Saturday 15 August 2020

A quick update on Belarus

A quick update on Belarus

The Saker

August 12, 2020

A quick update on the events in Belarus:

To make a long story short, two major developments have happened:

  1. My guess is that by now Lukashenko has now figured (again) that the West wants him dead AND he has figured out that he has been conned by the Ukie SBU and, most likely, elements inside his own KGB.
  2. The Belarusian security forces (riot police and KGB) have ruthlessly cracked down on the opposition and right now they seem to be in control of the situation.

I base my first conclusion on the clear and sudden change of tone of Lukashenko who, yet again, praises Putin and Russia and who is now playing nice hoping that the Kremlin will forget what just happened (it won’t)

As for the second conclusion, now that the Internet has been reopened (Belarus and the West accuse each other of having disconnected it), there is a lot of media (video and images) coming out of Minsk and other Belarusian  cities and it appears that the following has happened:

While many people did sincerely and peacefully protest, a number of criminal elements were recruited (for US dollars) and they instantly attacked the security forces with great skill and violence: cops were lynched, some were shot (at least one), agent provocateurs even ran over cops with their cars, one guy was caught with 10’000 USD in the streets during the riots and his explanation was “this is my money” (as if anybody in his right mind would carry large sums of money in the midst of riots), others were caught with knives, baseball bats, Molotov cocktails, radios, flash-bang grenades (from Poland), fireworks, etc. etc. etc.  Many of the hardcore rioters have multiple criminal convictions in the past and were well known by the authorities.  Last but not least, some of these rioters had Ukie-style Nazi tattoos all over their bodies.  What else is new….?

Predictably, the riot police retaliated in kind and started beating the crap out of anybody breaking the law and, alas, also beating the crap left and right of people who were not doing anything illegal (including severely beaten up journos, including Russian ones).

It appears that for the time being, the Belarusian KGB has the upper hand and that many of the subversives which were caught by the KGB were run by the Ukraine and Poland.

As for the main opposition figure (officially, she got 10% of the vote), she has now left for Lithuania (probably because her husband’s curators are located there).

Conclusion:

While the plot to create a major crisis between Belarus and Russia has been foiled thanks to the Russian FSB (молодцы ребята!), the plot to overthrow Lukashenko is still ongoing and might very well succeed.  For one thing, people are really angry at the violence of the Belarusian cops.  Second, the Belarusian economy is hurting and Russia cannot forever “carry” Belarus on her back. Third Lukashenko has been in power for way too long and for all this time he “sat between two chairs” – this has to change and it will change, the only question is will it change for the better or for the worse?

At the very least, Moscow should now demand that Lukashenko fire his Russia-hating foreign Minister, Makei, and the head of the Belarusian KGB, Vakulchik, (if these men had any sense of honor, they would immediately resign by themselves but, clearly, they do not…) and renew the talks on fully uniting Belarus and Russia.

As for Lukashenko, he has to put his actions were his mouth is and take retaliatory sanctions against the USA and the EU.  Now, obviously, Belarus has no economic levers to use against the West, but what Minks could and SHOULD do is to reduce the size of all the key diplomatic missions, embassies, consulates, etc. from the worst offending countries: USA, the Ukraine and Poland.  This would not only be fair, it would be prudent as it is 100% clear now that these countries stand behind the current crisis and they will do all they can to turn a (comparatively heavenly) Belarus into the kind of Banderastan they turned the long-suffering Ukraine into.

Finally, it appears that the opposition (law abiding and other) are now talking stock of their apparent initial failure and a regrouping for the upcoming week-end.

At this point, the AngloZionist Empire does not need to pretend to like Lukashenko anymore (that plan has failed), so they can do something which they are very good at: provoke more and more violence, forcing the state to resort to violent repression (that is the “action is in the reaction” tactic) and then all that is needed is what they have successfully done in Riga, Vilnius, Moscow (1993), Kiev, Aleppo and many other places: send in professional snipers to shoot at BOTH sides, thereby creating a civil war.

Will the Belarusian KGB be capable of intercepting all the teams which will probably be sent in?

Maybe.  The Belarusian KGB is, unlike its Ukie SBU counterpart, mostly formed of competent professionals who had all the time needed to carefully study what happened in the Ukraine, how it happened and why it happened.  So they can probably keep control of the situation for a while longer, but it is anybody’s guess for how long.

Personally, I can only repeat that I have zero confidence in Lukashenko and I don’t believe that an independent Belarus is viable.  The only solution I see is a full integration of Belarus into Russia.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

China Newsbrief & Sitrep

 China Newsbrief & Sitrep

August 12, 2020

By Godfree Roberts from his newsletter

This week we focus mainly on China’s development and business.

We still see signs of an unrestricted and type of unformed war on China that is described by many names, examples cold war or, hybrid war.  The main characteristic of this war is where nothing that disrupts the enemy is off limits.

Despite an unprecedented downturn in US-China relations during a pandemic, US businesses are not leaving the China market. This was a major finding of an annual survey of members released today by the US-China Business Council (USCBC), a trade group representing more than 200 businesses, many of them global brands with decades of China experience.  

https://www.uschina.org/media/press/pandemic-and-politics-aside-us-china-trade-ties-continue

Extracts from Here Comes China

Excellent overview – How Did China Succeed? | Joseph E. Stiglitz  on China’s Economic System

Although Stiglitz is a world banker, he holds different views from the trademark, neoliberal Washington consensus, specifically an economic ideology holding that while people should own the value they produce themselves, economic value derived from land (including all natural resources and natural opportunities) should belong equally to all members of society.  His wide overview here on the growth of China makes sense and is easy listening.

China’s central bank has taken the lead in digital currencies. What does it mean for businesses?  by Jemma Xu and Dan Prud’homme

Outside  China, digital currencies are fraught with incredible risk. In this void, China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payments offers the public confidence unobtainable by private digital currencies. DCEP is itself a stablecoin, but one backed 1:1 by the PBoC with fiat Chinese yuan/renminbi. Its system follows a “two layer” approach. First, and critically, because it is a sovereign digital currency, the PBoC is the only issuing party. Second, to expeditiously diffuse the currency, the central bank issues DCEP to select retail banks and non-financial institutions (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, and Union Pay) in China with strong pre-existing mobile payment networks, who then merely distribute the currency to the general public. Businesses across China will be required by law to accept DCEP as payment.

Besides the regulatory legitimacy, many factors position DCEP to become the world’s most widely used digital currency:

  • the Chinese state’s track record of rapid institutional innovation;
  • Chinese public support of institutional experimentation;
  • Chinese firms’ strong competitiveness in digital ecosystems and
  • capabilities to quickly adapt to changing technological paradigms and institutions;
  • a massive Chinese population who quickly adopts new digital technologies, and
  • lead the world in adopting mobile payment applications.

Although central banks in several other countries have also been studying digital currencies, none have taken the lead to actually develop and rollout a CBDC at the scale occurring in China. DCEP will be used for purchases in all sectors across the country. To start, as of mid-2020, DCEP has been piloted in the Chinese cities of Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an – potentially reaching over 42 million people, more than Canada’s entire population. Elsewhere in China, DCEP is already in the process of being piloted in the restaurant and hospitality sectors, with foreign multinationals such as McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Subway already signing up to participate. Further, DCEP trials are already being conducted around China to reimburse public sector employees’ travel costs. Yet other pilot initiatives, such as a commitment to use DCEP at venues for large-scale upcoming events in Beijing, are in place.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government recently proposed the creation of a regional digital currency backed by the Chinese RMB/yuan, Japanese yen, South Korean won, and Hong Kong dollar – with DCEP at the centre. And China’s multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) offers a network to extend DCEP in countries around the globe.

Businesses should prepare for DCEP’s rollout in two main ways. First, they must ensure that they have appropriate infrastructure in place to accommodate DCEP, such as digital wallets. Contracts with third-party financial custodians can also be helpful. On the upside, to facilitate swift legal compliance with DCEP – considering that its acceptance is being required by law in China – the Chinese authorities may integrate DCEP with popular existing digital wallets already widely used by many businesses in China, namely Alipay and Wechat Pay.

Second, businesses may need to explore interoperability options when conducting cross-border trade. Such action may be needed in the longer term if DCEP leads to an alternative international payments system vis-à-vis the current US-led system, which is a probable prospect.
Meanwhile, firms who timely prepare for China’s DCEP rollout can seize several significant opportunities. First, as previously alluded to, the expansion of DCEP will facilitate the internationalisation of the yuan/renminbi. In doing so, the Chinese currency will provide a strong alternative institution to rival the current USD-dominated international payments system.

Third, by facilitating direct transactions between digital wallets, DCEP will eliminate sizeable banking clearing and settlements costs. In other words, ‘payment is settlement’ with no need for separate clearing and settlement processes.

Fourth, DCEP will offer firms new ways of raising capital and secondary trading via the issuance of digital securities and disintermediated trading on exchanges. Digital securities are regulated financial instruments such as equities or bonds where the transaction and shareholder details are recorded on the blockchain ledger. As a stable currency, DCEP will be used to reduce or eliminate the clearing and settlement processes associated with trading digital securities on secondary exchanges. In turn, this will provide firms and investors easier access to digital financial instruments.

Fifth, DCEP’s development will catalyse fintech innovation, giving rise to hybrid products that draw on both traditional markets and digital currencies. Greater numbers of innovative structured products are appearing in the digital currencies market, where the underlying asset is a native digital currency, such as Bitcoin, but the payoffs are based on traditional structured products. DCEP will serve as a reliable alternative underlying-asset in the future, stimulating the creation of more hybrid financial products.
Fifth, and not least, aggregate demand may rise as a result of DCEP’s rollout. DCEP adoption will allow governments to rapidly deploy “helicopter money” to the public without requiring bank accounts. This will empower the previously unbanked to form a new group of consumers.[MORE]

Debt – People criticizing China’s debt see only the debit side of the ledger. If they look at the credit side, they would see offsetting assets. One of those assets is the $20 billion Three Gorges Dam, which generates 100 billion KWh which it sells for US$0.084/KwH, bringing in $8.4 billion every year. Three Gorges tours earn another $3 billion, and flood mitigation and irrigation enhancement save another $3 billion, as the current flooding demonstrates. That’s valuable debt!

China pledged to invest $5.8 billion in the construction of the Moscow-Kazan High Speed Railway. The railway will be extended to China through Kazakhstan. The total cost of the Moscow-Kazan high speed railroad project is $21.4 billion. [MORE]

The Caspian Sea is becoming an alternative to the Suez for shipping between Europe and China, and a great deal of activity is taking place there. Four major Belt & Road routes and one significant Indian route make up the five East-West intersections that the Caspian is shortly to provide, with the potential for a sixth should plans to create a canal between the Caspian and Black Seas come to fruition. [Download Chris Devonshire-Ellis’ Report]

The Port of Beirut poses the biggest geostrategic threat to American power projection because China’s Silk Road is fast creeping towards the docks at Beirut Port. The US, having recently forced Israel to cancel its Haifa rail contract with China, has dampened the Chinese advance in the eastern Mediterranean, and what remains now in the path of the US is the Beirut Port. The US must either invade it to block the Chinese geostrategic mission creep, or else destroy it.[MORE]


See everyone next week for the regular Here Comes China newsletter.  It is a pleasure to work with Godfree and to collate the main points for The Saker Blog.

amarynth


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

All Vaccines Are Unsafe. Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 Vaccine Now Available

By Stephen Lendman

Source

On August 11, Russia registered the first vaccine for use against COVID-19, named Sputnik V. More on this development below.

Toxins in vaccines make them hazardous to human health.

Time and again, they cause diseases they’re promoted as protection against.

Nothing in medical science indicates that vaccines are safe.

They all contain harmful to health mercury, aluminum, formaldehyde, phenoxyethanol (antifreeze), MSG, and squalene adjuvants that weaken and can destroy the human immune system, making it vulnerable to many annoying to life-threatening illnesses.

Annually, the US Vaccine Adverse Reporting System (VAERS) reports thousands of serious adverse vaccine reactions, including many deaths and disabling disabilities.

Virtually none of this is reported by establishment media.

Far too often, vaccines are ineffective or not effective enough. They’re an unreliable way to prevent illness and disease.

Proper health, personal hygiene, and sanitation practices are far more effective than mass-vaxxing.

An earlier WHO report said disease and mortality rates in developing countries were closely related to hygiene and dietary practices, unrelated to immunization programs.

In the West and elsewhere, no evidence links vaccines with declines in infectious diseases.

Although vaccines stimulate antibody production, no evidence suggests that alone assures immunity.

Squalene adjuvants and other toxins in vaccines harm the human immune system, making it susceptible to numerous illnesses and diseases that range from very annoying to life threatening.

The notion of herd immunity from mass-vaxxing is Big Pharma promoted rubbish.

Numerous industry promoted “facts” about vaccines were later proved false.

Childhood disease dangers are greatly exaggerated to scare parents into getting their children vaccinated with unsafe drugs.

Following the introduction of the Salk polio vaccine, large outbreaks of the disease were reported in the US.

Years later, Jonas Salk admitted that mass inoculations caused most polio cases.

Even when no adverse reactions occur days or even weeks after being inoculated, evidence shows longer-term problems developed.

They include the disease vaxxing is supposed to protect against, chronic headaches, rashes, skin lesions, seizures, autism, anemia, multiple sclerosis, ALS, cancer, diabetes, and many other health issues.

US federal, state, and local immunization policy is driven by politics and profit potential, not science or concern for human health and welfare.

According to earlier industry estimates before coronavirus outbreaks occurred this year, the market potential for vaccines was estimated at around $60 billion annually.

If when available, a full COVID-19 vax treatment of all Americans would have a market potential dollar volume of around $150 billion of near-all profit, according to one estimate.

The global market potential is much greater — why the race is on to cash in big.

Noted vaccine expert Dr. Viera Schiebner minced no words, saying the following:

“There is no evidence whatsoever of the ability of vaccines to prevent any diseases.” 

“To the contrary, there is a great wealth of evidence that they cause serious side effects.”

Many other scientific experts agree.

Russia’s Sputnik V is the first vaccine available for use against COVID-19 — registered by the Russian Ministry of Health on August 11.

Developed by Russia’s  Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, it followed over 20 years of vaccine research, according to Sechenov University’s Institute for Translational Medicine and Biotechnology director Vadim Tarasov.

Technology used to develop Sputnik V is based upon adenovirus, the common cold.

Tarasov explained that the vaccine may not entirely stop COVID-19 from spreading. He claimed it’ll make symptoms milder, adding:

“We can really talk about a breakthrough as our country has shown itself to be one of the leaders in the global pharmaceutical industry due to the fact that it has retained and developed new competencies in drug development.”

Russia’s sputnikvaccine.com website explained the following:

“In 1957, the successful launch of the first man-made satellite by the Soviet Union activated space research in the entire world,” adding: 

“Thanks to this comparison, the vaccine received the name of Sputnik V” to note another “Sputnik moment.”

Information on the website aims to dispel Western media disinformation already begun.

Will Russia’s Sputnik V prove safe and effective in immunizing against COVID-19?

The fullness of time will tell what’s very much unknown now.

A Final Comment

As expected, establishment media mocked Sputnik V.

The NYT accused Russia of  “cutting corners on testing to score political and propaganda points,” citing no evidence backing its claim.

The Washington Post accused Moscow of “jumping dangerously ahead of” larger-scale testing to make a COVID-19 vaccine available ahead of ones being developed in the West.

The Wall Street Journal said Russia registered the “world’s first Covid-19 vaccine despite safety concerns.”

Other establishment media made similar comments — demeaning Russia’s development while promoting undeveloped/yet to be available Big Pharma vaccines.

With billions of dollars of market potential up for grabs, it’s no surprise that establishment media are supporting development of Western vaccines for COVID-19 over alternatives from Russia, China, and other countries.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Is the US a Global Leader Anymore?

 

Is the US a Global Leader Anymore?

August 13, 2020

by Zamir Awan for the Saker Blog

Currently, the biggest challenge faced by the world is Pandemic. Outbreak early this year has engulfed the whole world. Indeed, the COVID-19 is not too fatal, yet due to its highly contagious nature, it has impacted society adversely. It is a new virus, a lot of studies are going on, especially on its cure and vaccines. Yet, nothing is commercially available; all such R&D is at the laboratory level. Either it is stage one or two or any other advanced stage, yet it might take some time to make the vaccine available at a commercial scale for everybody to be benefitted.

The number of CVID-19 cases has exceeded 20 million, with a death toll of around 750,000. The economic impact is even more visible. And some of the countries are already slipped into recession, while few are almost near to collapse. Social distance has made everyday life more difficult, people are losing jobs, businesses are suffering, and some of the markets have been closed.

At this challenging moment, the whole world was looking toward the US as a global leader to rescue them. Developing countries and underdeveloped countries were more miserable and was expecting much more from the US. Even the developed nations and well-advanced countries were also expecting some kind of assistance or help from the US.

Unfortunatetely, the US was the worst-hit country in the world, with the highest number of Coronavirus cases and the death toll. It was the time when the US can prove its global leadership role. NATO allies, other friendly countries were in award position, when the US showed cold shoulders.

It is entirely right; every country should look after its own interest and must say his own country first. But for a leader, one has to take everyone else along with and protect everyone.

Acknowledging the US’s global leadership, just after World War II (WWII), by launching the Marshal Program aimed to rebuild war-torn Europe was a successful model. As a result, the US gained a leadership role. But during the last couple of decades, the US policies witnessed a deviation from Global responsibilities.

The US was leaving International organizations and treaties, one after another, ignoring its global obligations and escaping from global responsibilities gradually.

  • In 1982, to maintain its maritime hegemony, the United States refused to sign the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), of which it is still not a party. It has created an imbalance of power in the global maritime and vulnerability.
  • In 1984, the United States formally withdrew from UNESCO, dissatisfied with the gradual erosion of its social control by developing countries. After returning to the Organization in 2003, it once again withdrew in 2017 on the so-called ground of saving funds and urging reform. UNESCO suffered a considerable loss in its routine functions. It has impacted the capabilities of the Organization adversely due to a shortage of funds.
  • In 1985, the United States refused to recognize the compulsory jurisdiction of the United Nations International Court of Justice (ICJ) after Nicaragua complained that US armed intervention violated its sovereignty. A message that the US was not sincere about global justice. As a matter of fact, the US was extensively involved in war-crimes and international terrorism and scared of convictions.
  • In 1995, the United States withdrew from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization and refused to pay arrears by claiming domestic budgetary constraints, damaging the global industrialization program. Yet increased its defense budget.
  • The United States has refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol since 2001, saying it was not in its national interest to meet relevant environmental obligations. By withdrawing, the US denied its responsibility in protecting the global environment. It should be noted that damaging the environment is a severe collective crime with humanity.
  • In 2001, the United States withdrew from the United Nations World Conference against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia, and Related Intolerance after failing to prevent discussion of Israeli military action against Palestinians. Today, what is happening in the US is also the result of these policies.
  • In 2001, to strengthen its military advantage, the United States formally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1972. However, it gave supremacy to the US but created an arms race world-wide, forcing other nations to compete in the US.
  • In 2002, the United States withdrew from the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, citing unfavorable terms for American soldiers, diplomats, and politicians. It was a message that the US did not feel globally obliged not to commit war crimes, espionage, the aggression of sovereign states, etc.
  • In 2017, the United States announced its formal withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) because it believed that multilateral trade agreements were not in its best interests and hindered its “America First” policy. Although the US is the largest economy of the world, it yet believes in unfair practices.
  • In 2017, the US government announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, aimed to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, believing that it could hinder economic development. An irrational approach and wrong decision again.
  • In 2017, the United States withdrew from negotiations of the United Nations Global impact on Migration and cast votes against the UNGCM at the UN General Assembly.
  • In 2018, even though the IAEA confirmed Iran’s fulfillment of its JCPOA commitment and that the United States had no clear evidence to show Iran conducted nuclear tests in breach of the deal, the United States withdrew from the JCPOA, a deal that has been endorsed by the United Nations Security Council and re-imposed unilateral sanctions against Iran. This decision has damaged the US image adversely. Contaraily imposed irrational sanctions on Iran, making the lives of Iranian more miserable.
  • In 2018, the US announced its withdrawal from the UN Human Rights Council, claiming it failed to protect human rights adequately. The current violence in the US may also be the outcome of this decision.
  • In 2018, the United States withdrew from the Optional Protocol to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, Concerning the Compulsory Settlement of Disputes relating to the jurisdiction of the ICJ in order to avoid a Palestinian complaint filed legitimately to the ICJ. It has caused a strong wave of anti-American sentiments in the Arab world.
  • In 2019, the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty to develop short- and medium-range missiles without restraint. Again a wrong decision at wrong timings, pushing the world toward developing more lethal weapons.
  • In 2020, under the pretext of alleged Russian violations of the Open Skies Treaty, the United States announced steps to exit the Treaty.
  • In 2020, the US government, looking for scapegoats for its botched response to COVID-19, announced its withdrawal from the World Health Organization. It should be noted that the United States still owes more than $200 million in assessed contributions. Will the US pay this sum before going out? Exactly, when WHO needs to be strengthened, the US decision harmed the Organization’s capabilities.

Notably, the Trump-Administration has focused only on “America First,” leaving the rest of the world ignored. The Pandemic has exposed Trump-administration’s policies further. Europe was suffering from COVID-19 and expecting that the US may come up with some kind of help and rescue. But, unfortunately, this was not in the minds of the Trump-Administration.

If the United States tries to escape from its global responsibilities, it may no longer enjoy the status of global leadership. The gap created by the US may be filled-in by some other powers. Enjoy authority, but with responsibilities!

Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Podcast: The Beirut Explosion, Economic Terror and the Drumbeat of War Against Hezbollah

 Beirut Blast podcast image

By Mnar Muhawesh Adley

Source

Lebanese journalists Laith Marouf and Marwa Osman recount their experience living through the recent blast that destroyed much of Beirut, an explosion that not only occurred during a period of rapid economic decline but of increasing public outrage over corruption and Western sanctions that have squeezed Lebanon dry.

Welcome to MintCast — an interview series featuring dissenting voices the establishment would rather silence– I’m your host Mnar Muhawesh Adley.

Lebanon is reeling from a blast that destroyed much of the capital Beirut on Tuesday, August 4. 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate in the city’s port is thought to have caught fire and exploded, killing at least 157 people and injuring thousands more. The blast, believed to be one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history, destroyed much of the city and has left an estimated 300,000 people homeless.

Exploiting this tragedy are the usual suspects within Western media and government including the United States and Israel who are beating the drums of war as they try to blame Lebanon’s resistance movement Hezbollah for the massive explosion.

Joining us today to discuss this and what this means for the region and world are two independent journalists and analysts who lived through the blast, Laith Marouf, and Marwa Osman.

Laith Marouf is a journalist, geopolitical analyst, and activist who has served as Canadian National Chair of the group, Solidarity for Palestinian Human Rights. He was the Executive Director of Concordia University Television in Montreal and currently lives in Beirut where he saw first hand the devastation caused by the August 4 explosion.

Marwa Osman is a lecturer at the Lebanese International University and Maaref University. She’s also the host of the MidEaStream broadcasted on Al-Etejah English Channel. Her writing focuses primarily on Middle Eastern issues and can be found in a wide range of outlets, including Press TV.  Like Marouf, Osman is a resident of Beirut.

 

The explosion could barely have come at a worse time for Lebanon, which is suffering through an economic meltdown, with a collapsing currency, rampant inflation, employment difficult to come by, and food becoming increasingly scarce. Worse still, the country’s Economy Minister Raoul Nehme confirmed that grain silos at the port, containing around 15,000 tons of wheat, were destroyed. As a result, the country has barely a few weeks of food in reserve.

Hospitals, already feeling the strain due to the worsening coronavirus outbreak, have been overwhelmed, and have been forced to turn away many arriving for urgently needed medical care. With the city destroyed, roads closed and vehicles upended, most of Beirut’s residents have had little option other than to stay where they are, begin to clean up, even as clouds of toxic fumes engulf the area.

The blast occurred in a context of rapid economic decline, increasing public outrage over corruption — including from Washington — and Western economic sanctions that have squeezed the country dry.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

أيها اللبنانيّون… الإصلاح مستحيل فلا تعوّلوا على أيّة حكومة جديدة!

د. عدنان منصور

أياً كانت أسباب استقالة رئيس الحكومة حسان دياب في الظروف الخطيرة التي يمرّ بها لبنان، فإنّ الحقيقة المرة تشير الى أنّ البلد دخل في نفق مظلم، لا أحد يعرف مداه. حيث الانقسام العمودي داخل الحياة السياسية والشعبية اللبنانية، وما تحويه من أحزاب وأطياف وهيئات وفاعليات مدنية وروحية، تتعارض بشدّة في ما بينها فكراً، ونظرية، وسلوكاً، وأداء، وممارسة، لا يسمح لها وللأسف الشديد الانطلاق بدولة مدنيّة، عصرية، قوية شفافة، بمعزل عن تأثيرات القوى الخارجية على قراراتها، وأيضاً، عن الاختلاف الجوهريّ بين الأطراف المعنية، حول مفاهيم القوة والضعف، السيادة والهيمنة، حول الوطنية والخيانة، المقاومة والعمالة، حرية الاقتصاد وضوابطه، حول الفساد والسرقة والاحتكار، حول الانتماء القومي والتعصب الطائفي، حول الانفتاح والانعزال والحياد، وتحديد وفرز الصديق عن العدو، بالإضافة الى العديد من المسائل والقضايا الإقليمية والدولية الحيوية الحساسة، التي تطرح نفسها بكلّ قوة على الساحة اللبنانية، والتي تفرز في كل وقت، الاصطفافات والتحالفات، والتجاذبات، والولاءات، والعداوات على أوسع نطاق .

إنّ استقالة الحكومة لن تُخرج لبنان من النفق المظلم الذي هو فيه، ولن تحلّ مشاكله المستعصية أيّة حكومة جديدة بسهولة وكما يتمناه اللبنانيون، لأنّ التغيير في لبنان لا يأتي من القاعدة الشعبية كما يتوهّم ويتصوّر البعض،

خلافاً لكلّ التغييرات الجذرية في الحياة السياسية التي شهدتها دول في العالم، عانت ما عانته من طغيان وفساد واستبداد الطبقة السياسية الحاكمة في بلدها. أما في الحالة الفريدة التي يعيشها لبنان، نقول: إنّ التغيير إنْ لم يأت من القمة وتحت الضغط الشعبي الجامع الموحّد، فإنه من الصعب انْ لم نقل من المستحيل تحقيقه. لأنّ الانقسام الداخلي، بين الطوائف والأحزاب داخل القاعدة الشعبية العريضة، شئنا ام أبينا، تتحكم فيه الغرائز الطائفية والمذهبية والعقائدية، والإقطاعيّة السياسية والمالية، والمناطقية، والعشائرية، والعائلية. هذا عدا الكراهية، والحذر والخوف، والتعنّت، والتحجر الفكري. هذه الغرائز جميعها تنسحب على تصوّرات المعنيين بالشأن اللبناني، حول مفاهيم الدولة الوطنية القومية الجامعة، ودستورها، ونظامها، وأسسها. إلا أننا نجد في الوقت ذاته، وفي مجال آخر، تماسك المنظومة السياسيّة الفاسدة القابضة بكلّ قوة على الحكم، وفق استراتيجية جامعة لها، تحول دون الانقسام داخلها وإنْ اهتزت المواقف من حين الى آخر، بحيث إنّ التركيبة الفريدة على صعيد الحكم، تتيح للطبقة السياسية القابضة، ان توزع الأدوار في ما بينها بشكل ذكي، شرس وخبيث، وإنْ اختلفت أحياناً في ما بينها، بحيث تحمي نفوذها، وتعزز من هيمنتها، وتتبادل الأدوار، داخلها بين المعارضة والموالاة، من دون ان تفسح المجال لأيّ إصلاح أو تغيير، ان يتسلل الى داخل منظومتها السياسية والمالية والاقتصادية، وبالتالي بناء الدولة العصرية المقتدرة. لذلك نرى انه ومنذ استقلال لبنان وقبله، وحتى اليوم، كان الشعب في مكان، وكانت الطبقة الحاكمة وسلطتها، بكلّ أطيافها السياسية والطائفية والمالية والاقتصادية في مكان آخر.

هكذا نجد أنه رغم كلّ المحاولات والمطالب، والتحركات الشعبية على مدى عقود طويلة، لم يستطع الشعب أن ينتزع من السلطة الحاكمة، مكسباً وطنياً مهماً ينقل لبنان باتجاه الإصلاح الفعلي، والدولة الواعدة، والقضاء العادل المستقل، واحترام حقوق الإنسان، والتنمية المستدامة، والحوكمة الرشيدة.

إذ إنّ الطبقة الحاكمة بجناحيها الزمني والروحي، التي أناط بها المواطنون مستقبلهم وأمور حياتهم، تحوّلت تدريجياً مع الوقت بسبب استحالة ضخ دم جديد في هياكل الحكم، الى طبقة ديكتاتورية، قابضة على مؤسسات الدولة والنظام بكلّ شراسة، مع ما يرافقها من فساد واحتكار، واستبداد، غير مكترثة بمطالب الشعب وحقوقه، وبناء دولة القانون والمواطنة، وغير عابئة بحماية الوطن، وصون سيادته ووحدة أرضه، وتعزيز قوته في وجه العدو الإسرائيلي الدائم المتربّص به.

إنّ استقالة حكومة وتأليف أخرى، لن ينقذا وطناً او شعباً كما يتصوّر الذين أسقطوا وأطاحوا حكومة حسان دياب، وتصدّوا له منذ اليوم الأول لتأليف حكومته، ولن يتحقق التغيير الذي يريده المواطن اللبناني الشريف مع حكومة جديدة، طالما انّ البديل لن يكون غريباً، وخارج المنظومة السياسية التي عانى منها الشعب اللبناني وإنْ تغيّرت الوجوه. فالسلوك يبقى هو هو، ولن يتبدّل، ومنظومة الحكم هي هي، ولن تعدّل نهجها وسلوكها.

فهل كتب على هذا اللبنان المعذب، ان يظلّ أسيراً في يد منظومة سياسية فاسدة فاشلة بكلّ المقاييس، أم انّ القدر سينعم على هذا البلد بنخبة تخرجه من مأساته التي طالت وتجاوزت الحدود؟!

لا يعوّل ايّ شخص على اتفاق دولي يخرج لبنان من محنته، لأنّ أيّ تسوية بين الأطراف ستكون مؤقتة، ولن تجلب الترياق له، بل ستكون مسكّناً لفترة قصيرة، لأنّ الخلاف الأساسي الجوهري بين المحورين اللبنانيين، يرتبط بالمقاومة ودورها وسلاحها، وهي بالتالي المستهدفة من الخارج . فعلى أيّ أساس ستتمّ المعادلة التوفيقية بين أطراف الصراع في الداخل والخارج ولمصلحة من؟ وعلى حساب مَن؟

لا أحد يشكّ في انّ التغيير والإصلاح في لبنان، يُعتبر من المعجزات، طالما انّ الانقسام الحادّ هو السيد داخل بيت الشعب المتصدّع، المحكوم قهراً، بينما وحدة المصالح والامتيازات قوية، موحدة، ومصانة داخل الطبقة الحاكمة المهيمنة، التي تمسك بالمفاصل القوية الحساسة لأجهزة الحكم كلها دون قيد أو شرط وهذا ما تبيّن جلياً على الأرض .

أعداء الأمس هم أصدقاء اليوم، وأصدقاء اليوم هم أعداء الغد، لا شيء يتغيّر في سلوكهم ومفهومهم وممارستهم وأدائهم، وإنْ تغيّر شكلاً وتكتيكاً، ليبقى في ما بعد النظام وأدواته ومؤسساته في قبضتهم…

لكن ماذا عن الفريق الآخر في ظلّ حكومة “وحدة وطنية” أو سياسية الأقطاب يجري الحديث عنها، وثوابته حيال المقاومة وسلاحها، ومواقفه من التدويل، والحياد، والتعاطي مع الغرب والشرق، والالتزام بقضايا المنطقة، ورفضه الابتعاد عن محيطه، وتمسكه بحقوقه لجهة المنطقة الاقتصادية الخالصة، وترسيم الحدود البرية والبحرية، ورفض صفقة العصر، ومواجهة العقوبات الأميركية، الهادفة الى تطويقه ومحاصرته، ونزع سلاحه! عقوبات تتناغم مع البروباغندا الداخلية والخارجية من قبل خصوم الأمس، بشأن سيطرة السلاح، وهيمنته على البلد والتحكم بقراره ومصيره، و.. و..

مسكين هذا الشعب اللبناني المحكوم بطبقة حاكمة تستنسخ نفسها عند كلّ أزمة خطيرة واستحقاق، آثر بإرادته أن لا ينفصل عنها، وعن زعمائها، يرضخ لها ثم يثور، يستزلم لها وبعد ذلك يصرخ من الجوع، يفدي زعيمه بروحه ودمه ثم يطالب بالحقوق، يبيع صوته الانتخابي بحفنة من الليرات، وبعدها ينتفض ويغضب من الجور… يترك اللصوص الذين سلّطهم عليه بإرادته، يسرقونه، ينهبونه، يفلسونه ويجوّعونه، وبعد ذلك يسبّهم، يلعنهم ويشتمهم، بعد أن يفور .

إنّ التغيير في لبنان يُعتبر من المعجزات. فهل يسجل الشعب اللبناني في تاريخه ولو لمرة واحدة معجزة تطيح بأفسد وأسوأ طبقة سياسية جثمت على صدره، منذ ان حصل لبنان على استقلاله، ام انّ عصر المعجزات عند الشعب اللبناني قد ولى إلى غير رجعة، وأنه كتب عليه البقاء في النفق المظلم الذي حفرته له طبقة ظالمة، عرفت كيف تتعاطى معه، وتخدّره وتروّضه وتمتصّ دمه حتى النفس الأخير !

أيها المواطن اللبناني، استفق من غيبوبتك، واعلم جيداً ان لا أحد من منظومة القهر السياسية، يريد بناء دولة وتحقيق الإصلاح الذي تريده ويريده كلّ اللبنانيين. أدوار قذرة يتبادلونها ضمن فريق واحد على ملعب واسع، لستَ عندهم الا كرة يتقاذفون بك، على مساحة الوطن المنكوب.

وزير الخارجية والمغتربين الأسبق


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US to ‘stop at nothing’ to extend arms embargo against Iran

 By News Desk -2020-08-15

Earlier in the day, the UN Security Council rejected a resolution aimed at extending the arms embargo against Iran, ahead of its expiration in October.

The Trump administration will be following up on its promise to “stop at nothing” to extend an arms embargo on Iran, said the US ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft, said after UN Security Council voted not to adopt a resolution that aimed at prolonging the blockade.

“Under Resolution 2231, the United States has every right to initiate snapback of provisions of previous Security Council resolutions,” Craft said in a statement on Friday. “In the coming days, the United States will follow through on that promise to stop at nothing to extend the arms embargo.

Resolution 2231, addressed by Craft, endorsed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, from which the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew in May 2018.

The decision not to extend the arms embargo on Iran was announced earlier in the day, drawing a denouncement from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who asserted that the UNSC “failed to uphold its fundamental mission set” by rejecting the resolution.

“It [UNSC] rejected a reasonable resolution to extend the 13-year old arms embargo on Iran and paved the way for the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism to buy and sell conventional weapons without specific UN restrictions in place for the first time in over a decade,” Pompeo said on Friday.

Following US intentions to do everything possible to prevent Tehran from buying and selling weapons on the international market, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Majid Takht Ravanchi, said that the return of any UN Security Council sanctions on Iran would be met severely, and insisted that the US will be fully responsible.

“As we have already stated, imposition of any sanctions or restrictions on Iran by the Security Council will be met severely by Iran and our options are not limited. And the United States and any entity which may assist it or acquiesce in its illegal behavior, will bear the full responsibility,” Ravanchi said on Friday.

Iran has faced a US-led arms embargo for 13 years. The embargo is set to expire in October, under the terms of the JCPOA, which would have seen Tehran scale back its nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief. The deal was signed in 2015 between Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.

In May 2018, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the JCPOA. Beginning in 2019, Tehran began to step away from its commitments under the deal, reiterating that its nuclear program remains exclusively peaceful.

Source: Sputnik


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UN Security Council Rejects US Resolution to Extend Iran Arms Embargo

August 15, 2020

Source

The United Nations Security Council

The United Nations Security Council has rejected a US resolution to extend an arms embargo on Iran that is due to expire in October, as Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a summit of world leaders to avoid “confrontation” over an American threat to trigger a return of all UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

“The Security Council’s failure to act decisively in defense of international peace and security is inexcusable,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement on Friday before the Security Council announced the results of the vote.

The United States has become isolated over Iran at the Security Council following President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the multilateral Iran nuclear deal 2018.

Iran has said that the US resolution will fail to gain the required support at the Security Council, pointing out that Washington has no legal right to invoke a snapback mechanism to reinstate sanctions against Tehran under the 2015 nuclear deal that the US unilaterally left in May 2018.

“Legally speaking, the United States is no position to use the snapback [mechanism]. The three European allies of the United States also explicitly stated at a previous meeting of the UN Security Council that the United States could not use this mechanism,” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations in New York called on the Security Council to withstand the “illegal” and “ill-intentioned” move by the United States to extend the arms embargo on the Islamic Republic.

The US has stepped up attempts aimed at extending the UN arms ban on Iran that is set to expire as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which has been endorsed by Security Council Resolution 2231.

Despite the changes in the US resolution, Security Council members were expected to reject the effort, which sought to extend the arms embargo on Iran indefinitely.

Diplomats feared that the resolution would threaten the Iran nuclear agreement.

Washington failed to receive nine votes in favor of the measure, removing the need for Russia and China to wield their vetoes which they had indicated they were prepared to do.

Russia and China are two of the Security Council’s five permanent members, who have veto rights, and among the remaining parties to the JCPOA.

The resolution needed support from nine of 15 votes to pass. Eleven members abstained, including France, Germany and Britain, while the US and the Dominican Republic were the only “yes” votes.

The Trump administration has repeatedly threatened to trigger the so-called snapback provisions of the 2015 nuclear deal if it cannot secure an arms embargo extension.

Since leaving the JCPOA, the US has been resorting to its maximum pressure campaign against Iran by reinstating its sanctions and persuading others to follow its suit.

Russian President Putin on Friday proposed a video summit with the United States and the remaining parties to the nuclear agreement – Britain, France, China, Germany and Iran – to avoid further “confrontation and escalation” at the United Nations between Washington and Tehran.

“The issue is urgent,” Putin said, adding that the alternative was “only further escalation of tensions, increasing risk of conflict – such a scenario must be avoided.”

Source: Agencies

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