Saturday, 11 May 2013

BDS : The Crippling of The Palestinian Cause


The news of physicist Stephen Hawking boycotting the Scientific conference taking place in Israel and sponsored by Shimon Peres has been given so much attention and everyone is seeing the star of BDS rising high due to this outstanding achievement that BDS has claimed .
The whole matter sounds so easy and all you have to do is boycott something like …a conference or an Israeli product and your star will rise high in the sky together with the star of BDS and you become de facto a member of the so called BDS and BDS will use and exploit your stand to the end in order to acquire more legitimacy and speak in the name of the cause and in the name of Palestinians . . You have catered to BDS and joined the Anti Apartheid campaign. You might rejoice for taking such a stand and feel that you have achieved something for Palestine, and have helped Palestinians in their struggle to retrieve their rights and their land , but this is not so because , what you have done actually is the recognition the right of Israel to exist on Palestinian land, you have embarked on a trip of normalization with the enemy , something that you were not aware of nor informed about.
What BDS is doing , in fact, is taking us by the hand to recognize something called the state of Israel . An Israel that has become a legitimate state for all . All this because BDS has lately recognized the existence of Israel on Palestinian land, within the borders of 1948, and its right over this land, and this without consulting its Palestinian endorsers in the name of whom BDS speaks, and without even giving them notice about this development .
What BDS is doing -under this boycott campaign and using this boycott campaign- is giving legality to the state of Israel .This is the ugly truth BDS is hiding in implementing an agenda that is far from being Palestinian, and serves directly the Zionist project . This Apartheid scenario might have been inspired by George Soros – the pro Zionist who is a major financer of BDS endorsers- or by the European Community who is another major financer and the major financer and promoter of the state of Israel as well. No one in BDS has shown up to answer the question of the financing of the movement which has created lots of controversy lately ..
In these difficult days, the last thing the cause needs is more catering and recognition of the state of Israel while Israelis resume -undisturbed- the policy of expanding and building settlements on usurped land , and taking over Jerusalem by bits, and harassing Palestinians and abusing prisoners and slowly -but surely -exterminating the population, while the cause is being slowly liquidated between the Palestinian Authority and HAMAS and the rising NGOs and BDS as a major representative .
And while the Palestinian Authority has sold the cause for trifles to Arab stooges of the Gulf , and while HAMAS has sold it to Sectarian Islam , BDS is selling it out now -internationally- by promoting Israel as an Apartheid state- the same way South Africa was promoted – with the legal status of a legal state instead of the status of an occupying usurping entity that has no legitimacy whatsoever . If it is not Israel that is benefiting from all this , then who is?

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Lebanon Gas 30 trn Cubic Feet of Offshore Reserves

Local Editor
Lebanese care taker Energy and Water Minister Gebran Bassil Preliminary surveys of Lebanese offshore fields show reserves of 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 660 million barrels of oil, Lebanon's energy minister said on Thursday

Speaking at the Arab Economic Forum, Gebran Bassil said scanning was now complete on 70 percent of the country's territorial waters -- an area of some 15,000 square kilometers (5,791 square miles).

"In just 10 percent of that area... we have 30 trillion cubic feet (850 million cubic meters) of gas and 660 million barrels of oil," he said.

Speaking to Agence France Presse, Bassil said the amounts were "very large and promising as initial estimates."

Production from the reserves was linked to the speed of the exploration phases and installation of wells, but "theoretically ranges from three to seven years."

"If we meet all the deadlines, we hope to have completed the first exploration phase in the period between 2016 and 2017 and to begin thereafter development and production," he added.

Last month, Bassil announced the name of 46 firms that had qualified to bid on a first round of licenses to explore Lebanon's offshore fields, with 12 qualified to bid as operators.

The bidding round opened on May 2 and is scheduled to be completed by November 4.

In January, Bassil said Lebanon hoped to have exploration contracts with international oil companies signed and sealed by the end of the year.

In August, parliament passed a law setting Lebanon's maritime boundary and Exclusive Economic Zone.

Lebanon has submitted to the United Nations a maritime map which is in line with an armistice accord drawn up in 1949, and that conflicts with one proposed by the Zionist entity.
The disputed zone consists of about 882 square kilometers, and suspected energy reserves there could generate billions of dollars.
Source: AFP
10-05-2013 - 20:37 Last updated 10-05-2013 - 20:39
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Palestinian group says preparing to fight for Golan Heights

A picture taken from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights shows Syrian residents gathering near the boundary fence near the southern Syrian village of al-Rafide on 7 May 2013. (Photo: AFP - Menahem Kahana)
Published Saturday, May 11, 2013
A Palestinian nationalist organization in Damascus said it is forming combat units to try to reclaim territory occupied by Israel, in particular the Golan Heights, after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah that they would support such operations.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) said it was preparing for new operations after nearly 40 years of quiet on the Israel-Syria border.

The group was most active in the 1970s and 80s but retains influence with Palestinians in Syria and Lebanon.

"The leadership of the PFLP-GC announces that it will form brigades to work on liberating all violated (occupied) territories, first and foremost the occupied Golan," it said in a statement late on Friday.

"The Popular Front's leaders have opened the door to all Syrian citizens to volunteer in the formation of the resistance."

Israel launched a series of air strikes around Damascus last week that inflamed tensions in the region.
Intelligence sources said Israel was trying to take out "game-changing" Iranian weapons destined for Hezbollah.

Assad and his father, who ruled for 30 years before him, maintained calm in the Golan despite an official state of war between the two countries and Syria's support for the resistance in Lebanon and Gaza.

But following last week's strikes, which shook the Syrian capital and set its skyline alight with flames, Assad was quoted by state media as saying he would turn the Golan into a "resistance front" and would allow combatants to attack Israel from the area.

Hezbollah, which fought a bloody 34-day war with Israel in 2006 and is believed to coordinate with the PFLP-GC, turned up the rhetoric further by saying it would support any such operations.

"We announce that we stand with the Syrian popular resistance and offer material and spiritual support as well as coordination in order to liberate the Syrian Golan," Hezbollah secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised speech on Thursday.

The regions bordering the Golan Heights have already collapsed into disarray, with daily battles between state and rebels forces.

The Syrian war, which has killed more than 70,000 people, risks becoming increasingly regionalized, as the country's borders mark the faultlines of several Middle Eastern conflicts.

(Reuters, Al-Akhbar)
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Car Bombs Hit Turkey near Syria Border, Killing 18

Explosions kills 18 in Turkey near the Syrian border
Local Editor
Turkish Interior Minister Muammer Guler said number of people killed in Reyhanli blasts rises to 18, Anadolu news agency reported.

The blasts took place in Turkey's Reyhanli town of the southern province of Hatay on Saturday, near the border with Syria.

Turkey: attacks in Reyhanli; May 11, 2013Initial reports said that many casualties were taken to nearby hospitals by ambulance, according to a local newspaper. Health Minister Mehmet Muezzinoglu said at least 15 ambulances rushed to the scene to help the injured, Associated Press reported.

Search and rescue operations are underway in the southern town of Reyhanli on Saturday to save individuals who may be under rubble following two separate blasts earlier in the day.
At least eight motor vehicles and a large number of buildings have been destroyed as a result of the blasts.

It remains unclear how many explosions took place with conflicting reports of two and four blasts emerging, Al-Manar correspondent reported.

However, two vehicles packed with explosives blew up near the town hall and the post office in Reyhanli, Anatolia news agency quoted Guler as saying.

Reyhanli, a town of about 60,000 in Hatay Province, has come under attack several times in recent months. In February, a mortar round landed near the border, killing 13 and injuring 33.
Source: Websites
11-05-2013 - 15:34 Last updated 11-05-2013 - 16:06
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US prepares war with Syria as pro-US terrorists lose ground

By Thomas Gaist     
10 May 2013
Calls for a war with Syria mounted yesterday, despite mass popular opposition to war in the United States, amid reports that US-backed Islamist opposition forces fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have suffered serious reverses.

Speaking on NBC News yesterday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan pressed for Washington to take military action against Syria.

He repeated unsubstantiated allegations that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons, which have been refuted by UN investigator Carla del Ponte, claiming, “It is clear the regime has used chemical weapons and missiles.” Claiming that a “red line” had been crossed, he said: “We want the United States to assume more responsibilities and take further steps. And what sort of steps they will take, we are going to talk about this.”

Erdogan dismissed out of hand reports that chemical weapons used in Syria were in fact used by the US-backed opposition.

He stressed that his government would support US imposition of a “no-fly zone” in Syria, which would involve destroying Syrian air defenses and shooting down any Syrian aircraft that took to the skies.

Erdogan’s calls for military action were echoed across the American press. The Washington Post ’s editorial board called for “an air campaign as well as arms for the moderate opposition” aimed to “quickly tip the military balance against the Assad regime.” Wall Street Journal columnist Bret Stephens proposed a long list of attacks against Assad, including sending in US ground forces: “disable the runways of Syrian air bases, including the international airport in Damascus…use naval assets to impose a no-fly zone over western Syria…supply the Free Syrian Army with heavy military equipment, including armored personnel carriers and light tanks; and be prepared to seize and remove Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile, even if it means putting boots (temporarily) on the ground.”
The calls for war come amid reports of major setbacks in Syria for the US-backed opposition, reflecting its small size and lack of popular support, and growing military assistance from Russia, Iran, and Lebanon for the Assad regime.

After two months of heavy bombardment, government forces have retaken the strategic town of Khirbet Ghazaleh from the “rebels,” re-opening government transport routes to Deraa, the city where initial opposition protests began two years ago. Opposition leaders acknowledged it as a major setback. “Tomorrow, the big tragedy will happen, the regime’s supply route to Deraa will reopen, and the officers will go back and ammunition will be resupplied and the bombardment will resume,” said Abu Yacoub, commander of the Martyrs of Khirbet Ghazaleh brigade.

Yesterday, BBC Middle East bureau chief Paul Danahar wrote that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) amounts to little more than “men with guns,” united only by the fact that they “point their guns in the same direction.” He said the FSA is not a “cohesive force” and lacks a “command structure.”
A Jerusalem Post article of May 3rd entitled “Is Assad Winning in Syria?” describes the defeat of opposition militias around Qusayr by Hezbollah forces, as well as the capture of Otaiba by Assad’s forces last week, indicating the growing strength of Assad vis-à-vis the US proxy forces. According to the article, “morale among supporters of the regime has improved markedly in recent weeks.” It concluded, “Assad shows no signs of cracking.”

Under these conditions, Assad’s allies are stepping up military deliveries to Damascus. The Russian government has announced plans to sell S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to Syria, in a $900 million deal that would substantially bolster the Syrian regime’s capacity to defend itself against US and Israeli airstrikes.

Secretary of State John Kerry criticized the sale as “destabilizing,” and the Israeli government appealed to Russia to halt the transaction. Syria’s purchase comes in after Israeli air strikes that used long-range “stand-off” missiles to attack Damascus from beyond the Syrian border.

On Thursday, Iran vowed to respond to the Israeli raids with “blows under the belt in several locations.” Iran’s envoy to Syria, Ali Akbar Salehi, promised “full and unlimited support from Iran, politically, militarily, and economically, to the Syrian leadership and people, against the takfiris [Al Qaeda-type Sunni extremist forces], terrorists, Israel, the US, and all who dare attack this country.”

Also on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah announced that Syria would supply his militia “special weapons it never had before,” calling the decision “game-changing.” The weapons are apparently being transferred as a response to Israel’s air strikes on Damascus. “This is the Syrian strategic reaction,” he explained.

These deliveries highlight the broad regional implications of the proxy war Washington has waged against the Assad regime, relying primarily on Islamist forces tied to Al Qaeda, and the risk of a US war in Syria escalating into a regional or even global conflict.

There is broad opposition in the working class to the US drive to war in Syria overseen by President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. A recent poll pegged popular opposition to war at 62 percent of the US population.

The conflict has already taken a horrific toll on the Syrian people. Over the past several months, the number of Syrians displaced from their homes by the war has increased from 2 million to 4.25 million. A total of 6.8 million Syrians, including 3.1 million children, are classified as “in dire need of humanitarian assistance” by the UN’s Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Jordanian officials have stated that Syrian refugees now make up 10 percent of Jordan’s total population, with this figure set to explode to 40 percent by mid-2014 on current trends.

The ramping up of US military operations against Syria is accompanied by diplomatic efforts to bring about a post-Assad government on terms favorable to US imperialism. Secretary of State John Kerry has sought an agreement with Russia, which would pave the way for a power-sharing arrangement.
This plan also received significant endorsement in US strategic and media circles. Zbigniew Brzezinski, a prominent architect of US imperial policy, issued a strong criticism of proposed US military action against Syria, proposing instead to try to involve Russia and China in US plans to remove Assad through diplomacy.

He said, “The various schemes that have been proposed for a kind of tiddlywinks intervention from around the edges of the conflict—no-fly zones, bombing Damascus and so forth—would simply make the situation worse. None of the proposals would result in an outcome strategically beneficial for the US On the contrary, they would produce a more complex, undefined slide into the worst-case scenario. The only solution is to seek Russia’s and China’s support for U.N.-sponsored elections in which, with luck, Assad might be ‘persuaded’ not to participate.”

Along these lines, David Ignatius of the Washington Post proposed “a military transition government” that would include “reconcilable elements of Assad’s army,” under the leadership of US-backed General Salim Idriss, a defector who now commands Syrian opposition forces.

Effectively, US officials are hoping that, in the context of negotiations jointly organized by the Russian government, they could persuade Syrian officers to organize a coup to oust Assad, and then make a deal with the US-backed opposition. Their plan involves a new ruling coalition composed of opposition and regime elements, described by Ignatius as a “military transition government that would include reconcilable elements of Assad’s army.” Assad would be removed, though lower-ranking members of his government might remain.

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Ynet Warns Israeli Leaders against Nasrallah’s Serious Threats

Local Editor

Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth demanded that officials in Tel-Aviv should listen carefully to the positions and threats made by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.

The military affairs commentator in the newspaper, Alex Fishman, wrote a long analytical article, in which he harshly criticized the cabinet that approved the decision to carry out air strikes in Syria.
Commenting on the recent positions of Sayyed Nasrallah, the newspaper’s report mentioned that Israel tends to undermine the Arab leaders positions. “Yet it seems that there are exceptional leaders in the Middle East as it’s the case with Sayyed Nasrallah whom we have to listen to carefully if he threatens.”

The report also stressed that “Nasrallah fulfills his commitments and threats, and what he says exactly matches with what he does.” The writer pointed that Nassrallah actually repeated the threats that Assad had issued in the aftermath of the Israeli air strikes in Damascus which implied the transformation of the Golan Heights into a popular resistance square. Yet “when Nasrallah and Al-Assad issue the same threats, we have to take the issue more seriously.”

Fishman quoted the Israeli army Colonel Ronen Cohen who is the author of “The Rhetoric of Hassan Nasrallah during the Second Lebanon War” book.

“Many of Nasrallah’s speeches are dedicated to propaganda, psychological warfare, and the strategic issues. Yet there are a number of details related to executive and operational issues,” Ronen said.
Sayyed NasrallahThe writer added that all the threats issued by Nasrallah during 2006 July War used to be implemented within 24 hours, yet the time of peace is more complicated because the threats are not necessarily carried out immediately.

The Israeli officer also told Yedioth Ahronoth that Nasrallah was clear when he stressed that Hezbollah would help the resistance in the Golan Heights, so “we have to check his intentions, whether he implies logistic help, training, or other possibilities.” Nevertheless, Col. Cohen stressed the need to be aware now that “Hezbollah started to set his foot on the Syrian-Zionist borders, exactly as he set its hands and feet in Sinai and Gaza Strip.
Source: Websites
11-05-2013 - 14:13 Last updated 11-05-2013 - 14:20

Who killed the Qatari intelligence chief in Somalia?

من قتل رئيس المخابرات القطرية فى الصومال ؟

‏السبت‏، 11‏ أيار‏، 2013

أوقات الشام

أحمد الحباسي – تونس

في كتاب ” قطر ، أسرار الخزنة ” للكاتبين جورج مالبرونو و كريستيان شينو ، يخصص الكتاب حيزا مهما للدور القطري في الأحداث الدموية الدائرة في سوريا ، بحيث صار الأمير القطري مهموما بهذا الملف معتبرا أن مآل المؤامرة في دمشق مسألة شخصية، بمعنى أن نجاة الرئيس الأسد هي كارثة قطرية وطنية ، لذلك وضفت الخزينة القطرية لإسقاط النظام البعثى في سوريا بكل التكاليف.

في مقال منشور على موقع جريدة المنار في أواخر شهر جانفى 2013 بعنوان “جلسات سرية في تل أبيب بين قطر و تركيا و إسرائيل لمناقشة ضرب سوريا”، هناك حديث عن علاقات متقدمة بين هذا الثالوث لغاية إسقاط النظام السوري ،و هناك بحث عن إنشاء تحالف لإسقاط النظام تمت تسميته ب “تحالف الخوف من بقاء النظام السور ى ” ، و هناك حديث عن حضور رئيس المخابرات القطرية شخصيا هذا الاجتماع ، و هناك حديث أيضا ، عن وعود مالية خيالية للنظام الصهيوني لغاية دفعه لضرب سوريا عسكريا و إسقاط نظامها ، بعد أن فشلت المجموعات الإرهابية المسلحة في اسقاط النظام رغم المهل الكثيرة ، و بعد أن باتت تمثل خطرا على دول الجوار ، و بعد أن ظهر حديث أمريكي حول نية الإدارة الأمريكية وضعها على لائحة الإرهاب ( جبهة النصرة مثالا ) خاصة بعد تفجيرات بوسطن الأخيرة ، و عودة المخاوف لدى بعض الدول الغربية من هذا الخطر.

في مقال مهم للكاتب الفرنسي بونوا مارقو بتاريخ 5/2/2013 في صحيفة ” لوموند ” الفرنسية المعروفة بجديتها ، هناك إشارات حول وجود حالة من الامتعاض و الاحتقان بين فرنسا و قطر حول ملفات كثيرة في المنطقة و يأتي على رأسها بالطبع ملف الأحداث الجارية في مالي ، و إذا كانت العلاقات القطرية مع الرئيس السابق نيكولا ساركوزى قد تميزت بكثير من التفاهم ، فان الرئيس الاشتراكي الحالي فرانسوا هولاند له عدة تحفظات حول الدور القطري ، و حول تداخل هذا الدور في عدة ملفات حيوية مهمة في أفريقيا ، هذه التحفظات يتم ترجمتها في مقالات و تسريبات صحفية تتحدث بصوت عال عما تتحدث عنه الحكومة الفرنسية بصوت خافت ، يذكر مثلا أن الأوساط الفرنسية تتوجس كثيرا من الاستثمارات القطرية بل هناك من يتحدث عن قوة “استعمارية ” مثلما حصل في ملتقى ضم عددا من الدبلوماسيين و الدارسين في فرنسا منذ مدة قصيرة ( مقال منشور بجريدة المساء بتاريخ 8/1/2013 ).

العلاقة الوطيدة بين الجماعات الإرهابية المتطرفة و بين النظام القطري لم تعد سرا للمتابعين ، هذه العلاقة يستثمرها النظام لقلب الأنظمة العربية تحت ذريعة مساندة التطلعات الشعبية ، و بالمقابل فان تواجد هذه المجموعات و اكتساحها لساحات أفريقية معينة بدعم قطري واضح هو الذي أصبح يشكل هاجسا مزعجا لبعض الدول الغربية و على رأسها طبعا النظام الفر نسى و لبعض الدول الأخرى مثل الصين ،و لعل محاولة قطر اللعب في المناطق المحرمة كما يقول المقال الصادر بمجلة “أفريقيا-آسيا”(Afrique- Asie ) بتاريخ 16/1/2013 بعنوان ” الدور القطري الغامض في مساندة الجهاديين في شمال أفريقيا ” ، قلت هذا اللعب المحرم هو الذي يقلق إلى حد بعيد المخططات الغربية في المنطقة الإفريقية و يدفعها إلى كثير من الأسئلة حول حقيقة الدور القطري في مجال حيوي لا يتركه الكبار إلى صغار الأنظمة خاصة العربية منها.

هذا التمويل القطري للجماعات الإرهابية ، كما تقول صحيفة “لوكانار أونشينى “(Le canard enchainé ) ، في مقال منشور في شهر جوان 2012 ، خاصة الجماعات الموجودة في الصومال و بعض البلدان المجاورة هو ما يفسر الاهتمام المتزايد للمخابرات القطرية بهذه الجماعات ، و لعل تواجد رئيس المخابرات شخصيا في الصومال هو علامة تثير كثيرا من الأسئلة المهمة ، لان تحول أي رئيس جهاز مخابرات في العالم إلى منطقة ما يعطى إشارات مزعجة و خطيرة للأجهزة الأخرى المتابعة للحركات المتطرفة و يمثل إشارة قوية على تدبير أمر مهم ، هذا الانزعاج من الدور الإرهابي القطري تعبر عنه كثير من الأنظمة الإفريقية ، بل هناك من يتحدث عن دعوات إفريقية ملحة للدول الغربية لإعادة صياغة علاقاتها مع النظام القطري و التثبت من الأهداف الحقيقية لهذا الدور في المنطقة مثلما جاء في مقال منشورة بموقع “كابيتاليس ” منذ أسابيع ، خاصة و أن “الوقاحة” القطرية قد وصلت حد معارضة التدخل الفرنسي في الأحداث الأخيرة في مالي ، مثلما يشير إليه المقال المنشور بمجلة “أفريقيا-آسيا” بتاريخ 16/1/2013 .

في الحقيقة ، هناك أسئلة مهمة طرحتها عديد الأوساط الأمنية الفرنسية خاصة بعد التدخل الفاشل لعناصر المخابرات لإنقاذ عميلها دونيس الاكس المحتجز لدى الجماعات الإرهابية الممولة من النظام القطري في الصومال خلال شهر جانفى 2013 ، بطبيعة الحال ، هذه العملية الفاشلة تلقى بضلالها و تعمق التوجسات الفرنسية من الدور القطري خاصة بعد حصول غموض حول مصير العميل المحتجز لدى هذه الجماعات الإرهابية المتطرفة ، هذه الأسئلة تتمحور حول الدور القطري في عملية الاحتجاز ، في الأسباب الداعية للمخابرات القطرية للقيام أو الإيعاز للجماعات بهذا الاعتقال ، حول قدرة القطريين في السيطرة على هذه المجموعات ، حول الأسباب التي دعتها إلى عدم التعاون مع الأجهزة الفرنسية ، حول الإرادة القطرية في تحجيم الدور الاستخبارى الفرنسي في منطقة حساسة و حيوية لفرنسا ، و خاصة حول عدم التعاون القطري للإعلام حول مصير المعتقل، يضاف إلى هذا طبعا ما حدث مؤخرا في الصفار ة الفرنسية في ليبيا ، ومحاولة تفجيرها ، و ما يقال عن دور المجموعات الإرهابية المتطرفة التي “تنتسب” للمخابرات القطرية

لا ينكر المتابعون أن استهداف مدير المخابرات القطرية هو حدث مهم و خطير في عرف الدول و في عرف المخابرات بصورة خاصة ، لكن من المهم الإشارة إلى أن هناك اتهامات يمكن توجيهها إلى عدة أطراف متفرقة أخرى لا تخفى انزعاجها من الدور القطري في منطقة حساسة تعانى أصلا من التطرف و من الهشاشة الأمنية ، هناك انزعاج جزائري معروف خاصة بعد اشتباه السلطات الجزائرية في دور قطري في أحداث عين أميناس الأخيرة ، هناك انزعاج سوري من الدور القطري في المؤامرة على سوريا ، هناك انزعاج إيراني خاصة بتنامي التواجد الإيراني في المنطقة الإفريقية ، هناك انزعاج سوداني واضح خاصة بالنظر إلى العلاقة المخابراتية المزدوجة بين النظام القطري و الدولة الصهيونية التي لها تأثير على توتير الأجواء بين الشمال و الجنوب السوداني ، بطبيعة الحال ،لا يمكن اغفال أن هناك صراع بين الجماعات الإرهابية على النفوذ في المنطقة الإفريقية ، و هناك تموقع جديد لهذه الجماعات بعد أحداث 11 سبتمبر 2001 ، و من الممكن أن الدور القطري يعطل هذه المصالح المختلفة لبعض الجماعات الإرهابية التي لا تميل لأسباب متعددة للعلاقة مع النظام القطري ، لا يمكن في النهاية إغفال التوتر بين النظام القطري ، و بين النظام السعودي ، خاصة أن هذا الأخير لا ينظر بعين الرضي لهذه العلاقة القطرية مع الإخوان في العالم العربي ، و يرى فيها بالعكس خطرا كبير على مستقبل النظام السعودي نفسه.

“اغتيال رئيس مخابرات قطر عمل خطير يكشف مدى الاستطلاع المسبق لحركة قطر، أو حركة الأجهزة الأمنية في المنطقة كلها ، و تكشف أن صراع أجهزة مخابرات تمر بالقمة ، و أن الوضع خطير بشكل أن المخابرات تجاوزت الخطوط الحمراء ، التي عادة لا تصل إليها ، ذلك أن من المتعارف عليه أن أجهزة المخابرات لا تقوم بقتل رئيس مخابرات لبلد ثان دون أن تكون هناك حرب حقيقية بين الأطراف ، و يبدو أن تنظيم القاعدة الذي سهل وصول رئيس مخابرات قطر إلى الصومال لم يكن لديه القدرة على ضبط الوضع الاممى فقام تنظيم اسلامى آخر بضرب موكب رئيس مخابرات قطر و دمر سيارته و قتله.

ان مقتل رئيس مخابرات قطر سيجعلها تعيد إلى حد ما نظرتها إلى التحرك ، و كيفيته، و كيفية التعاطي ، فزمن دفع الأموال للأسلحة ، و إرسالها من ليبيا إلى تركيا إلى المعارضة السورية المسلحة أمر ليس سهلا ، و بالتالي فان قطر التي خاضت معركة طرد سوريا من الجامعة العربية بدأت تصاب بأعمال بقمة الخطر ، لان رئيس مخابراتها تم قتله ، و بالتالي فان استهداف شخصيات كبرى قطرية ستظهر أكثر و أكثر ، و بالتالي فان قطر أخذت رسالة كبيرة ، هي اغتيال رئيس مخابراتها”.. هذا ما جاء على موقع ” كل الأردن ” بتاريخ 8/5/2013 .

يبقى التساؤل حول إغفال القناة القطرية ” الجزيرة” لحادث الاغتيال لرئيس مخابرات الدولة ” المضيفة” لهذه القناة ، رغم أهمية الحدث ، و رغم أن كل القنوات الجادة قد تناولته بالنشر و التحليل ، يظهر – و الله اعلم – أن قناة الجزيرة تريد التأكد من الخبر من مصدر مستقل …كعادتها.

بانوراما الشرق الأوسط
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Jewish terror state attack on Syria Nearly Provoked 'All-Out War'

 That was of course the intention. Israel is good at starting wars for the USA
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov find something to hold hands about after urgent talks on
the Syrian conflict.
  Israeli Raid on Syria Nearly Provoked 'All-Out War' (L'Orient Le Jour, Lebanon)
"It took intensive and urgent contact between Moscow, Washington, New York, Damascus, Cairo and Jerusalem to more or less control the escalation. ... Despite the weaponry, the money and men sent to Syria to fight alongside the opposition, they were losing ground to the regime's forces. ... President Obama, according to analysts, was not convinced of the need for his country to directly intervene. ... It was at that point that Israel intervened, offering its services to the Americans. ... the Syrian president was right when he declared that the conflict may provoke an all-out war, but also that the major powers do not want a total war."
By Scarlett Haddad
Translated By Ruth Woodrow
May 10, 2013
Secretary of State John Kerry cools his heels waiting for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin reportedly kept Kerry waiting for three hours.

Throughout the day last Sunday, the region was on the brink of widespread unrest following four Israeli bombings in Syria. It took intensive and urgent contact between Moscow, Washington, New York, Damascus, Cairo and Jerusalem to more or less control the escalation - one which seemed inevitable. While no one can yet say what the future holds, we can, in any event, understand a little better what actually occurred. 
Despite the weaponry, the money and men sent to Syria to fight alongside the opposition, they were losing ground to the regime's forces. The latter had effectively succeeded in regaining control of the road connecting Lattakia to Damascus via Homs which, in a manner of speaking, is the backbone of the country. Political research center reports were beginning to talk of the opposition crumbling in six months if nothing was done to help them. An Arab delegation lead by the Qatari prime minister [Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Than] accompanied by the secretary general of the Arab League [Nabil Elaraby] thus went to the United States to ask for direct American intervention in the Syrian conflict, but American President Barack Obama, according to analysts, was not convinced of the need for his country to directly intervene. He clearly expressed his refusal while exploring the possibility of sending more effective weapons to the opposition. It was at that point, they add, that Israel intervened, offering its services to the Americans. This Israeli gesture came as the Arab delegation proposed, from New York, a plan for a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through an exchange of land between the two parties. According to commentators, this in fact constituted a major concession on the part of the Palestinians, who thereby renounced the right of return and a substantial amount of the territory of Palestine.  
This proposal was seen as a signal from the Arab world, after the tacit American green light given to Israel to launch raids on Syria. The Israeli aircraft took care not to enter Syrian airspace, preferring instead, according to some sources, to once again violate Lebanese sovereignty, to bomb four strategic positions around Damascus at about midnight on Saturday. The targets were Mount Qasioun, where Russian positions are thought to be sited and which faces the Presidential Palace; the seat of the presidential guard; arms and ammunitions depots, and finally, the Jamraya Research Center. All the targets were in the Ghouta sector, which essentially controls entry into Damascus.
These sources add that two hours later, opposition fighters carried out 40 or more attacks on several fronts in the same region with the aim of storming the capital, believing that they could take advantage of the confusion reigning within the army's ranks after the Israeli bombardment. The Syrian regime's Lebanese allies insist in this regard that there was clear coordination between the Syrian opposition and the Israelis. They present as evidence the interview on Israeli television on Sunday given by Hassan Rastouni, one of the opposition's spokespeople, in which he expressed his joy at the Israeli bombings, and added that, according to allies of Damascus, the Israelis had intervened at a time when the opposition was close to despair. On Monday the opposition was quick to disavow Hassan Rastouni, but in the eyes of the Syrian regime's Lebanese allies, the disavowal is a little late.
In principle, then, the plan was perfect. The problems began, however, when it emerged that the Syrian army was prepared and had quietly moved a good proportion of its forces and ammunition. They thus succeeded, according to the regime's Lebanese allies, in repelling the attackers, while continuing to advance in the Qusayr region and suppressing any attempted Sunni uprising in Bayda near Banias (former Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam's home town).

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Arab Official in Washington: "The US & Obama are the only ones who can put Qatar in its place."


US Official: 'The mighty mouse that roared' 
(WSJ) WASHINGTON—"The U.S.'s closest Arab allies are jointly pressing President Barack Obama to take the lead in bridging the Middle East's divisions over Syria, traveling to Washington to personally drive home their fears that some of the region's other leaders are strengthening radicals and prolonging President Bashar al-Assad's rule.
The coordinated message was delivered to Mr. Obama during separate White House meetings in recent weeks with Jordan's King Abdullah II, the United Arab Emirates' Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan and Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, according to senior U.S. and Arab officials familiar with the discussions.
The three royals' message to Mr. Obama was a not-so-subtle slap at Qatar and Turkey—both of which, officials in these Arab countries believe, are funneling funds and possibly weapons to groups promoting political Islam and in particular to those aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood.
"We need someone to manage the players" in the region, said a senior Arab official involved in the discussions. "The U.S. and the president are the only ones who can put Qatar in its place."They are also concerned that aid from Qatar has bolstered the Al-Nusra Front, a powerful Syrian militia fighting Mr. Assad's forces, which the U.S. has designated as a terrorist organization.
Qatari officials, who have publicly denied supporting the Al-Nusra Front, declined to comment Thursday. A Turkish official denied Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government was favoring Islamist parties in Syria or anywhere else in the region. "We just support the rights of the Syrian people," the official said. ....
Riyadh, Amman and Abu Dhabi are positioning themselves as a moderate front in the Syrian crisis, said these officials, seeking to support rebel factions not aligned with the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood or linked to extremist militant groups like al Qaeda..."

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War Scenarios on Syria: Tel Aviv vs. Damascus

Ghassan Jawad - al-Joumhouria newspaper
The Syrian dossier has now taken a new fork, following the US statements on  chemical weapons in Syria, and claims of their usage in the military conflict zones.

 Clearly enough, surfacing and shedding light on this dossier in politics as well as in security are more than just a maneuver by Washington and its allies to increase pressure on Damascus and its allies. Broaching this dossier actually implies either a limited military action or a wider attack, something that would incur new game rules in the region.

The scene of the "Syrian chemical" may be quite similar to that of "Iraq nuclear case." The political, media, and diplomatic snowball is now rolling and crowing, only to herald changes of the rules that have been directing the conflict in Syria for more than two years.

We may see a scenario similar to what happened in Iraq, only this time it is harsher, bloodier, and more destructive, despite differences in details. The US, UK and their allies will not be alone in the confrontation, with Iran, Russia, and China standing in defense of their interests in the Middle East inside and outside Syria. "Israel" would be dealt the biggest ballistic blow in its history if Washington ever attacked Syria, or if it assigned the attack to Tel Aviv, to avoid direct friction with Moscow and Beijing, on the Syrian battlefield that is now open to all possibilities.

Tel Aviv vs. Damascus

This is how the Resistance axis reads any quality development on the Syrian level. The decision that has been taken and that Tehran has conveyed to its allies and rivals means that any military blow against Damascus will be directly countered in Tel Aviv and that the retort will be destructive; the interests of the West in the entire Gulf will also be subject to targeting.

According to the available information, the visit of the Chairman of the Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in Iran, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, to Syria last week, carried along an express stance and confirmed commitment towards Damascus. Informed sources described the equation which Boroujerdi has clinched as a deterrence one. He actually said during his meeting in Syria that Tel Aviv would be vs. Damascus if Washington or "Israel" ever attacked Syria. Within this context, observers saw Boroujerdi's concerted attack on Qatar as a clear Iranian classification of rivals and enemies.

Russia and China

Moscow and Beijing, for their part, are not disparate to the Iranian position rejecting military action against Damascus. But the Russian performance keeps compliant with the US and western diplomacy, and does not implicate in direct messages, at least not before Russia senses that the decision of war has been taken.

Beijing, in turn, which dashed to issue a statement spurning foreign military intervention in Syria under any pretense whatsoever, is still within the frame of the political refusal which shall not develop into first-hand mobilization, unlike Moscow.

Experts of international relations and US policies point out at the importance of the Chinese position in politics, which may drive Washington to avoid any direct friction with China and Russia in Syria, and then to press "Israel" for a determined military act, similarly to what happened in July war in 2006. That year, Washington pressured Tel Aviv to wage a confrontation it was not ready for. "Israel" got out without realizing any military and political score, which brought tremendous victory to the Resistance axis in the region, and embarrassed Washington without totally excluding it from the Lebanese dossier.

Syria is getting ready

Syria is the most concerned with the US statements and intentions. It is acting on the basis that all possibilities are envisaged. Information indicate that the Syrian military command, in coordination with its allies, has devised plans and scenarios taking into account a likely foreign attack.

These scenarios are not new-fangled, and declaring them is not a reaction to the US and western statements. They are rather plans Damascus has put since the beginning of the events, when confrontation seemed wide open and when Damascus realized that the political solution option was just a waste of time, amid a big war the US, Turkey, and the Gulf are leading against the capital of the Umayyad.

While Syrian officials carefully listened to every word Boroujerdi has said during their meetings, information confirm that they notified him of Damascus firm decision as to its readiness to face any attack...Damascus will just not be another Baghdad.
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Syria: Al-Nusra Used "Chemical Weapons" Sourced From Turkey


'b' at MoA

"One of the three alleged "chemical weapon" attacks in Syria was done by chlorine on a checkpoint of the Syrian army. Fifteen soldiers died.Two other attacks which Israel Britain and France alleged were done by the Syrian army and were somewhat mysterious. With collaboration of two bloggers and a photographer the incidents are now likely to be interpreted very different than Israel, Britain and France alleged.
Eliot Higgins, who blogs as Brown Moses, analyzed pictures of ammunition debris found at the two alleged attack sides.The photographer Jeffry Ruigendijk photographed a salafist Al-Nusra fighter carrying a riot control gas canister that looks very similar to the ammunition debris found at the attacked places.
 'al Nusra fellow with 'evidence' before use'
Small arms expert N.R. Jenzen-Jones identified the producer of these canisters and the likely way they found their way into Al-Nusra hands:
 [T]he munitions do appear quite similar to those produced by the Indian Border Security Force’s Tear Smoke Unit (TSU), at their plant in Tekanpur, Madhya Pradesh. Several of their production items appear to share physical similarities with the unidentified grenade, but the closest visual match is their ‘Tear Smoke Chilli Grenade’, seen below. This grenade contains a combination of CS gas ( 2-chlorobenzalmalononitrile) and ‘synthetic chilli’ (likely a synthetic capsaicin, such as nonivamide) – both common riot control agents.
 'Photos (by activists) as 'proof of CW use'
Riot control agents like tear gas or pepper spray can be deadly when, for example, used in closed rooms. They symptoms vary (pdf) but there are usually respiratory problems just as those described by those people who were under the alleged "chemical weapons attack.
So how did the Al-Nusra fighters get their hands on a Indian Border Security Force’s Tear Smoke Unit grenade?
 This Indian news article notes that Turkey purchased 10,025 munitions from TSU in 2007, which may indicate a possible avenue of supply, particularly if the grenades were in the hands of rebel forces, as the image at top appears to indicate.
The "chemical weapon" attacks were not done by the Syrian army. They were done by so called "rebels" with chlorine and with riot control agents by jihadist insurgencies who sourced the gas by stealing it from a Syrian factory and somehow obtained riot control agents from official Turkish state stocks.
The Israeli, the British and the French government tried to instigate a wider war on Syria by making false allegations about "chemical weapon" attacks by the Syrian army. The U.S. nearly joined them in their allegations. Will all those op-ed writers and tried to use the "fact" of chemical weapon usage now call for all out war on Al-Nusra?
Don't bet on it."

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Lebanon’s Armed Forces on the Edge of Paralysis

Lebanese army soldiers arrest a suspect as they patrol a street in the northern coastal city of Tripoli during clashes between pro- and anti-Syrian regime local gunmen on 22 March 2013. (Photo: AFP - Joseph Eid)
Published Friday, May 10, 2013
Lebanon’s key governmental and security institutions are grinding to a halt one by one – the Najib Mikati cabinet resigned, parliament’s term ends in June, and now the Military Council that commands the armed forces has become defunct.

Lebanon’s Military Council, which manages the affairs of the armed forces, can no longer meet after three of its members, having reached legal retirement age, were forced to retire. As of yet, there are no clear plans for their replacements.

The retirements have the council falling short of the quorum necessary for convening and issuing decisions. This could very well lead to the complete paralysis of the armed forces, as the council not only directs the army’s movements, but is responsible for providing the military with everything it needs from food rations to weapons.

After the outgoing Mikati government failed to replace the retired officers on May 2, Lebanese military chief General Jean Kahwaji sent a letter to the Ministry of Defense noting that since the last council meeting on April 30, the army command has received over 30 unresolved files involving such wide-ranging issues as hospitalization, medical supplies, and gas distribution.

In the absence of the Military Council, the law does not provide an alternative authority – even temporarily – to conduct the military’s affairs. This has prompted Kahwaji to indirectly request that he be given the authority to facilitate the work of the council until three new officers are appointed.

Kahwaji did not openly make such a request in his letter to the defense ministry. Instead, he noted that since the resigned Mikati government may not have the authority to appoint new members to the council, the ministry needs to find a mechanism which would allow it to meet.

Kahwaji himself will also reach the legally-set retirement age in September 2013. Sources close to the discussions suggest that Kahwaji will likely be given an extension if the council’s authority is in fact handed over to him.

Two solutions are now being floated to resolve the issue. The first involves a decision on the part of the resigned government to simply appoint three new officers to the council, while the second would occur outside the scope of the cabinet whereby Kahwaji would be given the authority to continue the council’s proceedings temporarily.

This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.
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"The west & its allies cynically bleed Syria to weaken Iran"



"...The fact is intervention has long been a central dimension of the war. The regime forces are backed by Syria's old allies in Russia and Iran. Funding and military support for the rebels come from the US, Britain, France and their regional allies: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan.Airlifts of arms to the Syrian rebels, co-ordinated by the CIA, have increased sharply in recent months to become what one former US official calls a "cataract of weaponry". British and American forces are training rebel fighters in Jordan. The worth of US aid to the Syrian opposition has doubled to $250m, while the EU has now lifted its oil embargo to allow exports from rebel-held areas.
The result of foreign intervention has of course been to escalate the conflict. Now pressure is building on the Obama administration to go further and supply weapons directly. Among those pushing for more intervention is David Cameron – anxious to ingratiate himself with the Gulf dictators – who has been pressing for the EU arms embargo to be lifted.
The intention is to build up the west's favoured groups and weaken the role of jihadists who have taken centre stage as the war has gone on. They include Jabhat al-Nusra, which now controls swaths of rebel-held territory and has declared allegiance to al-Qaida.
The irony of the US and other western governments – let alone Israel – once again making common cause with al-Qaida, after a decade of a "war on terror" aimed at destroying it, is one factor holding Obama back. So is the risk of being drawn into all-out war (publicly raised by Britain's chief of the defence staff); the hostility of American public opinion (mirrored in Britain and the Arab world); and the aftermath of intervention in Libya, where militias have been besieging government offices demanding the ousting of western-backed Gaddafi-era leaders....
The result will certainly be to ratchet up the death toll and spread the war. If they were genuinely interested in saving lives – instead of neutralising Syria to undermine Iran – western leaders would be using their leverage with the rebels' regional sponsors to negotiate a political settlement that would allow Syrians to determine their own future. ..."

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Iran Unveils ‘Epic’ New UAV

Local Editor
Iranian Hemashe (Farsi), Epic droneIran unveiled its Hemaseh drone (in Farsi), meaning 'epic' in English as its latest reconnaissance-combat drone on Thursday during a ceremony attended by Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi.

Brightly painted in the colors of Iran’s national flag and sporting what looked to be two dummy missiles under its wings, the domestically built drone is said to possess stealth capabilities that would allow it to evade enemy radar.

“This drone has been built by defense industry experts and is simultaneously capable of surveillance, reconnaissance and missile and rocket attacks,” Vahidi said during the unveiling.

“This aircraft with its stealth quality can avoid detection by the enemy,” he added.

In an earlier report produced by Iran’s official Fars News Agency (FNA) the Islamic Republic said it has built “tens of different types” of unmanned aerial vehicles, and touts this latest model as the country’s most advanced. According to the FNA, 30 of a total of 40 types of drone models has already entered the production line.

In recent years Iran has unveiled several drone models, such as the long-range Karrar in August 2010, and more recently the Shahed 129 model publicly disclosed in September 2012.
Source: Websites
10-05-2013 - 19:55 Last updated 10-05-2013 - 19:55
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محمد بدير

تحت عنوان «حزب الله 2013»، نشرت صحيفة «إسرائيل اليوم» تحقيقاً موسعاً عن التحولات التي طرأت على البنية العسكرية لحزب الله في أعقاب حرب تموز 2006. يقدم التحقيق صورة عامة عن الجهوزية القتالية للحزب على مستوى العدة والعديد، هي صورة «حزب الله كما لم تعرفوه من قبل».
«الحرب القادمة بين حزب الله وإسرائيل ستأتي. بعد شهر، بعد سنة، بعد عدة سنوات. لكنها ستأتي». وعندما تأتي، ستواجه إسرائيل «المنظمة التي تشكل التهديد الأساسي على العمق الإسرائيلي»؛ إذ إن «تلك التي عرفناها في منتصف سنوات الألفين تغيرت إلى درجة لم نعد نعرفها: حزب الله 2013 هو منظمة أكثر استقلالية، أكثر تسلحاً، وأكثر جرأة».

في تقريرها، تشرح «إسرائيل اليوم» كيف استعد حزب الله منذ «حرب لبنان الثانية» للحرب القادمة، وكيف «ساعدته سبع سنوات من الهدوء في التسلّح والتطوير وتجنيد القوات والسعي إلى إعداد المفاجآت لإسرائيل. فهناك أيضاً، كما في الجيش الإسرائيلي، يعرفون أن الحرب آتية لا محالة، عاجلاً أو آجلاً».

وبحسب الصحيفة، إن أحد المواضيع الأساسية التي ركّز عليها الحزب هو التزود الصامت بترسانة صاروخية تشمل نحو 60 ألف صاروخ تمثّل تهديداً حقيقياً ومباشراً للجبهة الداخلية الإسرائيلية. ووفق التقديرات الإسرائيلية، إن الغالبية المطلقة من هذه الصواريخ ذات مدى قصير يبلغ عشرات الكيلومترات، ونحو 5000 صاروخ منها ذات مدى متوسط يبلغ 250 كلم، وهي صواريخ قادرة على الوصول إلى تل أبيب ومحيطها، إضافة إلى نحو 300 صاروخ بعيدة المدى تغطي كل «الأراضي الإسرائيلية».

وتنقل «إسرائيل اليوم» عن مصادر في المؤسسة الأمنية الإسرائيلية قولها إنه «إذا كان حزب الله عام 2006 قادراً على إطلاق بضع مئات من الصواريخ ذات رأس حربي زنته 300 كلغ على منطقة غوش دان (تل أبيب وضحواحيها)، فإنه اليوم بات قادراً على إطلاق كمية أكبر بعشرة أضعاف باتجاه وسط البلاد».

لكن ما يقض مضاجع كبار الضباط في الجيش الإسرائيلي ليس عدد الصواريخ غير المعروف، بل تحسن دقتها. ففي الماضي، «اعتاد المسؤولون الإسرائيليون القول لفترة طويلة إن معظم الصواريخ التي يمتلكها حزب الله «إحصائية»، أي إنها ذات دقة منخفضة جداً. لكن في السنوات الأخيرة تلقت المنظمة صواريخ دقيقة، مثل M 600 المصنعة في سوريا، وهي صيغة أقل فتكاً من صواريخ «فاتح 110» التي دُمرت نهاية الأسبوع الفائت بالقرب من دمشق». كذلك يمتلك الحزب، كما تنقل الصحيفة عن مصادر أجنبية، «عدداً محدوداً من صواريخ سكود D التي تُعَدّ دقيقة نسبياً». وتوضح الصحيفة الخطورة التي تشكلها دقة الصواريخ بالنسبة إلى إسرائيل؛ إذ «يمكنها أن تسمح لمنظمة حسن نصر الله بأن تستهدف بفعالية بنى تحتية قومية وعسكرية، من بينها المطارات، منشآت للتجنيد ومراكز قيادة وسيطرة تابعة للجيش». والتقدير السائد في المؤسسة الأمنية الإسرائيلية هو أنه إذا لم يحصل تغيير في أسلوب العمل، ولم تنفذ عمليات وقائية فعالة، فإن الحزب سينجح في السنوات الخمس القادمة في تحقيق نياته بالتزود بمئات الصواريخ الدقيقة. وتنقل الصحيفة عن مصدر عسكري رفيع قوله إنه «إذا كان لدى حزب الله عشرات آلاف الصواريخ غير الدقيقة، فهذا ليس أمراً فظيعاً، لكن إن كان لديه مئات أو حتى عشرات الصواريخ الدقيقة، فهذا أمر سيئ جداً». ومع ذلك، يرى الرئيس السابق لشعبة الاستخبارات العسكرية، عاموس يادلين، أنه «اليوم أيضاً لا ينبغي الاستهانة بالقوة النارية للمنظمة». وتذكّر «إسرائيل اليوم» بما قاله رئيس الأركان الإسرائيلي، بيني غانتس، ضمن هذا السياق خلال الكلمة التي ألقاها أمام معهد أبحاث الأمن القومي قبل أسابيع، حيث رأى أن «حزب الله هو المنظمة غير الدولتية الوحيدة التي تمتلك ترسانات بأحجام كهذه، بل إن دولاً لا تملك ما تملكه».

وعلى ذمة الصحيفة، يحاول حزب الله، في إطار مساعيه للتسلح، وضع يده على منظومات أسلحة متطورة موجودة في سوريا وإيران، مثل منظومات متطورة مضادة للطائرات، صواريخ بر ــــ بحر حديثة، وربما أيضاً أسلحة كيميائية. والتقدير السائد في إسرائيل هو أنه «حتى اليوم لا يمتلك صواريخ بر ـــ بحر حديثة من طراز «ياخونت» الروسية الصنع، برغم أن صواريخ كهذه موجودة بيد سوريا. إذا نجحت المنظمة في حيازة هذه الصواريخ، فقد يسمح لها هذا الأمر بتهديد سفن سلاح البحرية وممتلكات إسرائيل الاستراتيجية في البحر بشكل كبير». كذلك لا تزال التقديرات الإسرائيلية ترى أنه «لا يوجد بعد لدى حزب الله منظومات مضادة للطائرات متطورة من نوع SA-17 التي قد تهدد حرية عمل سلاح الجو». وفي هذا الإطار، تذكر الصحيفة أن «القافلة التي كانت تنقل هذه الصواريخ إلى جنوب لبنان استهدفتها إسرائيل في سوريا نهاية كانون الثاني، وفق مصادر أجنبية».

على مستوى العديد البشري، يكشف التقرير الصحفي العبري أن التقديرات الإسرائيلية تشير إلى أن عدد أعضاء الحزب اليوم يراوح بين 20 و40 ألفاً. ويوضح الدكتور شمعون شابيرا، أن «مقاتلي الحزب مقسمون إلى مجالات متعددة». يضيف: «لديهم كل شيء تقريباً، من مجموعات المضاد للطائرات حتى قوة غواصين متخصصين، قوة جوية، قدرات مراقبة وقدرات استخبارية. في جهاز الاستخبارات لديهم يتعلمون العبرية، وهم يستخدمون أجهزة تنصت متطورة تأتيهم من إيران. كان يمكن رؤية ذلك من خلال العتاد الذي استولى عليه الجيش الإسرائيلي في حرب لبنان الثانية. القوة النظامية للمنظمة تقضي وقتها في تدريبات وفي نشاط عملاني، وفي الآونة الأخيرة في سوريا بالأخص. عندما لا يكونون في سوريا، فإنهم يخضعون لتدريبات وعمليات المراقبة». وإلى القوة المقاتلة، يوجد لدى حزب الله أيضاً «آلاف المدنيين الذي يخدمون بصفتهم قوات احتياط ليوم الأمر».

وعلى صعيد الانتشار، يُعد «التمركز في قرى جنوب لبنان جزءاً لا يتجزأ من الجهد الدفاعي الثابت للمنظمة، حيث في كل قرية بضع مئات من الناشطين، يصل عددهم إلى 200، وظيفتهم الأساسية هي الدفاع البري، بواسطة قذائف الهاون، صواريخ قصيرة المدى وصواريخ مضادة للدروع. وظيفة هذه القوات ستكون بالأساس قتالاً شرساً مقابل قوات سلاح المشاة والمدرعات للجيش الإسرائيلي». وفضلاً عن الجهد الدفاعي «يركّز حزب الله في المواجهة القادمة أيضاً على محاولة خلق وعي هجومي، سواء بواسطة إطلاق طائرات غير مأهولة، حيث حاول فعل ذلك، أو بواسطة استهداف طائرة أو سفينة إسرائيلية، أو بواسطة عمليات داخل الأراضي الإسرائيلية. وفي المؤسسة الأمنية يقدّرون أنه بعكس مواجهات الماضي، التي دار فيها قتال في الأراضي اللبنانية بالأساس، ستحاول المنظمة نقل جزء من القتال إلى الأراضي الإسرائيلية عبر إدخال «خلية قتل» أو حتى احتلال مستوطنة إسرائيلية صغيرة لفترة زمنية معينة». يضيف التقرير أنه في إطار الجهود الهجومية، لم يتخلّ حزب الله عن رغبته بمفاجأة إسرائيل، على سبيل المثال، من خلال إطلاق طائرات من دون طيار محملة بمواد متفجرة باتجاه العمق الإسرائيلي. وفي حوزة الحزب العشرات من هذه الطائرات، من بينها طائرات كبيرة ومتطورة نسبياً، من صناعة إيران، وصغيرة جداً، مثلاً طائرات تجريبية وطائرات نموذجية، من الصعب جداً أن تكتشفها رادارات سلاح الجو.

وفي إسرائيل، بحسب التقرير، «يتحدثون كثيراً عن الوعي في المعركة القادمة. ليس فقط الإنجازات، بل أيضاً كيف ستبدو الأمور. كذلك في حزب الله يدركون أن للحرب في العصر الرقمي طابعاً مختلفاً: ليس فقط حرب عصابات قياسية، بل أيضاً معركة على الصورة».
لكن بانتظار الحرب، وبرغم إشارات كثيرة على ازدياد مستوى الجرأة لدى حزب الله للتحرش بإسرائيل، إلا أن التقديرات الإسرائيلية ترى أنه لا يزال «يحاول السير بين النقاط وتنفيذ عمليات لا تستدعي، حسب تقديره، رداً إسرائيلياً في لبنان ـــ مثلاً عمليات ضد أهداف إسرائيلية ويهودية في الخارج».

والمسؤول عن هذه العمليات هي «وحدة العمليات الخارجية التي تبذل جهوداً جبارة في هذا الموضوع. والتقدير هو أن رغم الغارات الأخيرة في سوريا، التي نُسبت إلى إسرائيل، ستزداد حافزية المنظمة للعمل في هذا المسار... وهذه العمليات، مثل كل عمليات المنظمة، موجهة وممولة من قبل إيران. في إسرائيل معتادون القول إن حزب الله هو «فرقة إيرانية» على أرض لبنان: التقدير هو أن إيران تنقل سنوياً إلى المنظمة نحو مليار دولار لتمويل النشاطات العسكرية، التسلح والنشاط المدني».

الأسد الابن فعل ما لم يفعله أبوه

كانت سوريا لسنوات الظهير اللوجستي لحزب الله. هناك حافظت المنظمة على وسائلها القتالية المتطورة، لحمايتها من استهداف إسرائيل، معتقدة أن هناك إمكانية لنقلها إلى لبنان في يوم الأمر. لكن بحسب الرئيس السابق لشعبة الاستخبارات، عاموس يادلين، «بات الحزب في الآونة الأخيرة يشعر بأن مخازن سلاحه غير آمنة، ولذلك هو يحاول نقل الوسائل القتالية إلى لبنان. وإذا أضفنا إلى ذلك الشحنات الجديدة التي وصلت من إيران ومن روسيا، يمكن ملاحظة أن حركة السلاح من سوريا ومن إيران إلى لبنان، التي بدأت قبل عشر سنوات، تجددت بكل قوة. ما لم يجرؤ الأسد الأب على فعله، فعله ابنه أيّما فعل. وهذه أيضاً خلفية الغارات الأخيرة. في إسرائيل، يعتقدون أنه في ظل الوضع الذي تشكّل، من غير المؤكد عموماً أن المنظمة بحاجة إلى سوريا، فضلاً عن أنها لم تنتظر قط قوات مساندة سورية تأتي وقت الأزمة. كذلك أيام حرب لبنان الثانية لم يضطر الجيش السوري إلى مساعدة حزب الله».

   ( السبت 2013/05/11 SyriaNow) 
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