Sunday Election Looms in Lebanon

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Christian Voters Seen as Key to Outcome of Major Vote

By Jason Ditz

With less than 36 hours remaining until the start of Lebanon’s hotly contested election, polls continue to suggest that the Hezbollah-led opposition bloc bolstered by its anti-corruption stance will gain markedly, and has a realistic chance of seizing power over the small Mediterranean state.

But while the power struggle has focused on the ruling March 14 Alliance, led by the mostly Sunni Future Movement, and the Hezbollah-led March 8 Alliance, the vote is almost certain to hinge on the results among Lebanon’s Christian minority, where former military commander Michel Aoun’s party is united behind the Hezbollah bloc.

Lebanon’s political system is set up to guarantee representation to each religious group. The Sunni bloc will break overwhelmingly for the Future Movement, the Shi’ites for Hezbollah and its allies. This means that, accord to the experts, “this election comes down to a few Christian districts.”

The Future Movement’s popularity is waning to some extent, as what is being called a “campaign of fear” wears a bit thin with its constituency. They offer little except anti-Syrian and anti-Iranian sentiment, and their message is that a vote for the opposition is tantamount to a vote to “hand the country over to Iran.”

By contrast Hezbollah has run an uncharacteristically upbeat campaign, with the Christian Aoun out front as a symbol of religious reconciliation. It seems set to dramatically increase their power, but will it be enough to make them the ruling party?

If so, the United States will be left in an uncomfortable position. Last month Vice President Joe Biden visited the nation and as much as said US foreign aid hinged on the ruling bloc winning. But experts are saying while the US would almost certainly pull military funding in the event of a Hezbollah victory, they will be unwilling to completely disengage from the nation, for fear Iran will eagerly take their place.

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Posted by JNOUBIYEH at 2:29 AM

Feltman “Gives Advice” to the Lebanese a Day Ahead of Elections

Once again the United States has decided to put the Lebanese parliamentary elections under the spotlight as another sign to its “interference policy” in the internal affairs of the country.

US Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jeffery Feltman said it would be naïve for some to think that the outcome of the Lebanese elections won't affect US policy in Lebanon.

In a joint interview with both dailies An-Nahar and al-Hayat on Saturday, Feltman said: "The election's outcome will naturally affect world's stance towards the new Lebanese government and the manner in which the United States and Congress deal with Lebanon. I believe the Lebanese are smart enough to understand that there will be an effect.”

He went on to indirectly criticizing the head of the Free Patriotic Movement MP General Michel Aoun saying: "one of your politicians is proposing that Christians shouldn't depend on the United States. I hope the Lebanese had accurately listened to the president's [Barack Obama] speech that specifically pointed to the widest Christian religious minority in Lebanon, the Maronites. The president spoke about the need for respecting all peoples in the region including minorities…I hope the Lebanese would ask themselves: do we want to be on the side of the international community and close to the stances that president Obama made? I hope they would say yes."

Feltman concluded his interview by “advising” the Lebanese to vote peacefully saying, "President Obama's speech [in Cairo] rejected violence as means for achieving political goals this is a message that I hope Lebanese voters would take into consideration when they head to the polls on Sunday."

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Posted by JNOUBIYEH at 3:50 AM

Loyalty to Resistance Bloc: March 14 Violating Electoral Law!