Uprooted Palestinians are at the heart of the conflict in the M.E Palestinians uprooted by force of arms. Yet faced immense difficulties have survived, kept alive their history and culture, passed keys of family homes in occupied Palestine from one generation to the next.
لا يحتاج الأمر إلى تحليل ونقاش لاستنتاج محورية قطاع الكهرباء في أزمة لبنان المالية، فأزمة المازوت هي فرع من أزمة الكهرباء، ومتى توافرت الكهرباء تراجعت الحاجة للمازوت إلى أقل من الربع، وتأمين الكهرباء يستدعي زيادة الإنتاج، وهذا يتطلب تمويلاً لإنشاء المعامل ومثله لتشغيلها، ومن دون زيادة الإنتاج فإن تشغيل المعامل القائمة يستدعي توفير الوقود اللازم، وهذا يحتاج للتمويل، والتمويل بالعملات الصعبة، والدولة ومصرفها المركزي لم يعد لديهما القدرة على تأمين هذا التمويل، وشراء العملات الصعبة من السوق سيرفع سعر الصرف ويدفع بالدولار إلى أسعار مقلقة تعني مزيداً من الانهيار، والذهاب لتمويل عبر القروض بلا أفق، لأنه تراكم لديون لا يملك لبنان جواباً عن كيفية سدادها، وعندما يجري البحث بتمويل معامل جديدة من قروض خارجية سواء عبر صندوق النقد الدولي أو سواه، مهما كانت ميسرة ومؤخرة، تبقى كلفة التشغيل بقروض كمثل قرض البنك الدولي المفترض لتمويل استجرار الغاز المصري وشراء الكهرباء من الأردن، وهي قروض قد تتوافر لجزء من الحاجة وجزء من الوقت، لكنها لن تتوافر لكل الحاجة وكل الوقت.
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أمام لبنان طريق وحيد لتفادي السقوط، وهو أن يحصل على وقود التشغيل بطريق يشبه المساعدة العراقية، ولا يبدو أن الحكومات العربية الأخرى التي تملك قدرات نفطية جاهزة للسير على خطى العراق، لكن إيران سبقت الجميع وقالت بلسان مسؤوليها مراراً، وكرر الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله التأكيد على جاهزية إيران لتأمين المحروقات التي يحتاجها لبنان، بما فيها وقود تشغيل معامل الكهرباء بالليرة اللبنانية، وهذا العرض الذي لم يلق الاهتمام اللازم تحول إلى مبادرة مباشرة من حزب الله بجلب سفن كسر الحصار، التي قدمت حلاً لجانب من أزمة فقدان المازوت من الأسواق، وأصابت سلم تسعير الاحتكارات التي فرضت معادلات تتحكم بموجبها بالتسعير والسوق، وإذا كانت معامل توليد الكهرباء التي يسعى لبنان لتأمينها تحت شعار زيادة التغذية ثم زيادة التعرفة، لوضع حد لخسائر كهرباء لبنان، فهذا يستدعي ربط التعرفة الجديدة للكهرباء بسعر الدولار، الذي سيضرب سقوفاً قياسية إذا بقي تأمين الوقود اللازم للتشغيل مرتبطاً بتمويل يعتمد على شراء الدولارات من السوق، وهذا يعني الانتقال “من تحت الدلف لتحت المزراب”.
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خيار لبنان الوحيد الإنقاذي الذي ربما لا ينتبه له المسؤولون، أو يخافون أن ينتبهوا له، هو أن يكون لدى لبنان من يزوده بالوقود اللازم لتشغيل معامل الكهرباء بالليرة اللبنانية، فذلك هو الطريق الوحيد الذي يمنع إسهام الطلب على الدولارات اللازمة لشراء الوقود في التسبب برفع متواصل لسعر الصرف وبالتالي سعر التعرفة، وصولاً لحد الانفجار، وتأمين الوقود بالليرة اللبنانية يقع في صلب العروض الإيرانية المتكررة، والعرض الذي أعاد تقديمه وزير الخارجية الإيراني حول بناء معامل الكهرباء يستحق من يناقش تفاصيله مع الجانب الإيراني، لأن لا نقاش حول الجوانب التقنية وأهلية الشركات الإيرانية وقد قامت بإنهاض قطاع الكهرباء في بلادها، وصولاً لتحقيق فائض تبيعه إيران لباكستان والعراق وعدد من دول آسيا الوسطى، وحالياً لأفغانستان وفقاً للتفاهم الجديد بين الحكومتين الإيرانية والأفغانية، ومسؤولية الحكومة اللبنانية كبيرة اليوم في أن تحمل العرض الإيراني بمضمونه التفصيلي لجهة الاعتماد على تمويل بالليرة اللبنانية، وأن تذهب للمعترضين داخلياً وخارجياً وتقول إنه الحل الوحيد الذي يناسب لبنان، وعلى من يعترض أو يرفض أو يهدد بعقوبات أن يقول لا تشتروا من إيران فنحن جاهزون لتزويدكم بالمثل بذات الشروط والأسعار وبالتسعير بالليرة اللبنانية، وما لم نحصل على مثيل فالأمر يستحق المخاطرة بالتعرض للعقوبات، لأنه طريق وحيد لعدم الانهيار، فما نفع الموت وأنت غير معاقب طالما أمامك فرصة العيش ولتكن معاقباً، وعندها تعرف العدو من الصديق.
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تجربة سفن كسر الحصار تقول إن حكومة تملك بعض الشجاعة تستطيع أن تستفيد من العروض الإيرانية لتحفيز الآخرين لعروض مقابلة، أو على الأقل للاستثناء من العقوبات.
A news report surrounding a Russian offer to help resolve the long-standing electricity problem of Lebanon, which has devolved into a severe crisis in recent months.
The electricity problem in Lebanon is a highly politicised and controversial issue. This report suggests that it is the Americans and the local oil cartels within Lebanon that are blocking such a Russian offer from being accepted by the government in Beirut that would ease the suffering of the Lebanese people.
To whom it may concern, the Russian offer to resolve (Lebanon’s) electricity problem still stands, and these are its most recent developments.
Dr. Hassan Moqalled, Editor-in-Chief of the academic journal Al-E’mar w-al-Eqtisad (Construction and Economy):
In 7-10 days, a Russian company is going to come to Lebanon. It is one of the major (Russian) firms. It will come to present its offer in written form. This is no secret, I myself relayed the offer to relevant authorities (in Lebanon) – specifically to (Lebanon’s Energy) Minister – four days ago during my stay in Moscow. However, we’re going to give (the Minister) a complete and official presentation of the offer in 7-10 days.
Walid Fayad, Lebanon’s Energy Minister:
I’ll tell you whenever we receive a concrete offer (from Russia), so far there’s nothing concrete,
Reporter:
The intent is not to begin a pointless discussion or argument (with the Minister). In any case the Russian offer will become clearer and more concrete in a matter of days. In order to help clarify the contents of the (Russian) offer to officials in Lebanon, here is (an explanation).
Dr. Moqalled:
As for the offer, again, this is an offer to build an oil refinery (capable of refining) 150,000 barrels a day. During the first stage, a refinery can be built within a period of six months that can refine 20,000 barrels a day, while construction (of the refinery so that it can operate at full capacity) will take 12-18 months. The company will also supply Lebanon with its fuel needs until construction of the refinery is complete.
Reporter:
Clearly (this is a brilliant offer), as evidenced by the numbers. So how can an offer like this be refused, (an offer that will save) hundreds of millions of dollars (being spent) on temporary solutions that will only serve to increase power supply by a few hours (per day)? Who can block (such an offer)?
Dr. Moqalled:
Firstly, a large portion of officials (in Lebanon) believe that no solution can be accepted unless it comes from within the American orbit. Secondly, there is the sheer magnitude of the interests of the (local) oil cartels (at stake here], which is valued at hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
Energy Minister Walid Fayad:
Bring (the offer) to me next time. Bring it to me please.
Reporter:
It is on its way. The Russian offer will be presented yet again, just as the energy minister requested. This is an opportunity that only requires a decision…yet again.
In a guidance document titled: “COVID-19 Guidance for Individuals Vaccinated Outside of Ontario/Canada”, Canada’s Ministry of Health [MOH] officially authorizes Iran’s Barekat COVID-19 vaccine – an indirect recognition of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s efforts in the medical field as well as in the global fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
The MOH document is intended to provide health care providers and Public Health Units [PHUs] with approaches for individuals who have received COVID-19 vaccination outside of Ontario or Canada.
In the document, Canada’s MOH adds a list of other COVID-19 vaccines which are now authorized for use by Health Canada in addition to the four already authorized: Pfizer-BioNTech [mRNA], Moderna [mRNA], AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD [viral vector] and Janssen/Johnson & Johnson [viral vector].
Ironically, by officially recognizing the Iranian COVID vaccine, Canada has broken the sanctions imposed on Iran which have resulted in severely limiting Iranian companies and hospitals from purchasing essential medicines and medical equipment from outside Iran that residents depend upon for critical medical care during the pandemic.
Various vaccines, biological and chemical products and medical devices – including medical supplies, instruments, equipment, equipped ambulances, institutional washing machines for sterilization and vehicles carrying medical testing equipment, have been blocked by the US from being exported to Iran.
This means blocking some of the equipment crucial to fighting the virus, such as decontamination equipment and full-mask respirators.
With the mounting of sanction and the former US administration’s so-called “maximum pressure”, Iran has proven its worth against all odds.
Ironically, Miller’s book, “Bad News for Labour: Anti-Semitism, the Party and Public Belief,” detailed how bogus charges of anti-Semitism were weaponized against Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in order to defame and destroy him.
Instead of simply stopping its human rights abuses, the Israeli government has built an extensive and sophisticated public relations network across the West in order to protect itself from criticism.
Today, Lowkey speaks to one of the latest victims of that smear campaign, Professor David Miller. A prominent critic of the state of Israel’s policies, Miller was recently sacked from his position as Professor of Sociology at the University of Bristol, after a pressure campaign involving Zionist student groups and even members of parliament, who accused him of “inciting hatred against Jewish students.”
Miller, a graduate of the University of Glasgow Media Group, was appointed to his position at Bristol University in 2018. He also held positions at the University of Strathclyde from 2004 until 2011 and the University of Bath from 2011 until 2018.
Miller is the creator of the websites SpinWatch and Powerbase, both of which are dedicated to revealing networks of influence and power in Western society. Much of his academic work revolved around Islamophobia in the post-9/11 era. Miller maintained that Zionist organizations were one source of anti-Muslim bigotry, an accusation that put him on a collision course with those groups.
The final blow came late last month, as the university, under enormous external pressure, sacked Miller, citing his comments that certain Jewish students were being used as “pawns of Israel.”
Miller’s case has drawn considerable attention from those who see it as a harbinger of things to come. An open letter to Bristol University defending him as an “eminent scholar” was signed by hundreds of academics and public intellectuals — including prominent Jewish public intellectuals such as Noam Chomsky, Judith Butler, Norman Finkelstein and Illan Pappe, who described him as a trailblazer “exposing the role that powerful actors and well-resourced, co-ordinated networks play in manipulating and stage-managing public debates, including on racism.”
Miller described the disciplinary procedure as “a shambolic process that seems to have been vetted by external actors,” adding that, “Israel’s assets in the U.K. have been emboldened by the university collaborating with them to shut down teaching about Islamophobia. The University of Bristol is no longer safe for Muslim, Arab or Palestinian students.”
Miller is far from the first academic to be targeted in such a manner, and it is unlikely that he will be the last. Ironically, Miller’s book, “Bad News for Labour: Anti-Semitism, the Party and Public Belief,” detailed how bogus charges of anti-Semitism were weaponized against Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in order to defame and destroy him. Just such an occurrence appears to have happened in his case as well.
For all the talk of cancel culture, it is highly unlikely that Miller’s case will be taken up by the usual suspects who pontificate about the increasingly stifling atmosphere on university campuses.
Join us as Lowkey and Miller discuss his work, his dismissal, and the network of power Israel has built in the West.
54 years after his martyrdom, Guevara’s historic visit to the Palestinian Gaza in 1959 continues to stand as a token of resilience for liberation and resistance movements in Palestine and the world.
Che’s visit to Palestine came in support of Palestinian national liberation and revolutionary movements against imperialism and colonization
Mohammed was 13 years old when Marxist revolutionary Ernesto Che Guevara paid his first visit to the Gaza Strip that was, at the time, administered by Egypt.
Little did he know that he will become a resistance icon and nicknamed “Gaza’s Guevara” for his tremendous role in the resistance against the Israeli occupation in Gaza and his continuous revolt against injustice and colonialism, as well as his ability to hide and confuse the enemy.
Originally, Mohammed al-Aswad, or “Gaza’s Guevara” was born in the coastal city of Haifa in 1946. Later, the boy and his family sought refuge after they were displaced from their city as a result of the 1948 Nakba and eventually ended up in a refugee camp in Gaza.
Al-Aswad grew up to become a resistance activist against “Israel,” and was jailed for two years. After his release in 1970, he joined the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and gradually got promoted to commander of the PFLP military wing in the Gaza Strip.
During that time, he focused on training and educating resistance forces, as well as organizing demonstrations and strikes against the occupation, applying Martyr Bassel al-Araj’s doctrine: “If you don’t want to be engaged (in fighting oppression), your intellect is pointless.”
His integrity made Moshe Dayan, former Israeli occupation Minister of Security, say, “We run Gaza by day, and Guevara and his comrades run it at night.”
Three years later, “Gaza’s Guevara” was martyred during a heroic battle in the Strip.
Ernesto Che Guevara’s visit to Gaza
Martyr Mohammed al-Aswad’s story is vivid proof of the significant and strong relationship between Che Guevara and the Palestinian cause, which Gaza has become the symbol of.
In fact, Che Guevara’s visit to the Strip on June 18, 1959, at the invitation of the late Egyptian President and leader Gamal Abdel-Nasser, came to establish a state of solidarity and harmony between Cuba and the Palestinian cause.
His visit to Gaza transformed the cause from regional to global and reflected his famous phrase: “Solidarity is a condition that must always be practiced.”
The Israeli occupation of Palestine and the systematic ethnic cleansing against its population triggered the establishment of Palestinian Resistance forces and the emergence of freedom fighters, legitimized by Abdel-Nasser, who was considered a leader against colonialism and imperialism.
To break the determination and resilience of the Resistance, Israeli occupation forces, led by Ariel Sharon, Prime Minister from 2001 till 2006, continuously attacked the Gaza Strip and its refugee camps, committing horrible massacres against many Palestinians and Egyptian soldiers, with no reaction from the international community that simply turned a blind eye to the Israeli atrocities.
A historic visit by all means
Che’s visit came in support of Palestinian national liberation and revolutionary movements against imperialism and colonization.
It was an exceptional visit that was met enthusiastically by resistance leaders and Palestinians.
He was accompanied to al-Bureij Camp, where Israelis committed some of the most horrible massacres, and saw the poverty and hardship that Palestinians were living in, advised Palestinian leaders to pursue the path of resistance, which they tread through their people’s resilience and steadfastness.
During the visit, he addressed the camp leader Mustafa Abu Midyan, saying, “You should show me what you have done to liberate your country. Where are the training camps? Where are the arms manufacturing factories? Where are the people’s mobilization centers?” With these words, Guevara was trying to lay out the foundations necessary for any resistance movement.
At the same time, he urged Palestinian refugees to continue their struggle in order to liberate their land from the occupation, offering to supply the Palestinian resistance with arms and training.
In an interview for Al Mayadeen, his daughter, Dr. Aleida Guevara, quoted her father as saying, “The Middle East is considered, with all of its contradictions, a region that is boiling, and it is not possible to predict how far the war between Israel – which is supported by imperialists – and progressive countries in the region will go.”
And the impact still echoes
Following the historic visit, Cuba offered scholarships, granted citizenships, and organized many conferences all in support of Palestine and the Palestinian people.
In addition, the island of Cuba was one of the first countries to recognize the Palestine Liberation Organization when it was founded in 1964.
Soon after his visit, the Marxist doctor became an icon for the Palestinian resistance and fighters and a symbol of revolution, especially for leftist movements.
Hasta Siempre
On this occasion, on the 54th anniversary of his martyrdom, it goes without saying that Che’s resistance, integrity, and solidarity is what we are in need of to liberate the oppressed nations, such as Palestine, Yemen, and any country in the world from Western imperialism, colonialism, and military occupation. His memory still brings forth devoted revolutionary resistance figures such “Gaza’s Guevara”, Mohammed al-Aswad.
Armed with his forwardness and valor, he would have been on the frontlines in Gaza fighting the Israeli siege. He would have been digging, using a tool as simple as a spoon, alongside the other six, the freedom tunnel that liberates the whole of Palestine from the operators of the Gilboa Prison.
The revolutionary commander’s daughter spoke about a multitude of subjects on her father’s 54th assassination anniversary, notably the Palestinian cause and the dangers of Arab division.
The revolutionary commander’s daughter spoke about a multitude of subjects on her father’s 54th assassination anniversary, notably the Palestinian cause and the dangers of Arab division.
In an interview with Al Mayadeen, Aleida revealed her belief that had her father remained alive, things would have been different in Bolivia and Argentina, as he most assuredly would not have surrendered due to his belief of “fight for the oppressed or die fighting.”
Che’s visit to the Middle-East was also recalled, with Aleida describing his conscious realization of the boiling nature of the region due to colonization, the harsh circumstances surrounding its populations, and the endless pressures performed by major powers trying to steal its resources, “notably its oil.”
Linking the current divisions of the Arab world with the Marxist revolutionary’s experience in Cuba, she stressed the importance of “people’s unification”, notably as the sectarian rifts sowed by European colonial powers are dangerously threatening the Arab World’s unity and ability to progress.
On Palestine
In this context, Aleida mentioned her father’s visit to Palestine in 1959. She decreed her love for Palestine, whom her father visited which she considers not only to be a historical nation but a major cause, as she decried “Israel’s” plan to colonize the whole of the Middle East and not simply the Palestinian lands illegally handed over by the UN.
Further diving into the cause, Che’s daughter assured that Lebanon, Syria, and Iran are the only regional countries actively championing a righteous stance towards Palestine, whilst the rest appear to apply a palliative treatment. She mentioned Cuba in this context, which despite being distant from the region, still recently severed all diplomatic relations with “Israel” in solidarity with the Palestinian people.
“If you go to the South of Lebanon, you will find remains of Israeli prisons, where you can see with your own eyes what an Israeli prison means, let alone one with extreme security measures,” she added.
She called for the commandment of the prisoners, whose deed should be applauded, supported, and preserved given the historical nature of their struggle, notably under the occupation’s inhumane prison conditions.
Aleida Guevara concluded that the Palestinian people should be supported and that “we must fight with them side by side,” which is an extension of Che’s motto of “solidarity not only being the act raising our voices, but also coming to the aid of our comrades when they need us.”
El Commandante’s daughter has previously sent a letter to Al Mayadeen, on the occasion of the launch of its new website in English, in which she urged the world and the website to “defend the truth above anything else,” and stressing that “correct information, truthful information are essential, and that is what Al Mayadeen does with the stories it gives us every day.”
Biden regime continues its war crimes against Syria. On 8 October, the supremacist US state again illegally entered the Syria Arab Republic with a convoy of fifty-six trucks and tankers, loaded with illegal weapons, ammunitions, and “logistical materials.” This massive convoy also included eight “new Hummer military vehicles” — courtesy of American taxpayers, struggling to put food on their tables, and to avoid joining the masses of homeless people. The unindicted war criminal Biden regime illegally entered through the al Waleed crossing from the still US-occupied state of Iraq.
Al Walid continues to be used by Biden regime forces. Those who fantasize about differences between the Democrats and the Republicans are prima facie evidence of the success of the CIA’s Operation Mockingbird.
We offer a quick reminder to the NATO Goebbels Nazi junta that occupies the United Nations, that the sacred Charter declares: All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
Biden regime troops breach International Law & Charter, as the Nazi junta of the UN collectively avert its gaze.
This most recent war crime against Syria, by the Biden regime illegals is especially disconcerting, coming on the heels of intelligence reports that UN terror states of Belgium and France have been engaged in setting the stage for another false flag chemical attack against the SAR, which in turn would be used as the cover story of the unindicted war criminals on the UNSC, to bomb Syria for their al Qaeda troops.
The author makes note of the hypocrisy of her fellow countrymen, in their phony left/right, phony partisan hypocrisy involving our ongoing border crisis.
This map clearly shows that Syria is not part of the US.
The criminal convoy, and the American illegal troops were headed toward al Hasakah, Syria, to reinforce the illegal Biden military bases throughout the governate, and to beef up the Obama created SDF armed separatist terrorist cannon fodder whose purpose is to help NATO impose a new Sykes-Picot on the Levantine republic.
The US demanded the terrorist, separatist armed Kurds change their name.
Syria News also — and again — reminds our readers that when Obama launched his fascist war criminal coalition to bomb Syria, when Trump unilaterally bombed Syria for al Qaeda in Khan Sheikhoun, that when Trump, May, and Macron bombed Syria for al Qaeda in Douma, when Biden bombed Syria — because he could — these atrocities were committed without the necessary UNSC resolution. The imperial, racist scum ruling the UN issued no complaints against these rogue terror states acting against the noble Charter.
The Biden regime forces have illegally brought more weapons into the Syrian Arab Republic. The NATO terrorists occupying the UN will continue to remain silent over this ongoing breach of the UN Charter.
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Facebook has “wrongfully removed” content by Palestinians and pro-Palestine activists, Human Rights Watch said in a report released on Friday.
According to the New York-based international NGO, Facebook unfairly removed posts describing human rights abuses carried out during the May 2021 Israeli aggression.
“Facebook has suppressed content posted by Palestinians and their supporters speaking out about human rights issues in Israel and Palestine,” said Deborah Brown, senior digital rights researcher and advocate at HRW. “With the space for such advocacy under threat in many parts of the world, Facebook censorship threatens to restrict a critical platform for learning and engaging on these issues.”
According to the HRW report, several posts were also removed by Instagram, the American photo and video sharing social networking service that was recently acquired by Facebook.
“In one instance, Instagram removed a screenshot of headlines and photos from three New York Times opinion articles for which the Instagram user added commentary that urged Palestinians to ‘never concede’ their rights,” the report reads.
HRW also condemned Facebook policy to designate certain organizations as ‘dangerous’, thus limiting the freedom of expression.
“Facebook relies on the list of organizations that the US has designated as a ‘foreign terrorist organization,’ among other lists,” HRW report said. “That list includes political movements that also have armed wings, such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and Hamas.”
“By deferring to the broad and sweeping US designations, Facebook prohibits leaders, founders, or prominent members of major Palestinian political movements from using its platform. It does this even though, as far as is publicly known, US law does not prohibit groups on the list from using free and freely available platforms like Facebook.”
In its report, HRW called for an “independent audit .. (to) evaluate Facebook’s relationship with the Israeli government’s Cyber Unit, which creates a parallel enforcement system for the government to seek to censor content without official legal orders.”
The California-based social media giant did not provide exhaustive explanations to justify its behavior, according to HRW.
“Facebook has acknowledged several issues affecting Palestinians and their content, some of which it attributed to ‘technical glitches’and human error. However, these explanations do not explain the range of restrictions and suppression of content observed.”
The NGO ultimately asked for an independent investigation and urged Facebook to ensure “that investigators closely consult with civil society at the outset of the investigation, so that (it) reflects the most pressing human rights concerns from those affected by its policies.”
Last April, HRW issued a report, titled ‘A Threshold Crossed: Israeli Authorities and the Crimes of Apartheid and Persecution’, concluding that Israel is committing the crime of “apartheid” by seeking to maintain Jewish “domination” over Palestinians and its own Arab population.
alia however, was a centrepiece to Paris’s strategy for European ‘strategic autonomy’. Macron believed France and the EU had established a position of lasting influence in the heart of the Indo-Pacific. Better still, it had out-manoeuvred Britain, and broken into the Anglophone world of the Five Eyes to become a privileged defence partner of Australia. Biden dissed that. And Commission President von der Leyen told CNN that there could not be “business as usual” after the EU was blindsided by AUKUS.
One factor for the UK being chosen as the ‘Indo-Pacific partner’ very probably was Trump’s successful suasion with ‘Bojo’ Johnson to abandon the Cameron-Osborne outreach to China; whereas the big three EU powers were perceived in the US security world as ambivalent towards China, at best. The UK really did cut links. The grease finally was Brexit, which opened the window for strategic options – which otherwise would have been impossible to the UK.
There may be a heavy price to pay though further down the line – the US security establishment are really pushing the Taiwan ‘envelope’ to the limit (possibly to weaken the CCP). It is extremely high risk. China may decide ‘enough is enough’, and crush the AUKUS maritime venture, which it can do.
The second ‘leg’ to this global inflection point – also triggered around the Afghan pivot into the Russo-Chines axis – was the SCO summit last month. A memorandum of understanding was approved that would tie together China’s Belt and Road Initiative to the Eurasian Economic Community, within the overall structure of the SCO, whilst adding a deeper military dimension to the expanded SCO structure.
Significantly, President Xi spoke separately to members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (of which China is not a part), to outline its prospective military integration too, into the SCO military structures. Iran was made a full member, and it and Pakistan (already a member), were elevated into prime Eurasian roles. In sum, all Eurasian integration paths combined into a new trade, resource – and military block. It represents an evolving big-power, security architecture covering some 57% of the world’s population.
Having lifted Iran into full membership – Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt may also become SCO dialogue partners. This augurs well for a wider architecture that may subsume more of the Middle East. Already, Turkey after President Erdogan’s summit with President Putin at Sochi last week, gave clear indications of drifting towards Russia’s military complex – with major orders for Russian weaponry. Erdogan made clear in an interview with the US media that this included a further S400 air defence system, which almost certainly will result in American CAATSA sanctions on Turkey.
All of this faces the EU with a dilemma: Allies who cheered Biden’s ‘America is back’ slogan in January have found, eight months later, that ‘America First’ never went away. But rather, Biden paradoxically is delivering on the Trump agenda (continuity again!) – a truncated NATO (Trump mooted quitting it), and the possible US shunning of Germany as some candidate coalition partners edge toward exiting from the nuclear umbrella. The SPD still pays lip service to NATO, but the party is opposed to the 2% defence spending target (on which both Biden and Trump have insisted). Biden also delivered on the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Europeans may feel betrayed (though when has US policy ever been other than ‘America First’? It’s just the pretence which is gone). European grander aspirations at the global plane have been rudely disparaged by Washington. The Russia-China axis is in the driving seat in Central Asia – with its influence seeping down to Turkey and into the Middle East. The latter commands the lions’ share of world minerals, population – and, in the CTSO sphere, has the region most hungry and ripe for economic development.
The point here however, is the EU’s ‘DNA’. The EU was a project originally midwifed by the CIA, and is by treaty, tied to the security interests of NATO (i.e. the US). From the outset, the EU was constellated as the soft-power arm of the Washington Consensus, and the Euro deliberately was made outlier to the dollar sphere, to preclude competition with it (in line with the Washington Consensus doctrine). In 2002, an EU functionary (Robert Cooper) could envisage Europe as a new ‘liberal imperialism’. The ‘new’ was that Europe eschewed hard military power, in favour of the ‘soft’ power of its ‘vision’. Of course, Cooper’s assertion of the need for a ‘new kind of imperialism’ was not as ‘cuddly’ liberal – as presented. He advocated for ‘a new age of empire’, in which Western powers no longer would have to follow international law in their dealings with ‘old fashioned’ states; could use military force independently of the United Nations; and impose protectorates to replace regimes which ‘misgovern’.
This may have sounded quite laudable to the Euro-élites initially, but this soft-power European Leviathan was wholly underpinned by the unstated – but essential – assumption that America ‘had Europe’s back’. The first intimation of the collapse of this necessary pillar was Trump who spoke of Europe as a ‘rival’. Now the US flight from Kabul, and the AUKUS deal, hatched behind Europe’s back, unmissably reveals that the US does not at all have Europe’s back.
This is no semantic point. It is central to the EU concept. As just one example: when Mario Draghi was recently parachuted onto Italy as PM, he wagged his finger at the assembled Italian political parties: “Italy would be pro-European and North Atlanticist too”, he instructed them. This no longer makes sense in the light of recent events. So what is Europe? What does it mean to be ‘European’? All that needs to be thought through.
Europe today is caught between a rock and a hard place. Does it possess the energy (and the humility) to look itself in the mirror, and re-position itself diplomatically? It would require altering its address to both Russia and China, in the light of a Realpolitik analysis of its interests and capabilities.
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