Monday, 13 April 2020

Hezbollah’s Nightmare Continues to Irritate “Israel”: This Time from Syria




Hezbollah’s Nightmare Continues to Irritate “Israel”: This Time from Syria

The nightmare of Hezbollah is still irritating the top “Israeli” military institution. However, this time the pretext is the so-called “Hezbollah’s presence in Syria”.
In this context, the “Israeli” military posted on Friday a grainy footage on Twitter purporting to show the head of the Syrian Armed Forces 1st Corps, Major General Ali Ahmad Assad, visiting the so-called “Hezbollah positions in Syria.”
The footage, which was filmed from a distance, showed individuals wearing military fatigues greeting a man with military salutes and shaking hands with him in an open area.
The text accompanying the footage on the ‘Israeli’ post read, “See the man with white hair? That’s the head of the Syrian Armed Forces 1st Corps, Major General Ali Ahmad Assad. He’s visiting Hezbollah positions in #Syria.”
“Our message: We see you. Consider this a warning,” the caption further read. “We won’t allow Hezbollah to entrench itself militarily in Syria.”

Israeli military posts video of Syrian Army commander meeting with Hezbollah




BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:00 A.M.) – The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) published a video on Friday that allegedly showed a Syrian military commander meeting with Hezbollah personnel in Syria.
“Look closely. See the man with white hair? That’s the head of the Syrian Armed Forces 1st Corps, Luau Ali Ahmad Assad. He’s visiting Hezbollah positions in Syria. Our message: We see you. Consider this a warning,” a message accompanying the video warns.
Avichay Adraee, the head of the IDF’s Arabic-language media division, offered more details about the video in an Arabic-language tweet, alleging that the video was shot in the Syrian-controlled portion of the Golan Heights, and warning that Israel would “not tolerate” the “entrenchment” of Hezbollah forces in the area.
Look closely. See the man with white hair? That’s the head of the Syrian Armed Forces 1st Corps, Luau Ali Ahmad Assad. He’s visiting Hezbollah positions in .
Our message: We see you. Consider this a warning.
We won’t allow Hezbollah to entrench itself militarily in Syria.



Embedded video
4,160 people are talking about this
The Syrian military has not commented on the video, its authenticity, or Israel’s warning.
The Israeli military has repeatedly targeted Hezbollah and other ‘Iran-backed’ forces in Syria in recent years, citing the group’s threat to Tel Aviv’s national security.
Syria has slammed Israel at the United Nations and other forums over its air and missile attacks, citing the crucial role played by Hezbollah’s assistance to Damascus in its near-decade long war against al-Qaeda, Daesh (ISIS), and other terrorist elements.




River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

HOW PRECISE IRANIAN MISSILES? ANALYSIS OF MISSILE STRIKES ON U.S. MILITARY BASE IN IRAQ




This video is based on the analysis of Haider Geoanalyst originally appeared on TheSaker.is
Several sources in the past weeks have analyzed the Iranian missile strikes on US forces at the Ayn Al Asad Airbase which took place more than two weeks ago on the 8th of January 2020 as a retaliation for the US assassination of the Iranian general Qassem Sulaimani.
In this analysis, the post-strike satellite imagery is assessed to give us some insights on what happened at the Ayn Al Asad Airbase and to estimate the accuracy of the Iranian missiles.
It is clear, even prior to conducting any analysis, that the Iranian missiles targeted individual structures with a high rate of accuracy. This analysis attempts to estimate the accuracy in terms of how far the missiles landed from their targets. Since the Iranians did not make public the targets they wanted to hit or destroy, it is assumed that the individual missiles were targeting the actual structures they destroyed or the nearest structures to their impact locations.
A term often used in precision guided munitions (artillery shells, smart-bombs, missiles, etc.) is the circular error probability (CEP). This value is not derived from actual warfare statistics but from weapons testing or claims from the weapons manufacturer. Instead of using the CEP, we will attempt to derive our own statistics from the small sample size of missile strikes.
Introduction to Ayn Al Asad Airbase
The US occupation forces between 2003 and 2005 changed the name of the airbase from its original 1980s name of Qadisiyah Airbase to the name of Ayn Al Asad, which in Arabic literally either means “Eye of the Lion” or in this case “Lion spring” due to the hydrological spring which is now located within the perimeter of the airbase. This spring feeds the Wadi al Asadi stream valley located in the northern part of the air base and flows eastwards into the Euphrates River as one of its tributaries. The main part of the base originally had a perimeter length of 21 km, not including other secondary or auxiliary bases located in the surrounding areas. The perimeter was expanded by the Americans to 34 km (Figure 1), giving the base a total area size of approximately 63 km2 and making it the largest military base in Iraq by area size. For comparison, this is almost twice the size of the New York City metropolitan area.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

The base consists of two major runways (a third runway is unpaved), several taxiways, a variety of different facilities and buildings for personnel, equipment, communications, including sports and leisure centers with theaters and swimming pools. The base further has soft and hardened aircraft shelters (hangars). The trapezoidal shaped hardened aircraft hangers were built by Yugoslavian companies across many bases in Iraq in the 80s and are nicknamed “Yugos” by the Iraqis. The two hardened runways have a length of approximately 3,990 m. This is almost 1 km shorter than Iraq’s longest aircraft runway of 4,800 m located at Erbil airport, which is also one of the longest in the world. For further historical and general information on the Ayn Al Asad Airbase, see the following websites here ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Asad_Airbase ), here ( https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/al-asad.htm ) and here ( https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/al-asad-airbase-iraq/ ).
Reports indicate that around 15 to 16 missiles were fired from multiple locations inside Iran, with at least 10 missiles fired from bases in the Kermanshah area. If this is indeed the case and assuming a straight line flight path, the missiles could have traveled a distance of approximately 425 km from Kermanshah until reaching the Ayn Al Asad Airbase (Figure 2).


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Airbase missile strike overview
In recent days, analysts have identified a total of nine separate missile impact strikes within the Ayn Al Assad Airbase perimeter. This does not exclude the possibility of other missile impact sites within the base’s perimeter which have not been identified or published online. Seven strikes (number 1 to 7) are found at the facilities located just above the northern taxiway and runway, which according to the imagery, houses a variety of drones and aircraft, including V-22 Ospreys, MQ-1 Predator drones, UH-60 Black Hawks and even (K)C-130 Hercules aircraft for transport and refueling. Another missile impact (number 8) is located on the taxiway between the two paved runways and impact number 9 is found on a taxiway in the southeastern complex of hardened aircraft hangars.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 1 and 2
Strikes number 1 and 2 are approximately 110 m apart. Crater impact nr. 1 is 28 m away from the destroyed soft non reinforced target (possibly a tent structure). Nr. 1 has a small circular blast followed by a secondary semi-circle pattern. The secondary pattern towards the west also gives away the eastern incoming missile direction. Impact nr. 1 is peculiar since it is not a direct hit, but landed 28 m next to the nearest structure. The question is if the Iranians intentionally targeted this point or is it an accuracy issue (off by 28 m) ?
Strike nr. 2 has a similar sized crater and blast pattern as nr. 1 (approx. 27 to 28 m). So it is highly possible that both strikes were conducted using the same missile, with strike nr. 2 having a more obvious blast circle due to it landing exactly in the middle of a series of built soft structures (possible tents). From the measurements we can conclude that strike nr. 2 is more or less dead center on the 5 soft like tent structures and there is no substantial accuracy error.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 3
Site nr. 3 contains two soft structures (possible tents). The missile’s crater and circular blast pattern is located almost in the center of the left building. If this building was deliberately targeted, the error is no more than 3 m. For comparison, this is the average accuracy of a handheld GNSS (GPS) device or a current smartphone, which is very impressive for a warhead landing at more than 2000 km/h (terminal velocity).


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 4 and 5
Sites 4 and 5 are two building (soft structures) next to one-another each hit with what seems to be similar type of missiles with primary blast radius of 8 to 9 m and secondary circles of around 20 to 22 m. If the center of the buildings were targeted, accuracy errors are 6 and 14 m for site 4 and 5, respectively. Again, we do not know if the Iranians deliberately targeted a certain part of the structures.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 6
Strike 6 is located on the left side of a long metal roof soft structure, similar to a steel open warehouse. The left half of the building shows a primary blast circle of approximately 17 m in radius, with an overall damage radius of approximately 25 m. If we assume that the center of the building was the actual target, then we find an error of 51 m. Again, the question is whether the left side of this building was deliberately struck instead of the central part. It’s possible to assume that the Iranians intentionally targeted the western side of the building, having prior knowledge the blast radius of their missiles and the importance of the western side of the building.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 7
Strike number 7 is the most easterly impact site and is found near the end of the northern runway. The impact is located almost exactly in the middle of four soft aircraft shelters. The post-strike image (taken a few hours after the event) shows V-22 Ospreys and MQ-1 predator drones parked just south of the shelters. The first circular blast pattern has a 15 m radius. The incoming direction of the missile caused the complete destruction of the adjacent shelter just left of the impact point, while the shelter to the right was lightly damaged. If we assume the Iranians were targeting the middle point of the second shelter (taken from left to right) than the accuracy error would be about 18 m. However, it is highly likely that the four soft shelters were targeted as a single unit. If that is the case, then the missile was only 7 m off (accuracy error) from the middle point.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 8
If we assume that the Iranians are not randomly lobbing missiles inside the airbase with CEP errors of 100 to 500 m as some of the so called “think tank” experts presume (or have previously presumed in recent years), then we can assume that site nr. 8 was targeting the taxiway located between the two paved runways as previously shown in Figure 3. In the images below we can see an impact crater hitting the side of the taxiway. The impact is 23 m from the center of the taxiway pavement and we use this distance as a measure of accuracy. A clear circular blast pattern is visible and a directional blast cone indicates the incoming missile direction.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 9
Strike nr. 9 is the second strike on a taxiway and is the most southern impact site situated in a hardened hangar complex. The impact crater is located almost exactly on one of the corner points of a paved T-junction. If the Iranians purposely targeted this exact point, then the accuracy error could possibly be no more than 2 meters. However, if the target was the actual center of the T-junction, then the error is approximately 11 m. Like in site nr. 8, we see a circular blast with a cone like fan shaped pattern giving the incoming missile direction.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Assessment and conclusions
There are different ways to assess the accuracy of these strikes based on the fact that we do not have the exact coordinates the Iranians wanted  to target. It is not very realistic to assume that the Iranians were perfectly able to target the exact coordinates they intended to hit with perfect accuracy. There is however uncertainty in whether the Iranians intentionally missed some of their targets. The abovementioned observations clearly show a pattern of very accurate strikes on individually targeted buildings/structures. There are two most likely scenarios:
  1. The Iranians intentionally targeted and destroyed some targets. Accuracy errors occurred causing some missiles to miss the exact center point of their targets, with other targets being completely missed.
  2. The Iranians intentionally destroyed some targets and intentionally missed some others.
The table shows the estimated range in accuracy for each of the 9 strike locations based on our observations and interpretation. The green numbers are the most likely errors in meters, while red numbers indicating the less likely errors based on our assumptions of what the Iranians intended to target. An average missile target accuracy of 11 m is based on what are the most likely intended targets (or in other words the most likely scenario). The statistical spread of this small sample size (of only 9 strikes) is 8.5 m. So the lower and upper limits of the accuracy, based on the standard deviation, is estimated to range between 2.5 and 19.5 m. The median value, which is somewhat comparable to the CEP, is 7 m. This means that half of the strikes landed within 7 m. Finally, the average blast (damage) circle is estimated at 21 m.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Let’s visualize these numbers and assume that these numbers can be used in circles. The figure shows a MQ-1 predator drone theoretically being targeted. The yellow line indicates the 11 m mean accuracy value. This is where missiles will land on average. The red line gives the 7 m median value where 50 % of the strikes are found inside this circle. The subsequent figure also includes examples of blast circle (average radius of 21 m) locations in respect to the target.


How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq
How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Assuming the estimation of the intended targets and measurements are realistic, an Iranian missile accuracy ranging on average between 2.5 and 19.5 m is very impressive to say the least and indicates the use of advanced terminal guidance technology (guiding a missile in its terminal phase). Reports have suggested that the Fateh-313 tactical short range ballistic missile (SRBM) was used in the Ayn Al Asad Airbase attack, with other reports suggesting that the Qiam 1 was also used in the attack, including on Erbil Airport. The Fateh-313 is an upgraded Fateh-110, with an increased missile range up to 500 km. Terminal guidance technologies are most likely to be combined, including inertial guidance systems (INS), GNSS systems and possibly electro-optical guidance.

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Sunday, 12 April 2020

الانتصار اليمنيّ لا يقف عند حدود الحرب الدائرة







يبدو بوضوح أن محاولات منظمة الأمم المتحدة لإعادة إحياء “مفاوضات السلام” بين القوى المتحاربة في اليمن تصطدم بخلاف كبير على مفهوم هذه الحرب.. ففيما ترى الأمم المتحدة على لسان أمينها العام انطونيو غوتيريش أنها حرب داخلية بين مكونات يمنية، ويساندها في هذه القراءة الأميركيون والبرطانيون وما يسمّى “التحالف العربي” الجامع بين السعودية والإمارات بتعاون عسكري غير رسمي مع السودان وباكستان و”اسرائيل”، والبحرية المصرية.
يرى اليمنيون انها عدوان كبير تشنه منذ خمس سنوات متواصلة، السعودية والإمارات بدعم غربي وعربي وإسرائيلي تستهدف القضاء على قوات يمنية أصلية تدافع عن بلادها بالتعاون مع الجيش الوطني اليمني وذلك لاحتلال كامل اليمن ورهنه لخدمة النفوذ الأميركي الكبير على مستويي الموقع وأكثر والمصالح السعودية ـ الإماراتية ضمن اطار شبه جزيرة العرب وجوارها.
لذلك بدا هذا الخلاف واضحاً في وثيقة الأمم المتحدة الداعية للعودة الى المفاوضات بين الأفرقاء الداخليين على اساس انها حرب بين قوى داخلية، وتجاهلت أن الأطراف المتحاربة هي قوات سعودية ـ إماراتية مدعومة بمرتزقة من عشرات البلدان وإسناد جوي أميركي ـ بريطاني وبحري من مصر و”إسرائيل” ومجمل دول الغرب مقابل قوات تنطلق من “شرعية صنعاء” وتضم الجيش اليمني وانصار الله والمؤتمر الشعبي.
وفي ما تغطي القوات الأجنبية المهاجمة، مجموعات داخلية ضعيفة موالية للرئيس السابق المخلوع عبد ربه منصور هادي وميليشيات ذات ميول انفصالية في الجنوب تمسك قوات صنعاء من جهتها بشرعية جماهيرية أتاحت لها الصمود أمام هذا العدوان الخارجي في الخمس سنوات الأخيرة، وسمحت لها التقدم نحو الوسط والجنوب والمناطق المحاذية للحدود السعودية في الشمال والشرق والمحافظة على الساحل الغربي في منطقة الحديدة.
هناك حقائق تبعث على السخرية من نظريات الأمم المتحدة، فبالتزامن مع بياناتها، حدثت عمليات إنزال أميركية وبريطانية لمقاتلين وأسلحة في مناطق رأس العارة في لحج وسواحل الشخر في حضرموت قرب مقار لشركة “أوكسن” وعرماء في محافظة شبوه.
الا يكشف هذا الأمر عن هوية اصحاب العدوان على اليمن؟ فبالإضافة الى هذا الأمر، فإن الذي أعلن عن وقف القتال لأسبوعين هو المتحدث السعودي باسم “التحالف العربي” الذي يهاجم اليمن منذ خمس سنوات وهو العميد في الجيش السعودي تركي المالكي ومندوب عن منصور هادي بالإضافة الى مقابلتين تلفزيونيتين، الاولى للسفير الأميركي في اليمن كريستوفر هتل والثاني لنظيره البريطاني مايكل آرون.
هذان المندوبان أشادا بالدور السعودي التاريخي في اليمن الذي يقدم الكثير من المساعدات المادية والمكرمات لليمنيين على مدى التاريخ واعتبرا بخبث أن الصراع داخلي ومناطقي، ما يكشف عن طبيعة التوجهات المقبلة لقوى العدوان وما تريده من المفاوضات المرتقبة.
إن المحصلة الحالية للعدوان السعودي ـ الإماراتي على اليمن فاقت عن مئتي الف شهيد وجريح من رجال ونساء واطفال وتدمير بنى حضارية تعود الى آلاف السنين أي قبل تأسيس السعودية والإمارات بثلاثة آلاف سنة على الأقل، كما تسبق تأسيس الولايات المتحدة الأميركية نفسها بـ 2800 سنة على الأقل.
فهل يمكن تصديق السفير البريطاني مايكل آرون بدفاعه عن السعودية، وصولاً إلى سؤاله اذا كانت أموال آل سعود تساوي هذه الدماء اليمنية التي تواصل الدفاع عن بلادها في وجه كل أنواع المستعمرين قبل الاسلام وبعده؟
لذلك، فإن مشروع السلام الأممي الذي عمل عليه طويلاً المندوب الأممي الى اليمن غريفيث، يحمل أهدافاً متنوّعة عميقة بمظهر خارجي مخادع أي أنه يُظهر الدسم مخفياً السموم الكامنة، كما تقول الامثال الشعبية.
أما الإغراء الأممي هنا، فهو عرض السلام المنشود بعد سنوات خمس من قتال صعب انهك جميع الأطراف، وقد لا يكون هذا كافياً بالنسبة لحركة جهادية كانصار الله تبدو مستعدة من اجل تحرير بلادها لقتال مفتوح زمنياً، لذلك أطلقت الأمم المتحدة إغراء آخر يقول بتثبيت وقف القتال عند الخطوط الحالية للحرب. وهذا بلغة السياسة العميقة اعتراف اممي بريطاني ـ أميركي بالحدود الحالية لدولة صنعاء، على قاعدة اعتراف اممية ـ أميركية ـ بريطانية وبالتالي سعودية ـ إماراتية بقانونية هذه الدولة وشرعيتها الدستورية والأممية، إلا أن السفير البريطاني أبقى على هذه النقطة مجالاً للتفاوض كي يستحصل مقابلاً له في تدعيم نفوذ بلاده في الاستراتيجية اليمنية والثروات.
فبدا هذا السفير الماكر وكأنه يقدّم شمالي اليمن لأنصار الله بسخاء بريطاني غير مسبوق، علماً أن بنادق المجاهدين اليمنيين هي التي حررت هذه المناطق وليست ترهات هذا البريطاني.
هذا يعني أن القوى الأميركية ـ البريطانية استسلمت لحقائق الميدان العصية على التغيير، وأخذت بعين الاعتبار الانكشاف السعودي ـ الإماراتي ووصولهما الى مرحلة التراجع والخسارة، فحاولت عبر الأمم المتحدة الدفع نحو سلام مزعوم يستند الى ما كانت مفاوضات ستوكهولم السويدية تسعى إليه. وهذا يعني تقسيم جنوبي اليمن الى كانتونات تعكس المطامع الرباعية للفريق الأميركي ـ البريطاني الاستراتيجي الاهداف والسعودي ـ الإماراتي الباحث عن النفوذ العربي وتعطيل ولادة دولة يمنية قوية تستطيع الاستحواذ على دور أساسي في شبه جزيرة العرب انطلاقاً من العديد الكبير لسكانها، الوطنية اليمنية التاريخية والموقع الاستراتيجي المتحكم عبر باب المندب والمحيط الهندي بعشرين بالمئة من التجارة العالمية وحركة مرور نحو 18 مليون برميل نفط يومياً، هذا من دون احتساب ثروات اليمن من النفط والغاز ودورها في المكانة الإقليمية والإنماء الداخلي.
بأي حال هناك حرص غربي على تجنيب السعودية الهزيمة في اليمن، خصوصاً في مأرب لأن أي تحرير لها يعني اجتياحاً يمنياً للعمق السعودي بما يعنيه من تداعيات على مستوى العلاقة بين آل سعود والسعوديين، خصوصاً في زمان جائحة الكورونا التي يبدو انها أصابت فريقاً من الأمراء الفاعلين، الأمر الذي يتطلب أي هدنة، تريح هذه العائلة، وتمنع عنها الانهيار وتفجير علاقاتها بسكان جزيرة العرب المنصاعين لها بالخوف والذعر ومفهوم الإطاعة بالقوة والارهاب.
فهل تنجح خطة الأمم المتحدة؟ لن يقبل انصار الله بهدنة لأسبوعين، ومشروعهم ينطوي على مفاوضات تنتهي بإعادة بناء دولة يمنية تطرد كل انواع المحتلين، وتعيد ربط اليمنيين ببعضهم بعضاً على قاعدة مشروع سياسي له بعدان: انماء وطني داخلي، ودور اقليمي في إطار حلف عربي ـ مشرقي يعكس الأهمية الدائمة لليمن في تفاعلات منطقة الشرق الأوسط.
فيديوات متعلقة





اقرأ أيضا

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

ABU MALEK AL-TALI RETURNS TO HAY’AT TAHRIR AL-SHAM AFTER MEETING WITH AL-JULANI

South Front

Abu Malek Al-Tali Returns To Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham After Meeting With Al-Julani

Abu Malek al-Tali, a prominent Jihadist that recently resigned from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has reportedly returned to the ranks of the al-Qaeda-affiliated group.
Al-Tali left HTS on April 7, claiming in a statement that he was being kept away from the group’s shifting policies. Back then, some sources revealed that al-Tali had problems with close aides of the terrorist group’s leader, Abu Mohamad al-Julani, who was also ignoring him.
On April 10, sources close to HTS reported al-Tali’s return to the group, citing Abu Maria al-Qahtani, an Iraqi commander within HTS.
“With regards to Sheikh Abu Malek, we want to announce that our brother has returned to the group, thank God, after meeting with al-Sheikh [Abu Mohamad al-Julani],” the sources quoted al-Qahtani as saying.
Takieddine Omar, a public relations official of HTS, confirmed to pro-opposition news outlet Enab Baladi that al-Tali had indeed returned to the terrorist group’s ranks.
Al-Tali, whose real name is Jamal Hassan Zayniyah, was the top commander of HTS in the region of Qalamun (on the Syrian-Lebanese border) in the period from 2012 to 2017. The terrorist lost all of his battles against the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Hezbollah.
The return of al-Tali will likely calm down the tension within HTS. Al-Julani may have opted  to return al-Tali to avoid an internal backlash against him.
MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Who Are You to Call Me a Virus?

By Jeremy Salt
Trump Delivers Remarks During a Coronavirus Update Briefing 01d3b
So the actor Alec Baldwin thinks Trump is a virus. An interesting idea, the virus as a metaphor. Some would say the US itself is a virus, taking millions of lives in its endless wars. Yet others would say we, homo sapiens, are the virus. Imagine how we must look from a million miles away. Squiggling organisms hanging on to a clod of earth as it whirls through space.
Corona is only doing what viruses do. They latch on to living bodies, and die or mutate into different forms when the host can no longer sustain them, which is the state the host of the organism known as homo sapiens, Planet Earth, seems to be rapidly approaching. We adapt to changing circumstances, as all viruses do, but are we are reaching the point when it will be too late to adapt?
Like any virus, we are consuming our host, and never more greedily than in the past 100 years.We are being warned all the time that when the planet is ecologically dead, we will die too. We know this but, riddled with another virus, consumerism, we cannot stop ourselves. We take what we can while we can, just like the viral microdots colonizing our bodies as we once colonized Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Those affected died in their millions. We in the ‘developed world’ lived off their poverty and plundered resources. Now it is our bodies being plundered by an enemy we cannot even see.
We are already being told there will be no return to the normal. Of course, there is no static normal any more than there is a static ‘human nature.’ ‘Normal’ and ‘human nature’ depend on geography, education, cultural conditioning, socio-economic structures and natural or man-made disasters such as war and earthquakes. Both change as circumstances change. Additionally, what is normal in one society is not necessarily regarded as normal somewhere else. ‘Normal’ is what we perceive as being normal, what we are taught to believe is normal but that changes, too. Who in the 19th century could have believed that governments around the world would pass legislation allowing men to marry each other?
Our greedy leaching of the planet’s resources may be hastening the frequency and increasing the scale of natural disasters. After all, how much battering can any fixed object take? Hit a rock often enough and hard enough and it will break. So will iron. While earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis have been recorded throughout history, sinkholes appear to be relatively new. They certainly weren’t in the news three or four decades ago. Could they be a sign that the tormented earth’s crust just can’t take it anymore?
Accelerating consumption requires accelerating industrialization to meet demand. We in the so-called ‘developed world’ know that even if we can drink clean water and breathe relatively fresh air, countless millions elsewhere don’t have either. They live in Africa or they work in the factories of China and Southeast Asia that produce the goods enabling us to lead the good life. Their cheap labor subsidizes the way we live. Their air, rivers, and seas are heavily polluted because of the absence of effective environmental safeguards in their world. This is not accidental or coincidental but the inevitable consequence of economic ‘globalization.’
When the normal gives way to the new normal, what will we learn, something or nothing? The fallout is bound to be substantial. The virus has again exposed the corrupt underpinnings of capitalism. This has happened many times before but we still don’t learn the lesson. Capitalism commodifies everything. Much of what used to have a moral value now has only a market value. Education is still regarded as a right and a necessity, as it certainly is for a corporate sector needing workers and consumers, but the quality frequently depends on money. As for health care, in most ‘liberal democracies’ the citizen only gets as much as he or she can afford. Public health in the US is frequently provided in hospitals starved of staff and resources. This is the same population the capitalist order wants to work and consume endlessly but is not prepared to pay for health services to make sure it can do both.
Globalization appeared as the latest evidence of the adaptability of the capitalist order. It was based on the ‘deregulation’ of economies, which added up to the clearing away of all global obstacles in the way of corporate profits. National borders were turned into lines on the map and governments into the regional satraps of corporations, which would make their offers and go somewhere else if their terms were not accepted. As they had the money, they had the power.
Societies were turned against each in the interests of profit. With tariff barriers dropped, the corporations closed their factories and headed for countries where labor was cheap and the workforce controlled by anti-strike legislation and the competition for jobs. In these countries, they could produce goods at a fraction of the production costs in their home countries. They could then export their goods back to the home country and sell them as if they had been made there.
This is not just what governments allowed but encouraged. They opened the door to the flight of manufacturing industry. In cities across the US, Britain, Australia, wherever one looked, once-thriving factories were abandoned and the people who worked in them left without jobs and possessed of skills employable only in other factories that had been closed down. The privatization of essential government services swung into effect at the same time. Given that no risk was involved in the supply of water, gas and electricity, this was no more than the transfer of vast amounts of public money into private pockets. Social services built up with public money over more than a century disappeared almost overnight. The fine old buildings from which these services were provided were sold off for corporate use.
These shifts were harnessed to the destruction of labor unions and the notion of ‘enterprise bargaining’ which left the individual worker in search or a higher salary or better working conditions to face the corporation on his or her own. This was like putting a bantamweight into the ring to fight a heavyweight. Herbert Spencer’s rugged 19th-century individualism and the jungle rules of social Darwinism underpinned the new order, summed up by Margaret Thatcher in her remark that “there is no such thing as society.” Economically, of course, for the corporations to take maximum advantage of the new/old circumstances, society – a word denoting a small or large human community working together for the common good and forming associations to protect common interests – there could be no such thing as what society used to be.
Alighting on new hosts, the virus of globalization left the old host in ruins. The rust belt in the US is the evidence. Factories were closed down en masse and cities fell into ruin. Livelihoods had already been swept from under the feet of blue and white-collar workers when the financial institutions collapsed in 2008/9. The endless privatization of profit was succeeded by the socialization of loss. It was the people who had to pay for the corruption and malpractice endemic in financial institutions, through the loss of their jobs and homes and the siphoning-off of their taxes. The res publica – the ‘public thing’ – had shown the people where their government’s first loyalties lay.
According to Mike Collins, writing in Forbes business magazine, “The operating principles of the big banks is a cesspool of greed, [lack of] ethics and criminal intent.” Insider trading was a large part of the picture, so was money-laundering with the US branch of HSBC bank, which was found to have laundered $881 billion for Mexican drug cartels. The rating agencies (Moody’s and Standard and Poor) giving a AAA rating to the banks granting a flood of unrepayable sub-prime mortgages were paid by the same banks. By 2015, Mike Collins estimated, the bailout had cost not the $700 billions the people were originally told but $16.8 trillion (Mike Collins, ‘The Big Bank Bailout,’ Forbes, July 14, 2015.)
There had to be some sacrificial lambs (Lehman Brothers) but with the help of ‘government’ money – the people’s money – the rest were soon back on their feet, making mega profits without having to pay back one cent of the torrents of cash that had pulled them out of the ditch. What better metaphor can there be for such rapacious capitalism than that of the virus? Having eaten its way through society – the host body – it was then given a new lease of life by a government elected to protect society.
The virus is a metaphor that has no limits. All living things consume to live. Something has to die so they can live. Some people eat to live. Others seem to live to eat. They are encouraged to over-consume by the addictive ingredients deliberately fed into the food and drink chain by producers. An obese population is an unhealthy population but one that keeps returning healthy profits even as medical costs soar that the corporations don’t have to pay. The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that 42.7 percent of the US population was obese in 2017/18, with the prevalence of obesity increasing 1999-2000 from 30.5 to 42.4 percent. The annual cost of treating obesity was $147 billion. Thus, while Africans and many others starve, many Americans are eating until they practically burst.
Extreme violence is another aspect of the American demographic. The viral nature of capitalism requires a police and a miitary to suppress discontent at home and open up new territories abroad. Profit-seeking can know no territorial limits. Like any virus, it will spread as fast and as far as it can. Eduardo Galeano’s ‘open veins’ of Latin America were veins opened up in every part of the non-European world. The prize was natural resources, the means were the cycles of invasion and occupation that have continued for centuries down to our time. When Donald Trump says of Syria’s oil that it is ours “and we will do with it what we want” he was only expressing the logic that has underlain imperialism all along, if rarely so crudely expressed.
Most wars have an economic motive, usually dressed up as what we are doing for you, not what we are doing to you. The wars on Iraq were not only about oil, as they were designed to pulverize a country regarded as threatening to ‘order’ and ‘stability’ as defined by the US and more generally ‘the West.’ The language was the same in the 19th century and between then and now, so were the consequences for the native population: mass destruction and death. By such means were ‘civilization’ and progress preserved. Only the principal actors (Britain and France in the 19th century, the US now) and the technology have changed, the latter allowing the invader to kill and crush more comprehensively.
American violence has a viral quality, intrinsic to the organism from the beginning of European settlement. Once the native Indian population had been suppressed, other threatening elements had to be contained and destroyed as they arose. As blackness threatened whiteness, Afro-American were enslaved, segregated, lynched and burnt alive until finally granted the rights and opportunities that came as the birth right of white Americans. Random killings by police, the massively disproportionate black prison population and the activism of white supremacists stand as the evidence even now that the virus of racism has not been suppressed.
Viruses always move on. Suppressed by a vaccine, they will mutate into a slightly different form and take root again in the host body. This is what the world is experiencing with the coronavirus, which surfaced just after the financial institutions began to plunge into a deeper abyss than 2007/8. According to the New York Times, the US administration is now contemplating “a vast financial bailout that would dwarf the federal government’s response to the 2008 crisis … the scale of the problem is unlike anything Washington has ever faced before.” This bailout “could” top $2 trillion and not the initial $18.3 billion approved by Congress. (‘Washington Weighs Big Bailout to Help US Economy Survive Coronavirus,’ New York Times, March 18, 2020. Note that the bailout is designed to rescue the ‘economy’ from the virus, not from the failures of a socio-economic system which has sent to the country to the wall time after time).
No questions as to where the money is going will be allowed despite the Freedom of Information Act: as the virus is allowing state governments to confine people to their homes, there can be no public protests. The police and national guard will be on hand to suppress those who defy the ban. Memories of outrage at the bilking of the public in 2008 will account for these precautions.
As one commentator has observed, in 2008 Wall Street was bailed out and Main Street landed with the bill. A repetition could ignite a public backlash with “potentially catastrophic consequences” (‘Washington Weighs Big Bailout,’ New York Times) so the bailout this time has to be handled with greater finesse, with more of the cash allocated to the hard-pressed citizenry. Even as the financial crisis broke, however, the familiar chicanery, insider trading and the timely selling-off of shares by corporations, was resurfacing.
Can this be mere coincidence, the appearance of one virus to hide the latest ravages of another? The corporate media dismisses the very notion as a “conspiracy theory,” as if governments do not scheme, plot and conspire all the time, against each other, against their mutual enemies and frequently against their own people. Within the realm of possibilities, the possibilities of an accidental release of the virus or of foul play by a government or rogue elements inside a government at least have to be allowed. We still don’t know who was behind the assassination of John Kennedy or the attacks of 9/11. How long will it be before we know the truth or, like these two other world historical events, will we ever know it?
The war on terror having run its course, the war on the virus has followed without a break, allowing governments to build on the ‘homeland security’ edifice constructed after 9/11. Outside fiction, police and the military everywhere are being handed unprecedented powers of arrest, surveillance, and control. In the US and elsewhere millions of people have been subjected to ‘lockdown,’ generally a term applied to a prison after a riot. Whatever a government decides to do, whatever measures it takes to bail out the financial institutions once again, the people will not be allowed into the street to protest.Panicked, fearful of the enemy they cannot see, terrorized by the media, confused by contradictory evidence, and baffled by statistics open to more than one reading, they are doing what they are being told. They have been too effectively frightened to go into the streets. Only the virus is in the headlines, allowing the bailout to proceed quietly behind the scenes.
We live in a world of viruses. Emptying the planet’s natural resources and preying on other species to feed ourselves, we behave no differently ourselves. Eventually, someone will come up with a cure for the coronavirus but who is going to cure us? We have to do it ourselves, but will we?

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!