Uprooted Palestinians are at the heart of the conflict in the M.E Palestinians uprooted by force of arms. Yet faced immense difficulties have survived, kept alive their history and culture, passed keys of family homes in occupied Palestine from one generation to the next.
Former White House senior adviser Jared Kushner is seeking investors from the Gulf States for a new firm, according to a report in the New York Times.
The son-in-law of former US president Donald Trump established the Miami-based investment firm Affinity Partners after Trump lost his reelection bid to current president Joe Biden in November of last year.
Kushner has so far struggled to get financial backing from sovereign wealth funds, according to the Friday report, with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates declining. However, Kushner did have success in courting Saudi Arabia and the kingdom’s $450 billion Public Investment Fund, sources told the newspaper, and with negotiations over what could be a sizeable amount of money.
Over the summer it was reported that Kushner will also open an office in the apartheid “Israeli” entity that will promote trade ties between “Israel”, India, the Gulf States and North Africa.
Kushner was one of the architects of the so-called ‘Abraham Accords’ that normalized relations between ‘Israel’ and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
“When former White House officials start cashing in their time served with our government by cozying up to monarchs, it turns the stomach a bit. Is it illegal? No,” Nick Penniman, the head of Issue One, a good-government organization in Washington, told the Times. “Is it swampy and seemingly hypocritical? Yes.”
يزداد الكلام السعودي العالي السقوف بحق حلفاء السعودية التقليديين من اللبنانيين قبل خصومها، وصولاً إلى الحديث القطعي عن إدارة ظهر طويلة الأمد، لأن العقل السياسي الحالي للسعودية يعتقد بأن الفراغ الذي تتركه السعودية سيبقى فراغاً حتى ترضى وتعود إليه، كما تعتقد القيادة السعودية بأن عودتها ستكون سبباً لعروض لبنانية بتنازلات تتلاحق حتى تبلغ السقف الذي يرضي السعودية، بما في ذلك ما يعتقد المسؤولون السعوديون أنه يتعلق باليمن، كما تعتقد القيادة السعودية أنها ستتلقى عروضاً خارجية إيرانية وسورية وفرنسية وأميركية للتعاون في توفير شروط ملء الفراغ، لكن الواقع شيء آخر، فهذا لبنان، تلك النقطة على المتوسط التي تجاور سورية وتقابل أوروبا، وتقع على حدود فلسطين، وتختزن أقوى مقاومة في الشرق تؤرق إسرائيل ومن خلفها أميركا، وهو لبنان المرفأ الاستراتيجي الذي تتسابق عليه الدول، والسوق العقارية النادرة الذي بات يمثل فرصة ذهبية مع انهيار سعر الليرة، والمصارف الواقعة تحت أعباء كبرى تجعل منها سلعة معروضة للبيع بأرخص الأسعار، وهو لبنان حيث الطوائف كيانات اجتماعية شبه مغلقة تبحث كل منها عن قيادة تقف خلفها دولة وازنة، تقدم نفسها حامياً إقليمياً وشريكاً في صناعة التوازنات.
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تركيا الدولة الإقليمية الكبرى، باقتصادها وعدد سكانها وجيشها، القلقة على حبال التوازنات الدولية، التي تخوض حروباً صغيرة بعد فشل حربها الكبيرة في سورية، وهاجس رئيسها على أبواب انتخابات رئاسية صعبة، وفي ظروف اقتصادية حرجة، أن يجد انتصاراً سياسياً يفتح آفاقاً اقتصادية جديدة، ويخفف إحراجات التصادم مع عناصر المعادلة الإقليمية والدولية، تركيا هذه لم تأت إلى لبنان بوزير خارجيتها في جولة سياحية ولا بمهمة إنسانية كانت مفهومة بعد انفجار مرفأ بيروت، وتركيا لم تخف اهتمامها بالحصول على عقود الكهرباء وعقود تشغيل وإعادة إعمار مرفأ بيروت، وهي همست حيث يجب بأنها جاهزة لاستقبال البضائع اللبنانية التي توقف تصديرها إلى دول الخليج، وأنها حاضرة لتجديد عروضها الاستثمارية في مجالات كالمرفأ وسكك الحديد ومشاريع الكهرباء، بطريقة التمويل والإنشاء والتشغيل، وفتح الباب أمام مصارفها للدخول على خط الحلول المتداولة لتعويم القطاع المصرفي، وأمام تكامل سياحي لبناني تركي بحري وجوي، وتركيا مهتمة بالتوازي بتحفيز قطر التي تستمع بإصغاء للنصائح التركية، للمشاركة المالية في خطط النهوض اللبنانية بعد موافقة صندوق النقد الدولي عليها، فيما كررت قطر مراراً اهتمامها بسوق الغاز في لبنان، وبناء منصات التغويز وتشغيلها وإمدادها بالغاز.
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التحفظ الفرنسي على الحضور التركي الإضافي على البحر المتوسط، في ظل مخاوف من دور تركي بين النازحين السوريين يرفع من وتيرة القلق الفرنسي خصوصاً والأوروبي عموماً، لكن التحفظ الفرنسي مبني أساساً على تطلع الشركات الفرنسية للعب الأدوار التي يهتم التركي بشغلها، والمنافسة التركية الفرنسية في ليبيا مثال مشابه، ففرنسا بقيت مترددة بالتوغل على خلفية الثقة بمكانتها كدولة عظمى، بينما كانت الشركات التركية تقفز إلى الخط الأمامي، وتؤسس للدور السياسي، وصولاً لترسيم حدود النفط والغاز، وهو ملف لا يغيب عن التنافس على لبنان، الذي تمثل ثروته مصدراً للسباق الإقليمي والدولي، وإذا كانت العقدة التي تعترض طريق تركيا هي عجزها عن اتخاذ موقف نوعي ينهي تورطها في سورية، فثمة من يقول إن تركيا أبدت الاستعداد لمقايضة من نوع التسهيل المتبادل، تسهيل تركي للتقدم السوري في شمال سورية، وتسهيل سوري للتقدم التركي في لبنان، وفي ظل ما يشهده اليمن من تحولات كبرى ترسم إيقاع المنطقة، تتقدم تركيا نحو لبنان وتأتي بعدها قطر لترصد النتائج، بينما السعودية تقفل الأبواب مع لبنان، ولا تعلم ما سيكون الحال عليه بعد تطورات اليمن.
“ISIL (ISIS – DAESH) was getting stronger, Daesh was threatening the possibility of going to Damascus, we know that this was growing, we were watching, we saw that Daesh was growing in strength, and we thought that Assad was threatened, we thought, however, that we can probably manage that Assad might then negotiate, instead of negotiating we’ve got Putin supporting Assad.” Former US Secretary of State John Kerry said in a leaked audio recording.
“We created Al Qaeda then we left the mess for the Pakistanis to deal with them” Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a congressional hearing.
“The problem is in our allies, they were arming and funding everyone who wanted to fight Assad.” Former Vice President of the USA, currently President of the same USA Joe Biden said during a foreign policy address at Harvard University in September 2014.
“We will keep the oil, I like oil, let the others fight terrorism, I like oil.” Former US President Donald Trump.
‘When I was appointed as the financial controller of ISIS and moved to Raqqa from Iraq, there were 250 million dollars in cash and 3000 kilograms of gold stored in houses and tunnels in the city. We were selling the oil from the wells under our control in Iraq and most of them in Syria to petrol stations, factories, and merchants, and the rest we were exporting them, we were selling the oil for 180 dollars/tonne, which brought us 1.25 billion US dollars a year.’ Deputy Commander of ISIS Sami Jassim Al-Jabouri.
The above is part of the confessions of the ISIS Deputy Commander and its former financial controller Sami Jassim Al-Jabouri, aka among his ‘colleagues as ‘Hajji Hamed,’ which were published by the Iraqi news agency INA.
Sami Al-Jabouri was detained by the Iraqi Security Forces in a ‘complex external operation’ a little over a month ago, his arrest was announced by Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimion October 11, 2021.
The war on Syria for the past 10.5 years was about everything else but saving the Syrian people, spreading democracy, or promoting freedoms; you name it, it was in their agenda: Protecting Israel to build the anti-Christ kingdom as per the Zionist and Evangelical Church beliefs, extending a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe to bypass Iran and Russia and strangle their economies, deprive China of any access to the Mediterranean through West Asia, stealing the oil, stealing the water, stealing the food, mainly wheat, stealing Syria’s factories, then moving to the next countries on the list.
“If we didn’t go to fight the terrorists in Syria, we would have had to fight the terrorists in Russia.” President of Russia Vladimir Putin repeated several times since Oct 30, 2015.
John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden and their allies are not in prison, the first one is preaching the world on ‘climate change’ and the ‘need to reduce carbon emissions’ while traveling in his private jet and attending with his president a summit using a motorcade of 85 vehicles, the second, despite being part of or at least knowing about ‘one of the greatest hoaxes in journalism’ to smear the 3rd one in what was called the ‘Russian collusion’, she’s tweeting her congratulations to senator Patrick Leahy on his ‘long service’ because in the USA and all its cronies the politicians serve for decades but they want to see change in the countries they target, she’s also tweeting about some more acts deliberated, the 3rd one is busy launching his new platform and campaigning to strip two of the most credible [sic] US mainstream media outlets the New York Times and the Washington Post of their Pulitzer prizes because of their essential part in the 2nd’s conspiracy role against him, and the last one, we’re not sure he himself knows where he is.
Those politicians, the war criminals with their allies and their proxy terrorist groups agree on destroying the world one country at a time, Syria was too difficult for them to crack open, now they’re working hard on extending its suffering to strip its people the joy of celebrating their win on the world’s most vicious and super-rich terrorists ISIS, and its ilk, these same politicians do differ on everything else of no real value, just to entertain their sheeple who think they’re free and live in a real democracy.
The 1.25 billion US dollars that the US-created and sponsored ISIS terrorist group was earning are only from the proceeds of selling the stolen oil, this does not include the lootings, ransoms, racketeering, drug trafficking, human organs trafficking, white slavery, and all of that is not comparable to the billions in direct funding by the Gulfies and their NATO sponsors, mainly the US taxpayers, most of which were funneled by dropping weapons and other parcels ‘by mistake’ by the Pentagon to areas under ISIS control, programs to train ‘moderate terrorists’ who would join ISIS or fight on its side, and humanitarian aid sent by the different countries to areas under the control of ISIS and its brethren.
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القرار السعودي بقطع العلاقات الدبلوماسية والتجارية مع لبنان، والسعي لتعميمه خليجياً، رداً على تصريح سابق لوزير الإعلام جورج قرداحي، هو كمن يطلق طائرة حربية بزعم ملاحقة عصفور يزعجه، لا يفسر إطلاقها حجم الهدف المدعى، فالقرار وما سبقه من حملة غضب مفرط يثيران تساؤلات أبعد مدى بكثير من الحدث ورد الفعل عليه، لو سلمنا باعتباره أزعج حكام السعودية، وأبعد مدى حتى من محاولة تحطيم الشخصية الوطنية وروح الكرامة فيها وإذلالها وصولاً لتطويعها، بداعي التمنين بالحاجة للمال، وفي توقيت تبدو السعودية مثقلة بهمها اليمني الآخذ في التسارع نحو الخسارة الكبرى، ويبدو لبنان في ظل حكومة تعاني صعوبة التعافي، فكلما تعافى فيها جرح تفتحت جروح، والمنطقة ولبنان على أبواب استحقاقات كثيرة، تتيح تفسير حال الاضطراب التي تعيشها قوى إقليمية ومحلية، ما يدفعها مواقف وخطوات تصعيدية تحتمل الكثير من المخاطرة والمغامرة وصولاً للمقامرة، كما كانت حال ما فعله التورط في مجزرة الطيونة، أملاً بتداعيات أكبر منها تجعلها في النسيان.
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لا يمكن النظر لحجم الضغط السعودي، والسعي لجعله خليجياً، بالتناسب مع ما تعلنه الحكومة السعودية عن إدارة ظهر تجاه لبنان، أو انزعاج مما يقال بحقها من قبل أطراف لبنانية، فالسعودية منخرطة عميقاً في السياسة اللبنانية، لكن على قاعدة لا للاستقرار في لبنان، ولا لحكومة، أي حكومة في لبنان، وألم يثبت أنه لم يكن مع الرئيس سعد الحريري حصراً، تحت شعار لا للحريري، بل لا للحكومة، لأن شرط اللااستقرار هو اللاحكومة، والذهاب إلى الضغط الأقصى في استعارة لمصطلحات الرئيس الأميركي السابق دونالد ترامب، له وظيفة واحدة، هي الدفع بالانقسام اللبناني تحت عنوان الابتزاز الذي تمثله العلاقة مع السعودية، لوضع مستقبل الحكومة على بساط البحث، عبر دفع فريق لبناني للضغط باتجاه التضحية بالحكومة استرضاء للسعودية إذا تعذر ضبطها تحت سقف الرضا السعودي، وبعد إسقاط الحكومة وما يرتبه من فوضى وانهيار، وإقفال لباب البحث بالحلول السياسية والاقتصادية، والذهاب للانتخابات، يفتح الباب للتدهور الأمني، حيث القوى الحليفة للسعودية تحاول ملء الفراغ في ساحاتها الطائفية.
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خلال سنوات مضت على تولي العماد ميشال عون رئاسة الجمهورية، لم يقم الرئيس بزيارة أي من سورية وإيران، بل بادر في أول زيارة خارجية إلى زيارة السعودية، وضبط إيقاع علاقته بالعرب الآخرين وبسواهم، كالحال مع إيران، على ساعة توقيت عدم إزعاج السعودية، وعندما تحدث وزير الخارجية السابق بكلام تسبب بالغضب السعودي، كان يكفي الاعتذار عن مضمون عنصري ورد فيه بحق البدو، ذهب رئيس الجمهورية لطلب الاستقالة من الوزير شربل وهبة، وخلال كل الفترة الماضية قبل احتجاز الرئيس سعد الحريري وبعد احتجازه، ولبنان بكل أطرافه يدفع فواتير السير تحت سقف ما يرضي السعودية، لكن لبنان لم ينل من كل ذلك سوى المزيد من التجهم والعبوس والتعالي، ومن يراهن أن إقالة أو استقالة الوزير جورج قرداحي ستغير الوضع واهم ومشتبه، ومن يظن أن استقالة الحكومة سيغير الوضع سواء تجاه لبنان أو تجاه من يكون سبباً في استقالة الحكومة، رئيساً أو وزراء، سرعان ما سيكتشف أن لا شيء تغير سوى أخذ لبنان إلى الأسوأ، فليس ثمة مطلب سعودي واقعي من لبنان يتم الضغط لأجل تحقيقه، هناك قرار سعودي بالانتقام من الفشل في لبنان، بدفعه نحو الفوضى واللااستقرار، فما دامت السعودية تفشل في اليمن فيجب إسقاط لبنان على رؤوس أهله، هكذا ببساطة.
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كلام رئيس الحكومة تعليقاً على القرار السعودي عاقل وحكيم، تجاه تأكيد الحرص على السعي لفعل كل ما يخدم تحسين العلاقات مع السعودية، لكن دعوة وزير الإعلام للاستقالة تحت عنوان دعوته لتحكيم ضميره لفعل ما يخدم المصلحة الوطنية، في غير مكانها، وإن ذهبت الأمور بهذا الاتجاه ستكون إهانة مجانية ألحقها لبنان بنفسه بلا مقابل، أما إن تفاقمت الأمور وأودت بالحكومة ووصل رئيسها لحد الاستقالة، فلن تكون بعدها في لبنان حكومة وربما لا انتخابات، ولن يجد الذين فعلوا بنا ذلك لا باباً سعودياً مفتوحاً، وربما لا يجدون وطناً يرجعون إليه بعد السفر.
ISIS terrorists stormed a town in the Miqdadiyah region of Diyala province and slaughtered dozens of people in it, initial report speak of 60 civilians slaughtered.
News coming out from the Al Hawasha village said ISIS terrorists have set up ambushes and targeted the villagers of the Shia sect killing dozens, many are still being unaccounted for, the Al Housha village is in the Miqdadiyah region of the province of Diyala northeast of Baghdad.
‘ISIS commits a sectarian massacre against the Shia in the Al Huwasha village of Miqdadiya, the terrorists set an ambush and targeted civilians, now there are a number of unaccounted martyrs and injured.’
Iraq is in political, economic, sectarian, and social turmoil ever since the United States decided to topple one more country with a national army that doesn’t recognize Israel and coincidently is rich with oil and gold reserves, the country after 18 years of direct invasion suffered and continue to suffer over 1.5 million of its people killed and double of those maimed, and triple of those displaced, and more than 70% of the population impoverished.
The rise of terrorist organizations like ISIS and previously Al Qaeda in the Rafiden (Iraq) mostly from tribes with connections to the Al Saud and the NATO-version of Islam they follow called Wahhabism has only come as an alternative to the ‘US boots on the ground’ after the Iraqi resistance was inflicting a heavy toll on the invaders and looters of their country.
Obama’s role in creating ISIS – Interview with the founder of ‘Jihad’ in Egypt and former friend of chief of Al Qaeda Zawahiri – July 2014
Iraq has concluded very controversial parliamentary elections earlier this month which despite the long preparations and settings developed saw hundreds of proven violations in the ballot boxes as confirmed by the special higher commission for elections which itself is accused of failing all its promises in conducting transparent elections. Protesters took to the streets from the majority of parties and independent candidates with calls to annul the results of the whole election. The USA and its Saudi allies are trying to shore up parties that want to dissolve the Iraqi PMU forces who defeated ISIS in Iraq, no coincidences in politics.
ISIS terrorist organization continues to prove it works for the Pentagon in every single crime it committed since it emerged after the USA and its British partners invaded Iraq in March 2003 based on lies of the country’s possession of weapons of mass destruction proven a completely fabricated information by the USA itself.
From Afghanistan to Iraq to Syria to Libya and the rest of Africa, wherever these ISIS terrorists spring up from nowhere obvious unmistakable NATO interests arise in the targeted countries and the creator and sponsors of ISIS come to ‘fight terrorism’ in those targeted countries. The terrorists commit their massacres against everybody and focus mainly on Muslims who do not follow Wahhabi Islam which is only followed in Saudi Arabia and the ‘democratic empire of the gas station Qatar’ in the Arabian Peninsula.
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Facing high expectations, a five-man band Taliban finally played in Moscow. Yet the star of the show, predictably, was the Mick Jagger of geopolitics: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Right from the start, Lavrov set the tone for the Moscow format consultations, which boast the merit of “uniting Afghanistan with all neighboring countries.” Without skipping a beat, he addressed the US elephant in the room – or lack thereof: “Our American colleagues chose not to participate,” actually “for the second time, evading an extended troika-format meeting.”
Asia’s powerbrokers dropped an Afghan bombshell in Moscow today: ‘the country’s reconstruction must be paid for by its military occupiers of 20 years.’
Washington invoked hazy “logistical reasons” for its absence.
The troika, which used to meet in Doha, consists of Russia, the US, China and Pakistan. The extended troika in Moscow this week featured Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan and all five Central Asian ‘stans.’ That, in essence, made it a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, at the highest level.
Lavrov’s presentation essentially expanded on the themes highlighted by the recent SCO Dushanbe Declaration: Afghanistan should be an “independent, neutral, united, democratic and peaceful state, free of terrorism, war and drugs,” and bearing an inclusive government “with representatives from all ethnic, religious and political groups.”
The joint statement issued after the meeting may not have been exactly a thriller. But then, right at the end, paragraph 9 offers the real bombshell:
“The sides have proposed to launch a collective initiative to convene a broad-based international donor conference under the auspices of the United Nations as soon as possible, certainly with the understanding that the core burden of post-conflict economic and financial reconstruction and development of Afghanistan must be shouldered by troop-based actors which were in the country for the past 20 years.”
The West will argue that a donor conference of sorts already happened: that was the G-20 special summit via videoconference earlier in October, which included UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Then, last week, much was made of a European promise of 1 billion euros in humanitarian aid, which, as it stands, remains extremely vague, with no concrete details.
At the G-20, European diplomats admitted, behind closed doors, that the main rift was between the West “wanting to tell the Taliban how to run their country and how to treat women” as necessary conditions in exchange for some help, compared to Russia and China following their non-interference foreign policy mandates.
Afghanistan’s neighbors, Iran and Pakistan, were not invited to the G-20, and that’s nonsensical. It’s an open question whether the official G-20 in Rome, on 30-31 October, will also address Afghanistan along with the main themes: climate change, Covid-19, and a still elusive global economic recovery.
No US in Central Asia
So the Moscow format, as Lavrov duly stressed, remains the go-to forum when it comes to addressing Afghanistan’s serious challenges.
Now we come to the crunch. The notion that the economic and financial reconstruction of Afghanistan should be conducted mainly by the former imperial occupier and its NATO minions – quaintly referred to as “troop-based actors” – is a non-starter.
The US does not do nation-building – as the entire Global South knows by experience. Even to unblock the nearly $10 billion of the Afghan Central Bank confiscated by Washington will be a hard slog. The IMF predicted that without foreign help the Afghan economy may shrink by 30 percent.
The Taliban, led by second Prime Minister Abdul Salam Hanafi, tried to put on a brave face. Hanafi argued that the current interim government is already inclusive: after all, over 500,000 employees of the former administration have kept their jobs.
But once again, much precious detail was lost in translation, and the Taliban lacked a frontline figure capable of capturing the Eurasian imagination. The mystery persists: where is Mullah Baradar?
Baradar, who led the political office in Doha, was widely tipped to be the face of the Taliban to the outside world after the group’s takeover of Kabul on 15 August. He has been effectively sidelined.
The background to the Moscow format, though, offers a few nuggets. There were no leaks – but diplomats hinted it was tense. Russia had to play careful mediator, especially when it came to addressing grievances by India and concerns by Tajikistan.
Everyone knew that Russia – and all the other players – would not recognize the Taliban as the new Afghan government, at least not yet. That’s not the point. The priority once again had to be impressed on the Taliban leadership: no safe haven for any jihadi outfits that may attack “third countries, especially the neighbors,” as Lavrov stressed.
When President Putin casually drops the information, on the record, that there are at least 2,000 ISIS-K jihadis in northern Afghanistan, this means Russian intel knows exactly where they are, and has the capabilities to snuff them, should the Taliban signal help is needed.
Now compare it with NATO – fresh from its massive Afghan humiliation – holding a summit of defense ministers in Brussels this Thursday and Friday to basically lecture the Taliban. NATO’s secretary-general, the spectacularly mediocre Jens Stoltenberg, insists that “the Taliban are accountable to NATO” over addressing terrorism and human rights.
As if this was not inconsequential enough, what really matters – as background to the Moscow format – is how the Russians flatly refused a US request to deploy their intel apparatus somewhere in Central Asia, in theory, to monitor Afghanistan.
First they wanted a “temporary” military base in Uzbekistan or Tajikistan: Putin–Biden actually discussed it at the Geneva summit. Putin counter-offered, half in jest, to host the Americans in a Russian base, probably in Tajikistan. Moscow gleefully played along for a few weeks just to reach an immovable conclusion: there’s no place for any US “counter-terrorism” shenanigans in Central Asia.
To sum it all up, Lavrov in Moscow was extremely conciliatory. He stressed how the Moscow format participants plan to use all opportunities for “including” the Taliban via several multilateral bodies, such as the UN, the SCO – where Afghanistan is an observer nation – and crucially, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is a military alliance.
So many layers of ‘inclusiveness’ beckon. Humanitarian help from SCO nations like Pakistan, Russia and China is on its way. The last thing the Taliban need is to be ‘accountable’ to brain-dead NATO.
In recent months in the wake of the events in Afghanistan, Pakistan has conspicuously increased its regional influence, a fact noticed not only by the most active international actors, but also by Pakistan itself.
Thus, on September, 22 at a business conference in Islamabad Pakistani Minister for Information and Broadcasting Fawad Ahmed Chaudhry highlighted the increased regional importance of his country pointing out that under Prime Minister Imran Khan, Pakistan has now become a global decision-maker. To support his claim the Minister stressed out that Pakistan is taking an active part in Taliban’s efforts to form an inclusive Afghan government (banned in Russia) and is engaged in connecting Gwadar and Karachi with Central Asian countries by rail via Mazar-i-Sharif as part of the implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project. In addition, the government has initiated 1,100 various projects involving other countries as well.
After a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan the US has found another reliable communications channel with Taliban via Pakistan. It became another venue in addition to Doha where under the auspices of CIA office in Central Asia talks with Taliban on the US military withdrawal were held. In an effort to establish a line of communication with Taliban CIA decided to turn to the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) which has close ties with the militant organization and had previously helped the US to facilitate contacts with it.
Beijing also decided to turn Pakistan into its foothold in the region so that it could, among other things, check US regional influence thus becoming a leading investor in the country’s economy. For that reason Chinese investors have funneled more than $70 billion into Pakistani economy.
Meanwhile, Pakistan can capitalize on its close ties with Taliban helping the US and CIA not only to escape the Afghan trap with dignity, but also to punish the culprits who had killed the US military personnel in Kabul airport during the evacuation. To achieve this goal without Pakistani intelligence’s aid will be a difficult task. China also takes interest in Pakistan’s mediation services regarding not only ensuring stability in Afghanistan but also expeditious recognition of Taliban regime in the West. In early September, to address these matters General Faiz Hamid, the head of Pakistani intelligence, visited Kabul to discuss with Taliban leaders security issues as well as economic and trade engagement thus becoming the first top foreign official to set foot on Afghan soil after Taliban seized power in this country.
At the same time on September, 13 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was quick to announce that the US administration intends to assess Pakistan’s role in supporting the radical movement of Taliban as well in the events in Afghanistan. The US authorities are set to look at “what role Pakistan has played over the last 20 years” amid the events in Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover, he said. Washington will also take up the issue of what role, from the US perspective, Pakistan “has to play in the coming years and what it will take for it to do that”. During his speech the Secretary of State said that actions of Pakistan in many cases “are in conflict with” US interests although at some points the interests of the two powers converge. Blinken stressed out that the US cooperates with Pakistan on a range of issues regarding counterterrorism.
With Taliban’s grip on power now secure, the political significance of Pakistan has clearly swelled. Let’s recall that Pakistan was one of the three countries (the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) that had recognized Taliban government in 1990. It also was the last to sever official ties in 2001. For more than two decades Pakistan provided injured Taliban leaders with shelter and medical care. Many Afghans who joined the movement were educated in Pakistani religious schools. For the first time in its history, Pakistan has gained global influence since such important countries as Russia, China and the US rely on its active participation in helping the interested parties in Afghanistan to engage in mutual cooperation as a new political landscape in Central and South Asian region emerges, which is a matter of interest for them.
Pakistan’s significantly increased importance was also visible during the last SCO summit as Islamabad, along with Iran, China and Russia, took an active part in debating Afghanistan’s political future. And this is understandable since Islamabad remains the only regional actor that has a direct sway on Taliban.
It should also not be forgotten that control over Taliban in Afghanistan is vital for Pakistan itself since it wants to stave off Taliban’s merging with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (banned in Russia) or with other Taliban militants present in the country who are in control of mountainous federal territories. Such coalition would entail the creation of a gigantic Pashtunistan, a threat to Pakistan’s very existence.
Proving this point in Islamabad on September, 12 General Faiz Hameed, the head of Inter-Service Intelligence, hosted a meeting of chiefs of intelligence services of Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Iran and China. The participants discussed the situation in Afghanistan, exchanged views on what was going on in the country and also discussed measures needed to ensure “lasting peace and stability” in the region. According to Mohammad Sadiq, Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan, participants “were unanimous that peace in Afghanistan is vital for security, stability and prosperity of the entire region”. He said that the region-wide approach and the active role of Pakistan in this process will help to both realize the potential of the republic, and resolve problems of mutual interest.
Meanwhile it is not coincidence that Pakistan, fearing that Afghan destabilization will have a “ricochet” effect on it, is simultaneously maneuvering within the coalition Pakistan — Qatar — Turkey. So now the Pakistani intelligence is trying to determine how deep is the rift between the parties and what it could mean both for Islamabad and the region as a whole.
Vladimir Platov, expert on the Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
David Hearst is co-founder and editor-in-chief of Middle East Eye.He says Middle East Eye is funded by “individual private donors” but he won’t name them. He said that his organisation is not funded by Qatar – or any other state or group – and is here to stay. He appears as a commentator on the Middle East for Al Jazeera English and Alaraby TV, TRT, Masr Al-Aan TV.
For years, Emirati foreign policy has been a disaster. Now, on the anniversary of the fundamentally flawed Abraham Accords, a rethink is underway
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed is pictured in Berlin in June 2019 (Reuters)
The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban has triggered an earthquake that has travelled across the Gulf. The tectonic plates that defined who did what to whom in the region are shifting.
Alliances that only a year ago seemed to be set in concrete are cracking. The vacuum created by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has been felt just as keenly in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv as it has in Kabul.
The clearest sign of swaying buildings and buckling tarmac are the pledges and significant amounts of money being promised by the de facto leader of the UAE to Turkey, states that are vigorous competitors for regional influence.
It is pragmatism, not a fundamental change of heart, that is causing the latest handbrake turn in Abu Dhabi’s foreign policy
And Turkey has not been the only sign of the apparent U-turn in UAE policy. Shortly after his recent meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Tahnoun bin Zayed, UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed’s brother and security chief, flew to mend fences with Qatar.
Only a year ago, the UAE was urging Saudi Arabia not to lift the blockade of Qatar. This latest visit is a recognition that the blockade was a spectacular failure. Qatar has emerged as US President Joe Biden’s strongest partner in the Gulf, and the one on whom he depended for evacuating Afghans and communicating with the Taliban.
How different from the start of the blockade, when Qatar was painted as a refuge for terrorists and Islamists, and former US President Donald Trump tweeted his approval of the Saudi action.
Billions promised
Erdogan is keeping the transcript of his recent telephone conversation with MBZ close to his chest. Only a trusted few know what the crown prince promised. According to my sources, MBZ offered Erdogan more than $10bn in investments.
Unlike the military side of the government of Sudan, or indeed President Kais Saied in Tunisia, Erdogan is not being made to wait long for the money to arrive. The Dubai-based courier Aramex is reportedly in talks to buy the Turkish delivery company MNG Kargo.
There is much secrecy in Ankara, but one thing is clear: the momentum for this reset is coming from Abu Dhabi. Erdogan is wary, and the foreign policy establishment in Turkey is sceptical. Both have good reason for caution.
UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meet in Ankara on 18 August 2021 (Turkish Presidency)
This was the state that, according to Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, spent $3bn attempting (and very nearly succeeding) to topple Erdogan on 15 July 2016. Cavusoglu did not name the UAE, but it was clear who he was referencing when he mentioned “a Muslim country”.
The same state funds neoconservative Washington think tanks that regularly debunk Erdogan and his ability to sustain the lira. It competes for influence with Turkey in Syria, Yemen, Libya, the Horn of Africa, Egypt and Tunisia. It was the brains behind, and one of the funders of, the counter-revolution that toppled former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi – and it has tried repeatedly to rearrange the furniture in Tunisia, Sudan and Yemen. Emirati planes at one point provided air cover for renegade general Khalifa Haftar’s ill-fated attempt to recapture Tripoli.The UAE’s military interventions have led to disaster – not stabilityRead More »
It has also created armies of “electronic flies” to condition public opinion through social media. The UAE’s interventions far beyond the Gulf have wreaked havoc throughout the Middle East.
Turkey has long been on the receiving end of this. So why would a leopard on a mission to hunt down political Islam and render it extinct, change its spots? It is not a question that can be convincingly answered.
Nor is this the first attempt at a kiss and make up: the UAE made a similar overture to Ankara when it thought Hillary Clinton would become US president. When Trump won, this was instantly dropped. It is pragmatism, not a fundamental change of heart, that is causing the latest handbrake turn in Abu Dhabi’s foreign policy. The sceptics in Ankara are right to be cautious.
Nevertheless, it could still be happening. The flood of signals coming out of Abu Dhabi towards Erdogan and Turkey mostly take place in private forums, and the message is consistent, even if you don’t believe it.
‘Strategic reassessment’
According to people with knowledge of these conversations, top UAE officials claim to be conducting a “strategic reassessment” of foreign policy.
It starts with Biden. The UAE noted two features of its changed relationship with Washington since his administration came to power: the first was a consistent message from the new US administration to “de-escalate” tensions in the Middle East. The second was the unpredictability of US foreign policy.
The new policy, then, is apparently to spread influence through economic cooperation, rather than military intervention and political competition
This was surely already apparent under Trump, when he refused to bomb Tehran after Iran and its Iraqi proxies sent armed drones to cripple two Saudi oil facilities, temporarily halving crude production. If ever Saudi Arabia and the UAE felt unprotected by the US military umbrella, it was then.
Coupled with this, they claim, is a hard-headed assessment of what the UAE has actually achieved. Its interventions have indeed beaten the Muslim Brotherhood back as a political force in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria, and partly in Libya. But the cost of the UAE’s secular jihad is enormous.
Three of these countries are in smoking ruins, and the other two, Egypt and Tunisia, are nearly bankrupt. What has MBZ gained for the billions of dollars he has invested in Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi?
The new policy, then, is apparently to spread influence through economic cooperation, rather than military intervention and political competition.
Saudi-UAE rift
They don’t say it, but when questioned, there is clearly also coolness with Riyadh. One emissary claimed that the UAE delayed its pullout from Yemen for a year to allow Saudi Arabia to end the war with the Houthis, but it is clear that Yemen is a sore point between the two military allies.
Saudi Arabia recently announced a series of moves to weaken Abu Dhabi, the latest being the pullout of Al Arabiya and parent media company MBC from Dubai. It has clamped down on tax-free goods from an Emirati free trade zone, as well as insisting that foreign multinationals base their headquarters in Riyadh rather than Dubai. There is a lot more sibling rivalry to the brotherly relations between the two Gulf countries these days.
MBZ meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah in 2018 (Bandar al-Jaloud/Saudi Royal Palace/AFP)
Publicly, the UAE’s licensed political analysts are hinting at a different set of regional priorities. Political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abudulla tweeted that the main message from Washington was that the US would not defend the Gulf. “And the Arab Gulf states are at a crossroads; how should they adapt to the post-America Gulf stage?”
Spot the notable absences from this list: Saudi Arabia and Egypt, its closest allies in 2013.
Abraham Accords lose value
Abu Dhabi is not the only signatory of the Abraham Accords which is reassessing the value of a pro-US bloc in the Gulf. One year on from the signing in Washington, the Abraham Accords are losing their shine. A year ago, they seemed to have so much going for them. It was a marriage of brains and brawn, the military might and technological superiority of Israel with the dollars of the Gulf.UAE-Israel deal: Abraham accord or Israeli colonialism?Read More »
It was a way of bypassing the Palestinian conflict, without the need for messy, time-wasting things like negotiations, elections or popular mandates. The accords were a solution imposed from above – a fait accompli, which the Arab masses would have to live with.
But like the megacities of Saudi Arabia, the accords were built on shifting sands.
They had two fundamental flaws. Firstly, they depended on individual leaders – not states – meeting at first in secret as their drivers. This means that when two key players were removed from the picture – Trump and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the project itself lost sponsorship and momentum.
The other problem was that they were all about the relationship between regional states and the US. They did not address the fundamental problems of relations between the key regional actors themselves.
The UAE’s motive for moving closer to Israel was to cement its relationship with Washington. Recognition of Israel was always a means to an end, not the end in itself.
Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed sign the Abraham Accords in 2020 (AFP)
For Israel, on the other hand, the Abraham Accords were all about cementing its own security by increasing its regional influence. It fundamentally misread Arab intentions by conceiving of normalisation as a military and diplomatic safety net for its own continued existence.
Zvi Barel, writing in Haaretz, observed: “The kaleidoscopic shifting of international relations will require Israel to examine its place in the newly-forming alignment. The idea that there’s a pro-U.S. bloc that provides Israel with a military and diplomatic safety net and acts alongside it as an informal coalition against Iran, is beginning to fall apart.”
Regional realignment
The US not only supplied the carrots and sticks necessary to coerce states such as Sudan to join the accords, by removing it from its list of terrorist states. It was the very reason for the accords themselves.
The Emiratis, being quick off the mark, have seen the future shape of the post-oil world. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has yet to reconcile himself to the US military absence. Maybe he will now that Biden has just withdrawn his Patriot missiles from the kingdom and lifted the bar imposed by two of his predecessors to confidential documents on allegations of Saudi government links to two of the 9/11 hijackers.
It has taken eight long years for the penny to drop. But if indeed it has, this realisation presents a genuine opportunity to reshape a post-American Middle East
Unlike MBZ, MBS harbours personal grudges. He cannot forgive Erdogan for the role he played in keeping the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi on the agenda in Washington. In so doing, Erdogan permanently damaged MBS’s international reputation, making a repeat trip to London and the US impossible for the future Saudi king.
MBS’s psychology – for all its modernist patina of posing as a reformer – is still rooted in his Bedouin past. Being the future king, he considers and treats his people as his property. He is their lord and master. Deals with other states are made by him alone. He decides whether his kingdom will recognise Israel or whether, as is now the case, he could turn to Israel to provide him with missile defence systems.
Although all of these moves are brittle and by nature reversible, given that they are triggered by events outside the region and not within it, there could be light at the end of this dark, dark tunnel of permanent intervention. If regional actors themselves can establish a working relationship with each other – and no more than that is required – stability will not depend on a small group of despots. How will US disengagement shape the Middle East?Read More »
Relations between regional powers are more likely to represent state interests, rather than the personal ones of their leaders. That in itself would be progress, if indeed any of this comes to fruition.
MBZ’s decision to reassess his foreign policy has to be genuine and not a temporary swerve. He is right to reassess his foreign policy. It has been a disaster, a complete waste of his money. It has weakened once strong states, such as Egypt, and caused massive refugee flows.
It has taken eight long years for the penny to drop. But if indeed it has, this realisation presents a genuine opportunity to reshape a post-American Middle East.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.David HearstDavid Hearst is co-founder and editor-in-chief of Middle East Eye. He is a commentator and speaker on the region and analyst on Saudi Arabia. He was The Guardian’s foreign leader writer, and was correspondent in Russia, Europe, and Belfast. He joined the Guardian from The Scotsman, where he was education correspondent.
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