Lebanese poll poses security problem

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Prothero in the National, here

"The decision to hold Lebanon’s parliamentary elections on a single day in early June will stretch the nation’s security and military forces beyond their ability to properly secure the country, leaving voters vulnerable to sectarian and political violence in the tense election environment, the military, intelligence and police services officials say. Security officials told the cabinet several months ago that Lebanon’s military commitments to a UN peacekeeping mission along the Israeli and Syrian borders require a huge portion of the country’s security forces and that both the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces lack the manpower to adequately maintain order during the elections, officials present at the briefing said....
Another military official described the problem as a simple “matter of arithmetic”.
“We have about 50,000 men in the [army],” he said. “Even assuming all of them are available for duty, we are required by a United Nation’s resolution to keep 18,000 soldiers alongside Unifil below the Litani River [along the Israeli border]. Another 12,000 are mandated for patrols along the Syrian border to stop weapons smuggling to the resistance. And securing Beirut on a normal day requires 8,000 men to be deployed. That leaves 12,000 soldiers to secure the entire country.”

None of the security or military officials interviewed could allow their names to be used criticising decisions of the civilian authorities. Spokespersons at both the interior and defence ministries refused to comment on the claims and pointed to a plan made public on May 5 by a working group of security and military officials to secure the voting process....

One intelligence official described the concern as “grave” and described how even minor incidents in a key polling area could change the outcome of what appears to be a close race with only a few key areas likely to decide the outcome.
“A single person with a pistol decides to fire some shots in the air near a polling station in Metn [a key district]. The Lebanese media is famous for being sectarian and hysterical, so let’s say pro-opposition television stations announce that government supporters are attacking voters in that area: if just 5,000 Armenian voters stay home because they hear it’s dangerous, that could change the election.”

“My opinion is that it will partly secure and safe, only in some hot districts like Ashrafia, Bashoura, Matn and maybe Batroun [will there be problems]. On the election day, I don’t think it will be out of hand, but the days after are going to be crucial, then we will see how things are going to drift.” Mr Exum said the anticipation of trouble in key districts should draw additional attention from the military, possibly at the expense of other areas..."

Posted by G, Z, & or B at 10:33 AM