Saturday 5 September 2020

Beirut Port Blast Latest Toll: 190 Killed and $15 Billion in Material Losses

 Beirut Port Disaster Situation Report 30 August 2020 - Lebanese Government

September 5, 2020 Arabi Souri

The latest official update available on the losses of the catastrophe of the Beirut Port explosion last month reveals more shocking figures exceeding the worst estimates reached before.

The losses include a heavy toll of deaths and triple the first estimate in material losses which was by itself overwhelming for the small country Lebanon, already marred with decades of corruption and numerous wars waged against it by Israel, terrorists, feudal warlords, and the lengthy civil war they never recovered from its consequences, in addition to the latest COVID 19 consequences.

The Lebanese governmental weekly report issued on 30 August 2020 titled ‘Beirut Port Disaster Situation Report’ (full pdf report here) counted the following in losses:

• 190 martyrs, 43 of them were Syrians.
• More than 6,500 injured.
• 3 are still missing.
• 300,000 homeless.
• More than 50,000 houses impacted.
• 9 major hospitals affected, of which one is completely non-functioning.
• 49 healthcare centers affected, of which 8 are completely non-functioning.
• 178 public and private schools are damaged.
• 99 public building assessed, of which 2% completely damaged and 18% highly
damaged.
• 235 lots in the affected areas need structural strengthening.
• 113 lots need evacuation.
• 52 lots need isolation.
• 70 heritages buildings required immediate intervention.
• 329 different entities (national, international) are currently active stakeholders
in the Beirut response area.
The report concluded that US$ 15 billion are the cost of direct damages.

Beirut Port Explosion - انفجار مرفأ بيروت
Beirut Port Explosion – 04 August 2020

It’s noticeable that the United States of America, the main actor in all tragedies Lebanon went through and still going through, is bragging about the aid it provided to the country and putting further conditions to deliver that aid has only offered $17 million humanitarian aid. That’s a tiny percentage compared with any other country that offered and already delivered aid to Lebanon.

Furthermore, and to reveal the evil mentality of the US officials, which they do not hide anyway, a top US official visiting Lebanon stated that the tiny aid his country will offer will go through NGOs only bypassing the Lebanese government. NGOs, non-governmental organizations, that were created, trained, groomed, and polished by US federal agencies working as a front for the CIA and the Pentagon, agencies as NED (National Endowment for Democracy) and USAID (United States Agency for International Development), bright names for malign practices, such agencies behind the miserable suffering of human beings around the world wherever the USA force exported its ‘values’ to.

Amb. Jaafari Slams Liars at UN Meeting: SAMS Illegals Embedded with Terrorists

https://www.syrianews.cc/amb-jaafari-slams-liars-un-meeting-sams-illegals-embedded-terrorists/embed/#?secret=LPgygZ3lA6

It’s the remarks conveyed by the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker to his beloved NGO members in Lebanon during his current visit that triggered us to write about the report and compare with the response of the US officials and how they tend to abuse human suffering to further their political agendas, which are always against the interests of the people affected and not at all in the interests of the US citizens, in general, and individually.

The investigations in the port explosion continue with more than two dozen officials are being questioned, most of them are detained, and the main guidelines in the investigations so far imply that there was no areal bombing that triggered the explosion and that a small portion of the 2750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate only exploded, not the full quantity, yet the explosion is categorized as the fourth largest explosion mankind has witnessed around the globe. The quantity that did not contribute to the blast has either been spoiled due to the longevity of storage unprofessionally and other quantities were stolen, or leaked, from the port and given to terrorist groups operating mainly in Syria, and to a lesser extent in Lebanon, hence the non-stop cries of former Lebanese officials calling for an international investigation in the explosion to help them cover their traces.

Forty-Three Syrians Killed in the Beirut Port Explosion

River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

“MISSING WORD” [*See Definition] from Iran to Lebanon to the US

September 04, 2020

by Mansoureh Tajik for the Saker Blog

The scale and complexity of plots against masses of ordinary people, select prominent individuals, and nations have grown so vast that existing words and expressions fail to adequately define and explain them. The word “conspiracy” is bandied about quite a lot, to the point that it feels inadequate, to frame some major and critical events by distinctly different groups of people with diverse backgrounds. Some, for instance, use the term to genuinely warn about intricate and multi-layered schemes that would ultimately result in severe harms to individuals and/or collective masses. Others use it disparagingly to delegitimize discordant statements and expressions that are nonetheless rooted in very legitimate concerns. There are also some who invent stories at an industrial and massive scale in order to deliberately drown signals of truly malevolent plots in deafening noises of colorful parodies.

It is not the aim of this essay to review and evaluate the roster of major nominees to which the term conspiracy has been applied. Nor is it about the people who invoke the term under given pretexts. Rather, I intend to use the standard definition of the word “conspiracy” in this essay to get us closer to disentangling and defining something analogous, a similar process. It is a process that is far more systematically applied, organically managed, and exceedingly convoluted. It is a method that is also much more sinister and one for which we will hopefully have a clearly defined description by the end of the essay but will not have any precise term that could neatly bundle all components together to offer us lexical conveniences.

Others have put much greater efforts into subjects far less serious. Douglas Adams and John Lloyd, for instance, spent good bit of their precious time writing a book of humor, “The Meaning of Liff,” in which they collected “hundreds of common experiences, feelings, situations and even objects which we all know and recognize, but for which no words exist” and joined them in a linguistic matrimony with hundreds of spare words that “spend their time doing nothing but loafing about in signposts pointing at places.” Their mission, as they figured, was “to get these words down off the signposts and into the mouths of babes and sucklings and so on, where they can start earning their keep in everyday conversation and make a more positive contribution to society.”[1]

The world may very well be littered with free-loading words which do not earn their keeps. I do not wish to assume a responsibility as a word sheriff. However, there are indeed some very seriously detrimental mechanisms and organic plots that are concocted by a few to wreak havoc with the existence and meaningful quality of life of many. Such mechanisms and plots, I think, are in dire need of being correctly explained in details and subsequently named. It is not because I consider naming as “an evolutionary necessity fundamental to our ability to distinguish predator from prey” as C. Chang would state,[2] but because naming is the most basic first step in recognizing and dealing with complex problems we are facing today that require much deeper awareness of our own potential roles in them than we are willing to admit.

Onward. Let us first begin with a standard definition of conspiracy. Online Cambridge dictionary defines conspiracy as “a secret agreement made between two or more people or groups to do something bad or illegal that will harm someone else.” The same entry expands the concept and defines a related phrase “Conspiracy of Silence” as “a general agreement to keep silent about a subject for the purpose of keeping it secret.”[3]

Fair enough. But what if there is a secret or a not-so-secret agreement made between two or more people to enlist and coordinate the activities of diverse groups of people and individuals who would each carry out, in disparate cells and compartments, isolated yet inter-linked tasks the sum total of which executes a plan that has as its main goal very serious harms to others or even to the enlisted participants themselves? What would be an appropriate and befitting term for this phenomenon? Furthermore, what if components of that vicious plan are also built upon identified and existing vulnerabilities and routine shortcomings of persons, places, and infrastructures in a given society? What would be the one word that could converge all those pieces and meanings into one distinct and logical bundle of letters?

In this article, I will discuss three specific real life examples of our contemporary societies to help detangle and shed light on individual segments of the above paragraph-long definition for which we do not have any, but would like to have, suitable words.

Example from Iran: Plans to Assassinate Iranian Nuclear Scientists

In a span of less than two years (2009-2011), six prominent Iranian scientists in nuclear physics were assassinated under multiple coordinated planning and executions courtesy of the intelligence agencies of the US, Israel, and the UK, and with immense intelligence help from an “independent” body, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Martyr Mustafa Ahmadi Roshan, Martyr Masood Alimuhammadi, Martyr Reza Ghashghaifard, Martyr Darius Rezainejad, and Martyr Majid Shahriyari were all killed. Freidoon Abbasi Davani and his wife, who was in the car with him at the time of explosion, were critically injured but survived the assassination.

The role of the countries and international bodies named above has been discussed at length by many writers and thinkers in the Western press and media. I do not wish to review their assertions or belabor any of their points here. I am going to briefly point to the role some individuals inside Iran played in these plots since that is actually one of the key points of our topic here.

In Iran, about 53 people were arrested and questioned in connection with those assassinations. The trials for 40 of the accused began in May, 2013.[4] Details about the investigations and the trials were never made public so that the general public could have a full and exact picture of what happened. In cases related to security, intelligence, and counter-intelligence issues, I do not believe there should be a full and detailed disclosure of any sort any way. However, bits and pieces of information from true and false confession interviews that made it through, although not satisfactory, revealed niches that were quite sobering and startling both to the general public and to some of the accused individuals themselves.

Excluding two to three people among the arrested who had direct roles in the killings, most others who had participated in performing apparently innocuous, but still unlawful, tasks did not know they were actually taking part in plans that would ultimately result in killing their own nuclear scientists and damaging their own social wellbeing. Some individuals, for example, had agreed to receive compensation in exchange for keeping a log of the frequency and exact times of targeted individuals’ whereabouts, schedules, their comings and goings for any reason to and from their offices. Apparently they had no knowledge or did not think such information could and would be used in any significantly harmful way. Their task was unlawful, unethical, and against the policy of the places in which they worked.

In addition, security breaches and infiltration by shady characters into the investigations within the Ministry of Information, among other vulnerabilities, led to the slithering away of some key culprits. Had it not been for a serendipitous detection by the intelligence arm of the Revolutionary Guard and an early intervention by the office of the Supreme Leader in the interrogation process, perhaps more damaging events and more killings would have occurred. Several of the people arrested were later freed and compensated a total amount of 4 billion Toman in 2013 for psychological, economic, and reputation damages, according to a statement made by the current Information Minister, Seyyed Mahmoud Alawi, during a closed-session in Majlis last September.[5]

Examining and reviewing the information from multitude of formal and informal sources over the last several years, I was not able to conclude that majority of those who had been arrested and investigated were innocent because most of them had done, albeit unknowingly, one to several unlawful and unethical deeds the sum total of which helped execute successful plans (plotted and coordinated by outsiders) to kill five Iranian nuclear scientists, to seriously injure one, and to cause severe security damages in other areas. I think and I hope that most of them, had they not acted out of carelessness, mindlessness, greed, or whatever other reason, they might not have become pons in a web of deception. God Knows. I, therefore, included this example here not for its importance with from legal, judicial, or intelligence aspects but as it relates to overall structures, components, and inter-linkages of the plots and the role the “insiders” blindly played in the process.

“It is not like you are imagining that the conspiracies against this country are due to delusions and hallucinations. No. This is a fact. Things are being conspired from all directions. It is possible that someone from inside the country moves in the same direction as these plots without knowing at all. To realize this, too, requires sagacity and perceptivity. Some do not possess this perceptivity. We have had experiences with some of them. They don’t know to whose tune they are dancing. But this does not change the facts. Whether they perceive or they do not perceive; whether they know or they do not know. These conspired plots exist. Nevertheless, this country, this system not only does it not crumble or weaken but its scientific institutions, its progressive societies—consisting of this youth who is you— is visibly more forward-looking and advanced today than ten years ago. What does this mean? It means legitimacy and truthfulness. It means authenticity. It means having roots and being original.[6] –Ayatullah Khamenei

Example from Lebanon: Planned “Accidents” in Beirut Port

In the major explosion at Beirut Port on August 4th nearly 200 people died and more than 6,500 people were seriously injured. A few are still missing. Damages to the infrastructure, the economy, and socio-physical fabric of day-to-day living of the ordinary people were enormous. The society as a whole was critically shaken. On Sunday, Sayyed Hasan Nasrullah, as parts of his speech delivered by on the occasion of Ashura, spoke about the incident and emphasized that:

“We ask the Lebanese Military to release the results from a series of technical investigations they have conducted in relation to the explosion disaster in Beirut Port. It is clear that releasing of the results and revealing the outcome of the investigation regarding that event will dismantle all sorts of allegations [against Hizbullah]. Therefore, it is necessary for the outcome of investigation to be announced to the public.”

“Once again, we also insist on a judicial investigation of the Beirut explosion disaster through the judiciary system itself and we believe the judicial bodies must, without considerations and calculations and with seriousness and decisiveness, proceed with its various dimensions and punish the guilty agents.”[7]

This disastrous occurrence would have made for an apt case example for this essay had the results of the investigation been made public already. It was brought about by multi-layer longitudinal plan built upon identified vulnerabilities and routine shortcomings of persons, places, and infrastructures in Lebanon. For the purpose of this essay though, no formal public announcement to which one could refer has been made. Therefore, I would defer dissecting it as an example .

Example from the US: Planned Dismantling of the Police

Articles, films, and other media items abound about the state and the role of the US Police, both as causes and as effects, in the current riots in the United States. It feels more like watching re-runs, or remaking, or sequels to some particularly violent shows every 10 to 20 years. Each new series is getting more violent, more graphic, and more spectacular than the previous ones.

Those interested in sensational aspects of these events, they could just follow the mainstream media presentations and/or some “independent” news blogs and media outlets. There are garden varieties befitting of most tastes. Those interested in a more analytical and academic aspects of the events, Perspective on Policing, published by the National Institute of Justice and US Department of Justice reports feature interesting articles. “The Evolving Strategy of Policing” by Kelling & Moore,[8] “Evolving Strategy of Policing: Case Studies of Strategic Change”[9] by Kelling & Wycoff, and “The Evolving Strategy of Police: A Minority View”[10] by Williams & Murphy are dated but informative, still relevant, and interesting examples.

For the purpose of this essay though, and to elucidate additional segments of the paragraph-long definition for which we have no words, I will briefly examine dimensions of these events that are not sufficiently discussed either in the sensational news or in the academic and analytical articles named above.

Getting help from the familiar health field, I would like to draw a (simplified) parallel between the structure and function of the police in a society and those of the immune system in a human body. Although the role our immune system plays in fighting invading foreign bodies is often highlighted, its most significant and critical role revolves around identifying, isolating, and destroying and/or repairing, and disposing of body’s own rogue and abnormal cells, cells that acquired genetic aberrations during division, toxic accumulations in tissues, organs, joints, and so on. Majority of these functions happen when we are sleeping at night (granted we have not eaten up to our throat before going to bed), or when the body is in a fasting state (which for many, it has become “almost never”. Losing one’s appetite when ill is a healing mechanism.

In cases of autoimmune disorders like allergies, lupus, Grave’s, Hashimoto, Rheumatoid Arthritis, etc., however, the immune system loses the ability to adequately distinguish the healthy and normal cells from the unhealthy and abnormal cells. This dysfunction manifests itself in different ways. For instance, the immune system cells begin to indiscriminately attack various cells in different organs and places in the body, including the healthy cells. They could also become jittery and over-react and make mess of things. [Just an important side note: the immune system is quite capable of gaining back its ability to distinguish and act properly.]

So, let us suppose similar things happen with the policing system in a society. That is, let us consider that the police system in a society loses the ability to distinguish between the good, the bad, and the ugly. Or that it over-reacts due to having been chronically badly trained, or chronically over stimulated, or chronically under nourished, or many other reasons that weaken this system. An abstract from more than thirty years ago (1988):

“Some people consider police services as inappropriate for privatization, arguing that such services are public goods that only government can practically provide. The work of E. S. Savas and others, however, has persuasively demonstrated that many government services are not public goods or, at least, not pure public goods. Police services, in fact, have been successfully financed, through user fees, and delivered, via contracting, by the private sector. Moreover, there are some surprising examples of fully privatized police services, both financed and delivered privately. The major barriers to police privatization include tradition and attitudes, concern about control and accountability, union opposition, legal restrictions, and the difficulty of encouraging all beneficiaries to finance these services voluntarily, or privately. All of these barriers can be surmounted under certain circumstances. There are even signs that the privatization of police services, especially some milder forms of privatization, is gradually taking place.”[11]

So in fact, in a very systematic and step-by step manner all the above-mentioned chronic factors have occurred in a sustained and deliberate ways for decades. But why would anyone, in his rightful, truthful, and just mind, want to deliberately weaken the immune systems of persons or the police systems of societies?

I cannot think of even one good reason for these to come from a rightful, truthful, and just mind. I can think of many reasons for these to ooze out of an otherwise mind. When the immunity of a human body or the police system of a society is dismantled, then their functions could be, for example, outsourced to pharmaceutical profiteers and private security firms. Replacing immunity and security apparatuses are profitable to a few at the expense of many.

I wonder, in the case of the police, do all those who are demanding to dismantle police departments in their local communities, or anywhere else for that matter, know that they, in their own isolated corners, are performing inter-linked tasks the sum total of which executes a plan, agreed upon decades ago by a crooked few, ta plan that has as its main goal very serious harms to the masses of ordinary people, including the enlisted participants themselves? In a society that its most vulnerable is not protected, no one is protected.

To UnConclude: Would it not be nice to have just one word that says all that?

*<em> “MISSING WORD”</em>noun

a secret or a not-so-secret agreement made between two or more people to enlist and coordinate activities of diverse groups of people and individuals who would each carry out, in disparate cells and compartments, isolated yet inter-linked tasks the sum total of which executes a plan that has as its main goal very serious harms to others or to the enlisted participants themselves.

a secret or a not-so-secret agreement made between two or more people about a plan the components of which are built upon identified vulnerabilities and routine shortcomings of persons, places, and infrastructures in a given society and to the detriment of that society and its members:

  • He was not aware that he was part of a <em> “MISSING WORD”</em> to dismantle the police.
  • Their ignorance and mindless participation helped the enemies of their nation to further their <em> “MISSING WORD”</em> to kill the scientists.

References

[1] Adams D & Lloyd J (1983). “The Meaning of Liff.” Published by Pan Books Ltd. Faber & Faber Limited, London, England. ISBN 0330281216.

[2] Chang CR & Bassman R (2019). “Psychiatric Diagnosis and the Power of Names.” Journal of Humanistic Psychology, doi:10.1177/0022167819852786.

[3] Cambridge Dictionary, “Meaning of Conspiracy in English” Accessed online at: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/conspiracy

[4] Tasnim News (2013). “From the trials of the accused in the terror of nuclear scientists to the accusations towards the candidates in the election.” TasnimNews, Khordad 6, 1392 @ 17:34. News Code: 64764.

[5] Tasnim News (2019). “Four Billion was paid to those accused in nuclear scientists’ assassinations after a not-guilty verdict.” TasnimNews, Shahrivar 12, 1398 @ 20:24. News Code: 2089952.

[6] An excerpt from Ayatullah Khameni speech to during a visit by the scientific and academic elites on Aban, 6, 1388 [Oct. 28, 2009]. Available online at: https://farsi.khamenei.ir/speech-content?id=8292

[7] Hussain Abadian R (2020). “Karbala was the scene of the battle of Truth against Falsehood; Today, the US is the epitome of falsehood.” Mehr News Agency, Shahrivar 8, 1399 @ 13:06. News Code: 5011311

[8] Kelling GL & Moore ML (1988). “The Evolving Strategy of Policing.” Perspective on Policing, A publication of the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, and the Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. No. 4, November 1988, Pages 1-15.

[9] Kelling GL & Wycoff MA (2002). “Evolving Strategy of Policing: Case Studies of Strategic Change.” US DOJ Report on a Federally-funded grant, Award Number: 95-IJ-CX-0059. Doc. No. 198029, December 2002.

[10] Williams H & Murphy PV (1990). “The Evolving Strategy of Police: A Minority View.” Perspective on Policing, A publication of the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, and the Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. No. 13, January 1990, Pages 1-15.

[11] Fixler PE & Poole Jr. RW (1988). “Can Police Services Be Privatized?” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 498; The Private Security Industry: Issues and Trends (July 1988), Pages 108-118, Sage Publications, Inc., DOI: 10.2307/1045386


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

الإجازة الرئاسيّة الأميركيّة حبلى بالمفاجآت شينكر لاحتواء المحبَطين من ماكرون

ناصر قنديل

منح الأميركيون بعدما ضمّوا السعودية معهم، فرنسا أمر مهمة لتغطية الإجازة الرئاسية التي تبدأ من أول أيلول وتنتهي أول كانون الأول، والمطلوب من فرنسا خلال هذه الإجازة الرئاسية الأميركية بناء الجسور مع دول وقوى محور المقاومة بعدما فشل الأميركيون والسعودية في قطف ثمار سياسة بناء الجدران بوجهه، وضمان التهدئة خلال هذه الشهور الثلاثة، واختبار نموذج التسوية الذي يرغب الفرنسيون البدء به من لبنان لرؤية مدى صلاحيته للتعميم، فيما يراهن الأميركيون على مفاعيل ما بدأوه بين الإمارات وكيان الاحتلال لتعزيز الوضعين الانتخابيين للرئيس دونالد ترامب، وفتح الباب أمام كيان الاحتلال لاختبار الاستدارة نحو الخليج بدلاً من الغرق في مستنقعات المشرق، وتعويض خسائره الناجمة عن مشروع التسوية اللبنانية، خصوصاً في مجال ترسيم حدود النفط والغاز مع لبنان، التي يحملها معاون وزير الخارجية الأميركية ديفيد شينكر إلى بيروت، وهو يصرخ ليل نهار بلغة التصعيد الكلامي ضد المقاومة، التي يأمل أن يكون عرضه للترسيم مستجيباُ لخطوطها الحمراء، وسيكون الوقت متاحاً لاستكشاف النتائج بعد نهاية الإجازة الرئاسية، وبلورة السياسات نحو سورية ولبنان وفلسطين من وحي عائدات التوجه نحو الخليج.

خلال ثلاثة شهور سيغيب الأميركيون عن المنطقة عملياً، وسيتصاعد الصراع الفرنسي التركي في المتوسط، وستقف روسيا وإيران وسورية وقوى المقاومة، في منتصف الطريق لتلقي العروض الأفضل ورفع سقوف الطلبات، باعتبار موقعها الجيواستراتيجي هو المرجّح، وموقفها هو بيضة القبان في هذا الصراع، وخلال ثلاثة شهور سيكون بيد المقاومة في لبنان قدرة تأثير إقليميّة فاعلة بما يتناسب مع المعادلات والمتغيرات، يمثلها حق الرد الذي أكدت المقاومة الالتزام به مجدداً، وبأن تكون حصيلته قتل جندي إسرائيلي على الأقل، والردّ صالح للتحوّل إلى ما هو أكبر، وفقاً لطبيعة الهدف، وخلال ثلاثة شهور سيكون القتال على الجبهة اليمنية الخليجية مرشحاً للتصعيد، وبعد التطبيع الإماراتي الإسرائيلي انتقلت الإمارات من موقع الصديق المطلوب مراعاته بالنسبة لإيران إلى موقع العدو المطلوب عقابه، وبالتالي زالت الوساطة الإيرانيّة التي كانت تمنح الإمارات استثناء من العقاب الذي نالت السعودية منه النصيب الوافر، واستهداف منشآت حيوية في الإمارات التي وصفها اليمنيون بمدن الزجاج سينقل التعامل مع التطبيع من مستوى إلى آخر في الخليج والمنطقة.

خلال ثلاثة شهور سينطلق مسار فلسطينيّ شكل لقاء الأمناء العامين للفصائل أمس، بدعوة من الرئيس الفلسطيني ومشاركة الجميع نقطة بدايته، ويبدو أن إعلان العودة إلى ما قبل اتفاقات أوسلو يشكل أبرز السيناريوات المتداولة، عبر منظمة تحرير تضم الجميع والانسحاب من اتفاقات أوسلو، وسحب الاعتراف بكيان الاحتلال، ضمن روزنامة الشهر الأول، للانطلاق خلال الشهر الثاني إلى تزخيم الانتفاضة في القدس والضفة الغربية والداخل الفلسطيني والشتات، ليصل الشهر الثالث والجهوزية للانتقال بالمقاومة المسلّحة من حماية غزة وبناء ميزان الردع حولها، إلى تصعيد العمليات في الضفة والقدس والأراضي المحتلة عام 1948، وسيكون من حسن حظ الأميركيين إذا انتخبوا جورج بايدن بدلاً من تجديد ولاية دونالد ترامب، لأنه سيكون بمستطاعه القول إن الخراب ناتج عن سوء إدارة سلفه، ليتعامل مع الوقائع الجديدة.

شينكر لاحتواء المحبَطين من ماكرون

لأن لا تفاهمات كبرى ولا تسويات كبرى، تستدعي التضحية بالمراهنين على الدور الأميركي أو التفاوض على ثمن لإسكاتهم، فإن هؤلاء لا يزالون حاجة أميركية، فهم أوراق ضغط تفاوضية، وهم احتياط يجب الحفاظ عليه إذا فشلت أنصاف التسويات التي كلف الرئيس الفرنسي بإنجازها.

هذا هو التوصيف الذي أعطاه سياسي متابع للمراحل التي مرّ بها الأميركيون بأحداث ومنعطفات مشابهة سواء ما قبل انسحابهم من لبنان عام 1984، وما قبل اتفاق الطائف، ويمرّون به اليوم، حيث يعلن المسؤولون الأميركيون توفير الغطاء اللازم لتقدّم الرئيس الفرنسي أمانويل ماكرون في خطة بناء الجسور بعدما فشلت سياسة بناء الجدران، ويتولّون هم عبر مواقف إعلامية تذكر بالمواقف التقليدية العدائية لإيران والمقاومة طمأنة جماعاتهم بأنهم لم يبدلوا مواقفهم، ويبذلون بالتوازي جهودهم لاحتواء غضب وإحباط المتعلقين بحبال السياسات الأميركية، ويعدونهم بالمزيد من المال الخليجي، على قاعدة أن الأولوية ليست الآن للشأن اللبناني ويجب الانتظار إلى ما بعد الانتخابات الأميركية، وبانتظار ذلك تجب حماية الموقف الإماراتي في التطبيع مع كيان الاحتلال.

ديفيد شينكر معاون وزير الخارجية الأميركية في بيروت لمواكبة زيارة الرئيس الفرنسي بإبلاغ القوى الأساسية في لبنان دعم المبادرة الفرنسية، ولتفعيل مفاوضات ترسيم الحدود ضمن إطار نيات التهدئة وعدم التصعيد، وبالتوازي الوقوف على خاطر الذين بقوا يصرخون ليل نهار بأن الأولوية هي لوضع سلاح المقاومة على الطاولة ورفض مشاركة حزب الله في أي حكومة وفوجئوا بماكرون يقول إن أمر السلاح غير مطروح لأن المطلوب التعاون مع حزب الله في تشكيل حكومة جديدة.

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River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

“Israeli” Minister: We’ll Act against Sale of F-35s to UAE, Including in US Congress

“Israeli” Minister: We’ll Act against Sale of F-35s to UAE, Including in US Congress

By Staff, Agencies

The “Israeli” entity’s so-called intelligence minister on Friday said Tel Aviv would firmly oppose the sale of F-35 fighters and other advanced weaponry to the United Arab Emirates, while continuing to deny the “Israeli” entity had given its approval – tacit or otherwise – to such a deal.

Eli Cohen told the “Israeli” Kan TV news: “We oppose [it]. We will not agree to any sale… We will act against the sale of any weaponry that will hurt ‘Israel’s’ qualitative military edge, including the F-35.”

His comments came as the entity’s Channel 12 news reported that the entity and the UAE were gearing up for a signing ceremony of their normalization agreement in Washington within the next 10 days.

But the report also said that before such a signing takes place, the UAE is demanding that “Israeli” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stop making public comments against the potential arms sale.

The prime minister on Friday denied a New York Times report that again claimed he had given his okay to the weapons deal, which Washington appears keen to carry out.

Cohen backed the premier, telling Kan: “I was at the cabinet meetings. Today I spoke with the prime minister who said unequivocally that there is no agreement and he didn’t give an okay.”

Cohen asserted that such reports were concocted by “people on the left who find it hard to see ‘Israel’ manage to make an agreement of peace for peace” rather than in exchange for security concessions.

Asked if “Israeli” would seek to oppose the passage of such an arms deal when it comes to the US Congress for approval, through lobbyist groups such as the American “Israel” Public Affairs Committee [AIPAC], Cohen answered in the affirmative.

As for the signing ceremony, the Channel 12 report said one date floated as a possibility is September 13 – the 27th anniversary of the White House signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords between the entity and the Palestinians. Such timing could serve Netanyahu’s narrative of changing the paradigm of land for peace.

This week saw and “Israeli” delegation make a historic trip to Abu Dhabi on an El Al flight to continue work on the normalization agreement. But it also saw continued controversy over the US-UAE weapons deal that appears according to multiple reports to be part of the package.

Netanyahu again denied Friday that he had removed opposition to the sale, after a New York Times report on Thursday said the premier privately stopped opposing the sale of the planes to Abu Dhabi, despite repeated public assurances that he is against the deal.

“Repeating a false allegation against Prime Minister Netanyahu does not make it true,” Netanyahu’s Office said in a statement. “At no point in the talks with the United States leading to the historic breakthrough with the United Arab Emirates on August 13 did the prime minister give ‘Israel’s’ consent to the sale of advanced weapons to the Emirates.”

Yesh Atid-Telem MK Moshe Ya’alon, a former minister of war under Netanyahu and “Israeli” Occupation Forces [IOF] chief of staff, asked for the Knesset “Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee” to discuss the UAE’s purchase of F-35s.

“I intend to demand close parliamentary oversight of the strategic dialogue between ‘Israel’ and the US. This dialogue can’t be managed any longer by Netanyahu and the national security adviser [Meir Ben-Shabbat] because there’s a heavy suspicion that the decisions being made are tainted with considerations not in line with the strategic interests of ‘Israel’,” Ya’alon was quoted saying by the “Israeli” Walla news site.

The New York Times report, which cited unnamed sources involved in the talks, claimed that along with the ultra-advanced jets and Reaper drones, the deal also includes radar-blocking EA-18G Growler jets, which could erode the effectiveness of “Israel’s” air defense capabilities and put the UAE at a considerable military advantage.

The centerpiece of the deal, however, are the F-35 fighter jets, which the UAE has sought to purchase for several years. The sale has seemingly been held up due to a US commitment to protect the “Israeli” entity’s military edge in the region, which would preclude selling weapons of the same caliber to both the entity and Arab states without an okay from Tel Aviv.

A recent announcement that the UAE is normalizing ties with the entity has brought the weapons deal back to the fore, though after an “Israeli” report that linked the forging of ties with the lifting of the entity’s objection, Netanyahu insisted that he still objects to the sale and that he has repeatedly informed Washington of his opposition.

But officials told The New York Times that Netanyahu’s statements were “false.”

The report also quoted Hussein Ibish, a researcher at Washington’s Arab Gulf States Institute, who said officials from the US, UAE and the “Israeli” entity all told him Netanyahu gave the weapons deal a green light.

Netanyahu told the Emiratis that “there would not be substantive and categorical opposition,” he said.

While the Emirates initially reacted angrily to Netanyahu’s comments against the deal, US officials have since made clear to them that the sale remains on the table and Netanyahu’s comments were intended to soothe a public outcry over the sale, according to the report.

Among those who have expressed concern over the weapons deal is Minister of War Benny Gantz, who was kept out of the loop on normalization efforts with the UAE, but has since spoken out strongly against the sale. His ministry would normally be given the task of vetting any proposed sales to determine the entity’s position.

US officials and some Netanyahu allies insist that the jets would not erode the entity’s edge as they would be used to defend against the common enemy of Iran, as well as the fact that the UAE and the “Israeli” entity are now moving to cement their alliance. But others fear that the planes could be passed to another country or be used against the entity by Abu Dhabi should the region’s complicated network of alliances and enemies shift significantly.

Media commentators have noted that with US and “Israeli” officials touting further potential normalization deals with Oman, Bahrain, Sudan and even Saudi Arabia, a sale of advanced weapons to the UAE could set a precedent for further such regional deals, eroding the entity’s military advantage.

Abu Dhabi has indicated that while there is no direct link between the diplomatic initiative and the arms sales, normalization with the “Israeli” entity should make it easier to push the deal through.

Netanyahu has touted the UAE’s decision to establish open ties with the entity as the crowning achievement of his years of diplomatic work aimed at opening up the Gulf to the entity. “Israelis” have generally welcomed the deal, which came with an “Israeli” promise to suspend plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

India implodes its own New Silk Road

 Source

India implodes its own New Silk Road

September 04, 2020

by Pepe Escobar with permission from the author and first posted at Asia Times

There was a time when New Delhi was proudly selling the notion of establishing its own New Silk Road – from the Gulf of Oman to the intersection of Central and South Asia – to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Now it looks like the Indians have stabbed themselves in the back.

In 2016, Tehran and New Delhi signed a deal to build a 628-km rail line from strategic Chabahar port to Zahedan, very close to the Afghan border, with a crucial extension to Zaranj, in Afghanistan, and beyond.

The negotiations involved Iranian Railways and Indian Railway Constructions Ltd. But in the end nothing happened – because of Indian foot-dragging. So Tehran has decided to build the railway anyway, with its own funds – $400 million – and completion scheduled for March 2022.

The railway was supposed to be the key transportation corridor linked to substantial Indian investments in Chabahar, its port of entry from the Gulf of Oman for an alternative New Silk Road to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Upgrading rail/road infrastructure from Afghanistan to its neighbors Tajikistan and Uzbekistan would be the next step. The whole operation was inscribed in a trilateral India-Iran-Afghanistan deal – signed in 2016 in Tehran by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and then Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

The unofficial New Delhi excuse revolves around fears that the project would be slammed with US sanctions. New Delhi actually did get a Trump administration sanctions waiver for Chabahar and the rail line to Zahedan. The problem was to convince an array of investment partners, all of them terrified of being sanctioned.

In fact, the whole saga has more to do with Modi’s wishful thinking of expecting to get preferential treatment under the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which relies on a de facto Quad (US, India, Australia, Japan) containment of China. That was the rationale behind New Delhi deciding to cut off all its oil imports from Iran.

So far all practical purposes, India threw Iran under the bus. No wonder Tehran decided to move on its own, especially now with the $400 billion, 25-year “Comprehensive Plan for Cooperation between Iran and China”, a deal that seals a strategic partnership between China and Iran.

In this case, China may end up exercising control over two strategic “pearls” in the Arabian Sea/Gulf of Oman only 80 km away from each other: Gwadar, in Pakistan, a key node of the $61 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Chabahar.

A Tale of Two Ports: Gwadar versus Chahbahar - World News Report
Added

Tehran, so far, has denied that Chabahar port will be offered on a lease to Beijing. But what is a real possibility, apart from Chinese investments in an oil refinery near Chabahar, and even, in the long run, in the port itself, is an operational link between Gwadar and Chabahar. That will be complemented by the Chinese operating the port of Bandar-e-Jask in the Gulf of Oman, 350 km to the west of Chabahar and very close to the hyper-strategic Strait of Hormuz.

How corridors attract

Not even a Hindu deity on hangover could possibly imagine a more counter-productive “strategy” for Indian interests in case New Delhi backs off from its cooperation with Tehran.

Let’s look at the essentials.

Chinese prisoners working on CPEC projects: Pakistani lawmaker
Added

What Tehran and Beijing will be working on is a de facto massive expansion of CPEC, with Gwadar linked to Chabahar and further onwards to Central Asia and the Caspian via Iranian railways, as well as connected to Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean (via Iraq and Syria), all the way to the EU.

India and China in Central Asia: Understanding the new rivalry in the heart  of Eurasia | ORF
Added

This game-changing progress will be at the heart of the whole Eurasian integration process – uniting China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and of course Russia, which is linked to Iran via the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Added

For the moment, for all its hefty reverberations in multiple areas – upgrade of energy infrastructure, refurbishing of ports and refineries, construction of a connectivity corridor, investments in manufacturing, and a steady supply of Iranian oil and gas, a matter of national security for China – there’s no question that the Iran-China deal is being effectively downplayed by both sides.

The reasons are self-evident: not to raise the Trump administration’s ire to even more incandescent levels, considering both actors are considered “existential threats”. Still, Mahmoud Vezi, chief of staff for President Rouhani, guarantees the final Iran-China deal with be signed by March 2021.

CPEC, meanwhile, is on a roll. What Chabahar was supposed to do for India is already in effect at Gwadar – as transit trade to Afghanistan started only a few days ago, with bulk cargo arriving from the UAE. Gwadar is already establishing itself as a key transit hub to Afghanistan – way ahead of Chabahar.

For Kabul, the strategic factor is essential. Afghanistan essentially depends on overland routes from Pakistan – some can be extremely unreliable – as well as Karachi and Port Qasim. Especially for southern Afghanistan, the overland link from Gwadar, through Balochistan, is much shorter and safer.

For Beijing, the strategic factor is even more essential. For China, Chabahar would not be a priority, because access to Afghanistan is easier, for instance, via Tajikistan.

But Gwadar is a completely different story. It’s being configured, slowly but surely, as the key Maritime Silk Road hub connecting China with the Arabian Sea, the Middle East and Africa, with Islamabad collecting hefty transit funds. Win-win in a nutshell – but always taking into consideration that protests and challenges from Balochistan simply won’t disappear, and require very careful management by Beijing-Islamabad.

Chabahar-Zahedan was not the only recent setback for India. India’s External Affairs Ministry has recently admitted that Iran will develop the massive Farzad-B gas field in the Persian Gulf “on its own” and India might join “appropriately at a later stage”. The same “at a later stage” spin was applied by New Delhi for Chabahar-Zahedan.

The exploration and production rights for Farzad B were already granted years ago for India’s state company ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL). But then, again, nothing happened – due to the proverbial specter of sanctions.

Sanctions, by the way, had been in effect already under Obama. Yet at the time, India and Iran at least traded goods for oil. Farzad B was scheduled to be back on track after the signing of the JCPOA in 2015. But then Trump’s sanctions iced it again.

It doesn’t take a PhD in political science to ascertain who may eventually take over Farzad B: China, especially after the signing of the 25-year partnership next year.

India, against its own energy and geostrategic interests, has in fact been reduced to the status of hostage of the Trump administration. The real target of applying Divide and Rule to India-Iran is to prevent them from trading in their own currencies, bypassing the US dollar, especially when it comes to energy.

The Big Picture though is always about New Silk Road progress across Eurasia. With increasing evidence of closer and closer integration between China, Iran and Pakistan, what’s clear is that India remains integrated only with its own inconsistencies.


River to Sea Uprooted Palestinian   
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

دوافع التحرك الفرنسي في لبنان وحظوظ نجاحه

العميد د. أمين محمد حطيط

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فجأة يجد لبنان نفسه أمام اهتمام فرنسي غير مسبوق بنوعه وحجمه وعمقه، تحرك يقوده الرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون شخصياً، وينفذ وفقاً لخطة عمل واضحة مقترنة بجدول زمني لا يحتمل المماطلة والتسويف، ما يؤكد جدّيتها البعيدة المدى ويظهر انّ صاحبها قرّر ان ينجح ولا يتقبّل فكرة الفشل في التحرك، فرصيده الشخصي في الميزان كما قال. انه الاهتمام الفرنسي بلبنان الذي يثير أسئلة مركزية حول دوافعه، ثم عن حظوظ نجاحه في منطقة يُعتبر العمل فيها صعباً ومعقداً ومحفوفاً بالمخاطر.

ونبدأ بالدوافع والأهداف، ونذكر أنه في العلاقات الدولية ليس هناك ما يسمّى جمعيات خيرية وتقديمات مجانية فلكلّ شيء ثمن ولكلّ عطاء مقابل. وبالتالي عندما نسأل عن دوافع وأهداف فرنسا من التحرك يعني السؤال ضمناً عن المصالح الفرنسية خاصة والغربية عامة التي تريد فرنسا تحقيقها عبر تحركها الناشط هذا.

وفي البحث عن تلك المصالح والأهداف نجد أنها من طبيعة استراتيجية سياسية واقتصادية وامنية، تفرض نفسها على فرنسا في مرحلة حرجة يمرّ بها الشرق الأوسط والعالم. حيث اننا في مخاض ولادة نظام عالمي جديد يلد من رحم الشرق الأوسط، الذي يتعرّض الآن لأكبر مراجعة لحدود النفوذ والسيطرة فيه. وتعلم فرنسا انّ من يمسك بورقة او بموقع في هذه المنطقة يحجز لنفسه حيّزاً يناسبه في النظام العالم الجديد، الذي ستحدّد أحجام النفوذ فيه وترسم حدودها انطلاقاً من فعالية تلك الأوراق التي يملكها الطرف ومساحة النفوذ التي يشغلها وحجم التحالفات التي ينسجها في إطار تشكيل المجموعات الاستراتيجية التي يقوم عليها النظام العالم العتيد.

وفي هذا الإطار تعلم فرنسا انّ ما أخذته من معاهدة التقاسم في سايكس بيكو يلفظ أنفاسه اليوم، وانّ هناك توزيعاً جديداً بين أطراف منهم من جاء حديثاً ومنهم من يريد استعادة دور سقط قبل 100 عام ومنهم من يريد المحافظة على مواقعه التي استقرّ بها بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية. ولأجل ذلك ترى فرنسا انّ لبنان هو المنطقة الأسهل والموقع الأكثر أمناً لتحركها واحتمال النجاح فيه أفضل بعد ان تهدّدت مواقعها في معظم المنطقة. وتراهن فرنسا في ذلك على خصوصية بعض المناطق مشرقياً ولبنانياً ثقافياً وعقائدياً بما يعقد حركة أقرانها الغربيين ويسهّل حركتها بعد ان احتفظت بعلاقات مميّزة مع فئات محدّدة خلافاً للموقف الانكلوسكسوني منهم. (إيران وحزب الله)

كما تعتبر فرنسا انّ لها في لبنان صلات مباشرة او غير مباشرة، قديمة او مستحدثة مع جميع الطوائف والمكونات اللبنانية بشكل يمكّنها من حوار الجميع وليس أمراً عابراً أن تلبّي جميع القوى السياسية الأساسية ذات التمثيل الشعبي والنيابي الوازن في لبنان، أن تلبّي دعوة الرئيس الفرنسي إلى طاولة برئاسته ويضع معهم او يطرح او يملي عليهم خطة عمل لإنقاذ لبنان ويحصل على موافقتهم للعمل والتنفيذ ضمن مهلة زمنية محدّدة.

ومن جهة أخرى نرى انّ فرنسا تريد ان تقطع الطريق في لبنان أمام المشروع التركي لاجتياح المنطقة بدءاً من العراق وسورية ولبنان وصولاً الى لبيبا التي كانت فرنسا أساساً في إسقاط حكمها بقيادة القذافي ثم وجدت نفسها اليوم خارج المعادلات التي تتحكم بالميدان الليبي حيث تتقدّم تركيا هناك على أيّ أحد آخر.

بالإضافة إلى ذلك ترى فرنسا أنّ انهيار لبنان كلياً سيضع الغرب أمام مأزقين خطيرين الأول متصل بطبيعة من يملأ الفراغ ويقبض على البلاد بعد الانهيار، وفي هذا لا يناقش أحد بأنّ المقاومة ومحورها هم البديل، والثاني متصل بالنازحين السوريين واللاجئين الفلسطينيين الذين لن يكون لهم مصلحة في البقاء في بلد منهار لا يؤمّن لهم متطلبات العيش وستكون هجرتهم غرباً شبه أكيدة بما يهدّد الأمن والاقتصاد الأوروبيين.

أما على الاتجاه الاقتصادي المباشر، فانّ فرنسا تعلم عبر شركاتها التي تداولت بملف النفط والغاز المرتقب اكتشافه في لبنان، انّ ثروة لبنان تقدّر بمئات المليارات من الدولارات وانّ حضورها في لبنان يضمن لها حصة من هذه الثروة التي تعتبر اليوم عنواناً من أهمّ عناوين الصراع في شرقي المتوسط.

أضف الى كلّ ما تقدّم الخطر الاستراتيجي الكبير الذي يخشى الغرب من تحوّل أو إمكانية تحوّل لبنان الى الشرق والصين تحديداً ما يحرم الغرب وأوروبا وفرنسا باباً استراتيجياً واقتصادياً عاماً للعبور الى غربي آسيا.

نكتفي بهذا دون الخوض بأسباب تاريخية وثقافية وفكرية إلخ… تربط فرنسا بلبنان وتدفعها الى “شنّ هذا الهجوم” لإنقاذه من الانهيار، وانتشاله من القعر الذي قاده السياسيون اليه. فهل ستتمكن فرنسا من النجاح؟

في البدء يجب لأن نذكر بأنّ أكثر من لاعب إقليمي ودولي يتحرك او يحضر للتحرك او يطمح بالعمل على المسرح اللبناني ذي الخصوصية الاستراتيجية التي ينفرد بها، وبالتالي ان الفشل والنجاح لأيّ فريق يكون وفقاً لإمكاناته ثم لقدراته على الاستفادة من إمكانات البعض دعماً لحركته، وتخطيه لخطط البعض الآخر التي تعرقل تلك لحركة. ففرنسا تعلم انها ليست بمفردها هنا وانّ المكونات السياسية في لبنان ترتبط طوعاً او ضغطاً بمرجعيات خارجية لا تتخطاها. ولذلك نرى انّ حظوظ فرنسا بالنجاح مقترنة بما يلي:

1

ـ العامل الأميركي. حتى الآن تعتبر أميركا صاحبة اليد الأقوى في القدرة على التخريب والتعطيل في لبنان، وصحيح انّ أميركا فقدت سلطة القرار الحاسم في لبنان بسبب وجود المقاومة فيه، إلا أنها احتفظت الى حدّ بعيد بالفيتو وبالقدرة على التخريب والتعطيل إما مباشرة بفعل تمارسه أو عبر وكلائها المحليين. وعلى فرنسا ان تتقي خطر التخريب الأميركي ولا تركن الى ما تعلنه أميركا من تطابق الأهداف الفرنسية والأميركية في لبنان، والى قرار أميركا بإنجاح المسعى الفرنسي، فالموقف الأميركي المعلن متصل بالمرحلة القائمة في أميركا والإقليم وحتى الانتخابات الرئاسية فقد تكون أميركا استعانت بفرنسا للتحرك لملء فراغ عارض من أجل تأخير انهيار لبنان ومنع وقوعه في اليد التي تخشى أميركا رؤيته فيها. وقد تكون الحركة الفرنسية بالمنظور الأميركي نوعاً آخر أو صيغة عملية من القرار 1559 الذي صنعاه معاً، ونفذاه معاً ثم استحوذت أميركا على المتابعة فيه. نقول هذا رغم علمنا بتبدّل الظروف بين اليوم والعام 2004، ما يجعلنا نتمسّك بفكرة التمايز بين الموقفين الفرنسي والأميركي وهذا التمايز يضع المسعى الفرنسي في دائرة خطر النسف او التخريب الأميركي الذي احتاطت له أميركا فربطت النزاع فيه من خلال موقف وكلائها من المبادرة الفرنسية بدءاً برفض تسمية مصطفى أديب رئيساً للحكومة.

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ـ عامل المقاومة ومحورها. يجب على فرنسا ان تعلم وتتصرف بموجب هذا العلم انّ المقاومة في لبنان هي الفريق الأقوى بذاتها والطرف الأوسع تمثيلاً في لبنان والجهة الأبعد عمقاً إقليمياً فيه استراتيجيا، وبالتالي لا يمكن لأيّ مسعى في لبنان ان يُكتب له نجاح انْ كان في مواجهة المقاومة او على حسابها. ونحن نرى حتى الآن انّ فرنسا تدرك جيداً هذا الأمر وقد برعت في التعامل معه بواقعية ومنطق، لكن لا تكفي رسائل الطمأنينة بل يجب ان يكون الأمر ملازماً لأيّ تدبير او تصرف لاحق، ونحن نسجل بإيجابية السلوك الفرنسي في هذا المضمار حتى الآن.

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ـ العامل الإقليمي. وهنا ينبغي الحذر والاحتياط في مواجهة أحداث وسلوكيات إقليمية طارئة او عارضة. فعلى فرنسا ان تعلم انّ جزءاً من مبادرتها يتناقض مع السعي التركي والأداء السعودي في لبنان، فضلاً عن الإمارات “المزهوة اليوم بصلحها مع “إسرائيل” وتطمح بفضاء استراتيجي لها في لبنان. لذلك يجب النظر لدور هذه الأطراف التي لها أو باتت لها أياد تخريبية واضحة كما انّ للسعودية قدرة على الضغط لمنع فرنسا من النجاح. ويكفي التوقف عند التناقض الرئيسي مرحلياً بين فرنسا والمعسكر الذي تقوده أميركا ومعها السعودية والإمارات حول حزب الله وسلاحه والعلاقة به لمنع فرنسا من النجاح لأن نجاحها مع تأجيل ملفّ السلاح خلافاً للرغبة السعودية الإماراتية الأميركية لا يروق لهم. ومن جهة أخرى يمكن الاستفادة إيجاباً من الموقف المصري الذي قد يعطي زخماً للتحرك الفرنسي.

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ـ عامل الوقت. ليس أمام فرنسا سنين للتنفيذ بل هي فترة لا تتعدّى الأشهر الثلاثة، فإنْ نجحت كان لها ما أرادت وإنْ فشلت فإنّ متغيّرات ستحصل أميركياً وإقليمياً تجعل من متابعة المبادرة أمراً صعباً وتجعل النجاح مستحيلاً، وعليه إما ان نطوي العام على نجاح في الإنقاذ بيد فرنسية اوان ننسى كل شيء متصل بها.

أستاذ جامعي ـ باحث استراتيجي

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