A Lebanese gunman takes cover from a fire in the Bab al-Tabbaneh district of the northern Lebanese port city of Tripoli on 24 August 2012, as clashes between pro- and anti-Syrian factions continue. (Photo: AFP - Anwar Amro)
With the fighting still raging between Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen amid the scenes of devastation in the alleyways, the dead being buried and the injured in hospital, the parties have begun making their preliminary counts of political losers and winners.
None more so than members of the Future Movement, whose general coordinator, former MP Mustafa Alloush, has no qualms about conceding that “what is happening in the city definitely costs us politically.” The damage comes from two sources: the harm done to local people by the clashes and their consequences; and from the rise of extremism in the city and the sense that the city’s Alawi minority is threatened and vulnerable.Alloush affirms that “all of Lebanon is harmed by what is happening in Tripoli” and “we are trying with all our capabilities to contain what is happening and limit the damage, and explain to all sides that it is not their interest, but serves the interests of the country’s enemies.”
He dismisses accusations that the Future Movement or groups considered to be affiliated to it have been instigating the violence. “One day they say we’ve lost control of the street, and the next day they say that we are controlling that street. If we had possessed this street, would it have slipped out of our hands?”
As to whether the clashes might have a negative impact on the Future Movement at the next parliamentary elections, Alloush replies that “what concerns us right now is saving the city and preventing it from being dragged into or falling into strife.”
A similar view of developments in Tripoli is taken by sources close to Prime Minister Najib Mikati. “The public who took to the street do not have strong connections to Mikati and his supporters. Their reins are not in his hands, so he cannot influence or direct them.”
The sources say< however, that Mikati stands to gain in the longer term politically from the “negative behavior” of this group, both as head of government and as a local Tripoli politician. “First, his supporters will rally round him more.
Secondly, people harmed by the negative behavior of this public, and they are not few, will have nothing preventing them or giving them qualms about supporting Mikati. As both prime minister and a son of the city, they will see in him a ray of hope that their interests can be safeguarded and security and stability restored to the city.”
According to one seasoned observer of the changing political scene in Tripoli, all the city’s traditional political heavyweights stand to lose out politically from the latest developments to varying degrees, including the Future Movement, Mikati, and former minister Faisal Karami. “But while Mikati and Karami are capable of recovering afterwards, it will be hard for the Future Movement.”
By way of illustration, observers recall how at one stage in the 1980s the fundamentalist Tawhid movement assumed control of Tripoli and former premier Rashid Karami was deemed a loser. Yet the Karami family retained its leadership role, while the Tawhid movement faded away into a minor local faction beholden to it.
They see the city’s currently resurgent Islamists as political “upstarts” in Tripoli who will eventually retreat as they did in the 1980s. But it is to the Future Movement that they will have done the most damage, while Mikati and Karami are better placed to recoup their losses.
They suggest that the Future Movement’s recovery prospects are further compromised by the ascendancy of its “security wing” over its “military wing.” They claim that former premiers Saad al-Hariri and Fouad Siniora and MP Samir al-Jisr “are now standing behind Ashraf Rifi, Wissam al-Hassan and Amid Hammoud, not to mention MPs Mohammed Kabbara and Khaled Daher and some sheikhs.”The sources view the developments in Tripoli as the outcome of “a regional decision to act to bring down the Mikati government and turn the North into a backyard for the Syrian opposition.” But they insist that this is not in the long-term interest of Hariri and his outfit. “When the time comes for a settlement, the city will rebel against this reality. Mikati and Karami will be the ones in a position to reap the fruit, at the expense the Future Movement and the new Islamists.”
River to Sea
Uprooted Palestinian 
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