Uprooted Palestinian: SALAM ALQUDS ALAYKUM – سلام القدس عليكم: Macron

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Sunday, 5 December 2021

جورج قرداحي: الاستقالة والتوقيت والضمانات

السبت 4 كانون أول 2021

ناصر قنديل

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منذ اليوم الأول للأزمة التي افتتحها القرار السعودي بوقف العلاقات الدبلوماسية والإقتصادية مع لبنان، وضعنا استقالة الوزير جورج قرداحي خيارا في سياق المعالجة لا ينتقص من شجاعة وفروسية موقف الوزير قرداحي، فقلنا في مقالة 1-11-2021 “حل الأزمة ليس عند الوزير جورج قرداحي، فلا تلقوا بأحمال كل هذا التخلف على كاهله، ويكفيه فخراً أنه أضاء على مظلومية اليمن، وأضاء على معاني السيادة، وسواء استقال لمنع أن تستقيل الحكومة وندخل في الفراغ والفوضى ويتهدد سلمنا الأهلي، أو بقي لأن الموقف سلاح، فقد قدم المثال على ما يجب أن يكون عليه مفهوم السيادة والحرية والاستقلال، التي تختزنها الأزمة الراهنة، والتي يكثر الآخرون استعمالها كسلع لا كقيم أيضاً، حتى صارت ثلاثية حرية سيادة استقلال، تذكرنا بثلاثية الفوال، توم وحامض وزيت”. والسبب لجعل الاستقالة خياراً يعود لمعادلة وضعها الوزير قرداحي بنفسه، وهي لا لاستقالة الاذعان واستقالة العقاب، وشاركه الحلفاء بإضافة “لا للإقالة” إليها، وربط الاستقالة بضمانات توظيفها لحل الأزمة، كنقطة انطلاق بقيت بعيدة طالما أخفق رئيس الحكومة في تقديمها، وجاءت بها زيارة الرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون إلى الرياض وطلبه للاستقالة كرسالة حسن نية لبنانية للحل، تتيح له أن يطلب رسالة مقابلة لها، لتقدم التوقيت الذي وجد فيه قرداحي اللحظة المناسبة، فما هي الحسابات؟

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تقف فرنسا خلف بقاء الحكومة، بينما تطلب السعودية استقالتها وهي تعلم أن الفراغ هو البديل، وبالاستناد إلى الموقف الفرنسي وبنسبة معينة الموقف الأميركي الرافضين لإستقالة الحكومة، صمد رئيس الحكومة امام الضغوط السعودية التي طالبته بالإستقالة، ثم دعته لإقالة الوزير قرداحي، وبالإستناد إلى إستحالة إستقالة الحكومة، تمكن حلفاء الوزير قرداحي من تثبيت رفض الإقالة، بعدما كان رئيس الحكومة يقول الإقالة او استقالة الحكومة، والحلفاء وقرداحي لا يريدون تحمل مسؤولية اخذ البلد إلى الفراغ ولا يريدون هذا الفراغ، وقد بذلوا جهودا وقدموا تنازلات كي تكون هناك حكومة لإدراكهم أن مبدأ وجود حكومة في لبنان يستحق التضحية، وهكذا تمت صياغة معادلة توافق عليها قدراحي والحلفاء وترك له تقدير فرص السير بها، وهي ترجمة الجمع بين التمسك ببقاء الحكومة، والتمسك برفض الإذعان للإملاءات، وفق عبارة أطلقها قرداحي عنوانها، الضمانات، أي لا استقالة مجانية للاسترضاء، ولا تمسك بالمقعد الوزاري إذا أتيحت فرص للحلول، وكانت الاستقالة نقطة انطلاقها، وبات التمسك بعدم الاستقالة إقفالاً لباب الحل وفتحاً لباب استقالة الحكومة.

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قد لا ينجح الرئيس الفرنسي في فتح باب الحل مع السعودية، لكن تمسك الوزير قرداحي بعدم الاستقالة كان سيتم تحميله مسؤولية هذا الفشل، سواء من قبل الرئيس الفرنسي أو من قبل رئيس الحكومة، ومعهما جزء كبير من اللبنانيين في السياسة والمجتمع، سيخرجون جميعاً للقول إن حزب الله منع قرداحي من الإستقالة ودفع بلبنان إلى الخراب، وسيكون خيار لعب ورقة استقالة الحكومة تحت شعار تفادي المزيد من إجراءات الغضب السعودي وارداً، أما وأن الرئيس الفرنسي أخذ على عاتقه أن يجلب مقابل الاستقالة خطوة مشابهة على طريق حل الأزمة تفتح الباب لحوار حول الخلافات أو المشكلات العالقة، فما فعله قرداحي هو وضع الأمور بين فرضيتي، نجاح ماكرون، وبالتالي تكون الاستقالة قد أدت مهمتها في فتح الطريق لإنهاء الأزمة، وهذا هو مفهوم المسؤولية الوطنية الذي لم يحد عنه قرداحي، أو فشل ماكرون، وتكون الاستقالة قطعت الطريق على تحميل قرداحي وحلفائه مسؤولية هذا الفشل، وتظهير المسؤولية السعودية عن إفشال مساعي الرئيس الفرنسي، وما ينتج عن ذلك من تعزيز لعناصر بقاء الحكومة وقطع طريق استقالتها، وإسقاط منطق سحب الذرائع بدليل أن الذريعة الرئيسية تم سحبها ولم يتغير شيء.

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الذين ينتقدون الوزير قرداحي وحلفائه في قرار الاستقالة الذي اتخذه ودعموه، ويحاسبونه بمعايير السيادة والكرامة والعنفوان، التي رافقت رفضه للاستقالة، عليهم أن يتخيلوا ما سيحدث لو لم تتم الاستقالة، وتم تصوير الأمور وفق صورة تقول إن كل شيء كان جاهزاً لعودة العلاقات واستئناف الصادرات اللبنانية ووقف أي إجراءات عدائية أخرى، لو جاء الرئيس الفرنسي وقد سبقته استقالة الوزير قرداحي كعلامة حسن نية لبنانية طلبتها السعودية، وأن عدم حدوث ذلك يؤكد نوايا لبنانية سلبية، ولذلك تتفهم فرنسا المزيد من الاجراءات السعودية وليس فقط البقاء على الاجراءات السابقة، وبالتوازي سحب الغطاء لبقاء الحكومة، وهو أمر كاف ليعود رئيس الحكومة لخيار استقالة حكومته، وتصعيد الوضع الداخلي على قاعدة استعصاء تشكيل حكومة جديدة، ورفع وتيرة التصعيد المذهبي، في ظل وضع صعب اقتصادياً وأمنياً تعيشه المناطق اللبنانية كافة، وعندها سيخرج الكثيرون يوجهون الإتهام إلى قرداحي والحلفاء بالتسبب بالخراب.

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لم يخطئ الوزير قرداحي باستقالته أمس كما لم يخطئ من قبل برفضها، وترجم في المرتين مفهوم السيادة بصفتها القرار الوطني النابع من حساب المصلحة الوطنية لا الاستجابة لإملاءات خارجية.

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هل تفتح الخطوة الباب أمام تسوية بقيّة الملفات المانعة لانعقاد الحكومة؟ | قرداحي استقال… فلننتظر الرد السعوي

السبت 4 كانون الأول 2021

الأخبار

سياسة المشهد السياسي

يقول متابعون للاتصالات إن الاستقالة ستشكّل إرباكاً للسعودية لجهة التعامل معها (هيثم الموسوي)

مع تقديم وزير الإعلام جورج قرداحي استقالته من الحكومة، لا يمكن إغفال عدد من التطورات. قد لا تؤتي هدية لبنان إلى المملكة العربية السعودية أُكلها، لكنها في الداخل قد تؤمّن انطلاق مسار سياسي جديدالمبادرة الخاصة جدّاً التي قام بها وزير الإعلام جورج قرداحي، بالاستقالة من الحكومة لفتح الباب أمام معالجة للأزمة مع السعودية ودول خليجية، تنتظر أن يلاقيها الطرف الآخر، وسط تباين في التقديرات حول ما يمكن أن تقوم به الرياض ردّاً على هذه الخطوة، ووسط مخاوف من استمرار موقفها من دون أيّ تصعيد في الخطوات الإجرائية، مقابل أن تتراجع دول خليجية أخرى عن إجراءات اتخذتها بتجميد العلاقات مع لبنان.

لكن الأمر ظلّ يلقي بظلاله على غياب الاستراتيجية اللبنانية الموحّدة حيال ملفات حساسة أبسط من الاستراتيجية الدفاعية التي يطالب بها خصوم المقاومة. إذ إن «الانهيار» أصاب مواقع رئيسية في البلاد حيال المطالب السعودية والاستجابة الضمنية للضغوط التي جاءت من الأوروبيين أيضاً، علماً بأن الجميع يعرفون أن القدرة على إدخال تحوّلات كبيرة في الموقف السعودي من لبنان ليست في متناول اليد الآن، بل إن الرياض تبدو مستمرة في التصعيد ريثما تتمكّن من تحقيق توازن على أكثر من صعيد.

ومع ذلك، فإن الخروج «الطوْعي» لوزير الإعلام من الحكومة خلط الأوراق من جديد. تكاتف فرنسا مع رئيس الحكومة نجيب ميقاتي ترافق مع «قبّة باط» سياسية داخلية جاءت من معظم القوى والمرجعيات. وبينما حاول البعض رمي الكرة في ملعب حزب الله، فإن الجميع يعرفون حقيقة موقف الحزب الذي بقي مصرّاً على احترام قرار قرداحي، مع الاستعداد للوقوف إلى جانبه لو قرّر المضيّ في المعركة. لكنّ الآخرين، جميعاً وبلا أيّ استثناء، كانوا في مكان آخر، وعملوا، كل من جانبه، على ممارسة أشكال مختلفة من الضغط على قرداحي لأجل تنفيذ الاستقالة. ومع ذلك، يتصرّف الجميع على أن الاستقالة أمّنت انطلاق مسار جديد في البلد. استعان ميقاتي بـ«الصديق» الفرنسي على الداخِل، ونجح الرئيس إيمانويل ماكرون في انتزاع «هدية» يدخُل بها على مُضيفه في الرياض.

السؤال عن السبب الذي دفَع القوى السياسية إلى ترك قرداحي «على هواه» يتراجع أمام الاستفسار عن «الثمرة» التي سيجنيها لبنان، وخاصّة أن «المطلوب رضاه» لا «مسامح ولا كريم»، فهل حصل لبنان على ضمانات بأن تدفع هذه الخطوة السعودية إلى أن تُعيد النظر بتصعيدها؟

الإجابة عن هذا السؤال قد تكون في ما قاله قرداحي في مؤتمره الصحافي، ولعلّه المختصر الأهم: «نحن اليوم أمام تطوّرات جديدة، والرئيس الفرنسي ذاهب إلى السعودية بزيارة رسميّة، وفهمت من رئيس الحكومة أنّ الفرنسيّين يرغبون في أن تكون هناك استقالة لي تسبق زيارة ماكرون، وتساعد ربّما على فتح حوار مع المسؤولين السعوديّين حول لبنان»، أي أنها «يُمكن أن تصيب أو تخيب»، علماً بأن ما علّقت به قناة «العربية» السعودية كانَ علامة أولى، قائلة: «في خبر عاجل، غير مهمّ للغاية، وزير الإعلام اللبناني يُقدّم استقالته من الحكومة».

بمعزل عن ذلك، يقول متابعون للاتصالات إن الاستقالة، لا شك، ستشكّل إرباكاً للسعودية لجهة التعامل معها؛ إذا قبلت الرياض الهدية وتراجعت عن إجراءات التصعيد، فسيظهر بأن حجم ردة فعلها على تصريح وزير لا يتناسب وحجمها كدولة. أمّا في حال رفضت المبادرة اللبنانية تجاهها، فيتأكد حينها بأن للمملكة أجندة للانتقام من لبنان، وسيحرِج ذلك أصحاب حملة التهويل على وزير الإعلام والذين سعوا طوال الفترة الماضية إلى تحميله المسؤولية.

استقالة قرداحي تريح فرنجية محلياً وخارجياً وانتخابياً

أمّا داخلياً، فإن الجميع يسعون في استثمار الخطوة، كل من وجهة نظره. رئيس الحكومة، الذي يتعرّض للضغط الفرنسي ويواجه الكراهية السعودية، يريد «فك العزلة» التي تواجه حكومته، وقد يسعى إلى استثمار الأمر من أجل إعادة تفعيل الحكومة، ولو أنه يحتاج إلى تسويات أخرى ذات طبيعة سياسية وأكثر تعقيداً ربطاً بمطالب الثنائي الشيعي وتيار المردة بما خص التحقيق في ملف المرفأ.

كذلك، ظهر أن سليمان فرنجية، نفسه، والمحطين به، ولا سيما نجله النائب طوني، يتصرّفون على قاعدة أنه «همّ وأزيح» ربطاً بالمسائل المتعلّقة بواقعهم الانتحابي، من جهة، وحتى بملف الانتخابات الرئاسية، من جهة ثانية، علماً بأن معركة انطلقت حول فرنجية الآن على من يخلف قرداحي، إذ يطمح مسؤولون في التيار نفسه إلى تولّي المهمّة بدلاً من اللجوء إلى صديق كما حصل مع قرداحي.

وتلفت مصادر مطّلعة إلى ضرورة مراقبة ما إذا كانت استقالة قرداحي مجرّدة عن التطورات التي تخصّ ملفات أخرى. وتوقفت المصادر عند تصريح ميقاتي لوكالة «أنباء الشرق الأوسط» في لبنان حول «إصرار الثنائي الشيعي على الفصل بين التحقيق القضائي بانفجار ميناء بيروت والتحقيق مع الرؤساء والوزراء»، وقول ميقاتي: «لدينا في الدستور المجلس الأعلى، وهو محكمة كاملة متكاملة مؤلفة من 8 قضاة من أعلى رتب قضائية، إضافة إلى 8 نواب»، في إشارة ضمنية إلى احتمال اللجوء إلى تسوية تقضي بفصل ملفات التحقيق الموجودة بين يدي المحقق العدلي في قضية انفجار مرفأ بيروت طارق البيطار، من دون الاضطرار إلى عزله أو تنحيته، علماً بأن ميقاتي كان دائم التأكيد على «عدم التدخّل في القضاء»، لكنه أعطى إشارة على استعداده للتراجع خطوة، إذ لفت إلى أن «ما يقوم به القضاء من دمج محاكمة الرؤساء والوزراء مع التحقيق القضائي أثار تباينات»، مؤكداً أن «الفصل بين التحقيقين ضروري حيث إن للعسكريين محكمة عسكرية وللقضاء هناك تفتيش قضائي، وأيضاً أوجد الدستور هذه المنظومة لمحاكمة الرؤساء والوزراء». وتساءلت المصادر عمّا إذا كان ميقاتي «يقول ذلك من عنديّاته، أو أنه استحصل على تراجع فرنسي عن الدعم المطلق لرئيس القضاء الأعلى القاضي سهيل عبود، والقاضي البيطار»، مشيرة إلى أن الأيام المقبلة ستؤكّد ذلك في حال «سجّل عبود خطوة لافتة وخرج حلّ ملف البيطار من القضاء بفتوى دستورية للفصل بين التحقيق وإعطاء صلاحية محاسبة الرؤساء والوزراء لمجلس النواب».

وكان رئيس الجمهورية العماد ميشال عون قد شكر قرداحي على مبادرته، مجدّداً التأكيد على حرص لبنان على إقامة أفضل العلاقات مع الدول العربية الشقيقة عموماً، ودول الخليج خصوصاً، متمنياً أن تضع الاستقالة حدّاً للخلل الذي اعترى العلاقات اللبنانية ــــ الخليجية. أمّا ميقاتي، فعلّق عليها بالتأكيد أنها «أتت ضرورية بعد الأزمة التي نشأت مع السعودية وعدد من دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي، ومن شأنها أن تفتح باباً لمعالجة إشكالية العلاقة مع الأشقاء في السعودية بعد تراكمات وتباينات حصلت في السنوات الماضية».

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Saturday, 4 December 2021

Lebanese Information Minister resigns ahead of Macron’s visit to KSA

December 03 2021

ByNews Desk

Kordahi’s resignation was made in the expectation that Macron’s visit with Saudi Arabia would help ease the economic pressure on Lebanon

At noon on 3 December, Lebanese Minister of Information George Kordahi submitted his resignation to President Michel Aoun and to the government of Lebanon.

The now former information minister, who joined Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s newly assembled cabinet, resigned over the diplomatic row with Saudi Arabia when Kordahi’s comments against the war in Yemen caused Saudi Arabia to recall its ambassador from Lebanon and ban all Lebanese imports.

Months before assuming his post, Kordahi had said that the Yemenis were defending themselves against the Saudi-led siege on Yemen, calling the war against Yemen ‘futile.’

In a statement given upon his resignation at a press conference, Kordahi said: “An intentional campaign was launched against me in some Lebanese and Gulf media and communication sites,” and that “because of this massive and unjust pressure against Lebanon, I refused to resign.”

He also said that “all those who attacked me in Lebanon were the ones who raised slogans of freedom and independence.”

Kordahi’s resignation on Friday emerged out of the hope that French President Emmanuel Macron’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia would help ease the pressure on Lebanon.

Kordahi told AFP ahead of his resignation that he does “not want to cling to this position if it can be useful,” hoping instead his resignation will come ahead of a possible deal between Macron and Saudi Arabia that would alleviate the economic and political blows waged by the kingdom. “I want to give Lebanon a chance,” he said.

He added that “the interest of my country and family is above my personal interest, and the interest of the Lebanese is more important than my ministerial position.”

“I don’t accept being used as a tool to harm my Lebanese brothers in the Gulf. The war in Yemen will not last forever, and a day will come when the warring sides will sit at the table,” Kordahi said.

At the peak of the crisis, Saudi officials had said that Kordahi’s comments reflected ‘Iranian influence’ in Lebanese politics.

The diplomatic row between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, however, reveals one of many examples of Saudi Arabia’s much more influential position in politics over Lebanon.

In banning Lebanese imports and breaking economic ties over a minor issue, Saudi Arabia demonstrated an aggressive ability to strike at Lebanon’s already struggling economy.

In 2017, Saudi Arabia kidnapped and tortured Saad al-Hariri, the then prime minister of Lebanon, releasing him three weeks later.

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Tuesday, 30 November 2021

Raisi to Macron: Negotiations must End in Removal of Sanctions

Nov 30, 2021

By Staff, Agencies

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi assured his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, that Tehran seeks a definitive result through the ongoing talks in the Austrian capital, emphasizing that Vienna negotiations must end in removal of sanctions imposed on Iran.

Raisi made the remarks in a Monday phone call initiated by Macron, which lasted for one and a half hours, during which the two sides discussed the current state of Vienna talks on removal of anti-Iran sanctions and other issues of mutual interest.

“Sanctions have failed to stymie Iran’s progress and today, the entire world knows who violated the JCPOA, and they must return to their commitments,” Iran’s president said, using an acronym for Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].

He further stated: “The current conditions are the result of Americans and Europeans not fulfilling their commitments as per the JCPOA.”

Raisi added that those parties who violated the JCPOA must gain the opposite side’s trust so that negotiations could proceed in a real manner and bear fruit.

“If Americans remove sanctions and Europeans fulfill their commitments, you should have no concern about Iran fulfilling its commitments, because we have shown time and again and in practice that we abide by our obligations,” Iran’s president said.

In parallel, Raisi reiterated that “Iran seeks [a definitive] result in [Vienna] talks and negotiations must end in removal of sanctions.”

Iran’s president then told Macron that if they believe in the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] as an international authority, they should note that “the agency has frequently announced that the Islamic Republic of Iran is committed to its nuclear obligations.”

He added that during his recent visit to Iran, Director General of the IAEA Rafael Grossi said nothing about Iran not being in compliance with its obligations, adding, “We are now ready to continue full cooperation with the Agency.”

“Iran has always lived up to its nuclear commitments and the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed Iran’s commitment [to its obligations] on many occasions,” Raisi said, adding that dispatching a comprehensive team to Vienna talks indicates Iran’s serious determination in those negotiations.

He also urged Macron to work with other participants in Vienna talks to secure removal of sanctions imposed on Iran.

Macron, for his part, condemned unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, saying that Paris considers the nuclear deal a common responsibility for its members.

Macron added that he has talked to US President Joe Biden and that Paris is bent on going on with the negotiations until a final result is reached.

The French president’s phone call came after the end of the first meeting of the seventh round of Vienna talks earlier the same day during which, according to Iran’s top negotiator, Ali Baqeri-Kani, all participants in the first meeting of the seventh round of talks have agreed that removing sanctions must be the main focus of negotiations.

Iran’s negotiator said all parties agreed that focus of the talks should be removal of sanctions imposed on Iran after the US’ unilateral withdrawal from the landmark 2015 nuclear deal.

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Thursday, 25 November 2021

Catastrophe since 2017: How to cover France’s presidential election?

November 22, 2021

by Ramin Mazaheri and cross-posted with PressTV

It’s a question which appears almost too basic a starting point, but not when we recall what a catastrophe the heart of Western Europe has been since 2017:

What is to be done about France?

Emmanuel Macron: Marketed as Prince Charming but who quickly became Evil King Manu I of the neoliberal empire of the European Union.

The Yellow Vests: It’s as if France has spectacularly grown a fifth limb, no? Yet there it is – muscled and grasping. By now the followers of France should know what it is and what it wants, but what we can’t say for certain is what it can do to a presidential election because this is its very first.

Eric Zemmour: And you thought Marine Le Pen was repugnant? If the 1% can fabricate a Macron out of nothing and in mere weeks, of course they can create a Zemmour to divert attention/split the right-wing vote/divert attention again.

Marine Le Pen: Joan of Arc was not yet another ineffectual leader (hereditary, even) of a discredited system – Marine has been totally unmasked by the Yellow Vests. After all the authoritarian beat-downs, mosque closures and states of emergency since 2017 – do you still believe Macron was the better choice?

Traditional political parties: Routed. They’re down to their last party-machine fiefdoms, such as the mayorship of Paris.

France’s left: Routed. Always a paper tiger – now barely there on paper.

Unions: Routed by the Yellow Vests. Only the media cares what they have to say anymore, and perhaps also the tiny percent of France (8%) which is still unionised.

Mainstream media: Routed by the Yellow Vests. If in Western liberal democracies politicians are the new aristocracy then media are the new clerical class. The miracle of transubstantiation which they insist on, and which few outside of their class actually believe, is that the universal value of Western relativism means that impiety can be the same thing as piety.

Catholic Church: France, long-known as the “daughter of the Roman Catholic Church”, has just been embroiled (seemingly rather tardily) in a massive pedophile cover-up scandal.

Notre Dame Cathedral: Europe’s most famous house of worship is still closed and will be until 2024. Recall that the fire began just an hour before Macron was due to give an exceptionally rare speech – to finally discuss the then 5-month long Yellow Vest crisis.

France’s polling agencies are so discredited that the most popular newspaper, Ouest-France, has already refused to run any polls ahead of the election. They are perceived as being tremendously biased in large part because they are now staffed at the top by the mainstream politicians who recently lost their public posts.

The French were as appalled by their nation’s part in Afghanistan as anyone else in the Western colonial coalition.

The war in Mali – started by Francois Hollande, and before the initial consent of the United Nations – has been declared an abject failure and withdrawal has begun.

France has been in a state of emergency for most of Macron’s tenure.

The longest labor movement in French history – the general strike of late 2019/early 2020 – failed, and for too many reasons to list here.

In short, it’s a total catastrophe.

I don’t mean to be negative, nihilistic or to sow despair, but who can look back at France since 2017 and see otherwise?

Did you notice that I haven’t even mentioned the coronavirus? Now do you see how bad it is?

Where is the political renewal which Macronism promised? Running a corruption-free administration – following the gaudy Sarkozy and the treacherous Hollande administrations – was truly a top-three plank of Macron’s.

The average person doesn’t fully grasp the complex but nation-appalling Benalla affair or remember Lobstergate, but they can easily imagine the effect of this: Macron set the record for most forced resignations by disgraced cabinet ministers after just two years in office. If corona hadn’t come along to totally disrupt the normal functioning of political life, and of its observation by journalists and citizens, how much worse would this record have gotten?

“The Yellow Vests will triumph” was spray-painted on the Arc de Triomphe, stunning the entire world. It was undoubtedly the defining image of France during the Macron era – a massive communications victory which redefined the image of France in the world, and of neoliberalism, and of Macron. Maybe they will yet?

Corona obviously prevented the Yellow Vests from marching, but their “Season 2” premiered last month. No one can claim that the Yellow Vests do not represent a massive renewal – of some sort – in French politics and still remain credible. To do so is to show either total ignorance or willing complicity.

France is simultaneously synonymous with “liberty” and yet had the most corona restrictions in the West – without a corona passport you can’t do anything indoors here except basic shopping (you can’t even have coffee on a cafe’s outdoor terrace). Corona preserved in amber so many (too many) problems of French life, but soon the intensity of the presidential election will melt these things away and reveal what was encased inside.

While the national corona passport has been extended until after the elections (will it be used to bar people from voting facilities?) the April presidential and June legislative elections will essentially be the West’s first post-corona election. Yes, some unhappy souls will wear masks for the rest of their life, but I think we can predict that this winter’s inevitable surge in illnesses will be the vaccine-rich West’s last chance to ardently wave the bloody flag of corona.

The Yellow Vests are right – it’s the system of Western liberal democracy, stupid: it preserves and perpetuates inequality and anti-democracy. And yet, how should they vote?

Voting out the two mainstream parties and giving Macron’s new party control over the executive and legislative branches has undoubtedly resulted in the most brutal civil political conditions since 1968.

Is that a platform worthy of re-election?

Is it remotely credible to encourage a return of the mainstream parties?

Macron, Zemmour, Le Pen – these are all people on the far-right (either economically, politically, culturally or all three). I wrote this in 2017 but was shouted down by journalist colleagues who insisted that Macron was a “centrist”. Nobody would dare claim that now, and this long-resisted knowledge cost many Yellow Vests an eye, a hand, their rights, their freedom, etc. Should we just acquiesce to the fact that France’s political power lays in the capitalist-imperialist right, and has since about 1794?

In the 2019 elections to European Parliament the Animal Rights Party received – incredibly – more than double the score of all the Yellow Vest lists combined. (However, they have had more time to organise since then.)

I don’t know how to cover France’s election but I will have to figure it out. The initial math does not look good.

Ramin Mazaheri is the chief correspondent in Paris for PressTV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. He is the author of ‘Socialism’s Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism’ as well as ‘I’ll Ruin Everything You Are: Ending Western Propaganda on Red China’, which is also available in simplified and traditional Chinese.

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The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!

Friday, 22 October 2021

Yellow Vests ‘Season 2’ begins – are Season 1’s always better?

October 21, 2021

By Ramin Mazaheri posted with permission and cross-posted with PressTV

Last weekend, after more than one and half years away, the Yellow Vests hit the streets again for what they are calling “Season 2”.

You’re going to laugh and say, “But Season 2 of television programs are always worse!” Sure, for TV shows which turn out to be lousy. I find it hard to imagine that the Yellow Vests are going to sour into something unwatchable – in 2019 it was global can’t-miss politics.

The Yellow Vests poised to restart marching in Paris: The Bastille monument is in the background and a “Stop the genocide of the Gauls” sign is at the head of the demonstration. Photo Credit: Ramin Mazaheri

French President Emmanuel Macron may appreciate the coronavirus because it provided the only time in his term, other than his first several months when the streets weren’t swarming with protesters. There are self-centered Americans who claim that the corona hysteria was amplified in the West to push Donald Trump into losing re-election – some egotistical French say the hysteria was manipulated to get the Yellow Vests off the streets. Neither egos are totally out of control here, if you ask me.

Most everyone in France I talked with about the Vesters had the same response about Season 2: “The Yellow Vests still exist?” That’s fair – it has been a while.

I hate sounding like the perpetually self-referential Chris Cuomo of CNN, but no journalist in French or English attended more Yellow Vest demonstrations than I did… and even I had to catch up on what happened in the different epoch of 2019!

All I can say after doing so is – wow… France’s state-sponsored repression in 2019 boggles the mind and stuns the pen. It should not be forgotten, and someone needs to get it right.

Which is why at the end of 2019 I thought it was necessary journalism to compile this, A News Chronology of France in 2019: The Year of Yellow Vest Rebellion. I recommend it to anyone who wants to know exactly what happened in 2019, in what order, how, and why. It is 11,000 words but reviewing how the Yellow Vest phenomenon arose and exploded, and the depths to which France descended to repress it, make for astounding reading even if Chris Cuomo would have penned it.

To condense it all into two lines from the introduction: “The metronomic sadism of certain, massive state violence was not at all a normal state of affairs, and yet Parisians were expending all their psychic energy to convince themselves that everything was indeed ‘normal’. … The question that France cannot quite answer is: are they still the coloniser, or are they now colonised?”

Disgusting Eric Zemmour, who has risen to third in the April 2022 presidential polls, will say that France is the colonised – by Muslims. Nonsense: somehow the lowest socioeconomic class is the one pulling the strings which gutted France’s middle class? Yet he still gets all the airtime in the world. The Yellow Vests, however, get it right – France has been colonised by the European Union, which is indeed a neo-imperialist project that is openly and repeatedly anti-democratic. For this Vesters get no airtime.

But they do get plenty of tear gas (a more powerful type began getting used in March 2019), and rubber bullets (or “flash balls” shot from “defense ball launchers” per the MSM), from a new police chief who was hired because the Prime Minister said that “Inappropriate orders were given to reduce the use of LBD (rubber bullets)” by the previous police chief, while protesters were forbidden from covering their face (are corona masks ok now?).

You really can’t make this stuff up: remember the “anti-Yellow Vest law”, the lockdowns, the deployment of the army, the reactionary and short-lived “Red Scarves”, the fake turnout numbers, the fact that Macron didn’t even utter the words “Yellow Vests” until April 25, the banning of rural demonstrations, the tear-gassed tourists on Bastille Day, Lobstergate, etc.

So, yes, Mr. and Mrs. Jean Q. Frenchy stopped going to protests around mid-May 2019. You can say the Yellow Vests grew unpopular but you’d be wrong – they were consistently around a 60% approval rating, which is a staggeringly high number for a protest movement, and a great score for a political party.

But don’t forget the victories: they stopped Macron’s privatisation of the airports, they forced him to back down on yet another austerity budget (thus ending 9 years of austerity), they got €10 billion in concessions (which was credited to raising France’s 2019 Q3 growth rate of 0.3% (remember how many years of awful quarters they had when 0.3% quarterly growth would be trumped up as proof of austerity’s success!)), they must get credit for inspiring the 2019/20 General Strike (France’s longest labor movement in history) and also – they refused to give up.

These are low numbers, because how many hurt protesters (including tourists) didn’t report their injuries, but the 1-year tally in late November was 11,000 arrests, 2,000 convictions, 1,000 imprisoned, 5,000 seriously hurt and 1,000 critically injured.

Incredible… and yet France continued to claim to be a leader in human and political rights all the while. As if Danton and Robespierre wouldn’t have guillotined themselves rather than be associated with the French government of today….

But we all know what happened right after the French union-led, which is to say incompetently-led, General Strike failed: ”2 weeks to flatten the curve!”

Well, at least it gave France a reason to have a new type of state of emergency. Recall that those started under Francois Hollande – executive branch power-grabs are not something started by Macron.

Season 2 of the West’s most advanced political group

Oh, wait – aren’t they Islamophobic, per the repeated accusations of the MSM? Well, then why did the head of the Paris demonstration feature a Muslim woman wearing a hijab?

In 2019 they marched against both anti-Semitism and Islamophobia, by the way.

Nothing says, “The spirit of les Lumières (the Enlightenment)” like a machine gun at a peaceful, unarmed demonstration. Guess they don’t need to call out the army anymore?

I counted about 1,000 at one of the Paris protests on the opening act of Season 2, and I estimated there were 300 planned demonstrations nationwide. The Yellow Vests have always been a rural-based movement, and because the MSM dismisses and denigrates rural areas they have consistently undercounted Vester demos by a third. Here’s a shot of the Paris demonstration to see for yourself. Notice the Palestinian flag, even though Vesters are surely racist, Islamophobic, pro-imperialist, etc.?

Here’s the TV report we at PressTV did on Act 1, Season 2 – you may not find any others. I surprisingly did see a lone major French media there, which was a huge increase from the usual French media presence of “none”. An RT colleague was there, as always, so it was quite the same as it was from mid-May 2019 onwards – mostly just the Russians and the Iranians covering the Yellow Vests.

So what’s going to happen this season?

Well, the resumption of regular weekend repression of protesters would surely hurt Macron’s re-election chances, but will the average Jean and Jeanne Frenchy join them? Believe it or not, many people don’t like being tear gassed in 2021 as much as they didn’t like it in 2019. The massive state repression, the criminalisation, the tear gas, the beatings, the fines, the intrusive searches, the portraying of political protesters as mere rioters – the whole point was to scare away the average Frenchman, and it definitely worked.

People here tell me that Macron will just buy voters off with some one-off payments before the election, but Americans told me the same thing about Trump – I note that he did not.

The world is not going to lock itself down to sway the French election, like many said it seemed to do for the US election; the Western 1% really doesn’t care what happens to French protesters, and 2019 proved that emphatically.

If you’re going to pin me down for an early prediction, and fairly ask this foreign correspondent what exactly is going on in France, then at this point I’d say: Macron wins re-election regardless of how much petrol increases, inflation rises, the Vesters march, etc. for a simple reason:

The West postures on 18th century political and social achievements, largely disavowing 20th-century advances in political thought and anti-imperialism. Thus, France is a far-right country with a host of recent massacres, violence and repression which are forgotten or covered up as soon as the smoke clears – look at the Yellow Vests of 2019. The Yellow Vests are emphatically not poseurs, but they were and likely will be incredibly suppressed ahead of the presidential election.

Apathy is always the forerunner of catastrophe – however, perhaps France will grasp that and not cede the political field to the economic and social far-right (Macron, Le Pen, Zemmour)?

The story of French political modernity is not over – Season 2 has only begun.

Photos by Ramin Mazaheri

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The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Blog!