Lebanon: Presidential void inevitable

Thursday, 1 May 2014

Lebanon: Presidential void inevitable

Lebanese members of parliament count the votes after casting their ballots to elect the new Lebanese president in the parliament building in downtown Beirut on April 23, 2014. (Photo: AFP-Joseph Eid/POOL)

By: Nicolas Nassif

Published Thursday, May 1, 2014

Judging from what happened on April 23 and April 30, the upcoming sessions of parliament to elect a new president are only a facade until political factions can decide on a consensus candidate. The number of MPs attending – those who want to reach quorum and those who want to evade it – will dwindle week after week. The 2014 presidential elections are starting to look like the 2008 elections.

Up until the constitutional deadline on May 25 and President Michel Suleiman's departure from Baabda, it will not be likely to reach the quorum needed to elect a new president in the weekly parliament sessions. All sides are moving towards an inevitable void and the beginning of a new political phase. It will be based on adapting to the vacancy in the executive branch and attempting to prevent it from extending into the next constitutional deadline awaiting March 8 and March 14.

Between July 20 and November 20, another political hurdle awaits, which will be as complicated as the presidential elections. November 20 is the end of parliament's term. Political factions must not to fall into another void, this time in the legislative branch. Parliamentary elections need to be held in that period, unless the MPs extend parliament's term once again.

This hurdle, following the vacuum in the presidency, will mean that parliament would not only have to extend its term, like it did on May 31, 2013, but also find a way to pass the extension and publish it in the Official Gazette without the president's signature. Presidential powers will be transferred to the government of Tammam Salam according to article 62 of the constitution. However, he will need to get the signatures of all 24 ministers for the parliamentary extension decree, as those powers are awarded to the council of ministers as a whole.

Of course, the next constitutional hurdle is not the main reason for electing a president. The expected void entails being prepared to tackle several problems.

After the parliament session on April 30 it is apparent the two-thirds parliamentary quorum will not be reached anytime soon, regardless of the number of sessions called by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. He could call for four or five sessions at most before the May 25 deadline. In the 2007-2008 elections, he called for 20 sessions, five within the constitutional time limit between July 25 and November 24, 2007, and 15 afterwards.

Back then, the same sides, March 8 and March 14, did not seem to be burdened by the constitutional deadline, which would have forced them to find a two-thirds majority to elect a president from the first round. It does not seem burdensome today either, with neither side seeing the constitutional deadline as the final date to elect a new president.

However, this also means the following:

1- March 8 and March 14 are using the prospective vacancy as a tool for the next phase of the conflict. They are not worried about the outcome, as long as the Salam government contains ministers from both sides to manage the void in the executive branch and maintain stability. This would avoid a hold on power by one side, such as the Fouad Siniora government during the presidential vacancy in 2007-2008. Back then, after the end of Emile Lahoud's term, Siniora was forced to visit former Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir to assure him that the cabinet would only use the powers of the presidency in the narrowest scope possible.

2. Neither side is going to budge from their position on who should be the next president, except at an advanced stage of the presidential void, whose local and regional conditions cannot be anticipated. This could lead Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun to keep betting on being a consensus candidate with support from the Future Movement, without announcing his candidacy. It would also lead the head of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, to hold on to his candidacy in all the sessions set by Berri. Until now at least, neither candidate is ready to admit that clinging to their candidacy will lead to a stalemate, which could only be resolved if both exit the race. Hezbollah and the Future Movement are acting in the same manner. They both support their candidates wholeheartedly, allowing them to move ahead in their absurd gamble, until they get tired on their own and feel that they weakened the process and each other. It would be an illusion to believe that the Future Movement, which abandoned the three other March 14 candidates, will ask Geagea to pull out. The same goes for Hezbollah and Aoun.

Thus the quorum, which is the core item needed for electing a president, is turned into a marginal issue. In the current battle, neither side will be able to get their candidate into Baabda. It is also important to note that MP Walid Jumblatt will not give either side the simple majority, except through a political settlement that excludes both Geagea and Aoun.

3. External signals do not point to an international intervention anytime soon to elect the president within the constitutional deadlines. Perhaps there will be some waiting time until Baabda becomes vacant. Some of the indicators around Riyadh's position on the current contacts between the FPM and the Future Movement might explain the slow pace.

Despite avoiding to delve into the details, the kingdom's only candidate at the time being is Geagea and it does not think of reconsidering its position. The Kingdom does not mind a dialogue between Aoun and Hariri, as long as it does not go against the Saudi position.

But there is still no answer to the lingering question repeatedly asked by Bassil to Hariri's envoy: Why the insistence on Geagea?

This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.