"... White House more worried about an Israeli attack on Lebanon than Iran ..."

Via friday-Lunch-Club

SWOOP:

The floods in Pakistan have lent some focus to an otherwise fuzzy foreign policy landscape in Washington..... there are fears that the floods have undermined the legitimacy of the Pakistani government at a dangerous moment in the evolution of US policy toward the region. Opinion polls continue to show weakening public confidence in the prospects for success in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Against this, senior military commanders, including General Petraeus, are building the case to delay President Obama’s targeted mid-2011 date for a substantial withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. This pressure will present a sharp dilemma for Obama over the coming months. White House officials tell us privately that Obama remains committed to a “limited vision” for the US presence in Afghanistan. Our assessment is that he will have difficulty preserving that in the face of determined counter-arguments from the US military, as well as from other mainstream foreign policy community.

Similar differences of opinion are in play over the pace of the US drawdown in Iraq. The fuzzy August landscape has also allowed for the well-ploughed ground of a possible Israeli attack on Iran to be revisited. Our contacts in the intelligence community and military comment to us that there is no new news here. The Russian intention to start fuelling the Bushehr reactor has been received calmly in Washington. US policy remains focused on bilateral and UN-imposed sanctions.

In terms of Israeli policy, US officials are more worried about an Israeli attack on Lebanon than Iran. Finally, we need to emphasize that Obama’s political standing remains perilous. Doubts about the economic recovery has spread to the Federal Reserve and his defense of the building of an Islamic house of worship in the vicinity of Ground Zero will likely open a new round in a debate charged with religious and racial undertones."

Posted by G, Z, or B at 11:02 AM

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