Though the Lebanese are anticipating May 25, the constitutional deadline for electing a new president, regional and international powers aren’t concerned with this date. They are only interested in maintaining security and stability in the country.
Despite the intensive political mobilization to hold the presidential elections before May 25, political forces are now aware that a presidential vacuum is on the horizon. In fact, current efforts are nothing but mere formalities aiming to save face at a time when regional and international positions insist on linking the Lebanese presidency to the events in the region.
Interestingly, rhetoric warning of a vacuum in the executive branch has escalated in the past few days amid a sudden Christian enthusiasm to hold the elections on time. However, no change has occurred involving events that have been taking place on Christian, Lebanese and regional levels for months, and eventually the president is going to leave the Baabda Palace without a successor.
In fact, the insistence of all political forces to join the current government - though it was only expected to last until the elections of a new president - is a sign that the country is heading toward a power vacuum.
General Michel Aoun has been aware for a month that he isn’t going to be the future president. No matter how hard the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) negotiators try to open a new page with the Future Movement, under the auspices of the church or regional powers, Future officials may never forget the FPM’s rhetoric against them.
Aoun should have launched an initiative to bring Christians together in order to save the presidency, rather than opening channels with the Future Movement, and hearing from former Prime Minister Saad Hariri that he has to reach an agreement with his fellow Christians.
Lebanese Forces leader, Samir Geagea, also knows that he isn’t going to be elected president, even if he receives the votes of all March 14 MPs. In fact, a large group still opposes Geagea’s presence on the political scene, so what should be said about his candidacy as president?
For his part, President Michel Suleiman has ruled out the idea of extending his mandate after burning all bridges with Hezbollah and other parties. Also, deep inside, the president knows that despite all the praise he is receiving from March 14, they haven’t forgiven him yet for postponing parliamentary consultations in 2011, which eventually led to designating Najib Mikati as prime minister.
Maronite Patriarch Beshara Boutros al-Rai knows that the patriarchate lost its role following its support for the Orthodox electoral law, as well as committing a series of other mistakes, including its failure to produce an electoral law and not holding the legislative elections on schedule.
Maronites have been aware for months that electing a new president is no longer up to them, it isn’t even up to Lebanon, because there hasn’t been a regional green light yet. In fact, everything we have witnessed until this day signals a vacuum as regional and international efforts are not constrained by the May 25 deadline.
Recent developments, as well as meetings held in Beirut and in foreign capitals, reveal that a presidential vacuum is today more of a regional necessity rather than an expression of a Lebanese failure to elect a new president. More time is needed to reach a regional settlement that would put matters into perspective in the countries where Sunnis and Shias intersect, namely in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Since President Barack Obama’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the United States has been seeking to create a regional balance between Iran and Saudi, giving each influence in the region in the meantime, before designating their shares.
Since the 5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran, the United States has refrained from any sharp intervention in the Sunni-Shia struggle, which would explain the nuclear agreement with Iran and the chemical one with Syria.
This settlement plan can also explain the repositioning of the Syrian army, alongside Hezbollah, on one hand and the opposition forces on the other in well-defined geographically strategic regions.
In the past few days, opposition forces pulled out of Homs and the government retook control of the city, which further promotes the scenario discussed a few months ago that gave vital geographic regions to the Syrian regime.
The unfolding events in Homs are part of a well-planned and thoroughly executed regional blueprint. Meanwhile, a status quo is being created in opposition regions that can be used by regional powers to pressure the regime. Although political decisions are being taken smoothly, violence is the only means possible to implement such decisions on the ground.
In the meantime, Syrians will head to the polls to elect their new president, while Iraqis await the results of the legislative elections to find out whether they are going to have a new prime minister or if Nouri al-Maliki will keep his post.
In Lebanon, it is all about maintaining security, even by force. This is reflected by the decrease of violence and the many arrests.
Also, no political party has been informed about the name of a candidate that represents a compromise of regional and international positions. Most officials have been actually told to maintain stability as much as possible before reaching a presidential vacuum, which is deemed crucial to sort out the players in light of the the new rules of the game. Only then, will parties be compelled to consider new equations and options.
March 14 recently started suggesting the idea of a consensus candidate, knowing that its suggestion will remain local because it still lacks a regional cover.
This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
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