Uprooted Palestinians are at the heart of the conflict in the M.E Palestinians uprooted by force of arms. Yet faced immense difficulties have survived, kept alive their history and culture, passed keys of family homes in occupied Palestine from one generation to the next.
MIDDLE EAST 17:21 GMT 01.03.2020 (updated 17:48 GMT 01.03.2020)
On Saturday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters that he had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to “get out of Turkey’s way” and to leave Ankara “face to face” with Damascus in the renegade Syrian province of Idlib.
Russia is the only country with a legitimate, internationally recognized right to station troops in Syria, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.
“Russia is the only country which has troops in Syria on a legal basis and at the request of the legitimate Syrian government,” Peskov said, ( Pescove Forgot that Axis of resistance is there at th2 request of Syria) speaking to Russia 1’s Moscow.Kremlin.Putin programme on Sunday when asked to comment on President Erdogan’s remarks about what “business” Russia has in Syria.
“All other military forces of other countries are in Syria in contravention of the norms and principles of international law,” Peskov added.
According to the Kremlin spokesman, all of the actions by the Syrian military in Idlib in recent days have been aimed at fighting terrorists. Turkey, on the other hand, has failed to meet its obligations under the Sochi agreements, he said.
“We know that under the Sochi agreements from a year ago, it was the Turkish side which was required to ensure a regime of inactivity by these terrorist elements. Unfortunately, Turkey has not fulfilled these obligations, and the terrorists went on the offensive against Syria’s armed forces,” Peskov said.
Peskov recalled that in addition to attacking the Syrian Army, the terrorists were also attacking Russian military units in the Arab Republic. “Therefore,” he noted, “regardless of any statements, the fight against these terrorist elements will continue.”
Meeting This Week
Peskov also confirmed that Presidents Putin and Erdogan would meet on March 5 or 6 in Moscow to discuss the Syrian crisis. According to Peskov, the meeting would not be an easy one. “This will undoubtedly be a difficult meeting, but the heads of state have nevertheless affirmed their focus on resolving the situation in Idlib and their adherence to the Sochi accords. This is important,” he said.
Putin and Erdogan spoke by telephone on Friday. On Saturday, Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul that he asked Putin about Russia’s “business” in Syria, adding that while Turkey didn’t mind if Russia established a base in the country, it should “get out of our way and leave us face to face with the [Syrian] regime.”
Russia established an airbase in Latakia, northwestern Syria in 2015 on the request of Syria’s internationally recognized government to assist the country in its fight against a broad array of foreign-backed terrorists.
Russia and Turkey reached an accord in Sochi in September 2018, allowing the Turkish military to establish observation posts in Idlib on the condition that terrorist groups be separated from other armed groups and expelled from the de-escalation zone. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has recently said that Ankara has failed to do so.
Tensions in Idlib escalated in February after Syrian artillery struck a Turkish observation post, killing eight Turkish troops and injuring several others. The situation has since turned into a shooting war between Syrian troops, Turkish forces and Ankara-backed militants. On Thursday, Syrian strikes killed at least 33 Turkish troops who were mixed in among jihadist militants, sparking off a Turkish response which included attacks on dozens of Syrian government targets in ‘Operation Spring Shield’. Syria initiated its Idlib operation in December, citing repeated terrorist attacks on army positions.
DAMASCUS, (ST)- “Had it not been for the sacrifices of the Syrian Arab Army in Aleppo and Idlib, the Russian-Turkish agreement would not have been reached,” Dr. Bouthaina Shaaban, the Presidential Political and Media Advisor, stressed, pointing out that the agreement provides for combating terrorism, maintaining the liberated area and stopping bloodshed.
The Syrian army has liberated an area of more than 2000 square km from terrorism over the past weeks and it has inflicted heavy losses upon the terrorists and the Turks, she said in an interview with the Beirut-based “al-Mayadeen” TV on Wednesday.
She added that the agreement is both a political and a military battle to defeat terrorists, liberate the land and create circumstances for the return of the displaced.
She went on to say that Syria and its Russian and Iranian allies are in daily coordination, noting that the Syrian-Iranian relations are deep-rooted and they have been strengthened during the war on Syria, but there is a fifth column that doubts the intentions of Syria’s friends and allies who are assisting the Syrian Arab army in fighting terrorism.
Concerning the tension between Europe and Turkey over the refugee crisis, Shaaban said that “Erdogan has lost by blackmailing Europe . He opened Turkey’s borders with Europe to refugees despite a Turkish-European agreement.” (The agreement seeks to control the crossing of refugees and migrants from Turkey to the Greek islands). She clarified that “the European themselves stressed that most of the refugees were not Syrians.”
“I think the Europeans should know that Erdogan is not the one who has the solution for the migrants, that he is the problem. He is the one who caused all this migration from Syria. And, I would like also to put many question marks around the figures that Erdogan gives to Europe in order to get as much money as he can from European countries to help his staggering economy,” Shaaban said, referring to the funds that Ankara has asked for to allegedly support refugees in Turkey.
She stressed that the world has become aware that Erdogan’s policies pose a threat to international peace and security.
The Presidential advisor also said that the United States has created and supported al-Qaeda and ISIS and it is not strange if it supports Jabhat al-Nusra terrorist organization.
She made it clear that what Erdogan is doing serves Israel’s interests as he trades with the Palestinian cause and seeks occupying Syrian lands. She affirmed that it is not possible to hold a summit meeting between President Al-Assad and Erdogan while Turkey is occupying Syrian areas.
She made it clear that Syria welcomes inter-Arab relations, because Arab coordination is a point of strength to all the Arabs.
Shaaban asserted that the Syrian people reject occupation and have always been ready to defend their land, reiterating the Syrians’ rejection of the presence of the American occupying forces in the eastern bank of the Euphrates.
She recalled President Al-Assad’s saying that “we will liberate every inch of our land. We will liberate Idleb and eradicate terrorism from all Syria and we have the Syrian army and the Syrian leadership’s plans for achieving this goal.”
لطالما فرح الرئيس التركي رجب أردوغان وتبادل أنخاب النصر مع أركان حكمه، لدى تلقي الأنباء عن تقدّم الجماعات المسلحة في الجغرافيا السورية، سواءٌ أكانت جماعات الأخوان المسلمين أم تنظيم القاعدة أم تنظيم داعش، فما ليس صناعة تركية منها يسلّم بالمرجعية التركية، ومن لا يسلّم بهذه المرجعية له مصالح عضوية مع تركيا، ومن ليست له مصالح عضوية مع تركيا له مصالح حيويّة أو ظرفيّة تتيح لتركيا التصرف كضابط إيقاع لحرب السيطرة على سورية. فهي ليست ضابط الإيقاع الداخلي فقط، بل ضابط الإيقاع الخارجي أيضاً، حيث الدول المنخرطة في هذه الحرب من أميركا إلى دول الناتو وصولاً لـ»إسرائيل» ودول الخليج، والدول العربية التي تسلّم الأخوان الحكم فيها كمصر وتونس، ترتضي لتركيا هذا الدور، عن قناعة أو مصلحة أو تسليم بالتوازنات الدولية المحيطة بتفويض تركيا إدارة الحرب. وأردوغان الذي عاش أحلام السلطنة ورفع شعار العثمانية الجديدة، نظر منذ اليوم الأول لحرب السيطرة على سورية بصفتها حرب السلطنة والعثمانيّة الجديدة معاً، أي حربه كشخص ومعبر لمشروعه الذي باعه للأتراك واعداً إياهم باستعادة أمجاد وعظمة الماضي الاستعماري الإمبراطوري، محولا حزب الأخوان في العالم إلى مجلس قيادة لهذا المشروع، الذي نظرت إليه واشنطن بديمقراطييها وجمهورييها، كمشروع يوازي في بعده الاستراتيجي في آسيا ما مثله مشروع الاتحاد الأوروبي في أوروبا شرقها وغربها في التسعينيات، وبعدما تعثر المشروع الأصلي لفرض الهيمنة عبر حربي العراق وأفغانستان، لتكتمل بثنائية الاتحاد الأوروبي والعثمانيّة الجديدة ميمنة وميسرة زعامة القرن الحادي والعشرين في فرض الهيمنة الأميركية على العالم.
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خلال سنوات الحرب الأولى كان الكثير من محبي سورية يتساءلون عن سبب التروي الذي يطبع سياسات الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد في اللجوء إلى القوة العسكرية، ومنحه الكثير من الفرص للحلول السياسية والإصلاحات الدستورية، رغم كلامه الواضح عن حرب ومؤامرة ومحوريّة دور الجماعات الإرهابية فيما سمّي بـ “الثورة السورية”، كما كان الكثيرون يتساءلون حول ما إذا كان الانفتاح السوري على تركيا قبل الحرب كان فخاً استراتيجياً نصبه الرئيس التركي للرئيس السوري، تمهيداً للحرب المضمرة، لضرب المناعات السورية بوجه تركيا وتوفير الفرص للتغلغل في البيئات السورية المختلفة، وكان الجواب على السؤالين هو، فلننتظر النهايات وعندها يظهر الكمين الاستراتيجي ومَن وقع فيه، ويضحك كثيراً من يضحك أخيراً.
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الصمود والصبر شكّلا سمة تعامل الرئيس السوريّ وقيادته وجيشه مع الهجمات الشرسة والقاسية التي تعرّضت لها سورية خلال سنوات 2011 – 2015، والهدف أخذ يتوضح بالتدريج، وهو خلق القناعة لدى أغلبيّة كافية من الشعب السوري بأن ما يراه أمامه ليس ثورة ولا حركة إصلاحية بل مشروع إرهابي موجّه من الخارج لإسقاط سورية الوطن والدولة وليس تغيير شكل السلطة فيها، وصولاً لتفتيت سورية وتغيير موقعها وتدمير مكانتها وعمرانها وتاريخها ووحدتها، وبالتوازي خلق القناعة واليقين لدى حلفاء مستهدَفون مثل سورية عبر الحرب عليها، وفي طليعتهم قوى المقاومة وعلى رأسها حزب الله ومن خلفه إيران، بأن الحرب على سورية هي حرب “إسرائيل” تُخاض بالوكالة عبر تركيا، وهي حرب تغيير موقع سورية كعمق استراتيجيّ لحركات المقاومة، لتشكيل بيئة أخوانيّة تحيط بفلسطين تحكم مصر وسورية والأردن وتتحكم بفلسطين، تلتزم ما ظهر أنه سياسة الأخوان تجاه الاحتلال مع حكمهم لمصر، لكن الرئيس السوري وهو يخوض غمار هاتين المعركتين السياسيتين، ويمنحهما كل الاهتمام ويرصد تطوّر مواقف شرائح الشعب السوري والحلفاء في قوى المقاومة وإيران، ودرجة تطوّرها بقياس هذا التقدير لماهية الحرب ووظائفها، ويقدم في سبيل الفوز بهاتين المعركتين على المبادرة تلو الأخرى لتظهير جوهر أهداف الحرب، وعدم وجود فرص لتلافيها بتقديم الإصلاحات والمبادرات السياسية، كان أمامه سؤال استراتيجي حول نضوج روسيا لموقف يقرأ الحرب كاستهداف لأمنها، وقطعاً للطريق على دورها المتطلع للنمو، ومنعاً لها من الوصول إلى البحر المتوسط، وعزلها وراء المضائق التركيّة، ومحاصرتها بدول تحكمها العثمانية الجديدة، إذا قيّض لها الفوز بسورية؟
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في مرات كثيرة كان بعض مَن في القيادة في سورية يستغرب قبول الرئيس الأسد للاستجابة لمبادرات تطلبها موسكو، ويرون فيها تنازلات غير مبررة، سواء في السياسة تحت شعار الحلول السياسية، أو في الميدان تحت شعار وقف نار أو عفو عن مسلحين، أو هدنة يدركون أن الجماعات المسلحة ستستثمرها لترتيب أمورها والعودة للقتال من مواقع أفضل، وكانوا يكتشفون لاحقاً أن الهدف كان السير على إيقاع البطء الروسي في صياغة الاستنتاجات، وفهم سياق الأحداث، لأنه إذا كانت الحرب التي شنت للسيطرة على سورية تكاد تكون حرباً تركية، فإن النصر في هذه الحرب سيتقرّر بالجواب على السؤال “أين تقف روسيا منها؟”. وبمثل ما كان الرئيس الأسد يدرك أن شل التفكير الأميركي بالتورط بالحرب سيتكفل به حضور وجهوزية سورية وقوى المقاومة وإيران لجعل كل مواجهة مع أميركا تهديداً لأمن “إسرائيل” ووجودها، كان واضحاً لديه أن نهاية الأطماع التركية تتوقف على مدى وضوح حتمية تحوّلها إلى مشروع مواجهة مع روسيا. وعلى هذه الثنائية بُنيت الاستراتيجية التي خاض الأسد صموده وصبره بانتظار تبلورها، وبني السعي لتحقيق النصر على ضبط الإيقاع السياسي والعسكري بما يساعد في إنضاج شروطها.
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خلال معارك حلب، ومن بعدها الجنوب السوري، وبينهما الغوطة ودير الزور، كانت تتحقق معادلات الأسد وتتبلور بوضوح، لكن الأكيد كان أن معركة إدلب ستبقى مختلفة، وستكون هي الفاصلة، ولذلك بُنيت خطط تحرير إدلب وحساباتها، وتوقيتها والموقف من المبادرات السياسية بخصوصها على السعي السوري للتطابق مع الحسابات الروسية والتوقيت الروسي والقراءة الروسية والمهل الروسية، حتى جاءت ساعة الصفر وصار على أردوغان أن يقرر ويختار بين مواجهة مباشرة مع روسيا، بينما الجيش السوري جاهز معنوياً وعسكرياً لخوض غمار مواجهة ترفعه لمقام الجيوش الأولى في العالم، أو بين أن يرتضي الهزيمة لمشروعه وهو يدرك أنها نهايته السياسية. ومهما كان خيار أردوغان فهو اليوم يتلمّس أن لا ناتو ولا سواه جاهز للقتال لأن الحرب لم تعد حرب أحد سواه، وأن الشعب والجيش في تركيا لا يرون سبباً للتورط في مواجهة مكلفة بلا قضية، وأن الجيش والشعب في سورية يتوقان لهذه الحرب مع إدراك ما فيها من تضحيات، وأن روسيا سئمت المراوغة والأكاذيب والتذاكي واللعب على الحبال والتلاعب بالكلام والتفاهمات، وأن ساعة الحقيقة قد حانت.
The murder of the Iranian hero-martyr General Soleimani created a situation in which a war between Iran and the Axis of Kindness (USA/Israel/KSA) became a real possibility but, at the very last minute, Uncle Shmuel decided that he had no stomach for a full-scale war against Iran. Wise decision.
This, however, does not at all imply that the AngloZionist Empire decided to stand by idly, far from it. The need to take quick and determined action became particularly acute following the huge anti-US demonstrations in Iraq (well over one million people in the streets!) which directly put at risk the US occupation (the MSM would call it “presence”) in both Iraq and Syria.
At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan’s refusal to remove all the “bad terrorists” from the Idlib province eventually resulted in a joint Syrian-Russian offensive to liberate the province. That offensive, in turn, clearly infuriated the Turks who warned of a major military operation to prevent the Syrians from liberating their own country.
This begs the question: are Russia and Turkey really on a collision course?
There are certainly some very worrying warning signs including a number of very harsh statements by Erdogan himself, and a suddenly re-kindled Turkish interest for the US “Patriots”.
On the ground in Idlib, the Turks have clearly provided the “bad terrorists” with a lot of support including equipment, MANPADs, tanks and armored personnel carriers. The Turks actually went as far as sending special forces to assist the “bad terrorists” directly. Finally, from footage taken by Russian and Syrian drones, and even the “bad terrorists” themselves, it appears undeniable that Turkish MLRS and regular artillery provided the “bad terrorists” with fire support.
Both sides also agree that a number of Turkish personnel were killed (they only disagree on how many and what these Turks were doing in Syria).
Finally, and most ominously, there is even a video circulating on the Internet which appears to show a US “Stinger” being fired by the “bad terrorists” at a Russian aircraft which, thank God, managed to evade it (unlike 2 Syrian Army helicopters which were shot down).
So the first conclusion that we can come to is that the Turks are already engaged in combat operations against the Syrians. For the time being, these combat operations are just below the threshold of “credible deniability”, but not by much. For example, if the Turks had shot down a Russian aircraft you can be pretty certain that the Russian public opinion (which has still not forgiven Erdogan for the downed Su-24) would have demanded that the Russian Aerospace Forces massively retaliate (just as they have every time Russian military personnel have been killed) kill scores of Turks.
The Russian position is very straightforward. It goes something like this:
The Turks committed to remove all the “bad terrorists” from the Idlib province, leaving only the “good terrorists” who are committed to a ceasefire and a political peace process in place. That did not happen. In this case, the Syrians clearly have to do themselves what the Turks refused (or could not) do. The Russian military presence in Syria, and the Russian military operations, are all absolutely legitimate and legal: the legitimate government of Syria invited the Russians in, and the UNSC agreed to back the Syrian peace process. Thus the Russian Aerospace Forces’ strikes against the “bad terrorists” are absolutely legal. Furthermore, Russia very much deplores the presence of regular Turkish units among the “bad terrorists” which is both illegal and very unhelpful. Finally, the Russian Aerospace forces have no way to determine who sits in which tank, or who provides artillery cover for the operations of the “bad terrorists”. Thus, if Turkish military personnel are killed in Syrian or Russian operations, this would be entirely the fault of Ankara.
So far the Turkish military operation has been rather unsuccessful and limited.
But Erdogan is now promising a major attack.
Will that happen and what can the Turks really do?
First and foremost, Turkey does not have the means to enter into a full-scale conflict with Russia. Turkey cannot do that for political, economic and military reasons:
Political: the simple truth is that Turkey (and Erdogan) desperately need Russian political support, not only towards the West, but also towards Iraq, Iran or Israel. Furthermore, Erdogan has now clearly deeply alienated the Europeans who are fed up with Erdogan’s constant threats to open the “refugees” spigot. As for the Turks, they have already known for years that the EU will never accept them and that NATO will not support Turkey in its (very dangerous) operations in Iraq and Syria.
Economic: Turkey’s economy really suffered from the sanctions introduced by Russia following the shooting down of the Russian Su-24 by Turkish aircraft (backed by USAF fighters). What was true then is even more true now, and the Turkish public opinion understands that.
Military: the past years have been absolutely disastrous for the Turkish armed forces which were purged following the coup attempt against Erdogan. This sorry state of affairs is indirectly confirmed by the very poor performance of Turkish forces in Syria.
What about a conflict limited to Syria?
Again, Turkey is in a bad position. For one thing, the Syrians and, even more so, the Russians control the airspace above Idlib. The Turks are so frustrated with this state of affairs that they have now reportedly asked the US to deploy Patriot missiles in southern Turkey. This is a rather bizarre request, especially considering that Turkey purchased S-400s from Russia or how pathetically the Patriots actually performed (recently in the KSA and elsewhere before that). This, by the way, might well be a case of fake news since, apparently, there are no Patriots available for Turkey even if the US agreed to sell.
Then there is the bellicose rhetoric we hear from Erdogan. For example, he recently declared that:
“The regime, backed by Russian forces and Iran-backed militants, are continuously attacking civilians, committing massacres and shedding blood, (…) I hereby declare that we will strike regime forces everywhere from now on regardless of the [2018] deal if any tiny bit of harm is dealt to our soldiers at observation posts or elsewhere.”
That kind of language is, of course, very dangerous but, at least so far, the Turkish operation has been both limited and unsuccessful. Syrian President Assad was not impressed and declared that:
It also means that we must not rest idle, but prepare for the battles to come. As a result, the battle to liberate the Aleppo and Idlib countryside continues regardless of some empty sound bubbles coming from the north (vain threats from Erdogan), just as the battle continues to liberate all of Syrian soil, crush terrorism and achieve stability.
In the meantime, in Iraq, the US has apparently dug-in and categorically refuses to leave. In practical terms this means that the Iraqis will have to step up their anti-US campaign both politically (more protests and demonstrations) and militarily (more IEDs, convoy attacks and, probably soon, drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attacks on US targets in Iraq). I don’t believe that the US will be able to sustain that kind of pressure in the mid to long term, especially not in an election year (which promises to be hellish anyway). Right now, the Idiot-in-Chief seems to think that threatening Iraq with “very big sanctions” is the way to restore good relationships. In reality, all this will do is to further inflame anti-US feelings in Iraq and the rest of the region.
Then there is the tactical situation. Please check these two maps: (click on map for a higher resolution)
The part in red shows the government controlled areas. The light blue (or light green on the 2nd map) show the Turkish deployment. The part in olive green (or darker green on the 2nd map) shows the parts of the Idlib province which are still under Takfiri occupation. Finally, the small region around Tell Rifaat are controlled by the Kurds.
The Syrian forces, backed by Russia, have now pushed back the latest Turkish+Takfiri attack north and west of Aleppo and they are now attacking the southern tip of the Takfiri occupation zone around the Zawiya mountain and highlands, see here:
The Syrians have options here. They can either gradually push north, or they can try to envelop the Takfiri forces in a “cauldron”. Finally, the Syrians would score a major victory if they succeeded in regaining control of the highway between Aleppo and Latakia (in blue on the map).
As for the Turkish-backed Takfiris, they are pushing very hard towards Idlib, so far with only moderate and temporary successes (they typically take a location at hugecost in lives and equipment and then cannot hold on to it as soon as the Syrians and Russians bomb the crap out of their newly conquered positions).
All of this is taking place while Syrian, Russian, Turkish and US patrols are regularly meeting, often in rather tense situations which could quickly escalate into a firefight or, even worse, an open battle. There is also the risk of an incident in the air since these four nations also conduct air operations over Syria. And, just like in the case of the ground operations, Syrian and Russian air operations are legal under international law, Turkish, US or Israeli operations are not and constitute an act of “aggression” (n.b: the highest crime under international law).
So far, the various negotiations between the parties have not yielded any result. This might change on March 5th when a conference on Syria attended by Turkey, Russia, France and Germany will meet (probably in Istanbul) to try to find a negotiated solution. Considering that Turkish soldiers are killed every day and already that 2 Syrian helicopters have been shot down, this might be too late to avoid an escalation.
I will conclude here by posting a (minimally corrected) machine translation of a Russian translation of a text originally written by a Turkish political commentator and translated into Russian by a Telegram channel: (emphasis added)
Russia’s strategy from the very beginning was to return full control of Syrian territories to Assad. And Moscow was implementing its plans, getting closer to the goal step by step. As long as Damascus will not take Idlib, the operation will continue. You don’t need to be an expert in this field to understand this. This is obvious. Someone says that Erdogan’s trip to Ukraine played a role in the offensive operations of Damascus. In fact, this visit is the result of the Syrian army’s offensive. The Turkish President went to Kiev just after tensions rose between the Turkish armed forces and the Russian side. Erdogan is in Ukraine made statements that have caused irritation in Moscow.
Turkish diplomacy was at an impasse. We discussed for a long time that you can’t put all your eggs in one Russian basket. And they said: we will buy the S-400, build a nuclear power plant, and develop tourism. And Putin was made a hero in our country. And now the defense Secretary is talking about buying American patriot air defense systems. And the President is talking about acquiring Patriot. “We did not succeed with Russia, we will get closer to the United States” – this is not how foreign policy is done. We need consistency in foreign policy. It is not appropriate for a country with a strong military power to change sides between world powers once a week.
What we are still discussing these days: we need to get closer to Europe and the US against Russia. These discussions worry our entrepreneurs who work with Russia. The tourism sector is concerned. Without Russian tourists, our tourism sector cannot fill all the volumes and make a profit. We have not yet been able to resolve these issues, and we are discussing a clash with Russia. Let’s remember what happened after Turkey shot down a Russian plane. Our tourism sector could not recover for two years. What to expect from a military clash. We have to talk about it.
The goal of our state: to live in peace on our land, and keep all the troubles away from yourself, while doing this to attract new troubles – this is not an indicator of a good military strategy or a well-thought-out diplomatic strategy. Everyone should understand this.
The risk for Erdogan is obvious: in case of a serious confrontation with Russia (and Syria AND Iran, don’t forget them!), the consequences for Turkey might be severe, resulting in a sharp rise in anti-Erdogan feelings in Turkey, something he can hardly afford.
And that brings us to the current US/NATO/CENTCOM posture following the assassination of General Soleimani I mentioned in the beginning of this article. The risks of a quick and dangerous escalation involving the US and Iran are still extremely high. The same can be said for the risks of a resumption of anti-US attacks by Iraqi Shia forces. Then there are the conflicts in both Afghanistan and Yemen, which Uncle Shmuel probably would prefer to end, but has no idea how. In these countries a rapid escalation could occur at any time, especially following Iran’s officially declared goal to kick the US out of the Middle-East. And now, there is a risk of major escalation between Turkey, Syria and Russia: such an escalation would have a major potential to suck in the US forces in the region, even if nobody does so deliberately (or if the Iranians do that very deliberately).
Right now Uncle Shmuel is busy with a strategic PSYOP trying to get Russia and Iran into a conflict (see this propaganda piece for example). That will not work, as both the Russians and the Iranians are waaaaaaay too savvy to fall for such primitive things. The US also tried to instigate riots inside Iran, but they quickly petered out (as did the rumors about the US deliberately shooting down the Ukrainian airliner).
The Middle-East is impossible to predict, it is too complex and there are too many possible factors which influence the situation. Still, my guess is that the March 5th conference, assuming it takes place, will force Erdogan to back down and re-pledge his commitment to bringing back security to the Idlib province. That is, as far as I can see, the only way for Erdogan to avoid an embarrassing military defeat with possibly very serious political consequences.
Conversely, should there be an open clash between Turkey and Syria+Russia, then I don’t see NATO intervening to back Turkey. At the most, the US/NATO can send forces to “protect” Turkey and equipment, but in both cases these would not be effective (the problems of the Turkish military are too big to be solved by such mostly symbolic actions). While some more rabid countries (Poland, Netherlands, UK and, of course, the USA) might be tempted to get a major NATO action going against Syria and, through that, against Russia, the mentally saner EU countries have exactly zero desire to end up in a war against Russia, not over the Ukraine, and not over Syria.
Thus while Erdogan is desperately trying to pit the US against Russia, this will not work, especially since this latest pro-US “zag” will only further alienate Iran (and the rest of the region). I predict that after the March 5th conference, Erdogan will be forced to resume his “friendship” with Putin and basically cave in.
If that does not happen, for whatever reason, an escalation will be pretty close to inevitable.
PS: Colonel Cassad (aka Boris Rozhin) has published on his blog an interesting article which looks at a theory which, apparently, is popular in the Middle-East and Russia. This theory says that what is taking place is a gigantic show, a deception, in which both Russia and Turkey appear to be at odds, but in reality are working hand in hand to disarm the Takfiris and exchange territory. Here are, in his opinion, the possibly indications of such a collaboration: (machine translated and minimally corrected)
After some formalities, Turkey resumed joint patrols with the Russian military in Rojava, which is carried out in a routine manner.
Russia has increased the quota for the supply of Turkish tomatoes to Russia despite the fact that Russia threatened to block the supply of Turkish tomatoes.
US did not give Turkey patriot missile, which was described in the Turkish media referring to anonymous sources in the Turkish government. No actual support from the United States and NATO, Turkey has not received.
Despite the fact that the SAA was not going to stop the offensive and continued to surround the Turkish observation points, Turkey has effectively given Assad’s carte blanche for all of February, stating that no major combat operation will be initiated before the beginning of March.
The main chain of the new observation points were deployed by Turkey to the North of highway M-4. The southern direction is not actually strengthened. Attempts to cover the Kafr will Sagna or Kafr Nabl were not undertaken, although this is more important points than Nairab.
The bulk of the Pro-Turkish militants were drawn to Idlib and Carmine, while the southern front was actually exposed for Assad there is a situation of maximum favour for liberation dozen cities and towns.
The battle of Niravam turned into a week-long meat grinder, where the militants engaged in stupid frontal assaults against Syrian positions with heavy losses but capturing Neirab, there is virtually nothing on the operational level, they did not win – losing people and most importantly – time.
The Russian and Turkish military keep all channels of communication and exchange information, including on the movement of Turkish columns. The Russian military help to supply the surrounded Turkish observational points in the rear of Assad.
Moscow and Ankara have repeatedly stressed that not to seek a military conflict with each other, preferring to seek resolution of disputes through diplomatic means.
And Rozhin adds:
Why all this may be part of a backroom deal? Because such a scenario would allow Turkey to look like a defender of Idlib, which is in strong opposition to the plans of Assad and Putin. At least visually. As for Assad and Putin, they can claim to have liberated part of the Idlib province. The battle of Niravam in this logic allow Erdogan to save face before “in the interests of peace and security,” to sign a new deal with Russia with a new line of demarcation, which officially has already been discussed at negotiations in Moscow on 17-18 February. Officially, the Turks rejected it. But it’s official. And if we assume that the agreement already exists and this just fixed sight 5 March, while Assad released another piece of Idlib and the militants “An-Nusra” will be partially disposed in the battles with the SAA in Idlib and in the southern frontal attack on the front under Niranam. In favor of this version may indicate the previous experience of transactions between Russia and Turkey, when Ankara loudly growled at Assad, but de facto did not prevent the Assad regime to clean up the enclaves and win the battle for Aleppo. Against this version can play what the Turks themselves are suffering losses in manpower, and further concessions to Russia may undermine Erdogan’s positions in Idlib, so he tries to bargain.
I personally doubt this version, if only because this is a very tricky and dangerous way to get things done, and because of the many threats and even ultimatums Erdogan is constantly spewing. A more likely explanation for all of the above is that 1) the Takfiris are desperate and are running out of steam and 2) the Turks are afraid of a serious confrontation with Russia. Rozin concludes:
I think that by March 5 the question of whether there is was a secret deal or not will finally be clarified, since Erdogan’s threats are all focusing on early March, at which point he will have to either attack or chose to play the role of peacemaker, which “diplomatically” stopped the advance of Assad.
On February 20, the 2nd Army of NATO and its proxy forces once again failed to capture the village of Nayrab, eastern Idlib, from the Syrian Army. The Turkish attack involved 2 dozens of military equipment pieces, including battle tanks and artillery, over 200 Turkish soldiers and approximately 300 members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and other Turkish-backed groups.
The Turkish attack started at approximately 13:00 local time under jeers of mainstream media regarding the nearing collapse of the Syrian defense and the Assad government under powerful strikes of the Turkish Army. By 14:00 local time, some Turkish supporters in twitter already concurred Aleppo city and were preparing to advance on Damascus.
However, by 17:00 it appeared that the attack died out despite the massive rocket and artillery strikes and the participation of Turkish troops united their efforts against the Syrians with al-Qaeda. Turkish-led forces, supposedly Turkish troops, even launched a MANPAD at a Russian Su-24 warplane that came to provide a close-air-support to Syrian troops. After this, the Turkish Defense Ministry reported that 2 Turkish soldiers were killed and 5 others were injured in an airstrike.
In keeping with the best traditions, the Turkish Defense Ministry a victorious statement claiming that 50 ‘Assad troops’ were killed, 2 Syrian battle tanks, 2 armoured vehicles, 2 armed pickups and a howitzer were destroyed. However, all what the Turkish side was able to demonstrate to confirm these claims were a few Hayat Tahrir al-Sham selfies from the vicinity of Nayrab. Turkish state media immediately declared that Turkish forces did not want to capture the village and just sent a message to the oppressive Assad regime.
After this, the mighty Turkish Army requested Patriots systems from the United States in order to deter the Assad aggression in Idlib. There are two explanations:
Ankara apparently missed news that Patriots deployed at in Saudi Arabia had repeatedly failed to protect its military infrastructure from missile and drone strikes by the Yemeni Houthis.
The Erdogan government would like to see troops of the United States in Idlib alongside their Turkish and al-Qaeda counterparts.
The Russian side officially confirmed that its warplanes supported the Syrian Army striking targets in Idlib. According to it, a battle tank, 6 armoured vehicles and 5 armed pickups were destroyed. Moscow says that Turkish artillery strikes injured 4 Syrian soldiers.
February is coming to its end and the Turkish ultimatum demanding the Syrians to withdraw from the liberated areas is expiring. The inability of Turkish forces to recapture even a single village from the Syrian Army already became a powerful blow to the public image of the Erdogan government. Therefore, it’s likely that the Turkish Army will continue their attacks in Idlib paying with own blood for neo-ottoman dreams of Erdogan and its inner circle.
مستجدات عسكرية كثيرة رسمت مشهد شمال شرق سورية؛ هي مستجدات ستغيّر خارطة التحالفات السياسية ليس في سورية فحسب، بل على مستوى الإقليم، فالتطورات في شمال شرق سورية، وما تحتويه من منجزات ذهبية حققها الجيش السوري في معارك إدلب، سيكون لها معادلة ناظمة للمشهد السياسي في سورية، كما أنّ تداعيات هذه المعارك والمنجزات، ستؤثر بالمطلق على المناخ العسكري شرق الفرات وإدلب، لكن اليوم الأولوية لهندسة خارطة إدلب، فما هندسته الدولة السورية وجيشها، تردّد صداه لدى مسامع رئيس النظام التركي رجب طيب أردوغان، حيث بلغ التوتر بين سورية وحلفائها وتركيا وحلفائها مستويات مرتفعة سياسياً وعسكرياً.
خروج تركيا عن مسار تفاهمات سوتشي وبيانات أستانا، دفع سورية وروسيا على حدّ سواء لوضع حدّ للتدخلات التركية الغير مبرّرة في سورية، وتطاولها على السيادة السورية، ما يوحي بأنّ أزمة تركية ـ روسية تلوح في الأفق.
هي أزمة بدأت بوادرها على خلفية دخول أرتال عسكرية تركية إلى سورية بأعداد كبيرة، تمهيداً لصدّ تقدّم قوات الجيش السوري نحو إدلب، ومحاولة وضع العصيّ في مسيرة المنجزات العسكرية، منعاً لسيطرة الجيش السوري على آخر معاقل الفصائل الإرهابية، وبالتالي تصبح ورقة «المعارضة ذات الغطاء التركي» خارج ايّ مفاوضات مقبلة، وهذا ما يجعل تركيا تخسر ورقتها، وربما هذا ما دفعها لإدارة ظهرها لجميع الاتفاقيات التي حصلت بما فيها اتفاقية «سوتشي»، تمهيداً لخلط الأوراق من جديد، والحصول على المزيد من الوقت لكسب المزيد من النقاط.
الجيش السوري عراب المعارك في شمال سورية، وهو يتقدّم بخطى واثقة نحو إدلب، ويطلب من المسلحين ألا ينصتوا لما تقوله لهم تركيا ويدعوهم إلى إلقاء السلاح وتسوية أوضاعهم، لأنّ السيطرة على إدلب ستحصل شاء أردوغان أم أبى، ولن تنفع مجموعة أرتال عسكرية تركية من منع تقدّم الجيش السوري، لا سيما انّ روسيا أيضاً تريد دعم سورية في سيطرتها على إدلب، بعد أن استهدف المسلحون القواعد العسكرية الروسية في عدة مرات، والأهمّ أنّ تركيا ووفقاً لاتفاقية سوتشي لم تُخرِج الجماعات والفصائل المسلحة المصنّفة على لوائح الإرهاب من مدينة إدلب.
تطورات المعارك العسكرية أفضت في وقت سابق، إلى سيطرة الجيش السوري على مدينة معرة النعمان، الأمر الذي بدأ من خلاله حدوث شرخ في العلاقة الروسية التركية، فقد وصل هذا الشرخ إلى الحدّ الذي دفع بأنقرة للقول «إنّ صبرها بدأ ينفذ»، ومتهمة موسكو بانتهاك الاتفاقات التي تهدف لتوقف الصراع، علماً انّ تركيا هي من عجز عن إخراج المسلحين من مناطق خفض التصعيد، وهي من أعطى الضوء الأخضر لاستهداف الجيش السوري، بما يخالف بنود الاتفاق.
المزاعم التي تسوقها تركيا عقب منجزات الجيش السوري، تتمحور حول المخاوف من تدفق موجات جديدة من اللاجئين، على الرغم من أنّ الدولة السورية قد افتتحت معابر إنسانية، لخروج المدنيين الراغبين من مناطق إدلب، لكن الفصائل الإرهابية المدعومة تركياً، منعت المدنيين من الخروج، حتى باتوا دروعاً بشرية، يتمّ استثمارهم سياسياً.
المزاعم التركية تعاظمت عند استمرار تقدّم الجيش السوري، وقضمه المزيد من المناطق، وسيطرته على غالبية الطرق الدولية، الأمر الذي بات بحكم الأمر الواقع، فقد أعلن الجيش السوري مضيّه في ملاحقة ما تبقى من التنظيمات الإرهابية، إلى أن يتمّ تطهير كامل التراب السوري من رجس الإرهاب.
من جهتها انتقدت روسيا تصريحات الرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان حول إدلب، مشدّدة على أنها تفي بكامل التزاماتها بموجب اتفاق سوتشي. وقال المتحدث باسم الرئاسة الروسية ديمتري بيسكوف، إنّ «الهجمات الإرهابية المستمرة بإدلب تشكل مصدر قلق عميق لموسكو».
ورداً على طلب التعليق على تصريحات أردوغان، التي أعلن فيها أنّ روسيا لا تفي بالتزاماتها بموجب اتفاق إدلب، أجاب بيسكوف خلال حديث مع الصحافيين: «لا نوافق على ذلك، روسيا تنفذ التزاماتها بالكامل بموجب اتفاقات سوتشي فيما يتعلق بمنطقة إدلب».
الدولة السورية كان لها رأيها في ما يخصّ التدخل العسكري التركي المباشر في سورية، حيث أكد نائب وزير الخارجية السوري فيصل المقداد، أنّ ممارسات تركيا تتناقض بشكل صارخ مع مسار أستانا واتفاقات سوتشي، وما أجمعت عليه الدول الضامنة لإنهاء الأزمة السورية.
إنّ ما يحدث من تصعيد من قبل النظام التركي في إدلب، هو تسخين للجبهات واستفزاز ممنهج، ووفق المعطيات الحالية فإنّ الدولة السورية وحلفاءها عازمون على تحرير إدلب من بقايا الإرهاب التركي، والجيش السوري سيستهدف كلّ النقاط التركية المحاصرة، فضلاً عن استهدافه مجمل معاقل النصرة الإرهابية، فهو يدافع عن أرضه وسيادته الوطنية وفقاً للقانون الدولي، اذ لا يوجد قانون في العالم يسمح لأيّ دولة ان تعتدي على سيادة دولة أخرى، وبالتالي ما تقوم به سورية هو دفاع عن النفس، وستستمرّ فيه حتى إخراج آخر جندي تركي من الأراضي السورية.
BEIRUT, LEBANON (7:40 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) claims they cordoned a Turkish observation point in the city of Saraqib near Idlib, a major opposition-controlled stronghold in the country.
Footage filmed on Sunday shows the observation point with the Turkish flag waving on top.
“All the observation points are completely surrounded by the Syrian Arab Army,” a Syrian soldier said.
“The Turks tried to withdraw from Tell Toqan towards Tavtanaz and Bab Al-hawa.”
The observation point was reportedly built on February 1, along with five others near Saraqib. Under the 2017 Astana agreement and the 2018 Sochi agreement, Turkey could build and maintain 12 observation posts in opposition-held territories as part of the demilitarisation process of Idlib.
The SAA has been encircling Turkish observation posts since August 2019 as it recaptured opposition-held territories.
As the Syrian government made advances in the Idlib region, regaining control of the strategic town of Saraqib after a weeks-long military offensive, a large Turkish military convoy including tanks and armoured vehicles was seen crossing the border into Syria on Friday.
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