"... A conflagration in the north sometime in the near future could result from one of three developments: escalation between Israel and Iran over the latter's nuclear program; Hezbollah's efforts to exact revenge for the 2008 killing of senior operative Imad Mughniyeh; or an Israeli attack on an arms convoy from Syria to Hezbollah.
But developments on the Iranian front depend on the results of the American initiative to impose stricter sanctions, which is expected to be discussed at the Security Council only next month. And all attempts by Hezbollah to strike at Israeli targets abroad have so far failed.........
But since neither Israel, Syria nor Hezbollah seem to have any interest in a clash this summer, it may be that news of the missile transfers was actually released to diminish the chances of war....... The question is how [they] interpret Benjamin Netanyahu's observation of a reservist training exercise in Northern Command yesterday..."
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