied character without limits, as long as the judiciary does not move a finger against these, and unlike everyone who utters even one word against Erdogan, the judiciary is prosecuting him for insulting the President of the Republic.
The judiciary is also prosecuting Erdogan’s opponents, including journalists, academics, intellectuals, artists, and others, and without this attack being sufficient for Erdogan and his media to limit the activity of the opposition parties and their forces, which are taking advantage of Erdogan’s failure in the foreign and domestic policies, the most important of them is the serious economic and financial crisis that the opposition leaders expect to bring the country to the brink of complete bankruptcy with the continued depreciation of the Turkish lira by at least 15% in just one month, which was reflected very dangerously on the high prices of all services and basic materials and the cost of living, then unemployment, poverty, and hunger which have become a daily phenomenon.
The opposition expects Erdogan and his government to impose a new series of taxes to cover the budget deficit, which will burden the citizen who will take revenge on Erdogan in the first upcoming elections. Such a possibility prompts Erdogan to seek “hellish” plans, as characterized by the opposition, to ensure that he remains in power, no matter what it costs him. Within these endeavors, Erdogan seeks and will seek to divide the ranks of the nation’s coalition parties, which includes the Republican People’s Party – CHP (28%) and the Good Party (14%), and indirectly the HDP – People’s Democratic Party (10%).
The polls expect Ali Babacan’s Progress and Democracy Party (3%) and Davutoğlu’s Future Party (2%), along with the Democratic and Happiness Party, to agree with the Nation’s Alliance against the Public Alliance, which includes the Justice and Development Party – AKP (30%) and the National Movement (8%), in addition to the Great Unity Party.
The opposition also expects Erdogan to impose strict control over the media and social media networks, while working to change the election law at the last moment, with the possibility of postponing or canceling the elections with security justifications, both internal and external, which is Erdogan’s prerogative according to the constitution. The opposition also talks about the possibility of electoral fraud, as was the case in the April 16, 2017 referendum. On the basis of this referendum, Erdogan changed the political system to become a presidential one, taking control of all state agencies, facilities, and institutions, and becoming the absolute ruler of the country. The leader of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, accused the Supreme Electoral Commission, at the time, of falsifying the results by agreeing, after the polls were closed, to adopt the more than two million unsealed ballot papers.
Talking about the possibility of banning the activity of the Republican People’s Party and prosecuting its leaders remains the most dangerous scenario for Turkey’s future, because Ataturk was the one who founded this party that ruled the country alone until the end of World War II. This concern may not be enough to deter Erdogan from thinking in this way, after he put the two co-leaders of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, Selahattin Demirtaş and Vikan Yoksakdag, and a number of party leaders in prison, five years ago, and joined them with about forty of the mayors elected in 2019, which was not enough for the party’s supporters and followers to take to the streets, because they know that the authorities will not spare them, even though 5.86 million voted for the party in the June 2018 elections.
In all cases, and with the exclusion of any possibility of holding early elections in light of the difficult internal and external conditions that the country is going through, everyone knows that Erdogan does not and will not, in any way, accept defeat and hand over power to his enemies. He knows that they will pursue him on many charges, the most important of which is serious corruption and his involvement in foreign files, the most important of which is his relations with armed groups in Syria and Libya.
Washington’s position is not clear, at least until now, on the overall developments inside Turkey, recalling that President Biden had spoken at the end of 2019 “about the need to get rid of Erdogan democratically”, after describing him as “authoritarian.”
The media presents many future scenarios, not only regarding Washington’s possible position, but also the position of Western capitals, and even Moscow, all of which are said to turn a blind eye to Erdogan’s staying in power, whatever his negatives, as long as it benefits directly or indirectly of him. Defenders of this view say that the mentioned capitals are more likely to deal with the absolute ruler Erdogan instead of a new president or a new coalition government with several contradictory parties, and their agreement even on crucial issues will never be easy.
Some see in such a scenario a sufficient reason for Erdogan to continue his current policies internally and externally, as long as the aforementioned capitals content themselves with denunciation and condemnation, without taking any practical action against Ankara.
Everyone knows that Erdogan plans to stay in power, drawing lessons from the experiences of regimes in Arab and Islamic countries, and whether they remain in power or fall from it was in most cases subject to American indication.
This is the case for Adnan Menderes, who made Turkey (1950-1960) an “American state.” The military overthrew him and executed him, while Washington did nothing, which it did with the Shah of Iran, Hosni Mubarak, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and others in other countries in which America has accounts and accounts!
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استطلاعات الرأي تستبعد أن يفوز إردوغان في الانتخابات المقبلة ما يدفعه إلى مزيد من التوتر والعداء تجاه أحزاب المعارضة.
يبقى الحديث عن احتمالات حظر نشاط حزب الشعب الجمهوري وملاحقة قياداته قضائياً السيناريو الأخطر بالنسبة إلى مستقبل تركيا.
تشهد الساحة السياسية والإعلامية التركية نقاشاً مثيراً بعد أن تحدث البعض من الإعلاميين الموالين لإردوغان عن احتمالات حظر نشاط حزب الشعب الجمهوري، وملاحقة زعيمه كمال كليجدار أوغلو والبعض من قيادات الحزب قضائياً، ووضعهم في السجون.
حديث الإعلاميين هذا رافقه هجوم عنيف جداً من الرئيس التركي على زعيم حزب الشعب الجمهوري كمال كليجدار أوغلو وحليفته في تحالف الأمة، زعيمة الحزب الجيد مارال أكشانار. فلا يفوّت إردوغان أي مناسبة، داخلية كانت أو خارجية، من دون أن يهاجم كليجدار أوغلو وأكشانار، وبأعنف الكلمات والأوصاف والألفاظ والعبارات، بما فيها تلك التي تستهدف كرامتيهما وشرفيهما.
ويتهم إردوغان في كل أحاديثه كليجدار أوغلو وأكشانار بالتحالف مع حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي، الجناح السياسي لحزب العمال الكردستاني، في محاولة منه لكسب تعاطف الشارع الشعبي وتضامنه ودعمه، بحجة أن” الكردستاني” تنظيم إرهابي وعدو الأمة والدولة التركيّتين. هذا الأمر فشل فيه، على الأقل حتى الآن، حيث أثبتت جميع استطلاعات الرأي المستقلة تراجع شعبية حزب العدالة والتنمية وحليفه الحركة القومية، مقابل زيادة ملحوظة في شعبية الحزب الجيد وحزبي الشعب الجمهوري والشعوب الديمقراطي.
واستبعدت كل الاستطلاعات أيضاً الفوز للرئيس إردوغان في الانتخابات المقبلة، وتوقعت لمنافسيه، ومنهم رئيس بلدية إسطنبول أكرم إمام أوغلو، ورئيس بلدية أنقرة منصور ياواش، أن يحصلوا على ما لا يقل عن 58٪ من الأصوات مقابل 40-42٪ لإردوغان.
وتدفع مثل هذه الاحتمالات إردوغان إلى مزيد من التوتر والعداء تجاه أحزاب المعارضة وكل المعارضين، بميولهم وانتماءاتهم السياسية والاجتماعية كافة، ويتعرّضون جميعاً لهجوم عنيف جداً من إردوغان وحليفه زعيم الحركة القومية دولت باخشالي والإعلام الموالي لهما معاً. ويكتسب الهجوم الإعلامي طابعاً مسعوراً من دون حدود، ما دام القضاء لا يحرك ساكناً ضد هؤلاء، وخلافاً لكل من يتفوّه ولو بكلمة واحدة ضد إردوغان، حيث يلاحقه القضاء بتهمة الإساءة إلى رئيس الجمهورية، كما يلاحق القضاء معارضي إردوغان من الصحافيين والأكاديميين والمثقفين والفنانين وغيرهم، ومن دون أن يكون هذا الهجوم كافياً بالنسبة إلى إردوغان وإعلامه للحدّ من نشاطِ أحزاب المعارضة وقواها، والتي تستغل فشل إردوغان في السياستين الخارجية والداخلية، وأهمهما الأزمة الاقتصادية والمالية الخطيرة التي تتوقع لها قيادات المعارضة أن توصل البلاد الى حافة الإفلاس التام مع استمرار تراجع قيمة الليرة التركية بما لا يقل عن 15٪ خلال شهر واحد فقط، وهو ما انعكس بشكلٍ خطير جداً على ارتفاع أسعار كل الخدمات والمواد الأساسية وغلاء المعيشة ثم البطالة والفقر والجوع الذي تحول الى ظاهرة يومية.
وتتوقع المعارضة لإردوغان وحكومته أن يفرضا سلسلة جديدة من الضرائب لتغطية العجز في الموازنة، وهو ما سيثقل كاهل المواطن الذي سينتقم من إردوغان في أول انتخابات مقبلة. ويدفع مثل هذا الاحتمال إردوغان إلى السعي من أجل خطط “جهنمية”، بتوصيف المعارضة، لضمان بقائه في السلطة، ومهما كلفه ذلك. وضمن هذه المساعي، يسعى وسيسعى إردوغان لشق وحدة الصف بين أطراف تحالف الأمة الذي يضم حزب الشعب الجمهوري (28٪) والحزب الجيد (14٪)، وبشكل غير مباشر حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي (10٪) .
وتتوقع الاستطلاعات لحزب التقدم والديمقراطية بزعامة علي باباجان (3٪) وحزب المستقبل بزعامة داود أوغلو (2٪)، ومعهما الحزب الديمقراطي والسعادة، أن تتفق مع تحالف الأمة ضد تحالف الجمهور الذي يضم حزب العدالة والتنمية (30٪) والحركة القومية (8٪) إضافة إلى حزب الوحدة الكبرى.
كما تتوقع المعارضة لإردوغان أن يفرض رقابة صارمة على الإعلام وشبكات التواصل الاجتماعي، مع العمل على تغيير قانون الانتخابات في آخر لحظة، مع احتمالات تأجيل أو إلغاء الانتخابات بمبررات أمنية، داخلية وخارجية، وهو من صلاحيات إردوغان وفق الدستور. كما تتحدث المعارضة عن احتمالات تزوير الانتخابات، كما جرى في استفتاء 16 نيسان/أبريل 2017. وقام إردوغان بناء على هذا الاستفتاء بتغيير النظام السياسي ليصبح رئاسياً، فسيطر على كل أجهزة الدولة ومرافقها ومؤسساتها، وأصبح الحاكم المطلق للبلاد. واتهم زعيم حزب الشعب الجمهوري كمال كليجدار أوغلو آنذاك الهيئة العليا للانتخابات بتزوير النتائج عبر موافقتها، بعد إغلاق صناديق الاقتراع، على اعتماد بطاقات الاقتراع غير المختومة، وعددها أكثر من مليوني بطاقة.
ويبقى الحديث عن احتمالات حظر نشاط حزب الشعب الجمهوري وملاحقة قياداته قضائياً السيناريو الأخطر بالنسبة إلى مستقبل تركيا، لأن أتاتورك هو الذي أسّس هذا الحزب الذي حكم البلاد حتى نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية بمفرده. وقد لا يكون هذا القلق كافياً لردع إردوغان عن التفكير بهذا الأسلوب، بعد أن وضع الزعيمين المشتركين لحزب الشعوب الديمقراطي صلاح الدين دميرطاش وفيكان يوكساكداغ وعدداً من قادة الحزب في السجون، قبل خمس سنوات، وضمَّ إليهم نحو أربعين من رؤساء البلديات المنتخبين عام 2019، من دون أن يكون ذلك كافياً بالنسبة إلى أنصار وأتباع الحزب للخروج الى الشوارع، لأنهم يعرفون أن السلطات لن ترحمهم، مع أن عددهم كان 5.86 ملايين صوّتوا للحزب في انتخابات حزيران/يونيو 2018.
وفي جميع الحالات، ومع استبعاد أي احتمال لإجراء الانتخابات المبكرة في ظل الظروف الداخلية والخارجية الصعبة التي تعيشها البلاد، يعرف الجميع أن إردوغان لا ولن يقبل بأي شكل من الأشكال بالهزيمة وتسليم السلطة لأعدائه. فهو يعرف أنهم سيلاحقونه بتهم كثيرة، أهمها الفساد الخطير، وتورطه في ملفات خارجية، وأهمها علاقاته مع المجموعات المسلحة في سوريا وليبيا.
ومن دون أن يكون واضحاً، على الأقل حتى الآن، موقف واشنطن من مجمل تطورات الداخل التركي، مع التذكير بأن الرئيس بايدن كان قد تحدث نهاية 2019 “عن ضرورة التخلص من إردوغان ديمقراطياً”، بعد أن وصفه “بالاستبدادي”.
ويطرح الإعلام العديد من السيناريوهات المستقبلية، ليس فقط بالنسبة إلى موقف واشنطن المحتمل، بل أيضاً موقف العواصم الغربية، وحتى موسكو، والتي يقال إنها جميعاً قد تغض النظر عن بقاء إردوغان في السلطة، ومهما كانت سلبياته، ما دامت المستفيدة منه بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر. ويقول المدافعون عن هذا الرأي إن العواصم المذكورة ترجّح التعامل مع الحاكم المطلق إردوغان بدلاً من رئيس جديد أو حكومة ائتلافية جديدة بعدة أحزاب متناقضة، واتفاقها حتى في القضايا المصيرية لن يكن سهلاً أبداً.
ويرى البعض في مثل هذا السيناريو سبباً كافياً لاستمرار إردوغان في سياساته الحاليةِ داخلياً وخارجياً، ما دامت العواصم المذكورة تكتفي بالاستنكار والتنديد، من دون أن تتَّخذَ أي إجراء عمليّ ضدّ أنقرة.
ويعرف الجميع أن إردوغان يخطط للبقاء في السلطة، مستخلصاً الدروس من تجارب الأنظمة في الدول العربية والإسلامية، وبقاؤها في الحكم أو سقوطها منه كان في معظم الحالات رهن الإشارة الأميركية.
وهذه هي الحال بالنسبة إلى عدنان مندرس الذي جعل من تركيا (1950-1960) “ولاية أميركية”، فأطاحه العسكر وأعدموه، فيما لم تحرّك واشنطن ساكناً، وهو ما فعلته مع شاه إيران وحسني مبارك وزين العابدين بن علي وآخرين في دول أخرى، ما زال لأميركا فيها حسابات وحسابات!
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