Friday-Lunch-Club

   [MEPGS: Excerpts:] "... Veteran US officials, already concerned about the unpredictable course of events throughout the Middle East, have become increasingly uneasy about the way the Administration is course, Libya.  While acknowledging the rapidly changing situation on the ground can make for hurried change of plans, these officials, nonetheless argue that a combination of inexperience and ideology has characterized White House decision making from the beginning.  "The President should never have called upon Qaddafy to go before knowing whether his urging or forces on the ground would do the trick," said one US Middle East expert.  Moreover, this official says that the Administration has little idea of who makes up the opposition.  They know it is based in the always recalcitrant eastern part of Libya but its claim to having adherents in other parts of the country, even the leadership in Benghazi admits, cannot be named, due to fear that they will be targeted by forces loyal to the Libyan dictator.

     Much of the criticism is directed at National Security Council ["NSC"] staffers, including National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, his Deputy Denis McDonough and especially staffers Ben Rhodes and Samantha Power.  Donilon and McDonough are seen as having little hands-on foreign policy experience, while Rhodes and Power are considered ideologically driven. Power [Who achieved some notoriety and a demotion during the Presidential primary season for calling Hillary Clinton a "monster"] is widely regarded as advocating armed intervention in humanitarian crisis situations.  With NSC meetings scheduled with little or no advance notice, officials in various Departments find themselves struggling to create a coherent strategy.  "Everything seems to be geared to a 24 hour news cycle," complained one State Department official.

     Somewhat ironically, the one person State Department officials see as potentially providing what one calls "adult supervision" is Dennis Ross, ......  Yet, today it appears that Ross has been somewhat marginalized by other NSC staffers, much to the chagrin of others in the Administration who argue that current policy lacks coherence.

     While Libya is the "front burner" issue in the words of one US official, most US Middle East experts are more concerned about events in the Persian Gulf, specifically the uprising in Bahrain.....  While US officials discount an Iranian role in the current troubles there, Saudi Arabia, by far the most important GCC member, does not.  More important, the Saudis see their archrival, Iran, now two hundred miles away across the Gulf, with the Fifth fleet in between.  Should a Shia led government emerge in Bahrain, in their view, the Saudis would be looking at a Iran only 12 miles away with no US fleet as a buffer [One senior State Department officials demurs, noting slyly "What the Saudis fear is a Shia Bahrain friendly to and dependent on the US, not them"].

 

     While the situation in Bahrain is the most "delicate" to quote one Administration insider, ongoing events in Egypt remain the most important.  The referendum overwhelmingly approved this week, which provides for constitutional changes and the election of a new President, has proved to be a disappointment to many reformers, both here and in Egypt.  "This outcome almost precisely mirrors the one offered by [ousted President] Mubarak, says one State Department official.  In the view of many, the young secular rebels who led the non-violent overthrow of Mubarak were outmaneuvered by the more savvy (Saudi influenced) Moslem Brotherhood and especially the Egyptian military.  "The `Goodniks' never had a chance," says one veteran US analyst.  "Their strength was mobilization not negotiations, especially with the army." In the meantime, the army has moved to consolidate its power.  Among those now on trial for corruption are some businessmen who stand in the way of the military expanding its role in the Egyptian economy, say US experts.  The leading military figure, Defense Minister Muhammed Tantawi, is no advocate of free market democracy, say US officials.  "Tantawi is a Soviet trained general who makes Mubarak look like George Washington," cracks one veteran State Department official.

     The latest and perhaps the most unexpected uprising is taking place in the Syrian town of Dara'a.... But US officials note that this massacre (Hamah) was orchestrated by the current Syrian leader's father Hafez al-Assad and his son, Bashar, has shown none of his father's ruthlessness nor, for that matter, political skills.

     Meanwhile, US officials also look anxiously at the results of a similar scale of bloodletting in Yemen, which has led its previously durable leader Ali Abdullah Saleh to the brink of resignation.  Until last Friday's shootings which are estimated to have taken the lives of upwards of 50 protestors, most analysts were predicting that Saleh would be able to ride out the political storm.  As one veteran non-governmental observer put it several weeks ago, "Saleh has too many levers at his disposal to be ousted anytime soon."  US officials who agreed with that assessment began to change their calculations.

     Even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict took an uptick this week as shelling on Israeli towns and cities from Gaza dramatically increased....  However, US officials believe that considering the volatility of events in the region, especially in Egypt, the Israeli response will be "measured".  As one key US official put it, "The Israelis are already nervous about who will replace Mubarak.  And as distasteful as someone like Amr Mousa might be, at least he `buys into' the Camp David process." The same cannotbe said for his likely opponents."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 12:55 PM

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian