Shit on all of you and these elections.“Banana Republic” - a nice citizen

p20_20090608_pic2_0full This picture encapsulates the spirit of the recently concluded Lebanese elections… and it has nothing to do with the results that likely set the circumstances for its publication. The newspaper behind the photo claims it shows an actual ballot used by an angry voter. Khara 3alaykum wa 3ala hal entikhabat. Jumhuriyat moz. Mowaten adami. Most of it is lost in translation - as Arabic phrases so often are - but a literal English translation would be:

Shit on all of you and these elections.
“Banana Republic”
- a nice citizen

On Monday, Lebanese headed to the polls in record numbers. Several thousand were even flown in and paid to vote for certain people, but we are unlikely to hear the US and its allies screaming too loudly about foul play - they got what they wanted (sort of).

As Robert Fisk made clear in the brilliant article Will linked to earlier, there are no winners and losers in Lebanese elections. Hariri’s coalition may have won more seats than its rivals, but it fell short of securing a two-thirds majority in parliament. It is also worth noting that the party of Michel Aoun did better than any of its Christian rivals. Considering the role Lebanese Christians have typically played in Lebanese politics, Aoun could insist on having greater control over the cabinet than his rivals would be comfortable with.

The actual results are only the beginning. Now comes the interesting part - the process of forming the next government. There are several possible outcomes. The new parliament will convene soon (most likely under the auspices of tired veteran Nabih Berri) and ‘vote’ for a prime minister. They could select Saad Hariri or the newly elected MP and current PM Fuad Siniora. Of course they could choose someone else, but whatever they decide, they will do so before parliament convenes. Voting in Lebanon is just for show; deals are made ahead of time between the elders of various tribes; this is what happened in the run up to June 7.

In Lebanese politics, everything is done by consensus and the selection of the prime minster will be no exception. Once he is chosen, he will begin his quest to form a government. If he is to avoid civil war, he must reach out to all major political parties. But it is most probable that the president will see his influence increase as Hariri seeks to alienate his rivals and prevent them from renewing their current veto power.

Of course there is always the chance of alliances shifting and affecting the final outcome, but whatever happens, it will likely be some semblance of a national unity government that is formed. Those pulling the strings will see to it that everything is done to maintain a delicate balance of power based on nothing more than sectarianism and tribalism. Nothing will change.

Meanwhile, outside forces are watching eagerly as it all unfolds. Washington lawmakers are relieved and they have been expressing their satisfaction with the recent election results. As one of them said:

These elections hold out the hope that Lebanon will be what we all know it can be: a place that respects all the different voices and religions and convictions within it; a nation that exists with one foot in the West and the other in the Arab world.

In other words Lebanon is spread wide open… and it is continually getting screwed from different angles.